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Warren Forex

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Posts posted by Warren Forex

  1. Posted

    The average failure rate of a trader is 3 months. I'm just speculating here, but I would wager that for those who make it past the first 3 months, 50% fail in the next 3 months, 50% in the next 3, leaving 25% of the traders left (who made it past the first 3 months).

     

    As for the % of traders who make it past the 1 year mark, it's probably somewhere around 10%, the reason - trading is 90% psychological.

     

    I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month.

     

    Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological.

     

    Nice to see your post.

  2. Posted

    Like you, I have dedicated a substantial amount of time developing my skills. I am always looking to further improve as well. Right now, I predominantly work on Futures trading.

     

    However, pure technical trading is pretty much the same, across the board. For example, in the system I am reviewing now, the 2 main indicators generally always do the same things when the market starts to move into a new trend. Which market I am looking at seems to be irrelevant.

     

    We will see if this works in the long run applied to the Forex as well. So far it is though.

     

     

    You are right on the money about the psychology part. That is a much bigger aspect than is overtly visible. Trading is one of the few things that is totally counter intuitive. A healthy detachment, and almost *Not* caring seems to find the greatest success. Saying "F it" and blowing off the day to go sailing is often more productive than putting your nose to the grind stone.

     

     

    I sincerely wish you the best and I hope you have much fun and make much money. If you are interested I can post some links for you that will probably compliment your futures trading. What futures do you trade ? I consider myself highly knowledeable in Gold and Silver though it does make crazy moves because of interventions in the paper market.

     

    Try reading Jim Sinclair's Mineset daily for very good insight into the real news not the CNBC spin news.

     

    Snippet: From October 8

     

    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

     

    Globalism has its downside. This is quite true.

     

    Major U.S. Banks At Risk If European Debt Crisis Spreads

     

    If European politicians are unable to contain their sovereign debt problems, Wall Street could be on the brink of another financial crisis, according to economists.

     

    Although U.S. banks have limited their direct exposure to Greece, they have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to European banks and governments that may not be able to pay them back, according to the Bank for International Settlements. If some European governments and banks are forced to default on at least part of their debt, American banks could lose a significant amount of money on that account alone.

     

    The resulting panic from investors could compound the losses. Short-term borrowing costs would spike, bank stock prices would plummet and investors could demand their money from banks, several economists say. In a repeat of the liquidity crisis of 2008, some U.S. banks could run out of the money necessary to fund their day-to-day operations.

     

    "We’ve seen this already," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "Some sort of financial crisis in Europe would be enough to finally push the United States economy back into a recession."

     

    Some predict that a European financial crisis would spread quickly to U.S. shores. The pain would not come directly from government defaults; U.S. banks have loaned just $36.2 billion to the five European governments that are in danger of defaulting: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. But U.S. banks have also loaned $60.6 billion to banks in those five countries, and $275.8 billion to banks in Germany and France, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.

     

    A string of sovereign debt defaults would endanger the survival of major European banks, including those in France and Germany, which hold a large amount of troubled sovereign debt on their books, some economists note. According to Bryson, French banks’ exposure to the five European countries that are in danger of defaulting amounts to 25 percent of France’s gross domestic product, and the exposure of German banks to those countries is worth 15 percent of Germany’s total output.

     

    More…

    .

     

    Thanks for your reply.

  3. Posted

    I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if I am redundant.

     

    I feel the 95% number is probably accurate if you count everybody who ever enters the markets.

     

    However, if you limit your sample to just professional traders, who have made a career out of trading, my guess is that very few lose on a regular basis. It's thier JOB to win.

     

    We have a huge trading industry. It's so huge, that it is very difficult to comprehend. If the pros were not winning most of the time, the trading industry simply would not exist.

     

    You could look at it in the context of professional fighting (MMA/Boxing/Kick Boxing etc...)

     

    In the lower ranks, ALL lower level fighter lose on a regular basis. By the mid level ranks, they start wining much more often. The high level guys win more often, than not. The elite win most of the time.

     

    Trading is the same way. The goal is to always be working to advance to the next higher division.

     

    What league are you in?

     

    I had posted that almost three years ago. I would say that the number is pretty close to the truth.

