SunTrader

The world has excess factory capacity. All the major central banks are printing money Many euro nations as well as China, and until recently the U.S., have excess residential housing stock. And then on top of that most of the multinationals are flush with cash on their balance sheets. So who is left for the banks to loan to? :shrug:

For Gold bounce is very probable but not a bottom. The way I see it Friday was average up day - price or volume wise. And I prefer RSI 60/40 as a trend identifier but never B/S based on these levels. Also the reverse for S&P, might be sideways to down a day or two, then uptrend to resume. Which if I am right means Gold likely has further downside to come. Watch Gold/SPX ratio and Gold/Silver ratio for heads-up.

Tom DeMark found the same thing when he asked traders at his workshops to draw trendlines and got all kinds of variations. And basically the reason why he came up with his trendlines "rules" - especially that they be drawn from swingpoints right to left and not the traditional left to right.

One thing I'm sure of is that I am never sure of WHAT IS GOING HAPPEN. Also what is exactly is bargain prices? Some thought 1800, then others 1700, then ...........

That is what an article I read a couple of weeks ago stated. I'd post the link if I still had it. Fed added mortgages and treasuries to its balance sheet. So it was just asset switch. No additional money printed - digitally or otherwise.

So then I guess you are an investor and not a trader? Or if you are a trader why treat Gold any different than any other market.

Come on Bob, that was sarcasm. And P. is outa sight, outa his mind - and on ignore. But I'll let you know when I am no longer comfortable staying short.

Coming up on two years now. But that won't stop the Gold Bugs from saying the bottom is. Oh wait now the bottom is here No now it is. Well it might go a little lower but then definitely. WTF it wasn't supposed to break that support. :haha:

Think the thread should have been titled Will Gold Prices Slice in Half from Alltime High set in Sept '11? Looking more and more likely.

:doh: That's right.

Gold can't go lower because A) Big jewelry purchases in India B) Fed keeps printing money C) China is stashing their new wealth in bullion D) Central banks everywhere are stocking up E) Fiat money always loses in the end. Someone forgot to tell all those that are selling. 1255 do I hear 1255, sold. 1254 do I hear 1254, sold. 1253 .... 1252 ....

If you hold ............ long enough anything works. But fibs are about price and .............. time.

I'm not looking to get started. The link only points out some of the false claims. I could pick apart some of the points made there if I wanted to kill some time. BTW both fundamental and technical studies are full of false claims as well. Science itself has had many things once thought to be true that are no longer or were outright exaggerations. Fibs are just numbers after all but as I think I have posted previously numerous times on TL a Dow chart from the 1920's showing their effectiveness long before the crowd "discovered" them. And others criticize them.

Can you provide specific examples - such as which are not found in nature and which charlatans are making the claim?

Bounce which always happens when things move too quickly, but downtrend is waiting around the corner to resume:

Thread should be renamed Gold Bearish or BEARISH. I don't see a bottom anytime soon.

Don't know what p-eewee had to say since I have him on ignore but if he thinks support is near, well step and buy. Not me.

How about that Uptrend. :did I say that?: :ciao: to that for awhile longer.

Worked like a charm since last Oct excluding latest yen drop but not so good in the past (not shown on chart):

Ooooh good one. Some might call that abrasive. :rofl:

Don't be sorry. Be educated. About what does and doesn't work. And don't worry about if the price is $20 or $2000 or believe it or not free. I know of many traders who have wasted big money on books and systems probably because they thought they had to "pay up" to get something good.

The joke is on you if you believe that. Price doesn't always determine value.

Bubbles by their very definition are not controllable. True one can never precisely tell when they will pop. But the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not liking things lately:

Now Gold has "only" retraced 61.8%.

Gold’s Secret Enemy: The Yen Gold?s Secret Enemy: The Yen People have blamed gold's 18 percent decline this year on many different factors: a lack of fear in the market, a bubble that has burst, talk that the Federal Reserve will soon end qualitative easing. But some market participants say the single biggest factor could be the Japanese yen. "It is difficult to deny the strong correlation between the yen's decline and the consequent collapse in gold," said Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services managing director and contributor to CNBC.com's "Futures Now." "As in comedy, timing is everything, and the announcement of drastic liquidity in measures in Japan, coinciding with massive long positions in the gold market, led to the exaggerated downward move in gold." As the Bank of Japan's easing policy has led the yen to decline in value, the U.S. dollar has gained relative value. And a stronger dollar logically means that people are willing to pony up fewer of those dollars for gold, so gold prices should drop. The trade seemed to have turned around last week, when the yen surged in value. But that wasn't enough for gold to make a serious run, even in the short term. "At this point, even a stabilizing yen may not be enough to stop the negativity surrounding the gold market," Iuorio said. "When the catalyst disappears, it doesn't always mean that sentiment will revert back." Worse, the yen's recent strength turned back around on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting announcement, which some think will lead to more yen weakness. "In the last week or two, the markets have been disappointed by what dollar/yen has done," said Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "But I bought dollar/yen, because I think the Bank of Japan is scheduled to do something on asset purchases to reignite confidence." In the longer term, Gordon believes that increasing U.S.Treasury yields will drive dollar/yen higher. He says a spike in yields would be good for gold if it reflected inflation fears. But since this move is due to expectations that the Fed will roll down bond purchases, Gordon says it will offer no help to the gold trade. "This is an inflation-less recovery, and that leaves gold behind," Gordon said. Gordon believes gold will be flat. But Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management takes an even dimmer view of gold, due to her expectations for the dollar. "Simply because there's some uncertainty, you could see a bit of gold strength in the short term," Lien told CNBC.com. "But I believe the dollar is still headed higher, and for that reason, I'm still bearish on gold." Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees that dollar strength should continue to lead to gold weakness. "All good things must come to an end, and the ominous specter of a stronger dollar, higher rates, stronger stock market and absence of inflation—all against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating chart at the tail end of a decade-long bull market—strongly suggests that there are superior alternative investments than gold at the current time," Ross said. "Now, if you want to keep some around so that you can call yourself an intellectual and sleep better at night," Ross added, "then be my guest."