SunTrader

Foxconn Plant in Peanut Field Shows Labor Eroding China Edge Foxconn Plant in Peanut Field Shows Labor Eroding China Edge - Bloomberg “China’s advantage in low-cost manufacturing will end much sooner than expected, I believe within five years,” said Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “Wages are rising faster inland than on the coast. More companies will consider moving to countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.”

+ 1 As the woman in the 60 minutes video said the U.S., even with all of its problems, still atrracts Chinese people to come here because of ..... democracy. But she also believes democracy will happen in China too very soon, i.e. less than 20 years.

Well if my wave count is right, that I have posted recently, then Gold is in a corrective phase and therefore although it is rising it is not strong. Look at the recent move down from Feb 7 to Feb 21 - impulsive. Since then corrective, overlapping price bars. Big moves out of corrective patterns resume the prior trend, which in this case would be down. IMO if you are looking to go long and for more than a day or two you will need patience and to wait out correction and then completion of downtrend before looking for a new uptrend to commence.

"Many Russian bloggers are certain that the tax proposal is specifically aimed at corrupt Russian bureaucrats and capitalists. “Germany, France and Great Britain have decided to resolve Cyprus’s, and some of the EU’s, debt problem at the expense of Russian criminals and corrupt bureaucrats,” wrote Valery Morozov, a businessman who fled Russia after accusing Kremlin officials of corruption, in his LiveJournal blog. “The policies of Putin and his inner circle, based on criminal ethics and not laws or citizens’ interests, had one day to clash with the political and economic interests of the rest of the world.”

Meanwhile Silver is getting left behind, which is bearish for Gold if it were to continue much.

Looking like wave 4 completes by end of week/monday latest at either typical zone of 1631-1637 or max zone of 1647-1657.

QE: Gun boat diplomacy toward China's currency (Futures Magazine - By Justin Pugsley) U.S. and Japanese central bank quantitative easing programs are placing China between a rock and a hard place in which a revaluation of the Chinese yuan vs. the U.S. dollar may turn out to be the least bad solution from the point of view of China's leadership. If that turns out to be the case, it would be seen as an important victory for the U.S. and Japan. QE would have scored where hardnosed negotiations so often failed. It would also set a worrying precedent in which QE is no longer just viewed as a means for economic stimulus, but also as a weapon. Possibly one far cheaper and more effective than gunboats. For millennia China's rulers have been deeply preoccupied with unemployment and inflation, which have the potential to cause popular unrest and un-seat rulers. Even the departing Premier Wen Jiabao recently warned that keeping prices in check would remain a key challenge for the country's policy makers. China holds a dim view of the U.S. Federal Reserve's money creation programs because they are causing commodity prices to rise and are fuelling hot money flows into countries not pursuing easy money policies, such as China. With the Bank of Japan promising to be every bit as aggressive as the Fed, there is likely to be even greater pressure on China's inflation. With inflation looking like more of a threat to China than unemployment at the moment, China may have no other choice than to revalue CNY upwards vs. USD. China's consumer prices registered a 10-month high in February of 3.2% year-on-year, but more seriously in terms of popular discontent potential, food prices rose 6%. That's partly down to China's New Year festivities. But flows of speculative capital driven by foreign central bank QE programs could see China's inflation levels pushing higher. The magnet for that hot money is partly because CNY has risen in value pulled up by its USD peg. According to the People's Bank of China there was 684 billion CNY ($109 billion) worth of foreign currency exchanged in January, a record for a single month. Large inflows of hot money can spur imbalances in China's economy as it feeds the already significant shadow banking system and speculative activity in real estate and commodities, making them more expensive for industry and households. China could simply try and clamp down on those capital inflows and that's still a possibility. But it has porous capital controls and the authorities want China to become an international finance center and for the CNY to one day become a reserve currency. Enforcing stricter capital controls would be a retrogressive step in terms of achieving those objectives. The downside of allowing CNY to appreciate, especially against USD, is that it will make many of China's exporters uncompetitive and that will create unemployment in the coastal cities. Also, rebalancing toward a consumer driven economy and more value added activity still has a long way to go. Depending how a CNY revaluation was managed it could suck in even more hot money if speculators were left anticipating further appreciation. But it should make the cost of fuel and food cheaper for Chinese citizens, and therefore sustain their disposable income, which would help develop a more consumer-driven economy. At the same time a stronger CNY would make it cheaper for Chinese companies to acquire assets abroad and encourage some outflows of money. Another important factor, the U.S. has stopped publicly accusing China of manipulating its currency. That could be an opportunity for China to review its currency peg without losing face and attribute such a move to domestic factors such as helping to control inflation.

