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feb2865
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Everything posted by feb2865
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Trading the big DOW is kinda tricky, well at least back in 93-95 Voulme used to be somehow erratic. Used to be a safe-haven for fund managers to cover their cash. Back in the day of stock's daytrading golden era (90's) the dow was mainly used as a tracking device. Speculators never looked at the dow as a daytrading vehicle and I don't think that has changed. I traded the DOW via Datek in 1997 and I got screwed couple of times due lack of fill As I said, I still have use for it and to me still is a wondeful way to track the market. Besides, is probably the most watched index as everybody is waiting to break 12,000. I have the big dow as part of my sectors. I also noticed not too long ago that Dow trasnport ($TRANS) moves faster than the DOW but not as fast as the futures. I hav no idea as to why but I've been trackin them for some time now and it happens very often. I have it on my sectors too. James, I will suggest to keep an eye on the S&P retail index ($rlx) has been putting some buying pressure on the market lately. New money is coming to this sector, fueled by the decrease of crude oil pirces, therefore consumers has this extra-money (new money) to spend. Yesterday RLX went up as high as 3:50% Raul
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I did trade the DOW some years ago Nowadays, it usually (not always) move slower than futures. New money are comming into futures especially e-mini's I used to track them(DOW/SPX) against other instruments. Like for instance, If futures were moving but DOW/SPX were quiet, usually that movement won't last. It can be used the other way around. Still have them on my charts, but I include them on my sector's list. I prefer to track them by price better than charts. As to trade them, well if you have the money. Personally I don't recomend it. A friend of mine told me about 2 years ago that futures and e-mini's are the "future" Now I think he's rigth Still, the "big boys" pour insane amounts of money into the DOW/SPX Only time will tell. Raul
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Thank you Ant
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Just a friendly advice Traders and doctors share something in comon. If doctors were focused on how much the will make off every patience, their concentration will be spoiled, therefore will get into trouble. Same is for traders. In the moment traders start looking for "how much I can possibly make if....." then disaster follows. Talk from experience.I've been there/done that....many times Traders have a huge emotional pressure as the market is looking to rip them off, especially those days that you're in the wrong side of the market(for whatever reason). Your job is to keep your head up above the water and wait for the waves to settle. If you want to talk about numbers, in this business, you can win as much as you can lose. It's that simple. Concentrate yourself in mastering the trade and I assure you, money will stick to you like crazy glue. About trading capital, anything less than 25k in my experience is just play-money unless you have a plan to increase your equity(and have patience) while you're keep bringing food on the table with a 9-5 job. Last thing....maybe a little out of subject but Help is available for free and @ the speed that internet brings You only need to start diggin' Raul
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well yes I did have friends that look into this business, and they inquired me on how it should be done and everything. I say that, knowledge is king. You need to know what you're doing. At least some basic concepts. Probably I am going to throw some old-fashioned rules here but, understanding the correlation between the economy sectors(bank, defense, semiconductors, pharmaceutical etc), the Dow Jones and the market itself to me is necessary in order to see what's going on. Other suggestion is to understand the concept of supply and demand and how the market create dynamics around these levels. There's plenty of information available outhere. Soultrader has wonderful videos and books on this site . I sincerely doubt you can get any better input outhere that what you have here. With education comes experience. How long does it take to be succesful in this business? That's up to you. I never set a time table on anything. Whenever you're ready..well you're ready. What are you waitng for? Once you now what you're doing and you have a set of rules in place, start trading. Jump in. Demo trade for a while if you want or go live with 1-2 contracts, pips, shares, whatever your market is. Some traders prefer to jump in a go live in order to break the emotional barrier. Whatever works for you. If youd decide to go live, please be sure to know the pro's and con's. Don't become yourself an educational junkie. It's good to be updated on what's going on. But some traders are looking constantly to plug their umbilical chords into everything they see or hear with the hope of getting close to have an A.B DIck printing equipment, that spits $100.00 bills every second. Especially those days when your own "set of rules" seems like not working at all. Trading is a game of probabilities. Your job as a trader is to turn these probabilities into possibilities more often than not. You're going to get burned (for sure) sometimes. The key is to get burned but not roasted. Managing your bankroll is another thing you need to master. Again, there's plenty of help outhere. This is basically what I tell friends and people who I helped in the past. Regards Raul
