MightyMouse

Still short and live and underwater. Hopefully, my friends across the ocean will trade with heavy boots on.

Steve, You should ask your institutional employer to give you a better connection. Gee I hope he's not making you use wireless. That would be conscious incompetence, but it wouldn't be your fault. Ha ha ha. I love the color you add to this site. MM

You could always stick to options and create synthetic futures contract if you are feeling frisky and want add risk to the mix and reduce the cost of time.

I would argue that the 4 categories are harder to apply to trading than other pursuits. Its difficult to measure competence in trading because its not really something that you can break down into steps and evaluate, practice and perfect. In tennis, for example, a player with a ranking of a 4.5 has mastered the following: "Starting to master the use of power and spins and beginning to handle pace, has sound footwork, can control depth of shots and is beginning to vary game plan according to opponents. Can hit first serves with power and accuracy and place the second serve. Tends to overhit on difficult shots. Aggressive net play is common in doubles." You can take a soda can and place it on the other side of the a tennis net and get a carriage of balls try to hit the can with a serve and eventually you will hit it and then you will begin to hit it more and more times in a row. This is possible because you are dealing with a set of natural variables, wind, distance, arc, etc which are much easier to estimate and develop a mechanical system to get the get the ball to the can on a consistent basis. If you were to see a 4.5 play a 6.0 you would be able to observe that the 6.0 is a much better player even if you know nothing about tennis. There is probably a 1 in 300 chance that a 4.5 can beat a 6.0. I am guessing at this. I was a 4.5 and played 6.0's and there was just no way for me to win. great experience and it does help you get to better levels but even tying them requires you to get to their level. Any On the other hand, in trading, the mechanics are not quite that clear and there is no measurement system or method of practicing that can allow you to achieve expert level the way you can in other pursuits. I think the only way you become an expert in trading is when you decide to call yourself an expert which to me means we are all experts or none of us are experts. One of my trades that I do takes advantage of when traders get "stubborn and stuck". While I am, say, long and we are near a high for the day and I am observing the T&S, I see both large and small orders entering the market and then exiting the market and price continues higher. Obviously, I do not know if they are they exact same traders, but the fact that the market is pushing higher is indicative to me that traders are getting stopped out of trades.The activity is a series of trades by traders trying to push price back down to get out of shorts and traders trying to push price up trying to find the stops of the shorts who are underwater. They continue to short and provide stops to propel the market higher. These short traders "know" that resistance should hold or that there is supply up here and are not detecting that price wants to move up.. Large traders can enter trades in small orders but small traders do not enter trades in large orders. If it were all inexperienced traders who are taking the losses, you would expect to see streams of small orders and very few large blocks going through. That is not the case.You do see lots of small orders, but at the same time there are many very large orders as well going through. In this scenario, you have institutional size trades losing and acting exactly like amateurs who trade small size. So, you will find "experts" acting as amateurs and losing to amateurs in the market, but you do not find experts losing to amateurs in tennis. If the institutional traders who destroyed our financial system and brought the USA to the brink were "expert" traders it wouldn't have happened. MM

