lote_tree

Ok, so I’m still waiting to see whether anybody can provide any evidence to support their positions on strategies they deem to be ineffective. I've been going through this thread and have seen claims being made that a certain method doesn’t work yet no rigorous data has been provided to support such a hypothesis. I thought evidenced based trading was the fulcrum of good trading but hey, what do I know. May be there is a floating teapot in outer space! :missy: If I came across somebody making a claim that they think XYZ method is ineffective I would immediately ask them the following questions: 1. Did you understand the basis of the methodology? 2. If you did understand the basis of the methodology how did you know that you understood it correctly? 3. Did you test the method over large enough data set? 4. Did you conduct out of sample tests? 5. Did you forward test the method and compare it to the statistics produced from your out of sample tests? 6. Did you test whether the method produces trades better than random? These are just a few that come to mind. Testing new trading strategies is like going out on many different dates. You have to interview the woman before you allow her into your bedroom. She will either turn you on or turn you off depending on what answers she gives. It's the same with trading strategies. You have to interview your trading strategy so it can prove to you whether it's worthy to have your hard cash inserted into! Treat new methods with respect and give them a chance through rigorous enquiry. One day you may get lucky with one and it may end up being a cash cow for you Peace..........

This system will work in the hands of an experienced trader. During my travels in the trading world I've come across a plethora of systems and I can honestly the K.I.S.S system is defo the way to go. I came across a chart of a multi million dollar trader. I know this thread is on the forex but his chart was a 30min candlestick chart of the S&P 500 futures. All he had on the chart was a 34 EMA. His sytem was simple, only take long trades if price is above the 34 EMA and only go short when price is below the 34 EMA. The highest probability long trades are when price penetrates above the 34 EMA and pulls back to test the 34 EMA for the first time. At that point he would use simple candlestick patterns to get him into the trade. Obviously reverse for shorts. There is a little more to his trading but that's 90% of his sytem. He makes over $10 million dollars every year just doing this. This proves that you don't have to be a super intellectual to trade or have some sort of highly complex mathamatical system. All you need is balls, discipline and the right attitude everyday! Cheers LT

Rob, I think it's wise to keep both scripts in mind for now given the merky picture. The way I see it I'll consider a bullish script if three scenarios play out: 1. Valid WPC's above the 18D POC. 2. Decisive WRB through the 18D POC (This could happen next week when Geithner announces his plans on how he's going to deal with toxic assests on Bank balance sheets. Having said that, I don't generally like taking WRB's with news but Geithner's announcement is fundamentally very key and could tip the balance in favour of the bulls.) 3. Stable +5 LCC line pressure that looks well bid through the 18D POC. We haven't experienced offsetting support at the weekly level yet for a trend change. The S&P reveresed near the 660 level, when looking at the weekly there's still some swing freedom left with support at the weekly of 600. It's just one more piece of the puzzle that's making me favour the short side for now but as you said, more info would be nice. Cheers Lote

Try this: http://finviz.com/ Best free stock screener I've ever seen.. Cheers Lote

The reason why you're getting negative feedback is because in this game you can't really buy skill or practicle experience. This site is devoted to traders that take their craft very seriously and it would be an insult to most of us if somebody came a long and promoted a free luch way of trading. Now with that being said, can you secretly PM me the details of the system. I'm willing to sell out because I want to make easy money. :rofl:

Rob, Interesting idea there mate. Will look with great interest and see how this all developes. Cheers lote

Gassah, Great work.. I just wanted your opinion on the S&P. I've attached a chart with what I'm looking at right now. Technically the 18D line has turned up and we have a +2 LCC. Now, if I get an LCC-O I'm tempted to short this whilst keeping in mind that this structure could turn into a 5D Repo before it hits my AD Target of 702. My concern is the fundamental news that's just come out with regards to the Fed's proposed treasury and toxic asset purchases. Whilst technicals are still pointing to the bear side the fundamentals are looking a bit better with bullish sentiment quite strong at the mo. These two divergent views may be enough for the market to follow the Repo script rather than a clean breakdown in price. I'm thinking, go short with 1/4 - 1/2 the normal position size and see what happens or stay on the sidlines for a 5D Repo if following the short script. How are you seeing the current play in the S&P? Cheers lote

Like I said it's the supply and demand dynamic within the underlying that affects the price of the futures market. As I stated in my earlier post, you can say that the volume in the Futures market is affected by the smart money's willingness to buy or sell futures contracts based on their activities in the underlying market. I'm saying that the the majority of the time it's the underlyingthat is indicative of the direction of the futures market. Trying to detect whether the Futures market is becoming a leading indicator of short term prices is futile in my opinion. It's much simpler to go with what happens the majority of the time. It's logical to assume that yes. Lastly, I sincerly hope you're not trading in futures yet because before you take that step you must have a thorough understanding of how these markets operate. You have no business being in the futures game if you're just beginning to increase your knowledge base. I would hope that you dive into stocks first for a couple of years before getting into futures. That's just some friendly advice mate

