SunTrader

On cnbc.com today: Is the Gold Rush Over? 1 Aug 2012 By: Sharon Epperson, Judy Gee Sliding gold coin sales show that retail demand for the actual metal is clearly fading, but dealers and analysts say it is not because investors are less concerned about the financial turmoil around the globe. There's just not the same fervor for the precious metal as in recent years. "This is the first time in our economic history that we have a situation where there is such tremendous economic uncertainty and global fear when gold has not skyrocketed in tandem," said gold dealer Lee Rosenbloom, owner of Plaza 57 Appraisals and Plaza Collectibles in New York. COMEX gold futures [GCCV1 1602.30 -8.20 (-0.51%) ] have declined 9.5 percent, nearly $200, from the 2012 peak near $1,800 an ounce, and prices over the past 12 months are basically flat. As for the physical metal, declining sales in U.S. gold coins — a real-time proxy for retail investment demand — along with a somewhat stagnant gold futures price indicate the frenzy over gold has calmed, but it's certainly not been crushed. Sales of gold coins at the U.S. Mint plunged to about 30,000 for one-ounce gold coins in July — that's less than half the number sold in the same month last year and more than six times fewer than at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. "Coin sales are price sensitive, but there's a bit of a lag effect," explained HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel. Gold prices rose in January and February to the highs of the year and coin demand dropped a few months later due to those high prices, he said. But "the decline in retail coin sales does not necessarily herald a bear market," noted Steel. ConvergEx Group's chief market strategist Nicholas Colas agrees slowing demand for gold coins is not necessarily a negative sign. "Demand which was in fact probably too high in 2008 and 2009 because of worries of the financial crisis has simmered down to a more sustainable rate, reflecting a more structural level of demand that is sustainable and ongoing and one that is healthier ultimately for the gold markets," Colas says. The gold market has witnessed this cycle before. Gold coin sales historically spike in times of uncertainty — most recently during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 1999 Y2K scare, and in October 1987, after Black Monday. Once the initial cause of panic levels off, sales return to more normalized levels, Colas says. Yet even without a financial crisis, demand for gold won't just disappear, he said, since it fulfills a role no other commodity or financial asset provides: low correlation to and diversification from other markets. And for retail investors, it's not all about crises or fear. Coin buyers, unlike institutional buyers, aren't usually seeking a "safe-haven" to protect large portfolios, said RBC Capital Markets' precious metals strategist George Gero. Also, he added, "as the economic recovery has weakened, retail investors have had less disposable income to purchase coins." But well-capitalized investors may begin to fill the void. Coin dealers say their clientele is changing. "Previously, we had the general public purchasing gold," Rosenbloom said. "Now our coins are going to less people, however, more sophisticated, big-money investors and buyers." Steel contends physical demand for gold will remain slow and steady. He says the gold market has stabilized, consistently holding above $1,525 an ounce so far this year. "Retail interest from gold buyers may have faded, but has by no means evaporated altogether," he says. As the U.S. presidential election approaches, and if U.S. fiscal problems are front-and-center in the markets once again, Steel says further uncertainty could stimulate gold coin sales. So the precious metals craze may have slowed down, but sliding coin sales don't mean the gold rush is over. -By CNBC's Sharon Epperson

No of course not, nobody does that on the internet.

Researchers are happy when they get money to study the obvious.

What was today's high? Oh that's right - right in the resistance zone I've mentioned repeatedly. On the biggest volume in weeks. Looks like distribution to me. Maybe it breaks it ..... and maybe it doesn't.

Except 1627-1630 resistance zone, for the last 4 months, is still in the way.

Are you using a different length from default (14) for RSI on daily chart because I show 33.03 on Friday's close?

Chart pics open up teenie tiny small to see much at all.

Exactly, everything else is thrown into a catch-all term as scalping.

If that is all that is needed how come we haven't seen $25000 gold? How much funny money does the fed need to print.

1) Oh so the game is, we are not in debt up to our eyeballs because look at how much more Country "X" is. 2) Debt is debt. Whether private citizens or the govmint is the instigator of it. 3) Finland not Sweden is the one with the lionshare of the North Sea oil. 4) Sure there are lots of examples of Keynesian growth and then subsequent larger deficits in the future. Next politician will deal with that and the one after until ......... + + + Back to Gold As I have said many times, many places Gold is following Silver's lead. As the world economies grow, or lack thereof nowadays, price will head. Which ever since the highs last fall has been down. No reason to see a change anytime soon.

1600 is just a BRN to me but the more important zone is high 1620's to low 1630's:

Oh you mean do exactly what we did to get us into this mess. Funny a fat person doesn't doesn't loss weight by eating a sh*!|oad more. BTW Adam Smith's invisible hand is the marketplace, not god. You've got the Tea Party confused with the religious conservatives but that is ok because from your statements you are confused about a helluva lot more than just that.

IMO that is stretching the definition of the word similar.

Gold has been following Silver's lead since the double top last Aug/Sept. Gold made slightly higher swing high while Silver made a slightly lower swing high. Silver having more practical uses in industry is falling with the slowing growth rate in the world economy. Nothing more complicated than that.

Wychoff would probably be the first to say - his is not the only way.

Left out one: At what point do you start selling?

I guess bulls are happy that they can buy at lower prices. But they shouldn't use up too much of their cash and/or margin because much lower prices are becoming more and more likely. No catch a falling knife for me. I'm waiting for an actual turn in the trend to signal time to buy.

No surprise to me. Been watching this level ($1630) for weeks.

Nah I prefer the real deal. Walk the walk and not talk the talk of trading waaay beyond the level of someone posting on Traders Lab. :haha: Not directed at yourself btw.

Ho hum, theoreticals are great for university settings. Too bad my dad died many years ago otherwise I'd hit him up for a few mil so I could smack the S&P guys in Chicago half way to Shanghai.

Based on probabilities otherwise this too is insufficient.

On Seeking Alpha yesterday: "10:00 AM The next time some pezzonovante talks about cutting off aid to Greece, find him and give him a smack. Of the €410B in "aid" to Greece over the past 2 years, JPMorgan estimates only about €15B has gone into the economy, the rest doing a 180 and going to creditors. German and French banks were the main beneficiaries of the first bailouts, now it's the ECB and the IMF."

Yeah I used to like the idea of smoothing things out a bit until I realized ..... I don't want smooth! The more you smooth, the more you lose. Average traders use moving averages kind of thing.

I look for cycles. Can't do that, accurately, without a time axis. I prefer to keep it real.

Read an oped today, forgot to copy link, that made the point Germany should leave the Euro - not Greece. They are the one's with the strong economy and benefiting from the weaker common currency with most of the other economies in deep trouble. If they left the currency would weaken further allowing those countries to have a competitive advantage to possible grow their exports.