MightyMouse

Josh, I break the volume down into 4 groups. Highly capitalized short term traders, highly capitalized long term traders, lowly capitalized short term traders, and lowly capitalized long term traders. Each reacts differently and have different motives. Sometimes highly can try to act like lowly, but lowly can never act like highly. 20k contracts in no time is certainly an indication of highly, but It could be lots of lowly The T&S will have given a better idea of that. They bought for a reason. it certainly wasn't a randomly generated order. It had a purpose. Was it a long term position? A Hedge against a short? Or, short term HC capitalized traders accumulating contracts to take advantage of weak shorts they perceive to be present? If you accurately identify the group, then you know what set of circumstances you need to see to stay in or get out or get long or get short since you can anticipate what they might do or not do next. This is not a science by any means. MM

I don't want anyone knocking at my door.

Lower $ risk = Less fear. If you can't find a simple solution, you are playing the wrong game.

Serious? Get rid of fear. I have discussed this many times. Fear is debilitating and should be minimized. If you can't figure out a way, then you should do something else. For me, it was minimizing the amount at risk over a period of time.

No question that if one is having difficulty trading that he needs to change and the greatest improvement will come from changing they way he thinks. How he changes how he thinks is the question. There are incredibly simple solutions to improve and excel at trading without having to delve into the inner workings of your subconscious or trace back your cells to when they swam in a primordial soup. Some may be so damaged that they simply cannot trade in the same way that a woman couldn't compete in the NFL or MLB. They might just have the wrong wiring or plumbing, etc. When do you suggest they call it quits?

Look at a weekly chart that has at least 150 bars. If it is sloped upward, then it is an uptrend. If it is sloped downward, then it's a down trend. A slope of zero means there is no trend. Then look at a daily chart with at least 150 bars, if it is sloped upward, it is an uptrend. If it is sloped downward, it is a downtrend. A slope of zero means there is no trend. If catching a trend, never trade against the weekly trend. When you enter a trade, there is no good reason to assume that the trend is going to cease in its current direction when you enter. If there is no trend in the weekly, then take trend trades long or short on the daily and expect there to be support or resistance at the bottom and top of the weekly range or bracket. Trend detection is far simpler if done visually. A child can do it. I call anything below daily time frame an up move or a down move.

Siuya, They do not need to have played but they certainly must understand the game they are playing. If they do not understand the game, they can not coach. So, requiring a trading coach to be an expert trader isn't necessary, but they should truly understand what it takes to be a trader and you cannot understand what it takes to be a trader unless you understand trading. Also, a great baseball coach wouldn't be able to effectively coach a trader to trade, unless he was helping develop a level swing to take out all his monitors with one swing when he gets pissed at a bad loss. MM

If you know how to trade, then you should know precisely why Rande. (I a not sure he is a psychologist) is on a trading forum.

In order to make a great deal of money in a short period of time, one needs circumstances, which are out of the individual's control, to align with the strategy that he or she is trading at that particular time. It was true in the early 80's and it is true now. Skill and experience will help you survive the times in between your successful periods.

I made a tremendous amount of money in the early 80's when there was no scott trade or internet. I began with $5000 and everything was done over the phone. My broker was Hertzfeld & Stern which was later bought by Gruntal. I plotted charts on paper and my sources f data where the NYT, the WSJ and Baron's. I was doing "wrong" things like averaging losers. At the time, the only book I read was a very basic book that explained futures and options contracts. I was trading options of LBO rumers and the gains where spectacular. I lost a great deal of it back, but certainly not all of it. Was it luck? Sure was. Right time, right place, right strategy.

Why is the balance off? How many different pairs do you trade? Do you stick to a particular timeframe? Are you scaling into or out of trades? What is your basic strategy? Are you posting your entry stop and exit levels before you enter? I applaud your effort and courage to post publicly and I hope you succeed. You are going to make mistakes. It's a game of mistakes. The guy with the least mistakes makes the most. So, when you think you made a lamebrain decision, it's just a part of the game. Regroup and reload.

Is it possible for you to post when and where you plan on entering and placing your stop and target before you enter?

It seems like you have 5 minutes to figure this all out.

When did you get into this trade?

If Iranians didn't think they could benefit, they wouldn't be acting the way they are. If the Americans didn't think they could benefit, they wouldn't be acting the way they are. There is a very long list of beneficiaries to what is occurring. Therefore, there is no incentive to stop it yet.

As a simplification, each time I look at the market, I ask, where is it going and how well is it getting there, and what do I need to do to take money from it, and can I do it without hurting my account. There are times in markets where and when a high risk, low reward, high probability trade makes sense if done right. And there are times when a low probability, high reward, and low risk strategy makes more sense to me, and there are times when neither make sense. In poker parlance, sometimes it makes sense to play rags and sometimes you have to dump Aces. Under all circumstances I do not turn a blind eye to risk or ROR. I dial up or down the number of contracts I trade to bring the dollar risk into line with my account. The max risk is really all that matters to me. I am not a "stop or target" trader. I believe that it is foolish to impose overly rigid rules on a dynamic system. The markets encourage arrogance. Other times, when I can't figure out the 4 questions I stay away completely. Without question, there are times, many times, when I do not get the answers right. Generally, that means that market conditions are changing. Hopefully, at that point, I am not on tilt and too stubborn to realize the change. I have certainly have had bad days trading a high risk, low reward, high probability strategy, wishing I had stayed out, but I have had bad days with a low risk, low probability, high reward trade strategy too. On the other hand, I have also had insanely profitable days trading either or both.

There are no decent stats to determine who wins and who loses. The poll at the top of the page indicates that more people make a living trading than those who don't. The 80 or 90% figures include the one and done traders, the ill advised, etc. The more interesting stat to me would involve only traders who have traded for at least 5 years or perhaps longer. I would like to know what their stats are.What they earned as a percentage of capital, how many were profitable, etc.

BBC News - Iran nuclear crisis: Sanctions 'beginning to bite'

You are up 10k in 6 weeks and you are pissed about your decision making? I hope you are having fun since you are clearly playing games. I have to call bullshit (again).

You need to train her to put it back up when she is done.

You'd rather have hamburger at a higher price than steak.

Poker is a whole different game. You can talk about probabilities because a deck of cards is subject to being normally distributed.

The percent winners have to be higher than 50% for either of the 3 scenarios to be profitable. Keep in mind that in order to make 2 ticks, price has to move 3 ticks to guarantee an exit.To lose 3 ticks, it only has to go 3 ticks to guarantee a loss. At the end of the week,month, or year add up your commissions and you'll know who your partner is.

You guys should define what an edge is before you decide if it is easy or hard to find. It could very well be that traders fail because they do not know what they are looking for and end up make donations all day long.

Urma that is probably the funniest thing i have ever seen on this site. Thank you for pointing it out.