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feb2865
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Everything posted by feb2865
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Regulatory action against Tradestation Securities
feb2865 replied to feb2865's topic in Market News & Analysis
I don't think it will affect users. It's just a warning. My friend who was the one that sent me this information, told me that she's really in the market for a new broker. According to her, Tradestation's execution has been poor lately. She's probably trying to link one to the other, but I don't see this is such a big deal. I am confused about the parameters NFA is using for "good faith" That's very obscure and "intentioned" from NFA side in my opinion. I sincerely hope Tradestation doesn't get affected by the poor judgement of this agency. I persoanlly don't see NFA have such experience in regulate futures. Raul -
Regulation 9B.14, in that TradeStation knowingly entered bids and offers into the e-cbot system other than in good faith for the purpose of executing bona fide transactions. there's more information in here BASIC Case Summary Dear traders This is just for information purposes only. Just to keep you heads up...just in case In my experience, a violation doesn't necesary involves malice, or intend. But just in case, keeps your eyes open. Regards Raul
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count me in
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Does anybody had any problems at the opening on globex?. My charts on ER2 got frozen for like 10 minutes at the opening. Thanks Raul
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yeah they're frozen and I am not with tradestation so I think it's something at Globex. I missed the gap this morning
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My following statements are completely subjective. They're based solely on my own experience It’s not the holy grail neither the absolute truth of trading You guys are talking about exits. Please don’t narrow you vision in just that, look at the bigger picture. I struggled for many years with exits. Believe me , I used all kind of strategies, methods, etc. Looking at the bigger picture, I realized one day that not only exit rules but the whole trading strategy, method system whatever you want to call it becomes very much like fingerprints. I could say that exits, as opposed to entries, requires far more practice and concentration. I could say that I ‘expect†the market to reach certain at certain speed, if not I am out. But you could disagree with me. Tell you what, it works for me but not necessarily will work for you. Took me years to find out what really works form me and it’s exactly what I said above. I play the market. I am not at the mercy of the market once I get a position. When I am trading, I become a little arrogant in my own space. I am in this business to make a buck people, not for a charitable cause. The market MUST give me what I want or simply I am out. Will the market care? Of course not. Will I care?. neither. The market is not my friend and I’m not his friend either. Will this work for you?. .probably not But has worked for me for many years to the point I presently trade for the fun of it(yes fun but I will always try to make a buck anyway .) When I lose, I am satisfied. I did the best I could but I understand that trading is a game of probabilities. We are speculators. We expect the market to move in our direction But there’s no guarantee. Everytime you enter on a trade, your stake is at risk. Let your position mature for a period of time but keep your head up. Please draw this rule on your forehead and practice it . It’s a truly game of balance that takes time to master. Either I win or lose, I simply shut down my computer and go somewhere else. There’s plenty of stuff to do besides trading. I don’t care if the market blasted off after I killed my position. Good for them. Good for me that I reached my objective, at least my money is in my pocket, and not in some other’s lad pocket For instance, John Carter has some excellent seminars at CBOT. The thing is, the trader who will benefit the most form his methods is…yes John Carter. After all it’s his baby and that baby spits dollars for him I am sure. Will his strategies work for you?? Maybe yes, but maybe you go with something like…â€ÂI like his strategy but I don’t make sense of the squeeze†Pick what’s work for you and leave the rest to Mr. Carter and his own game. Yes it’s good to have a mentor. But they can only show you the way you have to open the door with your own little hands. After all this years, there’s something I strongly believe will never go out of style: Support and resistance. No matter what your entry/exit method is, the more your get at hand playing these levels, the better trader you’ll become. If you look at one of my charts, you will have in your eyes a truly resemblance of a stack of sliced ham. Yes I slice the market. I pre-arranged everything the night before. I even make a little script on what I expect from the market, including of course, Pre-determined possible entry/exit marks and economic calendar for the next day, in order to keep my ear on the ground. Does it work for me? Yes, more often than not. Will they work for you? You need to find out. Raul
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Top Ten International Economic Indicators
feb2865 replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
How about Tick and Trin? do they put any weigth on mini russell? -
count me in this time I'll try mini russell
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Top Ten International Economic Indicators
feb2865 replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
That's interesting I'll be checking on that Monday morning YM is $5.00 per point and ES is $12.50 per tick I have a chart setup on close lines using YM and Mini russell very much like moving averages and I notice their moves are quite similar sometimes Have you tried another one besides ER? Thanks Raul -
Top Ten International Economic Indicators
feb2865 replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
Torero This is a question a little off context here but why do you trade mini russell?? I notice that it moves side-by-side literally with YM. You're the second trader I heard who trades the mini russell and I am curious. Actually next time we're on the chatroom I would like to try it and see what happens. Thanks in advance Raul -
H1 to H4 and L1 to L4 Levels somehow alike pivots points but calculations are different. The most significant levels are H3/L3 If the market approach these levels a possible breakout is about to happen. Extremely powerful if you trade Forex. I don't recomend it for futures.. I have a camarilla code for Metatrader. I used camarilla levels to trade EUR/CHF but not anymore as just two simple horizontal lines will do the trick. The whole Idea on camarilla levels is to look for periods of acumulation/distribution in longer time frames (4hr, daily, weekly) and spots possible breakouts.
