MightyMouse

Kiwi, If a trader can consistantly make more than 15%,, then 15% sucks. If he can't even break even, then 15% would be awesome and is far more attainable than 300%. Most traders don't even break even so 15% would be awesome to most traders. If I were a new trader and I were told that 15% was awesome, I would probably reject it too. I, like almost all new traders, had unrealistic expectations when I began. I had no idea that it would be so difficult to simply break even. There are a lot of people on these forums who say they can multiply thier accounts but no one will back the claim up. When you do audit, the returns mysteriously shrink to nearly zero or less. Its funny how that happens.

Incidentally, the average return for a CTA with funds greater than 10k and less than 5 million for the last 12 months is 4.9%. That is directly taken from the Autumn Gold site that Nate posted. You can verify it yourself if you care to have a dose of reality. This is not the top 10, it is the average CTA listed on that site. CTAs that are this size do are most likely individual traders who went out on their own. Once again, if you are doing 15% you are doing great!

CTAs managing a few million are traders. A trader with maybe one assistant and an intern. Get registered with the CFTC, and you are a CTA. Look, my message is very simple. if you are earnning 15% or so, you do not suck as a trader. You are actually performing as good as some of the best. If you can average that consistantly you are one of the best. For a trader, especially a new trader, I couldn't think of a more positive statement to make. If you can demonstrate that you can consistantly earn better than, say, 15% a year, Goldman, Morgan, Citi, would pay you your weight in gold just to get you in the door. I suppose they have low standards. Sheesh you seem to struggle with facts.

Yutaka Futures Co., Ltd. - Octopus Program Article at StreetStories.com Zenith Resources, Inc. - Index Options Accounts Article at StreetStories.com Xenon Capital Management LLC - Xenon Diversified Article at StreetStories.com Witter & Lester, Inc. - Stock Index Program Article at StreetStories.com Winton Capital Management Ltd - Diversified Trading Program Article at StreetStories.com These are simply picked from the list starting at the top. Not cherry picking for the best or worst. Their average is probably somewhere in the teens. The guy Nate found is not the norm. Hopefully, you will see that I didn't just pluck a number out of thin air. Also, you have to believe that a list of CTAs is biased, since if a CTA consistently loses money, he will no longer have funds to manage and no longer be on that list Blowfish, making a lot of money trading is by no means easy. My point in saying that 15%is awesome is that most do not even make that. Most lose money, even though some make a lot more than. And, if you have a tradeable edge that consistently gives you profits, then what is the problem with discipline? it should be a no brainer.

!5% was a ball park average. This guy seems to be pretty good.He has done anywhere from 0% to 96% in that time period. He trades 70% discretionary. Nice

I think the best thing for you to do is to scan the returns of CTAs who manage money to understand where and how I am arriving at 15%. You might find that 15% is on the high side. If you choose to do so, look at their long run rate of return. CTAs are traders who have a track record of success. Verifiable enough to give funders the confidence to place their funds with them. In their case, all their claims are substantiated and regulated. I do not need to assume there is pie in the sky to want to trade, but that is just me. I do not have enough capital to trade for a living, if I did, then I would survive just fine. Before you hastily jump to conclusions, the amount of money one needs to " make a living" varies widely dependent on age, family status, life style, geographical location, etc, etc.

It appears that you have once again completely misinterpreted previous statements. No where did I say that earing 15% was the goal. Certainly you try to earn more than that, but if you end up at the end of a year with a 15% return, you have done better than most traders. Probably better than 99.9% of them. If you are expecting to on average double and triple your money every year, then, yes, my comment is negative. You may want to define exactly what you mean when you say "edge". When I say edge, I am referring to the way some use the term. A lot of people on these forums use the term edge to be synonymous with the edge a casino has. A casino's edge is the holy grail. If you think you have an edge like a casino does, then you think you have the holy grail. I do not know if someone has, in fact, fairly, attained an edge in trading like a casino has. Regarding trading profitably, I don't think it is possible, I know it is possible. Saying I know it is possible couldn't be more non-negative. I think what you might mean to say is that if you felt that you could not find an edge, then you wouldn't see the point of trading. It might be right and true for you, but It's not for me. Also, if you ended up the year with a 15% return, then it wouldn't be worth it for you. I went from break even to profitable when I stopped looking for the elusive edge. I am not trying to break even, but everyone else is welcome to.

Tams, you can get rid of your wife by trading? Is there a indicator for that?

Blowfish, Your point was that there is a school of thought that thinks you will be profitable if you do not second guess your trades; however, you do believe that most successful traders have learned to read the market. You also point out that you believe that most traders fail because they do not stick to a system. Did I get it right? Or perhaps you intended to convey something other than what you typed? Perhaps if you read what I typed instead of trying to figure out why I would ever want to trade, you would have seen that I simply made comments on the points you made. IMO, the forum threads are so much more pleasant to read when there are no personal attacks or attempts to defame. Trading is not betting. It may have a similar look and feel, but it is not the same duck as betting. Mathematically, yes, you should walk into a casino and plop all your money on red or black or pass or don't pass, etc, and you will then have your greatest chance of walking out with the most money. In a casino, there are predefined odds, and a predefined house edge. The house edge will whittle your money away, no matter how small it is. In trading, there are no predefined odds or edges. You do not know, and cannot know, before you take a trade whether or not you have the "edge" this time or what the payout is going to be. That changes the game tremendously. You can certainly try to read into my statements, again, and wrongly conclude that I do not think you can make money trading. MM

The additional decisions or rules may make you feel better, but in the end, you'll probably find that the additional rules you add to the entry and exit will keep you out of winning trades that you would have taken when you were "dumber" and still get you into losing trades anyway. I am speaking completely from experience.