Yes it does and for that reason I only trade ES longer term and I enter with stops. In fact, I am short as we speak at 1322.5 and I am underwater a little. I am hoping we work our way below 1300. I'll start adding to it at 1301 and will add further below and I'll accelerate the adds if the 1300 area acts as resistance. At the moment, my planned stop is currently 3475 and I might reverse there too but that depends on what it looks like then. It developed that nice range in the 20's and 30's that looks to me like we are either going to push through the bottom or blow through the top of it. The direction looks like it is currently down in spite of the late day pullback so I am playing it short and will continue to play it short until it looks like the direction turns from down to up. I will get slapped twice if we get stuck in this range. This is not a set it and forget it trade so whether any of the above pans out depends on what develops next and has less to do with past action. So, I might have to get out with a small profit without adding or, obviously, I might get stopped out. these trades work maybe 3-4 out of 10 times. So, it's more likely to fail than succeed but that's life. I am not going to be able to give a real time blow by blow but I will say when I get out or if I am able to add. I do not make decisions based on fear and greed is sort of built into it if supply keeps coming in. Anyhow in the meantime I need it to get green and since it is underwater it is a good trade for newer traders to watch unfold as a win or a loss without it being an after the fact already in the money trade. I wasn't going to post it since it quickly went profitable when I entered and do not like to post that I am in a winning trade when it is already in the money. Traders with ego issues always seem to be able to take a short a few ticks from the high and also seem to tell you they are short when the trade is 5-6 points in the money. Funny how that happens and funny how they never take losses. Personally, I do not care if I take a loss or if anyone knows I took a loss. I think its important to learn how to lose since trading involves lots and lots of losses. I certainly do not want to lose and will be pissed off if I do lose. The amount of risk I took on this trade is more than I would normally take on an ES trade, but I killed it in oil today and when I do have a good day, I am allowed to take a trade with added dollar risk. Since I am in this trade, I won't trade anything else until I am out of this and it will suck for me if oil moves 3 dollars on Monday. Possibly TMI Regards, MM

This thread is dedicated to trading short term trades in the Emini S&P 500 contract. My definition of short term is any trade lasting more than a day and generally not longer than 10 days. Many types of swing trading strategies will fit here. I have a couple of rules for posting that should help keep it nice and clean. 1. Since these trades allow more time for decision making, if you would like to post your trade, please post where you intend to get in and out before the fact. So, if you are going to post that you got into a short at 1320 when the market is already at 1315, and then please refrain from posting it here. If you want to post that you intend to get short at 1320 when the market is at 1315, then that is fine. If you entered at 1315 short and the market is at 1320 and you are short, then you can post it. 2. You can make any comment you like, but make sure that it is before the fact information. So, if you think that someone should have gotten out at point B because you are brilliant and you knew it was going to turn there, please refrain from posting. On the other hand, if you know it is going to turn at point B and we have not arrived at point B yet, then please share. 3. If you had an order that you say you had in that should have gotten filled and last minute you mysteriously and miraculously decided to pull it and did not post that you were pulling it, you will get called on it. 4. If you post a chart of what you did, you can do so, but only if you indicated what you were going to do before the recorded events on the chart occurred. 5. Lastly, I reserve the right to break your stones if you try to post after-the-fact information and you have to right to break my stones if I were to post after-the-fact information. Let’s keep it real. I am a discretionary trader and use the dom, T&S, price, volume, and time as my indicators. I am trading live and I generally enter with stop orders. So, there is a certainty if I say that I am getting in at point A and point A is touched then I am in. The same is true on my exits. However, I do exit at market a lot to conserve a profit. I believe that 95% of the work is done after you enter a trade, not before. Each of the trades I do, I start with a small position and intend on building the position but I do not always have the chance to do so. I only intend on trading ES on this thread, but might trade something else later on. You do not have to trade ES only, but I ask you all to try to keep it to short term trades as I have defined above. My hope with this thread is to give newer traders the experience of the ups and downs and decisions that real traders make during the course of the day, week and month. It is important to know how to win and it is equally important to know how to lose. When I began, I struggled with the idea of losses and thought that I was doing something wrong when I lost. The “traders” I knew pretended to have minimal losses and always seemed to catch the turn 1 tick from the high or low. I think the experience of seeing real traders both win and lose when I started trading would have been tremendously helpful to me. Lastly, I do not intend to teach anyone anything about how or where to enter. I am posting so that you get the experience of trading. Best of Luck, Mighty Mouse ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yes it does and for that reason I only trade ES longer term and I enter with stops. In fact, I am short as we speak at 1322.5 and I am underwater a little. I am hoping we work our way below 1300. I'll start adding to it at 1301 and will add further below and I'll accelerate the adds if the 1300 area acts as resistance. At the moment, my planned stop is currently 3475 and I might reverse there too but that depends on what it looks like then. It developed that nice range in the 20's and 30's that looks to me like we are either going to push through the bottom or blow through the top of it. The direction looks like it is currently down in spite of the late day pullback so I am playing it short and will continue to play it short until it looks like the direction turns from down to up. I will get slapped twice if we get stuck in this range. This is not a set it and forget it trade so whether any of the above pans out depends on what develops next and has less to do with past action. So, I might have to get out with a small profit without adding or, obviously, I might get stopped out. these trades work maybe 3-4 out of 10 times. So, it's more likely to fail than succeed but that's life. I am not going to be able to give a real time blow by blow but I will say when I get out or if I am able to add. I do not make decisions based on fear and greed is sort of built into it if supply keeps coming in. Anyhow in the meantime I need it to get green and since it is underwater it is a good trade for newer traders to watch unfold as a win or a loss without it being an after the fact already in the money trade. I wasn't going to post it since it quickly went profitable when I entered and do not like to post that I am in a winning trade when it is already in the money. Traders with ego issues always seem to be able to take a short a few ticks from the high and also seem to tell you they are short when the trade is 5-6 points in the money. Funny how that happens and funny how they never take losses. Personally, I do not care if I take a loss or if anyone knows I took a loss. I think its important to learn how to lose since trading involves lots and lots of losses. I certainly do not want to lose and will be pissed off if I do lose. The amount of risk I took on this trade is more than I would normally take on an ES trade, but I killed it in oil today and when I do have a good day, I am allowed to take a trade with added dollar risk. Since I am in this trade, I won't trade anything else until I am out of this and it will suck for me if oil moves 3 dollars on Monday. Possibly TMI Regards, MM