I see that you're confusing the futures and cash market here. Remember, the price changes in the S&P 500 futures market is 98% governed by changes in the S&P 500 Index price. Obviously the price changes in the S&P 500 Index is governed by the buying and selling of company shares listed on the Index. The buying and selling of Futures contracts in the Futures market has minimal bearing on the futures price. When referring to smart money or dumb money accumulating or distributing it's the action in the cash market where the big blocks of shares being swallowed up by the smart money that's important not so much the action in the futures market. However, the smart money will start buying futures contracts in anticipation of price rises once they have cleaned everyone out with most of the shares. That's where VSA and Wycoff can help with the Volume analysis part of the equation. So the dumb money can short sell as many S&P 500 futures contracts as they want during the smart money share accumaltion phase in the cash market. The price of the futures contract will only go down if the cash market will allow it. At the end of the day it will be the buyers on the otherside of the Futures trade that will be making the big bucks! It doesn't matter whether it's FX or anyother instrument. The basic principal remains the same. The movement of the GBP Futures, EUR Futures or JPY Futures price is goverened by the FX cash market.

Firstly, futures and options are derivative instruments that track an underlying asset. E.g. the S&P 500 Index. The E-mini S&P Futures market is really tracking the S&P 500 index. You might see minor divergences from time to time between the futures and cash market but 98% of the time they are running in sync. While theoretically there may not be a maximum supply in futures or options, fundamentally, all price movement is governed by two key ideas: 1. The resources available to buyers & sellers to trade at a certain price at a certain moment in time. 2. The willingness for buyers & sellers to trade at a certain price at a certain moment in time. Ok, so when talking about “exhaustion of supply” at a given price point, it’s really referring to a greater willingness of buyers to buy at that given price point. This could be called the accumulation phase when big institutions are buying up most of the limited amount of company stock. Once the accumulation phase is complete the path of least resistance for price is up. This sends the S&P 500 Index up because there are few sellers left in the market due to the limited amount of stock available to sell (“resources available”). So if you were fortunate enough to buy 1 E-mini S&P 500 futures contract while the accumulation phase was in full flow in the cash market, your futures contract should start to go up in price with the index.

This should do it: http://disktrading.is99.com/disktrading/

Have you exhausted every avenue to raise the capital yourself? I'm just going to take a stab in the dark but are you attending University? If you are then why don't you use your student loans or try to increase your overdraft limits. As a student they'll throw money at you if you have a good bank manager and a good excuse. If you're not attending University then what about family or friends? Why don't you get somebody to be your guarantor when applying from a lending institution? Use the money to trade and pay the loans back in no time. Remember, based on the numbers in my earlier post you won't need much to start off, even £5,000 would do it. Also, have you actually gone into a bank and explained your business plan, just to get some advice on what your options may be? They obviously won't touch you with a barge poll unless you have an extensive track record but you're there to pick their brains. Do you have a few bob to talk with a financial advisor in your area and explain your situation? If not, do you have family or friends who can access people like that? If you truly believe in your heart of hearts and can look back at this time in the future, without any regrets (if you get done over by these people) about exhausting every possible avenue available to you to raise the capital, then and only then can you reluctantly call into a prop shop.

There are obvious and glaring contradictions in your statement here, either that or naturally there has been a radical change from your earlier position on the matter. :missy: However, what's important is that IF you're exceptionally good at what you do then it sounds like very good advice to everyone

No, no, don't worry Tess, there's no place for ad hominems here I think Arty is better than that. You wanna join the love boat Tess? It's good to let go now and again :o

Come on baby, are you sure? Come to daddy If there was a point to miss then you could say it was missed but there isn't one, so your point is beside the point actually. Yes I can explain things away by saying whoosh as well. It's been a pleasure son just do some homework next time and make sure you come back with a point, may be some day you can reach the rank of private, just like me In the meantime I'll take your money in the markets while your having a cold beer and watching sports all week because I work hard lol. Sorry, I know, bad joke.

Of course it's got nothing to do with the definition of hardwork you espouse, I pointed that out before, I AGREE. You're getting your knickers in a twist over semantics matey. The HOW to work smart is where the difficulty lies. And unfortunately that does take hard work and attitude to develop for most of us. If it didn't then try telling two of your market wizard friends you know, that ANYONE can walk into a prop shop, start trading, become consistenly profitable for 5 years and retire rich beyond even Donald Trumps wildest dreams, see what reaction you get.