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I agree with Nebraska on the ethanol intiatives US goverment is taking to reduce dependecy on oil. I don't think will top $100.00 There's a big (huge) debate among economist about Pres. Bush manipulating oil prices via strategic oil inventories. I totally disagree with that. I have no faith in poiliticians as I believe they reach to a point of which they become "sophisticated liars" But I think Pres Bush is serious about cutting or at least reducing our dependency of oil. Moreover they're been effective in reducing the inmediate demand on oil, as you see the crude has been coming down. Just look at the OPEC and their desperate measures on cutting off output. That's a clear indication of supply exceeding demand. You know what happens when supply exceeds demand rigth? About winter, Natural gas is usually a derivate that skyrockets on the winter. But all natural gas inventories(underground storage), in all regions(east and west) exceeds 5- year highs as sept 2006. We migth see a balance between supply/demand on natural gas. Raul
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Some advice here from an old dog Newbies has this tendency to look for this formula (I am not necesarily talking about the holy grail) that will make them comfortable and will give them confidence about what thier doing. That's why the switch from Fibbonaci, to RSI, to Stochs, ect ect etc. At the end they're frustarted because they don't know what they're doing. This is the point where they start to blow off their accounts. Even losing in paper is frustrating becuase you lose confidence not only in the market but within yourself. The problem is that they rely blindly on that formula, indicator, marker, etc whitout knowing what's really happening on the market. "When the RSI have a divergence with price, you sell/buy" or "when the market bounces off 61% fib level you buy/sell" They take the signal and most often than not, the market turns around against them. Sounds familiar doesn't it?? Don't quit. Just stop trading for a while Please forget about tape reading, market profile, moving average crossovers, I mean...no strategy no technique...nothing Clear off your charts. You're going to draw two horizontal lines. Up/Down. Up for the uptrend and down for the downmove That's it Use lower time frames. I'll suggest 2 and 5 minutes. After a while put 30 minutes charts to see the trend for the day You're going to look for how the market accepts or reject certain levels(area) during the day Check in what area(not price) the market loses steam. Then reverses. Place a line in there. Practice that for a while. check 'n see how many times the market went back to that area. Now the market went to another area (shifted). Then look to where it stopped and lost steam. Also check how fast/slow the market reach to that area. Look for correlation between time frames. Soon you're going to see that there's a "bracket" in your charts rigth?? well, check if the market breaks this "bracket" and see how it goes Please don't put a time table over this practice. You have all the time of the world and nobody is pushing you............... Relax Now seems that you know what's happening rigth? You're opening the market chest and watching how the heart beats. Before, you had no idea. You know there was a heart pumping. Now you see it Very soon this practice will start to make sense to you and when that happens, incorporate daily pivot points. Then you take it from there. Take your time. Like I said before...relax. Again, don't trade. Don't even paper trade. Markets are based on laws of supply and demand. That's the real core. You're just watching when these forces shifts. Stop forcing you to be succesful in the market. I assure you that will cripple the ability to understand what's going on. It's good , well I should say, it's necessary to have a drive in order to be succesful. But here you need a "controlled" drive. You'll get that with experience. Don't worry, you'll make it Souldtrader has a wonderful site . Stay around. Ther's plenty of wonderful and experienced traders here willing to help. Don't put a time table in your learning process. I have the feeling you've just read many books, articles about tthe markets, how to trade, etc. If it's so, stop reading. You don't need more technique. You need practice and patience. I suggest don't even come close to tape reading. Not yet. Tape reading is diffcult and traders outhere are in conflict on how the tape should be used. You don't need more confusion. You need clarity so you have a free mind and be able to understand what you're doing. Sorry for the long post Regards Raul
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At what age do you plan to retire?
