SunTrader

XAUUSD 38.2% retracement last major swing down 161.8% external retracement of wave b 38.2% expansion of wave a 100% projection of wave a from wave b bottom (in other words wave c equals wave a) And for extra measure a lin reg channel. Tight fib zone has kept a lid on price moving higher - so far. It might very well break through it and if it does that will be a signal of strength and probably much more significant room to the upside to come. Or - as I expect the fib zone holds, price resumes downtrend which signals the 6/28/13 $1180.75 bottom will be taken out.

Brilliant! Long term trend (past two years) is down and someone scalps the other direction then scalps with the trend. All the while market is down more than a percent alone today. Again, brilliant.

You will get out of something (fibs, trendlines, whatever) as much as you put in - time, effort, brain cells used.

I use RSI but with OB/OS levels of 60/40 but not actually to look for overbought/oversold conditions - instead as a trend identifier. In an uptrend oscillator shouldn't (with minor exceptions) go below 40 and the flip side in downtrend (again with minor exceptions) shouldn't go above 60. Exactly as your mentioned although you were keying in on the 50 mid level line. How about this put an RSI with a length of 2, yes 2 and OB/OS of 95/5. The oscillator naturally flips back and forth rapidly so rather than include in the attached pic which would look skitterish on a years worth of data I have just added to price bars arrows on the day after, for say a 95 or higher OB or 5 or lower OS reading on Monday, arrow for entry is by Tuesday's bar. Some were premature like any signal so of course I don't use this in isolation if I were to take the signal. Only when other factors confirm.

Think you hit the nail on the head. We will probably know the downtrend has resumed when Asia (the traders that is) start selling again and volume picks up. Or London or New York. :shrug: More likely all of the above.

Went down a further 250 points before bottoming. Move currently looks corrective, like a dead cat bounce and downtrend to resume probably any day now.

Hope you aren't taking my questioning seriously. More importantly, I guess, is I hope Ricardo isn't either. But then I just realized what part of the forum this thread is located.

You do realize using simple math this would be approx 200 to 500% per year. Won't be long till you've made $ 2.5 million then.

Nope, Silver neither.

I see wave 4 being complete or maybe slightly higher before wave 5 gets underway. I have to admit I would have liked to have seen Friday's close be below Thursday's low for it to look really good. But let's see how the week starts off. Maybe the low is in, and maybe it isn't. Agree Silver looks sickly and believe it has been "the tail waging the dog" for awhile now so as it goes so goes Gold.

I am by no means a Gann expert but I believe that chart is off. It doesn't appear to use be set to one unit of price to one unit of time. Price unit can be $1 or $4 or $10 etc. to each time unit daily etc.

How about a chart or two. We all know the news or can find it for ourselves.

Short on time atm now but it is a Stochastic RSI combo. There are 3 different length settings - short, medium, long. I watch all three. Pretty good at catching reversals, especially when they are line up. But like anything it works and it doesn't work. Just one more factor to consider though. Time, price, pattern and hopefully an indicator or two confirms.

What I posted over on Forex F...... on July 7th: "Here is the daily fib clusters I see above the current zone: 1295-1304 most probable for a reversal, 1323-1334 and 1363-1372". Have to see if it holds. Thinking it won't and will be ready to pounce if yesterday's (Thurs) low is taken out. Only thing is Fridays doesn't usually have a wide range so might have to wait till next week.

Nope I've seen it many times before.

And you hold for how long when you are entering on an hourly chart but looking among many timeframes a monthly chart going back multiple years? Its none of my business but I think you know what I'm getting at. Why? If you are looking at weekly/monthly support/resistance levels you must do a lot of waiting for price to come into range.

You provide little but expect someone to comment. And my guess only what you want to hear. But again its hard to say. C ya. An over 40 yr old.

I hear traders all the time say they are playing with house money - their gain from a previous winning trade. Money in their hand or in their account is their money - to use to win more or lose. I know this will seem negative but most likely you will lose. Traders make all kinds of do and do not lists. Top 10 trader mistakes, top 15 trader rules, best time to trade, favorite indicators - book authors - strategies, etc. etc. When it all comes down to one thing - managing risk. Don't manage risk it will overwhelm any amount of big winners.

What timeframe do you trade? Meaning what is your typical holding period.

What I find strange is that you bought options at all if as you say you have very limited experience. Option profitability is heavily skewed towards those who write and sell them than those who buy them. Not always. If you get the right price and what you want to happen happens with time left on them options can pay off big. But if everything doesn't go right it is throwing good money after bad.

So exactly how many times does it need to break 1.28xx before you throw in the towel?

The problem is you posed it to someone who has diarrhea of the keyboard. :puke: I see nothing wrong with a little ES or a little Crude but what does coffee got to do with Gold?

I see Gold market has finally gotten the memo Dollar is ripping higher - and the Euro and Pound the other way.

Get that pencil ready to check it off.

If you are satisfied with average results.