     

    Most forex trader's including many of the professionals are technical traders. I would guess that of all forex trader's professional or retail that at least 75% of them trade using either technicals or price action.

     

    I have been trading real funds now since March 9, 2006 and I have come to the following conclusions.

     

    Whether you are a technical trader or a fundamental trader or a EA trader or a combination of them all unless you have the discipline and the pyshological makeup you will be a losing forex trader.

     

    A winning forex trader first and foremost needs discipline and contol of your greed, your fears and most important of all your EGO.

     

    The market is always right period until it is not. The PERCEPTION is always the REALITY until it is not.

     

    A fundamental trader with a risk management plan along with a trade plan understanding human nature and with an excellent grasp of the fundamentals has a good chance to win in forex.

     

    I have invested 5 years of my life to learn my trade which I love. I spend many hours doing research. I have set hours to trade in and I understand price action and know when each asset class such as gold, oil, currencies, US bonds change values how it will affect the other asset class that I mainly trade. EUR/USD is my key currency that I trade. I win over 80% of all my trades and my goal each month is to earn a minimum of 10% net a month. I am sure my trading style would not work for at least 75% of all traders who think that they can win in forex without investing time and energy and especially only trading by the technicals which change like night and day especially in these volatile times. Good Trading ALL !!!

  6. Posted

    2v8jrfb.gif

     

    Proper position sizing and proper risk/reward is what you need to focus on.

     

    The outcome of any particular trade is a random event... You win some, you lose some.

     

    If you have an edge, the only way to exploit the edge is to take every trade. You will come out ahead in the long run.

     

    My Edge today will be to see your Chart on EUR/USD !!!

     

    It now trades at 1.3639 Bid and if Dow goes down then EUR/USD should go down. Overnight it went up and as the day moves on it will move with the Dow !!!

     

    What does your Chart look like ?

     

    Price action but humans make price action and they like to go with the Momentum until all of a sudden that changes as information changes. The real EDGE is understanding the false PERCEPTION of the Masses who are always wrong longer term.

     

    Have a Great Trading Day !!!:)

  7. Posted

    Not interested in Forex

     

    Good For You ! Be Interested In Whatever Interests You. Be 100% right 100%of the time. Alice In Wonderland is alive and well now at least in the USA !!!

     

    The Dow is headed for 6000 as price movements will tell you BUT fundamentals could have told you that about one year ago.

     

    That is the beauty of life. Everyone can be an EXPERT in their own mind but in the end the only result that counts for a trader, investor, speculator or gambler is "HOW MUCH DID YOU WIN" ?

     

    Welcome to the real world folks.

     

    Fundamentals are KEY PERIOD !!!

     

    Everything else is NOISE !

     

    Does anyone here recall August 8, 2008 ?

     

    Look it up on a chart and you will see that ONE FUNDAMENTAL FACT and ONE MAN'S WORD created the situation where EUR/USD reversed trend from a High of 1.6000 and around August 8, 2008 it was around 1.5500 and then LOOK AT IT go down to 1.2500

     

    There was NO CHART in the world that showed that. Sure price movement showed it go from 1.5500 to 1.2500 SO WHAT ?

     

    The FUNDAMENTAL FACT of Trichet saying we will CUT and why changed it all and not only for EUR/USD

     

    Comments welcome but no comment can change that FUNDAMENTAL FACT !!!

     

     

    :cool:

  8. Posted

    Price action tells you all you need to know, eradicate everything else

     

    If you want to win consistently and be a winner in forex trading with all your tools is the only way to go. Without understanding fundamentals then the odds of anyone being a consistent winner are not good. If you can win without all the proper tools more power to you.

     

    All the thoughts and opinions are only valid if you have the results as well. Is there anyone posting an opinion who can honestly say that they average over 10% increase in NAV month after month after month and win at least 75% of all their FX trades ?

     

    Perhaps a few but I doubt more.

     

    I achieve the results mentionned and more so my post is not opinion it is FACT.

     

    :)

  11. Posted

    :cool:

    In fact, because your statements were:

     

    "Taking advantage of fundamentals is ALL that separates the pro trader from the wannabes."

    "You CANNOT become a successful Forex trader ..."

     

     

    Shouted. Whats more. Like the advert you were quoting (the one for a smelly little news trading "training" outfit).

     

     

    In this case you only need one trader who is happy to state that they have traded forex without fundamentals for each of the last 3 months to prove you wrong. I don't trade forex so I can't ... but I'm sure that someone can.

     

    For that purpose I nominate Wasp who posts here and who has been explicit about both is purely technical method of trading forex and his success this year. You will have to excuse him the last few weeks as he did so well that he stopped for the year and went on holiday (Well done old boy :))

     

     

    The best bit I like from that trash advert was: "Henry becomes a professional trader. You never see him frequenting Forex discussion forums, or online trade rooms, because he’s too busy making a fortune in his live account…"

     

    Clearly Henry hasn't discovered that you don't have to watch the market every single moment of the day to be able to trade profitably. Perhaps its that the scammer with the advert doesn't want Henry to go to a trading room and discover that he's just been taken. Like most who fall for the "make a fortune with forex" messages.

     

    LMAO. :spam:

     

    With respect for your view !

     

    I am a real forex trader. I am not selling anything here or anywhere else.

     

    Is the Stat misleading ? What if it is ! The only point I make is that based on 5 years of hands on experience and trading by using the fundamentals + the technicals + understanding when the perception is not the reality leads to winning results.

     

    Perhaps some technical FX traders win ? Great ! Whatever works for you. I can teach someone with the right pyschological profile to win at forex BUT not by using only technicals.

     

    By knowing that the FED would CUT 75 basis points I had an edge. Look at the movements after the CUT !

     

    The Charts did not show it !

     

    How did I know ? Well it was not a 100% certainty BUt it was about 75% so I knew that the cut would send the US Dollar Index down. When the ECB later on again went from Hawkish to Dovish as to more CUTS the EUR/USD reversed !

     

    Again NO CHARTS gave a hint to that change again in direction !

     

    MY EDGE ... Understanding the fundamentals using technicals for entry and exit along with being aware of ONE WORD that can change PERCEPTION which then changes Fundamentals.

     

    That is my point of view. You are welcome to yours.

     

    Good weekend Folks !!!

  12. Posted

    "Anyone who says "you need fundamentals to succeed" is wrong.

     

    Fx is actually easier for a technical trade than stocks/futures because trends persist so well.

     

    The advert quoted is just another way of getting suckers for yet another forex course. Classic sales technique, induce doubt, create a need, gets someone nodding, and provide the can't lose, give me dollars now solution."

     

     

    If every trader thought exactly in the same way, your words may have some value. I’m not an expert here, but my little experience shows this market is accessible to everyone with some money in the pocket, a pc and a network. People know about news and especially this crisis times. Surely, trends are lead by economical news. Jess ;)

     

     

    How about a little POLL on this ? It requires 100% honesty !

     

    How many here who trade without fundamentals have won in each of last three months ?

     

    How many that trades with both have done the same thing ?

  13. Posted

    Anyone who says "you need fundamentals to succeed" is wrong.

     

    Fx is actually easier for a technical trade than stocks/futures because trends persist so well.

     

    The advert quoted is just another way of getting suckers for yet another forex course. Classic sales technique, induce doubt, create a need, gets someone nodding, and provide the can't lose, give me dollars now solution.

     

    Bump: To be honest I am a little suspicious of WarrenForex's motivations.

     

    I just spent 10 minutes looking at his 25 posts and they make grand claims of performance, suggested a number of times that he will start a fundamentals thread here, etc etc. But look more like a subtle solicitation for business than the activities of a normal board member.

     

    Warren, why not put up and start that thread.

     

    Bump: To be honest I am a little suspicious of WarrenForex's motivations.

     

    I just spent 10 minutes looking at his 25 posts and they make grand claims of performance, suggested a number of times that he will start a fundamentals thread here, etc etc. But look more like a subtle solicitation for business than the activities of a normal board member.

     

    Warren, why not put up and start that thread.

     

    Dear Fellow Trader

     

    I have been around this business since 2003. I have been a member here since 2006. I have dealt with many posters like and unlike you.

     

    I have posted on other forums. Those that know know and the others well there is not much hope.

     

    I am not selling anything.

     

    Start a thread and I will post there if you like.

     

    Have a Good Day !

  14. Posted

    Anyone who says "you need fundamentals to succeed" is wrong.

     

    Fx is actually easier for a technical trade than stocks/futures because trends persist so well.

     

    The advert quoted is just another way of getting suckers for yet another forex course. Classic sales technique, induce doubt, create a need, gets someone nodding, and provide the can't lose, give me dollars now solution.

     

    All I have to say as my final word is I win 90% of all my trades. I earn over 10% a month. I trade using fundamentals, technicals and market perception.

     

    If you win consistently using just price action or any method ,Great !

     

     

    Use what works for you !

     

    Good Trading ! I am just stating my experiences of 5 years.

  15. Posted

    That was point made by another party. In theory I agree. I had few minutes to spare so while watching EUR/USD I posted this however 5 minutes of time is not hanging around

     

    Bump:

    Interesting comments Warren Forex. I would suggest that you open a new thread to discuss how you trade Forex with fundamentals. We should all try to keep this thread on topic. I have yet to find (in person or other form of solid verification) an individual that is consistently profitable trading spot currencies short term via mainly fundamentals. Of course I am not saying that they don't exist. Yes, technical traders (who like you said make up the majority of the boards) who fail miserably tend to lean more towards Forex. But my guess is that is highly affected by the ease of entry and minimal amount needed to take it serious. Again, I highly suggest that you start a thread. It would be quite interesting to see your thoughts.

     

    I have tried to start Threads to teach FX Traders how to win !

     

    I find that very few are ready to invest the time and energy to learn !

     

    I win usually 90% of the time but I invest the time needed.

     

    Trade USD/CAD and Correlate it to the Dow UP or Down !

  16. Posted

    AGREE or Disagree ?

     

    I found this ad of sorts and they refer to 95% !Currency Market Moves Because Of Fundamental News Releases!

     

    Taking advantage of fundamentals is ALL that separates the pro trader from the wannabes.

     

    And the best part is... You don't need to be an economists or have a degree in finance to make money with news.

     

    Take two traders, both just beginners, both took the same beginner's Forex course and learned the basics of trading. Both have similar education and background, and both love trading and their goals are to trade for living for the rest of their lives. Let's call them "John" and "Henry".

     

    John spends all his time studying the chart, he experiments with new indicators, new parameters, and constantly trying out new trade ideas. He gets his emotions in line. But he never realizes the fundamental factor to Forex trading... as a matter of fact, he purposely ignores news releases and he never makes the simple correction that will make his trades profitable.

     

    John, later in his life, is the guy you might find frequenting discussion forums, public online trade (chat) rooms, posting some amazing trades, but never ever show you his live account statement... that is, if he even have a live account at this point.

     

    Henry, on the other hand, early on senses that there must be more to Forex trading than just looking at the chart. He may not understand the fundamental news effect to the world economy, but he makes a simple adjustment in the way he looks at trading. Despite the warning from die-hard technical traders to ignore the news, he trusts his intuition and does what's right... not what people told him.

     

    Henry becomes a professional trader. You never see him frequenting Forex discussion forums, or online trade rooms, because he's too busy making a fortune in his live account...

     

    This is NOT a bogus comparison. You CANNOT become a successful Forex trader as long as you think and act like 95% of Forex traders, who end up losing.

  17. Posted

    Fact - A hiigh number of new traders loose money!

     

    Fact - Many of those traders are under capitalized and uneducated without ever putting in the time and work to become successful.

     

    Fact - Most new traders are not willing to apply the blood, sweat and tears required to become successful in this profession. They may start out strong for a few days, weeks, etc but when they dont see any immediate results they move on or wash out.

     

    If you go back to "Think & Grow Rich", most people stop 3' short of their dreams. For some the last 3' is too much to take.

     

    I had some free time this morning so I just finished reading this thread. I am qualified to comment in a different way than most since I am in the 5% category !

     

    My view is as follows;

     

    I choose this post to make my reply from since "Think And Grow Rich" is perhaps the most important part of being a winning FX trader.

     

    Whether the number is 95% or 75% Human Pyschology is the KEY !

     

    Control your FEAR ! Greed ! and Ego !

     

    Trade Plan ! Risk Management ! and watch this video please !

     

    To become a winning FX Trader you should understand this !

     

    http://broadcast.ino.com/education/traders_whiteboard_6/?blog

     

    COMMON SENSE and DESIRE to be the BEST !!!

  19. Posted

    A basic tenet of Technical Analisis is that it discounts Fundamental analisis... NOw If you have enogh level of preparation on fundamental analisis I believe you may have some edge on a only technical analist... the problem is learning fundamentals... there is no so much information on the non-formal study resources.... I would really apreciatte Warren if you start a thread on fundamentals, it would be very nce to know something about this, would really aprecciate... cheers Walter.

     

    Dear Walter W or anyone else reading my reply. If there is enough interest I will start and continue to post in such a FUNDAMENTAL THREAD.

     

    Please let me know.

     

    :cool:

  21. Posted

    Let us discuss Money Management !

     

    Save up $10,000 US Dollars after you have Demo traded for about one year with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo account.

     

    Now you are maybe ready to trade for real with real funds.

     

    With the $10,000 US Dollars on deposit do not trade more than 20% of the funds. Therefore you can buy 2 positions of USD/JPY using $2000 US Dollars of your capital. Say you sold USD/JPY at 1.1900 just after the NFP number of 92,000 New Jobs on Friday that was announced.

     

    You had put your Stop Loss at 1.1920...Your MAXIMUM loss would have been 20 PIPS times 2 Positions or $400 US Dollars as your loss. That adds up to 4%of your starting capital. You might have bought one Position at 1.1900 and a second one at 1.1880 to average in your costs.

     

    If you had lowered your stops during the day as the Dow continued to head lower after 2:00 PM EST than you would have a nice profit for little risk using this method that I use.

     

    I was out of ALL Positions except for 2 USD/JPY that I entered at 1.1922 prior to the 8:30 AM EST release of the NFP numbers. I was also waiting for the ISM number at 10:00 AM

     

    I would be glad to answer any questions that you may have.

     

    Regards

  22. Posted

    Here is a good example of why knowing what is happening fundamentally can make you profits. Within the last hour the USD/JPY took a quick run up 50 PIPS to 1.1900

     

    I shorted it up after 1.1880 in blocks. I read that it was Russian buying of EUR/JPY sending the USD/JPY up. When the buying stopped it came back about 20 PIPS and I closed ALL my positions for a nice quick profit.

     

    Being up for London trading ALSO HELPS.

     

     

    Have a great Trading day !

  23. Posted

    Personally I would not trade with less than $10,000 US Dollars. I always have traded standard lots.

     

    It always for me has been good trading at least $50,000 US Dollars in clients funds.

     

    If you trade with $10,000 US Dollars then NEVER trade more than 20% of the capital. That then is 2 positions of 100K for 200K in open Positions.

     

    Use a Stop Loss of 20 PIPS so your MAXIMUM loss would be $400 US Dollars or 4% of your capital.

     

    That is at 100-1 leverage.

     

    I trade at PFG now. If your winning percentage of trades is over 60% you can do good.

     

    My average is always over 80% because of my trading style.

     

    I hope this helps.

  24. Posted

    I just closed ALL Positions for nice profits on the quick move down to 1.1835

     

    I recently had a PFG Demo Account opened with 5,000,000 US Dollars on July 17, 2007. My balance as of now with ALL Positions closed is $8,402,478.68 US

     

    To bad it was not real funds. I am awaiting a deposit of One Million in real funds and that is why I had the Five Million Demo Account set up. I find it easier to trade Five Million than $50,000 US Dollars which I trade regularly for clients.

  25. Posted

    I rarely use trailing stops since I am very hands on. I was shorting in the last few minutes and based on News out that the fixing in Japan pushed the rate up for USD/JPY I shorted up to 1.1857 and I have already closed positions on the move below 1.1849

     

    I get many PIPS this way. Trailing Stops usually need about 15 or so.

     

    I am always open to ideas and or suggestions.

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