feb2865 replied to Follow The Trend's topic in General Discussion
I voted never as long as I can watch the screen and I can make descicions rationally I will play the markets I have slowed down a little . I don't trade everyday like I used to . As I get older maybe I'll slow down more, I don't know. I will like to add something to the thread with all respect. Family matters Trading is stressful and demand ton of time and concentration. Well you all know that. In my particular case, I have a 10 years old daugther. When she was getting around 7/8 years old, she slowly and carefully, in a sophisticated way, was pulling me out of the screen. She's now hitting me with "Daddy why don't you retire?" (I've been in this business since very young) Well, you know how kids are. The thing is that , if you have kids and they're growing, they will try to get your attention and the screen seems like an enemy to them. Creating a balance is the key, but family, especially kids put a lot of weigth in your shoulders when it comes down to trading. Other than money, trading creates a challenge and excitement. Also makes you a better disciplined and well-balanced person, well at least for me. I don't see my life when I get older, throwing chips on a poker table or spending the whole day at the mall. Trading when you get older will make you feel that you're still productive. I apologize if I hijacked the thread Reagrds Raul -
The ladder I use tells me how many contracts are traded at any price, plus gives me very much the same information that time&sales shows. I look for the bigger sellers/buyers and how many contracts they trade. Plus placing an order is convenient. I will definitely check infinity software
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Yes is very much like that picture of Tradestation Matrix. I tried to make a copy of the ladder I use it but won't do it. The one I am using allows me to place orders off the ladder. The software I am using is Trade Navigator from cannon trading. The volume bars at the ladder(in your case the matrix) are one of the pilars of my trading. If I don't have it I feel blind. I've only been trading futures for like a year and 1/2. Crude oil would be good as long it ranges from 58-62 a barrel Rigth now we're heading to a short rally maybe toping off 65-68 before will be affected by the laws of gravity
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Yes Lisa I use this nick name a lot 41 years old....but still feels like 25 Trading since 1985 1/2 of my life in this business Time goes so fast don't you think?
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well I'll take this as a compliment 'cause I admire your videos and coments . Crude has been good lately since price is been droping like a bomb. Pivot points in crude work almost like magic. Market profile for futures is like trend lines and bigger time frames(4hr and up) for forex. The best way to make sense of trading. The software I use have this neat feature on the price ladder in which you can see how many contracts are traded @ any specific price. Maybe I am acting a little naive here 'cause I havent' try any other software with price ladder. Regards Raul
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A humble suggestion Why don't you look at currency futures? I traded Forex via market makers and I honestly say that one time too many I had problems of re-quoting, stop hunting, etc. Currency futures broker comissions are lower ($30.00 spread average for EUR/USD if you're trading full lots) versus 4-6 dollars round trip with futures brokers. I believe currency futures quote the pip(contract)@ $12.50. Just remember, most of Forex brokers outhere, are market-makers. They make the market for you. In other words, you don't have a way to verify if you're price is on real time or the real thing. I remember once I plotted 3 charts of different brokers to time price action between them. I found levels between 3-5 pips away from each other. I even tried ECN's type brokers and I had problems with them. Another thing you should consider: Forex brokers are getting filled with all kind of new-traders coming into the market, lured by all the advertising outhere, promising "quick riches" and "this is a 1.5 trillion dollar market a day that never sleeps" things like that. Besides the market itself is not regulated under SEC act of 1933/1936 and 1940. Brokers can say and, promise you whatever they want. Demand is pretty high for this product. So you now what happens when demand rises. Don't get me wrong, I believe forex is a wonderful market as I did very well. Not to sound contradictory, I pulled of due the facts I mentioned above(and waking up @2:00AM EST to trade the London Market). There's some facts about forex, news, slippage and volume that by popular concept is completely wrong and misleading, but I prefer to cut my post in here as I feel it's a little too long. Regards Raul
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Support/Resistance, Pivot points, tape reading. Basically the tools I use(and a lot of discretion). I trade ES (mini) and crude oil
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Took me 1 1/2 year of constant reading and practice 'til my eyeballs hurt but it was worth it. I gained a lot of confidence and began to trade live when I understood the laws of supply and demand that rules the market.
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Hello friends It's good to find a nice-informative place like this. It's so clean and well-prepared As a pivot/support/resistance trader for some time now, this site feels like home to me. Congratulations, Soultrader for an excellent site Looking foward to learn and to contribute to the best of my knowledge Raul