It all depends upon your attitude. If you think people on this site or any other site can't offer any ideas to help you in your trading then fine more power to you. But my personal belief is that everyone is a resource. It all depends upon how you evaluate the resources available to you. Some get seduced by the snake oil salesman with his super duper breakout extreme deluxe strategy, other’s look at a VSA thread and one sentence by some unknown member makes a light bulb go off in your head. If you’re attitude is to make huge amounts of money in double quick time without any effort then you're right, most people in this category will find door no 1, the super duper breakout extreme deluxe strategy.

Smart operators didn't get so smart just by waking up one day, deciding to become traders, walk into the NYMEX exchange and become very rich within a year or two. If there are any out there that have then they are very uncommon I think we can both agree on that. Essentially we are are actually saying the same thing. I liken it to a game of chess. You can put me and Gary Kasparov in a room together. It would probably take me 30 minutes to process a continuation pattern in a key area of the board, yet it would probably take Kasparov 3 minutes to process the exact same pattern. The point is I'm working a lot harder than Kasparov because I haven't put in the long hours of study like Kasparov has. By the same token I can spend the next decade studying chess 12 hours a day but only improve my efficiency from 30 minutes of processing time to 20 minutes. The question then becomes am I using those 12 hours everday, wisely? That's actually what I meant by working hard at being very smart.

Most of if not all of the Market wizards, specifically: Paul Tudor Jones, Marty Schwartz, Linda Raschke, Micheal Marcus, Bruce Kovner etc etc. They've been at the top of the trading game for a reason, they all work very hard and are also very smart. Remember why we are members of this site. Most of us want to improve our trading business and find smarter ways to produce more efficient results. Or if you're kinky, have an argument or two I've read through the whole of this thread to make sure I haven't missed anything and I can't see where anyone has refered to you as lazy. The fact that you have joined this site and managed to initiate a thread to a serious problem you're having is actually evidence to the contrary. Lastly, forget about approaching a prop firm, forget about telling any of your close friends, wife, girlfriend, cats or dogs and get £25,000 and put it in a trading account. Start trading and by the end of the year you will have 6 figures. In year 3 and 4 you will never need to work again. Then you can tell whoever you want about your trading system, including me I think that would be the smart thing to do matey.

P.S. I was referring to hardworking traders who work very hard at being very smart in the markets NOT the traders who work hard at being filthy rich in record time. .

The answer to your problem is in my previous post. If you're confident in your ability to provide that rate of return then i'm sure you can raise the capital yourself very fast. And like I said, you woun't need Gordon Gecko's 6 figure cheque to get you started. You can retire in 3 to 4 years a very rich man and keep the secret all to yourself.

Look mate I don't know whether you've actually done the maths here but if you can earn on average between 15% - 20% a month with minimal drawdown this is what would happen: If you invested pocket change of £2,000 at a minimum return of 15% a month compounded: Year 1 = £10,700.50 Year 2 = £57,250.35 Year 3 = £306,303.69 Year 4 = £1,638,801.35 Year 5 = £8,767,997.10 If you invested a bit more, say £10,000 at a minimum return of 15% a month compounded: Year 1 = £53,502.50 Year 2 = £286,251.76 Year 3 = £1,531,518.51 Year 4 = £8,194,007.07 Year 5 = £43,839,987.19 Or lets just say your family managed to cobble together a bit more and said, here you go son, here's £25,000, we believe in you (again at your minimum 15% a month return): Year 1 = £133,756.25 Year 2 = £715,629.39 Year 3 = £3,828,796.22 Year 4 = £20,485,017.38 Year 5 = £109,599,966.40 So if you managed to get hold of £25,000 from somewhere coupled together with the confidence you have in your system, you would never need to work again for the rest of your life in 3 or 4 years. Why are you so impatient mate? Can you now see why hardworking traders on this site have a very hard time believeing in your story? Some of them are too nice to say it but I will, stop blagging (british slang for being creative with the truth = politician). However you might retort by saying but it's been done before.. I would say yes, a guy by the name of Micheal Marcus managed to turn $30,000 into $80,000,000 in 10 years. But before those 10 years Marcus took a real beating in the markets. He had to learn the art of trading for many years. If you truly have a strategy like that just tell us your real name so we can read about you in a few years time when you're managing a $25 gazzillion hedge fund. Oh and can I have job when you get to that stage please? I'm an honest hardworking trader. :-)

I'm actually looking to do some data mining myself soon. I have JMP 7 by SAS. It's an extrodaniry piece of software to mine large amounts of data: http://www.jmp.com/software/jmp7/ I use Investor RT and the only problem I'm having at the moment is figuring out how to extract 5 years worth of Market Profile pivot data for the E-Mini S&P. If anyone can help do this I can hopefully post some results for people in the premium forum. Cheers.

I'm running IE 7 and keep getting a "this page cannot be found" error message. Any help? Cheers

Just getting an error message saying IE cannot display webpage. I'm running IE 7. I bet if I was running IE 6 i would be ok. IE 7 just does my head in sometimes :crap: Any solutions? Thanks