MightyMouse

I really hope we have the power hour so I can get out of this. I would be incredibly happy if we got over 1350. I am probably biased but I think we should push above the current high so that some of these accumulated longs can sell into the buy stops.

ha ha. no. The move in es from 1310 to where it is. If the comment coincided with a move in CL that is plain awesome but I had no idea it would move. A 30 point move which is 120 ticks took a week in es, but it takes no time in CL. Cl can do 120 ticks in minutes as I am sure you are completely aware. Cl is very much like ES in the sense that there is a London or European move, and then a move starting around 830 est, and then maybe a move at the end of the pit session starting after lunch and stopping usually at 2:30. Sometimes the petroleum report moves it. Moves are usually around 100 to 150 ticks and then profit taking. Usually, not always though.

stop is off 38 and is now at 1334. It is going to suck if this doesn't go back. My stop being movedf to 1334 is part of the plan and not an emotional decision. If condsitions change i will move the stop back to 1338, but in no way will it go lower than 1334 now. If it does go up, I am adding at 1347 and again at 1349.75 and will get out by the end of the day if I get those fills.

Shorting the high is always a great idea on an up move or trend day.

if we don't go higher than 1346.25, i am bailing at 1338 unless something changes.

Normally, I trade CL in a similar fashion and the move that has occurred from 1310 to here usually happens in about 30 minutes or so. My experience with these trades as the adds increase the profit and the stop gets moved up, is that pressure builds in your head as you have more and more of a profit to lose. You have to experience it to understand it fully. In CL it is so fast sometimes when the adds come on that I literally find myself not breathing at that point I hit market order to get out. Es is slow so I do not see the need for the panicked exit yet, but I do feel the pressure building as we move up. I am hoping I can remain rational. At this pont, if we do not go above 1344.25 and we hit 1336, I am out of all.

BE stop is at 1327.75. I do not plan on BE, but that is the worst I will do. If we go up further I am adding at 1347. If something develops, I may bail sooner than 1327.75.

Feeling good? Yes! Winning? Yes!

Stop is moved back to 1323.75. If i get filled at 1343.75, I'll move my stop to 1327.75. I move the stop when i think there is a high risk of me being trapped in the wrong direction. Whether it is right or wrong, it makes me feel good.

Adding at 43.75 next if it continues to go higher. If we do not go higher than 40.25, i will likely bail out of all at 1332 if conditions remain the same. I love trading!

Lucky Lucky Lucky. My stop is back to 1318.25 and I will move it up to 1323.75 if I get another add filled at 1339.75. I survived being stopped out purely by luck. All that had to happen for me to get taken out at 1327 was to have one more very large institutional market order execute and push prices down when price was at 1327.25. But, it didn't happen. My safety stop at 1327 was not randomly placed there, but it is random luck that I did not get taken out there. Whatever you do, do not mistake the stop at 1327 as some stroke of brilliance, because I assure you it wasn't. It could all backfire today, or maybe not. But in order to get a larger gain you have to risk losing the small gain. No pain no gain.

What is disgusting more now than ever, is that if you retire and your home is paid, cars are paid, and you have $1,000,000 in liquid assets that you need to use as income, you can only earn about 3.5% safely on the money which means that you have 35k of income. SS will give you, if married somewhere around 2500, so between ss and your interest income you will be making around 60k in retirement. Keep in mind that when you are retired, you are not working so you cannot invest aggressively because you cannot replace the capital if you lose it and you need the capital to generate income. You do not need it next year, you need it now. If you live in the new york metro area, your home is probably still worth about 500k or higher so you have a total net worth of 1.5 million, but you pay about 10k in taxes on your house so your net income is about 45k. You retire a millionaire and you live like a peasant. Most don't try to make the money last. Its part of my business and I assure you that not many people retire with the million to begin with and they quickly go through their assets and are broke in about 5-7 years. It is pretty sad. These guys where successful executives and are broke before they are 75. Its also difficult to gauge what costs are going to be. Costs generally triple every 20 years, the fed tries to make them double but misses by a little. In addition, we do not know what technologies we are going to have in the future that we are going to want to have or need to pay for. A person retiring in 1980 did not have a cell phone or cable TV and the internet. Cable TV, internet and a cell phone cost about $300 a month. We can hardly imagine living without them now. But thank god that an Ipad2 is relatively less expensive. The people who I deal with who do enjoy retirement have ongoing family businesses. You need to have good relationships with your children and they need to want to be in the business and you need to trust that they are capable of operating the business. Technically, these people never retire, they sort of just slow down and take long vacations and then get sick and die. Its not too likely that a corporation will let you do that. Large corporations do not tolerate the aged.