Emg, Could you please post the whole link? the one you posted does not open properly. MM

If you liked Mighty Mouse, you probably liked Courageous Cat and Minute Mouse too. Great cartoons. I think a lot of guys who have rooms learn that day trading is a grind and hard to make a lot of money if you do not have enough capital. In fact, it's hard to make a lot of money if you do have enough capital. They also love the market so much that they cannot bare to leave it. So, rather than switch careers and un-wire themselves from the market, they sell trade calls, room subscriptions, courses, etc. to earn income because everyone needs income. I do not think there is a thing wrong with someone with experience charging a fee to someone with no or less experience to learn. The problem, as I perceive it, of a lot of these rooms and services, is the lack of honesty. Each seems to be afraid of sharing the true results of his trades, and engages in lies that many detect, but many also deny because they want to believe. The most important lesson a new trader can learn and experienced traders also struggle with is how to lose and the need to lose. If you run a room and you create the illusion that you always win, then you are doing a great disservice to new traders. MM

Well, my comments would only be guesses at why you are torturing yourself. The inability to enter a 100 share trade seems like someone who should be doing something else that he find is easier, less painful, more profitable to do.

A great book is " Richest Man in Babylon". Addresses the really important need of how to hold accumulate wealth.

Jay, I have to ask. Why are you torturing yourself? Why do you have to do this? MM

Siuya, Nice of you to make a comment after a long day of fighting black marlin off the Great Coral Reef. If I had your money I would throw mine away. I do give these guys lots of credit. Earning double digit returns for the period of time that they have been able to do it is iconic. No doubt. MM

Cory, I am sure that his A, B, or C funds have objectives that are quite different from each other and will, therefore have differing returns. I think 25% profit is great, but you need a boat load of capital to survive on a return like that if you are an independent trader. The BVI fund ended up getting split and I am not sure what ended up happening to it. So, it will be difficult to say what ended up happening to that fund. I think the investments may have been toxic but again I am not sure. My point was that these high profile traders all have the same ups and downs that we do if they are not breaking rules and end up being billionaires because of the fees the collect and not from shear ror. They pay lots of money to PR firms, sponsor charities, etc to gain exposure to persons who can drive money to their firms. Its a different game for them since they participate on the upside, but do not participate on the downside. MM

Managed Futures Performance Rankings | Managed Futures I do not know if these are all his funds.

