SunTrader

:hmmmm: More self evident desperation by bulls to hold 1203-1200 zone:

Desperately tried to hold support:

"...probably surpassing the highs of the past few years." Based on what, wishful thinking? Price matters, not opinions. Gold has been bearish, other than on a very short term basis, since fall of 2011. Through prior equity corrections, Now with the Euro (EZ economies) and Crude collapsing further strengthening the Dollar this pressures Gold and Silver even more. The chart and fundamentals point lower. This is reality, not my opinion.

Which is in line with end of year squaring. Not much commitment either way.

Real support and resistance levels don't do pennies. But I do agree the medium/longer term trend is still down.

Gold tonight gap down almost -2% and once again Silver leading the way down -5.5%. Look out beloooow. Although both gaps might get filled before they continue lower.

Holiday (Thanksgiving Day) here in the U.S Thursday which means low volume so stops either direction can be taken out easily.

Why? ......................

I feel confident in more lows ($980-890 range) to come ... as more turn bullish. Even my mentor.

Where is $2000/oz Patuca?

Friday it poked its pinbar nose thru the 61.8% ret level - for a 3rd time recently. If you are mainly referring (as all good permabulls do) to the up days of Weds/Thurs price wasn't in position yet. Time was with 5 day up move after previous two 3 day upswings. Pattern was a little indecisive. So from the way I look at things, time was ready, price became ready late Friday which makes 2 out 3. But entering once price has dropped is definitely not with odds no matter how I look at it.

The opposite. After considering time, price, and pattern odds favor shorting when price moves up, not down. Down is too late. Same in reverse for up trades.

A nut caught in a trap is not a pleasant thought. Ouch!

Until the next time when the trap is faster than the mouse. Counter trend trading will do that.

They are IMO true support and resistance levels. Something I re-discovered recently, that I came across years ago, called trending candle body reversal. Defined as a bar where the open-close range is greater than at least 50% of its truehigh-truelow range, so gaps have to be considered. The open of a trending candle is then the level to watch. Here is another example XAU H4. Wicks are less important - where subsequent bar closes are in relation to the levels is the key:

Assume you are looking at Sept'14 contract. If so, agree it is bearish but think it might have more short term upside. I see increasing volume on down days as opposed to the few up days lately. Also increasing overall open interest. Now as far as EW it looks like it has made a wave 3 bottom and close to or already finished a wave 4 top. Wave 4 being similar in price and time to wave 2. As you can see I am not real confident on this since soybeans are not a market I ordinarily look at. HTH

Sorry Bob just getting back to you but "its been crazy lately". In a good way. Anyway I previously had a short entered during day of wide range down bar 7/14/14, exited after 1) 50% retrace of up move and 2) then high of narrow range bar 7/16/14 was exceeded following day 7/17/14. Currently I am back short from 7/18/14 after 61.8% retracement of down move and a second short after 1299.50 level (see chart) was broken as well as wedge, pennant, flag, triangle or whatever the freak a labeler wants to call it. :crap: On a daily chart we are presently in minor wave 3 of 5 of Wave 3 of a major Wave 5. So a ways more down to go. See chart for price targets for current minor wave 3 - typical 1272-1271 - maximum 1240-1239 - as always if I am right and Mr. Elliott cooperates. Stop out 1301, lower as it goes lower.

End of the downtrend. Are you standing on your head looking at your charts again? Not good for the grey matter.

Hey Bob, "Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies". Oh wait those kind of fibs, of course - fibs and waves. Note I said a few days ago wave 5 was underway. I should have said wave 5 continues. It has been underway since St Paddy's day March 17th - at least as always - if my count is right:

Oh yeah. Whole lotta shaking going on - Jerry Lee Lewis Shaking out everyone who went long the last 3 weeks. I hope you didn't? Keep your eye on 1298 midpoint of last big bullish daily bar on June 19th. If it doesn't hold then ... :puke:

It is jumping. Out the freakin' window!!!! Or to put it another way - wave 5 down is underway as I have said continuing the bear trend. It ain't over till its over. Wait the end is coming (the end of the bear and the end of the permabulls) but will you be still afloat when it does?

The right way .

Algo's and HFT's got nothing to do with - stops being hit, if they are placed correctly - or deciding whether or not to average LOSING trades. Also timeframe matters not one bit to me. I use a max position loss, not what it does day to day. I never, at least intentionally anyway, go beyond it. Never. What is the sense of a having a limit but saying well just this one time. I promise. Really I do. Well ok most of the time. No, no really.

What you say is true ... except you still have time things. Say if you started shorting in 2008 at $700 alllllll the freakin' way up till October 2011 at the alltime high of $1921 and then brilliantly :doh: started going long from then until now. A body could become a buried body when they couldn't pay back the loan shark used to fund margin calls. BTW averaging up or down is for suckers, plain and simple. You put on a trade and let the stop do the work. Ain't no other way if you want to survive and more importantly thrive.

A body? I prefer using my mind to make decisions. And as you know, I believe there is plenty of time to buy Gold ... and at a much lower price.