The moves are a lot faster in zs. tick size is exactly the same as es, zw, or 6e. Whether its fiercer or not is all relative.

Hopefully, at this point I am safe. However, i will still bail at 1327.

I don't expect to survive this move down. I will let it take me out at 1327.

It seems like you know a lot about es and given what you know about es, you should be able to take that knowledge and trade it. If it means that the best you can do is not trade it, then so be it. That would be very valuable information.

Wow! Out of curiosity, which camp are you in? the intelligent or the hit and miss?

I do not use highs or lows of days or weeks as entry or exit signals. They certainly are curious monuments and they do get reactions, but they do not cause me to react. At times they work and I give some up and other times they accelerate the direction of my trade. Additionally, I am doing everything i can to stay in this trade, not get out of it.

Will exit all if we do not go above 1335.25 and touch 1327.

I am leaving my order in at 3975 for an add. I somehow doubt it will get there before the European open if it gets there at all. Currently if we do not move above 1334.50, which is the current high, I will get out of all positions at 1326.25. If we do move above it, I will trail it up by 33 ticks until we hit 1337 At that point. I will put the stop back at 1318.25. And see what develops next

MMS, You are forgetting that the IPAD 2 is twice the computer at the same cost as the IPAD. So not everything is going up in price. For Fed's Dudley, iPad comment falls flat in Queens | Reuters MM

In this very specific instance, yes. It is not a general rule. Fading the delta at times can kill you. The passive traders do not always win. Those traders are the fib traders who frequently get caught catching the knife, seeking low or high tick nirvana. Delta is a tool. Its not an all in one tool. At times it is useful at other times, like my earlier post, it is not very useful or simply doesn't help you at the moment. MM

The US would never try to do that. That would be irresponsible. However, they will try to export our fiscal irresponsibility to other greedy dictatorial puppet governments that have been sponsored by the US and have them stuff it onto their children's children. There are only a handful of times in history where governments have paid back debt. Hard for me to believe that we will be a part of that handful. MM

Bernanke has already committed to "reinvesting proceeds" and stating that he doesn't want to have the economy go "cold turkey". It all means that he is not going to stop printing. "Cold turkey" is usually used with terms like Junkie or Alcoholic. I would generally not use the term "cold turkey" in the same sentence with anything healthy. In this case, I believe he is not ready to put away the smoke and mirrors to expose what is really there. So, we will hear about qe3 by September. I plan to only trade ES and I will try to get a piece if it if it goes up and a piece of it if it goes down. If it goes nowhere, then it will probably get a piece of me.

Our Social Security Admin was supposed provide benefits for retirees and that won't likely be around much past 2035 or so or whatever the new blow out date is. Everyone in the US pays about 15.5% of their pay into SS. Each employee only sees half of it come out of his paycheck, but the company he works for pays SS the other half and lowers the employees pay by the same amount. Most people do not know this and won't accept it because they forget that a corporation's main function is to turn a profit. Tax is cost that gets passed along to someone. either the consumer or the employee. By 2020 or so we will have 100 million people over age 65 on social security and there will be about 120 million working and paying into it. Does it sound like it has a chance of surviving? SS began as a benefit. It was actually tax free like an insurance benefit in the beginning and now it is taxed. But when you are forced to pay or get arrested and go to jail it isn't a benefit it's a tax..It was set up at a time when fewer people lived beyond age 65. In the end it was a way for the government to get the people to fund government debt and an inefficient way to create about 60,000 jobs.