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I read the first chapter and seems interesting. He doesn't say where you should have an entry but I read somewhere that possible entry range is something that they provide in a daily basis depending on the market. I smell some co$t involved. The problem with this type of strategies is that if you have a significant S/R - Pivot line nearby and there's not enough meat for a rally, chances are you get halted on the line. Maybe it will work better on energies and grains, like nasdaq said Maybe will work within a 1 to 1-1/4 point deviation from A/C on ES and 4-5 points on YM but this is just a theory. Again all depends on how far/close the price is from any significant level. Anyway, any deviation from the channel has to be done as the market shifts from one price range to another. To me this is another version of a channel breakout system. But it's a better one because you don't play the breakout as the market pulls away from the channel. Another thing I like is about timing you entries. Raul
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Hello everyone I was in the chatroom today (I had a great time by the way) and somebody, I believe was Nasdaq5048 said something about ACD Method of Mark Fisher. I haven't read the book yet but as far as I read and talk to other traders, I see some logic especially on opening range strategy. I am curious. I would like to see some comments on this method, especially what do you determine as an opening range timeframe for whatever market you're trading. Regards Raul
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Count me in
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Hello James I'll be there Raul
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Ant Sorry for the delay. This time of the year change of weather put a toll on me. I only trade energy contracts electronically, I should make that point clear. Yes agricltural Mini's are pit-traded contracts and I personally had no problems whatsoever. Ethanol has 1 month contract period the rest are 2 months. I prefer silver because tends to stick better on pivot points than gold. Pivot points are my main tool for technical trading. I also use S/R levels but I also look for any price in particular in which the market had a turning point within the past 4 or 5 days. My trading is very simple: I watch how the market gravitates on these levels and I act accordingly. The order of my preference on Agricultural contracts is based on how they perform around pivots and S/R levels. I don't use a market maker for Forex. I will tell you in private what I use. I am so sorry for my short answers but I'm not feeling very good lately Regards Raul
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My reasons as to stop trading crude oil are more fundamental than technical. I am an old dog and I learn that one need to create a balance between both. I trade what I see but I always keep my ear on the ground. I shorted Crude since $77.00 a barrell and now is $57.00 I sincerely don't want to play greed.. Energy sectors are very much like the "flavor of the moment" and sometimes the crowd mentality changes from one side to the other in a heartbeat. There's a seasonal side on energies as well. I advise caution on this market. Agricultural is my probably favorite market to trade. My preferences in this order 1)Corn and ethanol 2)Soybeans 3)Cattle 4)Cocoa 5)Sugar 6) If I need to activate my supply of adrenaline - pork bellies These markets are slow-paced and they trends very well. Like every market, you need to keep your ear on the ground and paper trade until you get the hang of it. Ther's some seasonals for comodities but they're not as fast-moving as the one's for energy. Soybeans is a good market for start. I love silver - better than gold. This christmas you'll find me on heating oil for sure. Natural gas is another one I trade but I am not interested as inventories are to the top. I trade all markets electronically only. It's better to be safe than sorry. I had big issues with pit-traded markets in the past. Just my experience. The only market I swing trade is Forex. My favorite instrument - EUR/CHF Unless EUR/USD make me an offer I can refuse (1.18-1.20 area) I won't trade it. But it's a good market to trade on a long term basis. About EUR/CHF This is the reason why I love this instrument The swiss franc will never move strong against the Euro. I don't see it happening at least in our generation. The swiss franc is a recognized currency only because of the worldwide perception that switzerland is a stable-solid country. This is a long story I can talk about it later, I'll get to the point Look at EUR/CHF on the 240 min chart. You'll notice that most of the time this instrument is on a range bound for almost the whole year . Just perfect for a bracket trading. Just be careful on geo-political stuff as it rocks this instrument like a hurricane. I trade EUR/CHF for the whole year. Just change my position from long to short and of course take profits. I don't trade bonds by the same reason I never traded YM - just lack of interest. Raul
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I would like to express my thankfulness to James, Ant and everybody that has contributed in this forum about the E-Mini Dow (YM) I started to trade YM on Monday 16 2006. As I am slowly pulling away from Crude oil (I think is going to stuck in 57-60 range) I was looking for an alternative other than energy/comodities sector. I traded ES (Mini S&P) and I found it kinda jumpy for my style. Nothing wrong with trading ES it's just my personal and very subjective point of view. I found YM very well balanced, not too slow but sufficiently fast with a decent volaliltily. I always trade heating oil (That's how I pay for my daugther's christmas gifts, please don't tell her) around this time. Other than heating oil, YM will pose a suitable alternative for me to trade this winter . Regards Raul
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Identifying a top? How do you sense market weakness?