Thanks for the head up. I missed the episode. Watched on their website. Don't catch the program live as much as I like to anymore. But with all the money the Chinese printed "they can build it but they won't come". And they also won't buy .... the Shanghai Stock Exchange index (as per chart) showing down channel while Dow/S&P/Dax/etc going the other way - for now anyway:

(NYTimes) - "Under an emergency deal reached early Saturday in Brussels, a one-time tax of 9.9 percent is to be levied on Cypriot bank deposits of more than €100,000 effective Tuesday, hitting wealthy depositors — mostly Russians who have put vast sums into Cyprus’s banks in recent years. But even deposits of less than that amount are to be taxed at 6.75 percent, meaning that Cypriot creditors will be confiscating money directly from retirees, workers and regular depositors to pay off the bailout tab". What it all means I don't know - except for what the chart says which presently is more down after a short correction maybe.

Far from it .

So you are saying you don't have an opinion agree or disagree. Ok you don't have an opinion. I would think (assuming again) you disagree. But does that mean the late Craig Schroeder of SMI, trader and educator of many decades (according to their website) and the current educator Bob Evans, who I believe is located in Phoenix hmmm did somebody say Phoenix, does not know what they are talking about ...... when it comes to W trend's? You might be right. I definetely don't know much about Wyckoff methods. I know he is a legend and many top traders use his methods to this day. But I also know there are other legends and other methods that work equally well. Seems common sense to me though when talking of trend the timeframe matters. No ifs, and or buts.

Ok, that speaks for itself. You don't want to answer. Fair enough.

I try not to make assumptions about what someone means but without a reply, to the question, I assume you and the SMI folks don't see eye to eye on Wychoff. At least on the snippet I posted.

And about my previous question on post# 400 :question:

My mistake but as I said, I was responding to someone else's post who obviously also doesn't know all things wyckoff too does not consider ratio's. I'm obviously in the wrong topic then so see you over on "Gold Bullish or Bearish" where you have been know to drop a wychoff point or two without blowback.

But on the subject of trends: "Trends can be defined in three directions and in at least three time frames. There are up trends, down trends and horizontal trends normally referred to as trading ranges. Trends can be short term in nature, intermediate term or long term. The time frames that one Wyckoff trader uses to define the three durations of trends may be different than another Wyckoff trader uses" quote found here, agree or disagree? Wyckoff Stock Market Institute | archives

Don't know if he even considered ratio's back in the day, but that is what I was responding to (a previous post). And it is plain to see the monster downtrend in the ratio. Granted price itself does not show anything near similar. But as I said I am no longer referring to price trends here.

In the ratio (i.e. chart posted). I gave up talking trend here on price itself.

I consider many factors.

It helps the conversation to post a Gold / Spx spread ratio chart. But that is one hell of a downtrend to have to support and reverse:

I believe although it hasn't moved higher by much price is a little, relatively speaking, overextended but will probably move sideways to up for the next week or so but then will resume downtrend once wave 4 completes:

Has no bearing on a short term trades but down the line hmmmm: Gold Sales From Soros Reveal 12-Year Bull Run Decay: Commodities Gold Sales From Soros Reveal 12-Year Bull Run Decay: Commodities - Bloomberg "Gold’s worst start to a year in a quarter century and the biggest sales by investors on record are increasing concern that bullion’s longest rally since the end of World War I is ending."

4% maybe. 40% no way. The (simple) math doesn't add up. Where are all the profits coming from? Uncle Ben at the Fed.

Hope ya didn't strain your brain too much coming up with that one. Save some of that for your glory years.

Although yesterday (Monday) was a narrow range inside day I wouldn't read too much into it being low volume. As per following chart Mondays historically are the lowest volume day of the week: