MightyMouse

Wow, the Greenspan clip is from the 80's. I didn't watch the whole thing, but he referred to GNP and program trading which they haven't used in eons, I suspect it was right around the time that Alan Greenspan took over for Paul Volcker. Nice find

Watch " Floored" or "Pit". each describes the transition from floor pit to electronic.

I trade 1 or 2 instruments if daytrading, but only one at a time. Longer term I can trade a couple but generally focus on 1.

Scalping ticks isn't a game that I can do profitably so I stay away. Yes I am missing something. As I stated, I don't see how HFT can approach a market like ES and get in and out with a tick or 2 of profit without getting at the end of the queue. They can certainly enter muck faster than you or I, but they still have to get at the end of the queue. The market doesn't part for them simply because they are so fast.

Traditional futures scalping was done with a theoretical advantage by traders who were talented at spotting opportunities where they could buy at the bid and sell at the ask, almost at the same time. It was a sort of arbitrage. A trader's relationship with other floor traders or floor brokers in the pit was an important factor. Those opportunities don't exist for small traders in the electronic markets. I am not sure how a HFT can have an advantage attempting to scalp when the bid is stacked in the 4 figures on each side of an instrument like ES and the hft still has to get at the end of the queue with his orders no matter how fast he enters it. It would make sense how a hft would be able to benefit from arbitrage, but not scalping, unless I am missing something

You'll go through small accounts trading futures very quickly unless you are very lucky. No matter how good you are, given the unknowns, there is going to be an element of luck to your trading, because there is an element of luck to everyone's trading. Since you are new, you will likely experience more bad luck than you will good luck as you fumble your way around against traders who have a huge amount more experience than you.

Don't let negativity and pessimism get in the way of a market run to a new high. Rates are low, will stay low, and money is going to find its way into the market. Short term dips? sure. Don't be fooled. We are going to a new high very soon. Maybe even an all time high by year end.

Not sure how someone can scalp unless they are so huge that they can put up size to stop price if that makes sense. I trade slightly smaller size than that.

The game has changed, but it isn't dead. The game is dead for the pit trader and for anyone else trying to use the same strategy as a pit trader.

It looks to me that gold is probably a better reflective of inflation, It doesn't look like the CPI is a good measure of inflation. The CPI is supposed to measure inflation, but it doesn't really measure a constant basket of consumer goods.

It's good that the CFTC is watching someone.

Your posts were much better before you were stripped of your awards.

I would be curious to know what the transaction costs of the traders were. I suspect that there was a considerable amount of over trading occurring for the group which leads to high costs and, therefore, makes the group more likely to have losses. Over trading means you are taking losses and having small gains. Nothing wrong with the losses, but there is something wrong with the small gains. Small gains are what kill a trader, not lots of losses. If you add back in the costs, if the group were experiencing something close to a random distribution of wins and losses the wins and losses would have been about the same.

I give you guys credit for trying to trade these narrow range days in es.

Like I thought. I know for sure that I have never been in the zone you are talking about. I am always aware of the price, time, and volume of the instrument that I am trading until I am not trading.

I suppose it may be. I have never been in anything that is similar to what was being described. Can you be in the zone when you are losing or winning? Or, is the zone associated with winning only? As far as driving is concerned, are you driving in the "zone" if you crash?

As an accomplished trader, the zone is an experience that you have when you are winning consistently throughout some period. It is an experience you want to relive as often as possible. Time seems to slow down because everything is working out in your favor. You will credit your analysis for your excellent market savvy. You are also in a zone when you are losing consistently throughout the day. This is not an experience that you want to relive over and over. You should also credit your excellent savvy in this situation. It is impossible and unnecessary to trade without mistakes. It is important and essential that you properly trade the mistake; minimize the lose or maximize the win in spite of the mistake.

Bob, Don't feel hurt if she calls someone else when she is roasting a pig.

You could say that losing 200 is breaking even too, but it gets counted into the losing accounts as a losing account. Maybe all of them tried their own thing and that is why none of them made money. Perhaps the system really does work.

What was the huge motivation to succeed? They were looking for jobs and got scammed into the fantasy of easy money/security/independence/etc. They were there a year. They had unrealistic expectations and quit. About 1 or 2 made money. that is pretty consistent with the expectation that almost everyone loses.

The stats do not tell us anything that was not known before. A trader will lose money from time to time to time. Someone who is not a trader will lose money most of the time or all of the time. Regan was the vendor supreme. He took down almost $1 million in just over a year and never traded a dime. Gotta love it!

I have to thank you for the vernacular orgy you provide from time to time. I am enriched.

if the spread is 1.5 the market has to move up 11.5 for you to make 10 ticks and down 10 ticks to lose at least 10 ticks. So, you are correct. I made a mistake. My example is not accurate, but the message is the same.

Without the use of charts: Interest rates are low. Inflation is either high or low and it really doesn't matter since the fed is trying to spur inflation Earnings are expected to be high. We can expect money to continue to flow into stocks. With a chart. Very minor pullback on the monthly chart. In spite of the positive implications of the above, there is very small volume on the way up which means to me the masses have not started buying which means that there is no substantial overhead supply to be concerned with.

You should definitely evaluate the trades you are taking. It could be that you are naively entering trades that you just do not have a chance of coming out ahead. Trading forex, you pay a spread. The best I have seen is about 1.5 pips for the euro on a full lot which amounts to 30 usd in and out. So, if you are going to risk 10 pips to earn 20 and you have a 50/50 chance of winning, assuming 1 pip on average of slippage, you will net $10 USD per trade over the long run if you promise to not move your stop or target. You have a positive expectancy (not likely as much as you thought), however you also have a draw down associated with this trade. Can you survive the draw down to earn $10 usd a trade? It is easy to calculate but you have to answer this question before you take the trade. If you increase the spread to 2 pips in the above example, your trade has an expectancy of $0. Higher than 2 pips and you are negative. So, yes, you can lose money on a 2 to 1 R:R with a 50/50 expectancy trade in forex which makes it very frustrating because at first glance it seems like if you did that trade all day, you would be rich. Then if you are the type of trader that moves his stop when it goes against him and then moves his exit to break even (one of my favorite trader types, second only to the guy who "averages down"), you are sabotaging your ability to win. This is common. You change a trade from an estimated probability of winning to one that has a guaranteed probability of not winning. If you do that trade 1000 times, x percent of the time you will break even and y percent of the time you will lose. There is no win. So, look at each trade you take like a game that you are going to play 1000 times and determine if it is worth your time and money to take the risk. When you take a trade, you are better off remaining committed to the trade than changing the trade once you are in if you are new and just learning to read order flow. Eventually you will begin to understand the need to minimize your losses (not necessarily losers) and maximize your winners.