Blowfish, If either school of thought were right, then the market would be totally predictable which it is not. If you could find a system that you can trade that would give you an edge like a casino, then you would have stumbled upon the holy grail. If you could tell when your set up wasn't going to work, and only take the trades when they were going to work, then you are the holy grail. Most people don't fail at trading, they simply can't make enough money to sustain themselves because they do not have enough capital. They tend to stop after a losing streak and possibly quit when they are down, but if they had quit when they were up by an equal amount, it would still be best to quit since the amount they made ( instead of lost ) wouldn't have amounted to much. The main reason most people stop trading is, simply, because they run out of time.

I guess anytime is a good time for a shameless plug.

It's a lot nicer looking than mine.

Attila, FWIW, look at your avg time in a trade. The the next time you have a trade set up, take your trade set up with 2, put in your stop and target, and take a walk for exactly 2 x your avg time in a trade. And in time, increase the time you take a walk. Your anxiety will dissapate even if you get stopped out. You will quickly be able to sit there and follow the rules of your plan without the desire to botch it up. Regards, MM

Admittedly, I enjoy being disagreed with. He is claiming to have netted 150k, quadrupling his account, doing so by taking small initial risks, never having a losing month, and is pretty new to trading. If he did do it, then he should at least consider, since he is so new, that is was the result of extraordinary circumstances, but it seems to me that he wants us to believe that he walks on water. He does tell you that he is successful, but all he tells you about how he does it is that what most other traders are doing is completely wrong and by inference he is right. So, it seems to me that his post wasn't about helping you or me but was more about making you feel badly about what you are doing and making you want to wish you were as smart as him or something like that. Personally, I can't stand when people do that. MM

So there are no aboslute truths and but there are people who walk on water? What exactly do you disagree with that I posted if you do not agree with the main jist of his post? Or, do you simply want to disagree with me?

Daedalus, Sounds like a a guy who thinks he can walk on water. He appeals to the trader's sense of insecurity. However, he's just another trader who apparently claims to have had a good year. Always a sceptic. MM

What a thread! I couldn't decide if the stimulant was crack, meth, or adderall. It sees like it ended and I will never know.

Mark, Congrats on it only taking you 18 months. Most of us here are too stupid or in denial or delusional. You haven't given up, you've learned. This is at best a hobby for most. And, if you need to support a family, then you probably can't dedicate a lot of time to your hobbies. To make a living doing this requires a great deal of capital. It is no different from running any other type of business. Everyone and anyone who tells you that you can make a living trading with a small account either lives in a paper bag and has very little expenses or is completely full of shit. Gloss over the ego driven responses. No one will back up their statements with anything substantial. Good Luck, MM

What do you do when it stops being above 50% or 65% and how much time will you give it to determine if the odds are no longer in your favor?

How did you get the odds in your favor? Insider trading?

Oh wow awesome. I am glad there people like Dave around to take the guess work out of trading. Thanks Dave Tonsley for selflessly posting that expert newsletter.

There are support groups for traders who need help coping with long periods of closed markets.

I am not confused a single bit. I used annual compounding for simplicity. I ball parked the time it would take to get returns equal to the return that a good traded ends up with. I arbitrarily chose 15%. I could have chosen 20 or 12 percent. Each would have been a good rate of return. I suppose someone could achieve 15% a day if that is what you are suggesting. That person would be the master of the universe. I think a lot of the confusion from my statements comes from people thinking that a trader sets out to earn 15%. Which no one here living the traders dream would consider a decent return for the year. I simply think differently. No one sets out to earn 15%, each CTA would love to come in at the top of the pack, because the notoriety would bring in a lot more money and they get paid on performance. But that is just not possible and the good ones end up averaging somewhere around 15%. In October i Will have 1 full year of real time live data to know exactly how much of an edge I have. I know now, however, that It makes no where near the continually compounded rate that one would need to turn 5k into a million in a year. The fact that I will not have a 5 or 6 digit return at the end of the year does not concern me in the slightest. More is always better, but at this point i am happy taking money from the markets. I think the greatest source of confusion here is confusing what is possible with what is probable. It is completely possible to turn 5k into 1 million in a year. I simply would not do the things I would have to do to try to achieve that type of result. I am sure I stated this somewhere in the beginning of this thread. I tried this a few times a while back and I believe I posted something to that effect on TL a while back. One of the times I was "1 trade away" from the million. I ended up losing a great deal of the account. If you want to get a different perspecitve on taxation, have a really good year and a really bad year trading without being set up properly. Another time I didn't get quite as high, but did go bust. I am not suggesting that it cannot be done because I could not do it. I am here watching because I do believe it can be done, and would like to see someone do it. The only difference between someone who did do it and me was 1 or 2 trades.

I was referring to an avg annual return. So, 20%, could be avg of a 25% loss and a 65% gain over 2 years or a 55% gain in the first year and 10% loss in the second year and so on. I didn't suggest that you should stop trading when you hit some predetermined goal, though I suppose you can do that too.