feb2865 replied to stephens's topic in Technical Analysis
Thank you James Tick is one of my favorites indicators as well as Trin. They're indicators based on "real time" as oppose to mathemaical indicators based on history. I also watch the $prem (I don't know how it goes on tradestation) to check on fair value(not the CNBC fair value that has no sense to me whatsoever) and program buying/selling. I don't like the "Ticki"as it behaves like a chihuahua stoned in caffeine - too fast for me. I would like to point out that S/R levels, pivot lines, Fibos, etc everything that's foward thinking requires certian level of expericence in order to see how the market is going to behave on these levels. That's why I strongly advice any new trader or trader to be to begin watching the market in real time. To look on what happens when the market reach these levels. I notice than many traders have this tendency to pull the triger too fast on these levels. In my experience, I look on how fast/slow the market is approaching to the line . If it loses steam, I wait on the sidelines looking for a fade play(or whatever happens next). Sometimes is moving @ the speed of sound and you have no choice but to get in or stay flat. These are just guidelines. They're not carved in stone. Sometimes the market "violate" these levels and then reverses. I tend to look more into a possible area around the level The good thing about it is that no matter what song the market will play, you're going to be prepared to dance with it. Or just sit in your hands and do nothing. Identifing a top/how to sense weakness...My advice to you, don't pay attention to that. Trade what you see. Be in constant alert and dance with the market accordingly. Don't let the market put you in a play mode. You're the trader so you're calling the shots. If the market is acting weird or is putting your stake at risk, just get out, preserve your capital and re-think your strategy(taking in consideration primarily how much capital you're risking and what risk/reward ratio you're using, hoping is not the infamous 3:1). Like James said, your're trading against other traders. This is a war my friend. Regards Raul -
Identifying a top? How do you sense market weakness?
feb2865 replied to stephens's topic in Technical Analysis
Trend qualifiers are a great weapon but they're more effective in short-shifted markets . Forex is suitable for it becuase takes longer to accumulate than any other market around, and it's cycles are short in comparrison to equities. As for intraday, it will give you many false signals. Unless you're a swing trader, I won't recomend their usage. For market reversals, as many traders in this forum advice, try Pivot lines and S/R Levels. I'll tel you why these levels are more effective on equities Pit traders still put a lot of pressure on this market. It's better to follow their "collective state of mind" . A pit trader easily dumps millions of dollars in one trade at any given moment. Unless you have millions of dollars at your disposal to play with the market, I advice not to trade against them. Their weapon of choice: Pivot lines and S/R levels. I suggest plot Pivot lines and S/R leves and just watch how the market react on these levels. Look for periods of consolidation and how the market fires back up/down from there. Supply and demand at it's finest. Depending on market conditions and the overall health, it wil either accept(and break) the price or reject( and bounce off) the price on these levels, more often than not. Usually after a period of consolidation. Your job is to be prepared ahead of time on whatever the market will do. Or stay flat. Spotting market reversals is something that takes time and practice. Just relax and observe the market from time to time without trading. You'll get the hang of it. Regards Raul -
Excellent Post EZ Your words brings plenty of wisdom much needed nowadays. I would like to point out as a cross reference with my last post There's plenty of deceiving advertising outhere about forex. Traders, please don't let them fool you. Forex is not the way to riches. It's probably the most difficult market to trade. Many newbies fall prey of these wrongful and deceiving advertising, everyday. It can be traded. But is not what everybody thinks. Regards Raul
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Ok Maybe I am going to sound a little contrarian here I sincerely hope not to offend anyone. First thing I would like to point out is..why did you choose forex for trading? I hope you're not in becuase is the most liquid market in the wolrd with 1.5 trillion dollars a day and a piece of that could be yours. That's completely deceiving and false from the speculation side. Hey nothing wrong with trade forex I did trade it for many years and altougth I am not as active on that market as I used to be, if EUR/USD Falls into 1.18 - 1.20 area I will probably be a participant. But that's me. The point is, if you're following Forex, I would like you to consider certain aspects concerning about this particular market. There's three ways you have to play Forex A) Market Makers B)ECN's - think there's only two offering this platform C)Currency futures. 