MightyMouse

Suddenly I am craving sushi.

The bigger lobbyists back both sides.

yes the market continues to rock

Can you determine if fed policy will work?

They are adding a level of "randomness" to markets that most of us, ( me included ) might not be able to figure out in time. It is impossible to determine what the consequences will be to these unprecedented actions. You can say that fed policy is an attempt to get everyone to bet in the wrong direction. Will getting everyone to bet in the wrong direction work?

Interest rates, inflation, and earnings lead the S&P. Copper is currently moving in the same direction as the S&P. It is a quasi-valid relationship since it is an industrial metal and an increase in the industrial component of the S&P would lead to more demand for copper. The current high level of correlation is because copper can also be used as a hedge against central bank policy. All commodities are being used as a hedge against a further devaluation of the USD. These relationships are all a result of fed policy. So much for free markets. The bulk of the S&P gets its earnings from finance. So, rising copper prices from increased manufacturing would have only a partial impact on the S&P. You would be better of betting on the price of copper because of a increase in industrial production than you would by trying to buy the s&p. If central bank policy "works" we will have falling commodity prices and a rising S&P. if it "fails" we will have skyrocketing commodity prices and a falling S&P. Everything at this point is a bet on fed policy. You have every right to call me completely wrong if you are making money by trading the copper/S&P correlation. You also have every right to call me completely wrong if you are going long by flipping a coin at the beginning of the day. Heads you go long and tails you don't. Both are working just as well.

Ali et al would leave their guards down to provide a target and lure opponents into trying to hit them which would make open up the opponent's target. The best knew they were fast, agile and confident enough to use such a ploy. Ali, specifically, late in his career used the "rope-a-dope" ploy which was a kin to him playing possum against the ropes which encouraged boxers to punch themselves to exhaustion. This strategy was particularly useful against boxers who he knew were more powerful than him and who would not last long. So, Ali did keep his guard up all the time until he detected fatigue in the other boxer. It was awesome. You next Vince. You next Vince.

The direction of the price of copper can be implied by the direction of the S&P, not the other way around. There are very good reasons the S&P/copper relationship exists. The reasons will change as central bank policy changes.

If she looks at the 5 minute then she will see the same thing. Will she arrive at the same conclusion? No idea. If she is trading daily or weekly bars, your 5 min s/r likely doesn't exist at all. I look at what you call S/R and see something entirely different than what most people see when they see S/R.

We may not all be seeing the same data. A grandma who buys 10 shares a month of MCD has no idea what data is let alone support or resistance. She, along with hundreds of thousands of other investors who buy systematically also have no idea where support or resistance is. Monthly and weekly chart traders may have no idea what the daily or hourly charts look like. Are they wrong for not looking at the minutia and not checking the lower timeframe S/R levels. No matter what timeframe, support or resistance is a level where you HOPE it will reverse. It becomes support or resistance after-the-fact. It it doesn't hold, it was never support or resistance in the first place.

If your partner is good at algorithmic trading, then why are you trying to reinvent the wheel?

I remember the 19th very well; likewise, what I did and didn't do.

I am certain a lot of yahoos will think, " I have been using my Milwaukee table saw for years and nothing happened. Not worth the 60 bucks when I can be careful."

An edge is within you. It is your ability to take money from other traders. It is the mental game. More specifcally, it is knowing when others are going to be wrong. You won't find it on a chart or a spread sheet. Do statistical arbitrage opportunities exist? Yes, if you are fast enough to find them. An edge does not occur when line A crosses over line B. They absolutely repopulate but you may have to be patient for them to come back; and, yes, I do see them as types. In my opinion seeing them as types and identifying which types are active is critical to succeeding. You need to have a good idea if there are traders who will pay you before you take a trade. If you need to make money from trading and can't wait for the lemmings to be repopulated the market, then perhaps you should learn how to trade other markets, but they do come back. The lemming analogy only really goes so far since we are human and not driven by instinct.

I am speaking more about an edge that you may have in the market. It frequently goes stale. It goes stale because the lemmings that you are used to taking money from cease to exist as they were either by learning or extinction. Eventually a new flock comes back, but for a time being the new flock sees that what the old lemmings were doing does not work and won't engage in the activity that gave you an edge. But at some point they will. You too will then have to learn that the edge is not working as it was or perish along with the lemmings since if you can't take advantage of anyone in the market, you will be taken advantage of. If markets were in fact the same all the time, then you would be able to do the same old thing and make money all the time. That type of thinking is holy grailish.

Not taking a long at 1775

It is a given that your market will behave differently over time. You can't keep taking money from the same people without them going broke or learning.

A benefit of a stop entry is that if it doesn't go in the right direction, you do not get filled at all. You can be wrong and not pay. Life is good.

It sucks when I get filled and it starts back down. I give it a total of 8 pts as a disaster stop. I will call an audible exit if I do not like the way order flow develops which means I may get out at a slight gain, slight loss, or if none of my triggers are triggered, then I lose 8 full points on my initial position. I have a very distinct set of rules that I follow while I am in the trade and don't leave anything up to emotion. The most vulnerable time of a trade is the entry, therefore, my most objective set of rules is around the entry. When price has moved far enough away and I begin to add, then I use a BE stop, but also monitor price, time and volume to determine if I am going to stay in or get out. When the position gets large enough, the exit becomes more subjective than objective.

I think the slinky is ready to crawl upwards. There are plenty, plenty shorts who will start coughing up their positions as we retrace higher. It could extend up into the high 50's. I expect a grind up move on low volume and not a move similar to the move down.The 1430 area could be a problem. I won't add until we clear that. I think the it is worth the risk to make what could be made and I will start a position at 17.75 on a stop. I like to see a clear change in direction before I enter.

FTX, Your post was certainly lengthy. I appreciate your effort. I would be just as likely to add to a losing position as I would to attempting to catch the knife. Again, I can't comment on something that I won't do and I do not think that just because I won't do it, that it can't be done.

The areas you outline look like better places to exit than to enter. Certainly you can capture hundreds, but from the looks of those charts, it seems like you may have left 1000's on the table to capture the hundred if you are only catching the knife. But, If it a skill you have developed, then so be it. I am not the fool to condemn someone for taking money from the market. My comments mainly reflect my inability to catch the knife.

I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

This isn't advice you can attain from individuals who not have a large sum of money.

I look at it is a function of account size. If the account doesn't grow, I have no business adding contracts.