I have to disagree. The countless millionaires at the HFs banks, and brokerages, make money collecting fees, selling, and transacting business. The traders who do not trade with inside information or other illegal activity or soon to be illegal activity, such as the activity of hfts, have the same ups and downs that as any other trader who trades a similar time-frame as they do. The use of non public information is so common that it doesn't seem illegal anymore. If you take Paul tudor jones, for example, he spends and has spent a great deal of time promoting himself and his business so that he could attract funds. He had some great early years, I suppose, and many many mediocre and losing years. If he had to rely on his trading, he would live in a duplex instead of a mansion on the water in Greenwich CT. George soros is another great example. He too is a publicity seeking socialite who understands that he needs to attract money to his fund to make money. He has maybe done 10 great trades in his lifetime that made a great deal of money. His long run returns are good but not what you might think. In either of these cases, you would be hard pressed to prove that they did better than the S&P did over the same period. The main difference is that if you traded the s&p during the same period, you didn't get 20% of the winning years like they did. I am not suggesting that some of these guys do not not have good runs, but the good runs, at best, taper off in most cases. If you take a population of, say, 10,000 traders, 4-5 statistically will kick ass. Aspiring traders will look at those 4-5 traders in awe. The fact is that those 4-5 traders will tell you how great and smart they are, but one should realize that those 4-5 traders had to happen statistically. Wall St will throw all kinds of money at these 4-5 guys because its easy to bullshit a bullshitter. The final table at the WSOP is a great example of statistics at work. In fact, a lot of times those remaining poker players are the most degenerate gamblers of the group. Wall St is and will always be a center where people who need capital will get it from people who have capital. That is its main purpose. MM

Spy's are cleaner in the set it and forget it sense, but you'll never beat the leverage that es or the big sp will provide you if you have enough equity to carry overnight. Hell, if you were fortunate to catch the low in march 2009 and add and add and add and add you'd be pretty well off. That is the type of trading that some of the legends in "Market Wizards" did.

Scam might be a strong word. If the system merely took, say, last years data, mined it, and coded the best curve for it, then, yes, you bought junk. But if a system is designed to trade a trend or trade a range, then you might have a decent tool. If someone is looking for magic, then they get what they deserve.

If you want to trade them long term, then buy spy and hold. You'll get dividends ant not have to incur transaction costs since there is no roll. Zero sum is actually negative sum when you take into account transaction costs that are seen and unseen.

You need to hire engineers. They know how to figure out everything.

Bravisimo! Great advice from a guy who was read every book and used every single sort of moving average known to man. After all that, he decided to take responsibility for his own actions.

AHHH, both you and I Jay, are Ok!

You have a system that works in any timeframe and works on an heavily traded currency or index. I wasn't being rude or trying to upset you, I was just referring to it as it should be referred to: the Holy Grail. The ark of the covenant? I always wondered at the end of "Indiana Jones" where that holy grail was taken to. Now I know.

I have lost money consistently with strategies that are profitable. I, in fact, dumped a nice sum in the month of March. I will take the trade that lost me money 1000 if not 10,000 more times. I will admit that I am pretty pissed off that I lost, but not fearful to take the trade again and certainly not paranoid. Fear is a natural human emotion when you are in danger. If fear is real in trading and it can't be removed, then explain to me what the danger is?

Fear in trading is an illusion. It is your own personal manifestation of social, religious, personal beliefs that you have developed. None of which has anything to do with the market. If you have learned to defeat fear in other parts of your life, then you can defeat it in trading. If you are afraid to lose money, take a stack of cash and light it on fire. To do so is to show yourself that you do not give a shit if you lose money. Whatever it is, face it and it will soon vanish. If you protect it, it will stay or grow stronger.

I saw this movie. Didn't Harrison Ford star in it? Yeah, that was it. The special effects were great for the period. Maybe you should update your special effects too. At this stage in my life my needs are slightly different than most. If I signed up for your service, would I be able to exchange the profits for eternal salvation? That would appeal to me. Please p.m. me if that is possible.