1) Market makers - as the word suggest, they make the market for you - meaning the quote (real price) is something they make for you. I case you don't know, market makes are fed form the "interbanks" which is something similar to the internet. A web of framework interconected systems that routes money flow according to markets demands, volume, participants, etc. Also they perform clearing for bigger clients and of course market makers . If you're going to trade with market makers here's my suggestions 1) Master the art of mental stops - the minute you have a set of stop-losses in place , sooner of later you're going to get screwed. The reason for that is not necessarily market makers are hunting stops. But that's a big story I will tell you later. 2)Lower your gearing - lower your leverage Forex traders are doomed for that. 100:1 ratio even 400:1 ratio is insane and criminal. Put yourself in a 10:1 ratio and later on maybe 50:1 that's it. In my opinion high leverage is made up for nothing but to blow your account fast. 3) Make sure is a reputable company. B) ECN's - they are your"conection" to the interbank - My humble suggestion - don't trust them C) Currency futures - Instead of pips you're running on contracts. They have intraday margin requirements, from $500.00 up to $1000. You have the advantage of a clean -transparent quote. Again, if you're starting, go with 1-2 contracts. Do your homework and decide which one best for you. In my opinion, I prefer to have, as a trader, a clean-cut price and the peace of mind nobody is fooling around with my stops. Capital requirements - you can go as low as $250.00 in a mini account with a market maker. But let's be real - that's just play-money. I don't know how advance are you on trading. But if you're really starting( I assume you are) do us a favor and play demo for a while. I personally can give you a couple of nice set-ups especially designed for Forex. After a while you're going to take your stake into a much larger amount, only if you're disciplined and have patience. Like some nice traders are stating here, don't blow your money in expensive courses that will only tell you to trade only when the big mac is in tune with the EMA super 8 chicken strip line, you know these kinda stuff . If your get around this site, we will help you out To end this long post, Forex is a different yet unique market. You need to be familiar with the London Market, the New York Market, the Asian Market, etc how they correlate and what participants of these markets are looking for, currency correlations, the Friday syndrome, the Sunday evening deligth etc etc etc. Regards Raul
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Seems like energy sectors in general are hot nowadays. Crude oil mini's has $500.00 per contract/per dollar movement P/L. I've been trading Crude since it start falling from $76.00 (not swing just in-out - intraday) I think energy sectors are just the flavor of the moment and sooner or later oil(who's leading the pack) is going to start a long period of consolidation once it settles on a fair price. It's been part of a cycle. Something like MSFT in the 90's Traders and investors were dumping funds in Microsoft like chickens with the heads cut-off and the the infamous "antitrust case" came into play. Not only they lost a lotta money but a new cycle began in the Mircosoft history(Equity-related). All equity markets, including Forex, runs in cycles. When a new cycle begins, there's a shift between new and old participants in the market. It's a good time to review you strategy/system/method and be on the lookout of market behavior (this is the main reason why indicators are useless in my opinion) hope it makes sense. It's good to play cycles but you better have the foot on the brake. I can make this whole post about market cycle but let's get back the Dow Traders/investors/ CNBC/ The Boy Scouts of America/The Undertakers Anonymous Society/Barney/Hilary Duff...everybody was waiting for the DOW to break the 12k range on Friday....yes this past Friday. Didn't happen...why?? Very simple ....Oil went up and retail went down...these two animals are putting a lotta weigth in the market recently Keep an eye on them. My morning routine for years has been looking at the sectors and the dow (quote boards) before anything in the morning. Is the first thing I do. If the dow is down/up but sectors are mixed, that's a warning sign. Especially if is bewteen 10:00-11:00AM. Not trading on days like this, keep me out of the "choppy monster" very often Sometimes I look for any gaps - to fill(on choppy days) and maybe I go on and put a trade, but is on a case-by-case basis As to the YM - I have a confession to make. I never put any weigth on. I watched ocasionally the YM tracking the ES but that's it. Please correct me if I am wrong (maybe I read it somewhere else) but you have a post comparing ES vs YM and the value on axis advantage the YM represents, other than is $5.00 per point vs $12.50 per tick. I am going to look into that very closely. Thanks Raul
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I've been in love with crude oil for some time now. To me, crude oil works good on the pivot play as well S/R, but more on pivots. Sometimes I trade silver and gold. T-Bills 30yr I look at them from time to time. I also trade ES. I am looking to trade YM or at least watch it from next week on. Seems like ES moves a little faster sometimes don't you think? Sorry I was talking about DJIA is that we used to call it the BIG DOW back in the day. Dow futures is fairly new. Tracking YM and ES is a good idea. I am definitely going to incorporate that on my trading Raul