MightyMouse

I love it! If anyone recalls my diatribe about luck in the market on other threads, today is a perfect example. Today is an example. My sell stop order to get short is at 1310.50. if one more large market order came in when it was trading down at 1310.75, I would be short and about 6 pts underwater with a stop about 2 pts away. But the order did not come in and my order still sits there and I am under no heat. This is a perfect example of how luck worked in my favor. I am lucky to not have a position that is underwater. It didn't make me money, but it didn't lose me money either.

Everyone has done that. I certainly have, but i don't now. In my mind it is akin to playing rags when you on a streak in poker or playing on tilt after a big loss.

The long is off the table for the time being. I will not be getting long where i previously stated. I will continue to try to get in short. It missed me, thankfully, at 10.50, but I will still take it there when or if it gets there.

The plan is to buy 20.75 with a stop or sell 10.50 with a stop. I will do this with less contracts than I did last Friday since I do not have a monster win to piggy back off of. Initial stops are 34 ticks from entry and can change to a max of 64.

If we stay below 1321, I plan on going short with a sell stop at 1310.50. As the market moves and jockeys, I will adjust that entry or get rid of it, but will post beforehand. And at this point it was a good move to get out. Nothing is worse than getting out of a short at the high tick. It stomps the ego a bit. Not that that is a bad thing, but it does feel better when it goes past your exit by at least a little bit.

More is better but some is better than none. We gauge as best we can the risk of staying in a trade. The way I see it: I could get out for all the wrong reasons and it ends up being the right decision. I could stay in for all the right reasons and it ends up being the wrong decision. Or, obviously, I could be right for staying in or right for getting out. unfortunately, I have to wait to learn which of the above it was, but the important thing is to know which it was and not that I am always right. Mercy, it is the probing of the unknown that keeps us drawn to the markets like moths to a light.

I am out because, given the conditions of supply and demand, I believe that there are too many trapped shorts from below. So, my thinking is that it can go a lot higher than this and possibly have enough demand to reverse the down move. So, I gave it 8 points plus 1 tick of room to survive and it didn't. Why the high? I do not let that matter. When I need to be out, I need to be out.I gave it the max i could give it and it so happened to be the high. My survival in a trade and mental survival depends on event A and event B. If A occurs I stay in. If B occurs I get out. This time B occurred first. When either happens I need to execute. Failure to execute, in the long run, leads to bad things. I put a few coins in my pocket. It didn't work out the way I hoped, but why would my hope ever matter? In spite of the fact that I am out, I still see the direction as down. At risk of reversing, but down. If it does stay below 1321 or so I will likely get back in short on a sell stop. It will all depend on how high it goes above where we are now. Thanks for asking.

Out. It was a fun ride. Took 7 points per contract on the trade.

I am moving my stop to in the overnight to 1315.5. If my add were to get hit before my stop, I would move my stop to 1317 otherwise I am out at 1315.5. The direction is still down. If I get stopped out, I will probably try to short again on a push down as long as we stay below about 1321. If we get above that, I am going to want to get long.

oh well. Wrong again. I am still short, in the money and will try to ride this for what it is worth. Nothing has changed. If it gets to 1300.75 I am adding.

I hear "O Fortuna" again. Looks like lots of supply here to take us lower.

I think we refueled with some more supply. It might be premature to say it, but a break below 1307 from here and we should have enough supply to take this to a new low for the day. Bottom fishers beware. The opposite is as true as the above. If we break above the 2 pt range we have developed here, those who have been selling on the inside may panic and exit which will be bad for the late shorts, mostly, but bad for all shorts including me. The 2 pt range seems to be 7.25 to 9.25. We should get some action when we get out of this range. I am short and will remain short.

Volume is picking up a bit too. So, the move seems to be gaining good legs. With good volume on the downside it makes it less likely that this is a trap. If we do reverse the down move and it is on low volume, I will stay in until my stop is hit at 1322.50.

Stop is now BE at 1322.5. I plan to add 1 contract at 1300.75 and more below. If or when I get the add, my stop will go to 1317. I may exit if a bear trap is set. At this point the exit would be about 1314.75. If I do not detect a trap, I will stay in until I get stopped out at BE. Did I mention that I love trading? Hopefully, no one is trying to catch the knife.

That is clearly Wall St and the CEO's of the major investment banks. Look closely in the crack. You'll see the shadow cast from the Goldman Sacks mouse. Safe and sound.

when we get near the low, I hear the typany drums from the intro of " O Fortuna", but then they stop as we move back up. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhG-d_YnhhU]YouTube - Ysgol Glanaethwy: O Fortuna - Last Choir Standing Final - BBC One[/ame]

If or when we hit 1306.5, my stop gets moved to BE and the rest of the trade is either a gain or BE. I will be adding 1 at 1300.75, 1296.75, 1293.50. There will be more adds below that, but pointless at this moment to post those if I do not get the 1306.5 zen.

Stop is 1324.75. Direction is solidly down.The move down is low volume so I will be getting out if it reverses on high volume. But, staying short since the move is still down.

a large number of traders lose because they over trade. They do not stay in a winning trade long enough and they stay in a losing trade too long. Amatuers and pros are guilty of the same crime.

An edge is one's ability to take money from the market. It's not a magic chart pattern or some mathematical calculation that you and only you seem to know. That is nonsense even though popular trading literature makes it sound like an edge is some sort of repeatable pattern.. Ultimately, you need to be able to properly identify when there are traders present in the market who will are willing to leave some money behind in the market and you have to be good enough to have some of it land in your account. If they are not present and/or you are not good enough, you will not take and, worse, you will end up leaving money. MM

Stop is moved to 1325.25. If we move lower in the overnight, I will move the stop. I will either get out at the stop and not reverse or I plan on adding when we hit 1300.75.

Still short. Basically unchanged from my entry. Oil is, of course, moving like an animal and I am missing out. I won't be reversing at my stop I need to see good volume come in as we press to the low. If I do not see higher volume come in, I will exit as soon as there is a change in direction. Without going lower than the current low of 1320.50, my stop will be at about 1328..75. If we press below the low set on Friday, the stop will be different.

Nothing has changed from my perspective. No reason to get out, the direction remains down. This is by no means a day trade, so I am probably posting in the wrong place.

Wow! If I wanted to, could I sign up and, unlike you, could I actually be in the trading room every day including holidays? I don't think I would sign up for anything unless they let me trade on holidays and weekends. Let me know. You have whetted my appetite with your commercial.

Thank you for reposting.