MightyMouse

The term Consistent gets thrown around like a cheap suit. I would like to know what some of you guys consider to be consistent when used in conjunction with profit. As far as a strategy that wins 90% of the time, the win/loss targets and tick size, and liquidity of the market you are choosing will have to be considered before you choose to employ such a strategy.

Really nice work by all of you guys.

"Wall Street Warriors" It was on Hulu "The Pit" "Floored" "Cincinati Kid" "Rounders" "Houston We have a problem"

All that matters is profits.

If you are talking about testing your plan with old data, then sure you can test it. If that gives you confidence that your plan will work, then I suppose it is helpful. There are times when you can be consistently profitable and times when you can't, given an account size. Frequently the best trade is no trade. No trade means no loss or profit. Other times you may still be able to profit, but the profits are very small. Other times your account is just to small to trade, given the market conditions. Etc, etc. A plan and the testing of a plan will not assist us in dealing with the stream of unknown data that the market throws at us every day. Your draw-down could end up being significantly larger and longer than anything you expect or completely outside the realm of expectations. Do you change your plan or do you ride it out? A fool changes or "tweeks" his plan if he is not prepared mentally to trade his plan. I am not selling anything or speaking of ideals of what we ought to do. I speak from practical experience.

Wallstreet Warriors. I saw it on Hulu The Pit Floored Cincinnati Kid Rounders Wallstreet Warriors is exceptional in that it was filmed prior to 2008. It was a series.

DB, Discipline is very important. Discipline along with patience. There is no way to thoroughly test a plan and consistently profitable may mean long periods of no trade which makes "consistently profitable" a dubious concept. Going long periods of no trade or of also staying in the same trade for a long period does take patience and discipline. There is no doubt there. IMO a thoroughly tested and consistently profitable plan is sought after and attainable but unattainable in a way that is pleasing to the mind. A trader's Nirvana. MM

Trader A is a loser, given commissions and the spread. No, No, and No. Trader B taking 10 trades a week makes about $30 per contract traded. Trader B achieves profits, but can suffer long spells of draw-down as the long run works itself out. Maybe, Maybe, and No.

Cheating has an appeal until you get caught.

You have to give more information. Are you securities licensed? Are you an RIA? If yes, then you are crossing ethical lines and you can be fined or barred or enjoined or some other humiliating method of tarring and feathering.

I added quickly. Here is your quote: " A high risk trade means taking a trade that probably will work or that offers some edge but that requires a larger stop or higher risk of being stopped out". So, then how does a trade that will probably work have a higher risk of being stopped out? If there is a higher risk of being stopped out it sounds like there is a high risk of the trade ending in loss. If it has a high risk of ending in loss, how can you say it will probably work? You do feel compelled to talk about your statements. Read your prior post and you will see mention of them.

A high risk short means that it probably will work but it has the potential of being stopped out quickly? If it has a chance of being stopped out quickly, it seems to me that the trade could quickly end in a loss. So, if it quickly ends in a loss, how is it a trade that will probably work? Is it that the market is wrong for stopping you out because it should have worked? Do you see why it is puzzling? Not trying to beat you up and your statements are of no interest to me and I do understand your need to convey that you are making money.

I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right I am right. So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about being right. I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those trades. The simplest trading guides suggest that you not trade when there is no volatility. No trade is a trade. You kind of have to look at it as being the small stack at a poker table. Pick your spots carefully. You need to be extraordinarily lucky to win playing rags against players with large stacks. Generally, you will get killed.

Old enough to know how to respond to someone who is acting like a child.

Sadaam Hussain started using the euro for oil transactions in 2000. That went over like a fart in church. They found the poor guy hiding in a hole. As of march 2012 Iran's plan was to use other currencies to fulfill oil transactions. Suddenly, the war drums are beating.

40,000 pages is a lot of pages.

My comment regards the fact that the Euro is being devalued and so is the dollar. You should understand this if you are trading currencies. The euro/usd is only one way to trade the euro. Son, I made money on the trade. I likely made both more in pips and dollars, than you did over the same period. I didn't make as much as I could have if I got out at the low, but I would have made a lot more if it went lower. You do have the luxury of knowing when I entered. A luxury not to many others are willing to afford. One needs big balls to trade the way I do. Based on your tone,it is obviously not your type of trading. And, I am certainly not offering anyone a system, method or service.

I actually did think of it. I suspected that no one would want to participate.

MP was a volume estimation tool when volume wasn't available. No need for volume estimation since most instruments publish volume. The MP properties of MP that are detailed in the Dalton book(s) are mystical at best. Useless would be more appropriate.He is an author who makes his money from book sales and not from trading. I signed up for his webinars in 2008 and can report that he can double speak with the best of them. He is awesome at not committing and spent easily 15-25 minutes of each 1 hour seminar pitching his 10,000 per week seminar. Oddly enough, the seminars had little to do with MP. He would "speed read" the market using daily bars and find gaps that would make the market rise sometimes 60 points to fill. He believed that traders would manipulate the market to fill the gap. I thought it was senseless and was very sorry I signed up.

Track all 500 stocks, calc the market cap, weigh them and then compare that to the index or es. A lot of the arbs try to use a representative basket of stocks that will mimic the index. At least this is what they used to do. It's a game that is dominated by institutions who have lightening fast execution (HFT)

Individuals using common sense is exactly what a trader needs to be able to profit. Common sense is what motivates someone to buy or sell at the wrong time or not buy or not sell at the right time. An individual's common sense exists on a completely different plane than that of a trader. What is common or sensible to an individual will never lead to profitable opportunities.

The 500 stocks in the s&p 500 are what moves the SPX and ES. The s&p index (SPX) is calculated by getting the market cap of each stock and then weighing each share price by the weight of its market cap to the other 500 stocks. A rise in the price of the stock will increase the index by that percentage increase times it's weight if no other stocks had a change in price. In practice the plusses and minuses created by buying and selling stocks make the moves minor per each stock unless there is mass buying or selling. It could be that speculators buy es anticipating a move and es moves more than the index. When arbs recognize this they will sell es and buy the underlying to take advantage of the opportunity. This is not to say that the speculators are always wrong when the big bad arbs, step in. Arbs could sell es and buy stocks while the underlying stocks rise and es continues to rise until the discrepancy disappears; es and stocks could both rise at a different rate. But, the speculators could be wrong too and a slightly different situation would prevail until the discrepancy disappeared. There are also arb opportunities between options, interest rates, and volatility on each of the indexes, underlying sectors, stocks, futures, swaps, and you name it. Each could have an impact on the instrument and then the index. Ultimately, someone who owns the stock will look at the price of the stock relative to the current and future earnings potential and decide if it is overvalued or undervalued. In the end, earnings and potential earnings are what drive stock prices and the S&P.

The euro is and will continue moving south. You have to contend with the US Dollar moving south faster.

Hi Mouse It looks like the list may be growing - lol slick I was stopped out on Friday.

You just reminded me that I want to buy and learn how to ride a unicycle. Cool stuff