Warren Forex

I started trading via Demo accounts of $50,000 US during September 2003. During March 2006 I started trading real funds. 5 Years later I still trade and on a scale of 1 to 100 I would give myself a 60 starting in 2006. Today I would give myself a 90 with my average ROI about 10% a month. Trading is about 75% psychological and maybe more. However unless you have superior Risk Management skills in these markets you will lose. I guess that does tie into your 90% psychological. Nice to see your post.

I sincerely wish you the best and I hope you have much fun and make much money. If you are interested I can post some links for you that will probably compliment your futures trading. What futures do you trade ? I consider myself highly knowledeable in Gold and Silver though it does make crazy moves because of interventions in the paper market. Try reading Jim Sinclair's Mineset daily for very good insight into the real news not the CNBC spin news. Snippet: From October 8 Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Globalism has its downside. This is quite true. Major U.S. Banks At Risk If European Debt Crisis Spreads If European politicians are unable to contain their sovereign debt problems, Wall Street could be on the brink of another financial crisis, according to economists. Although U.S. banks have limited their direct exposure to Greece, they have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to European banks and governments that may not be able to pay them back, according to the Bank for International Settlements. If some European governments and banks are forced to default on at least part of their debt, American banks could lose a significant amount of money on that account alone. The resulting panic from investors could compound the losses. Short-term borrowing costs would spike, bank stock prices would plummet and investors could demand their money from banks, several economists say. In a repeat of the liquidity crisis of 2008, some U.S. banks could run out of the money necessary to fund their day-to-day operations. "We’ve seen this already," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "Some sort of financial crisis in Europe would be enough to finally push the United States economy back into a recession." Some predict that a European financial crisis would spread quickly to U.S. shores. The pain would not come directly from government defaults; U.S. banks have loaned just $36.2 billion to the five European governments that are in danger of defaulting: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. But U.S. banks have also loaned $60.6 billion to banks in those five countries, and $275.8 billion to banks in Germany and France, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. A string of sovereign debt defaults would endanger the survival of major European banks, including those in France and Germany, which hold a large amount of troubled sovereign debt on their books, some economists note. According to Bryson, French banks’ exposure to the five European countries that are in danger of defaulting amounts to 25 percent of France’s gross domestic product, and the exposure of German banks to those countries is worth 15 percent of Germany’s total output. More… . Thanks for your reply.

I had posted that almost three years ago. I would say that the number is pretty close to the truth. Most forex trader's including many of the professionals are technical traders. I would guess that of all forex trader's professional or retail that at least 75% of them trade using either technicals or price action. I have been trading real funds now since March 9, 2006 and I have come to the following conclusions. Whether you are a technical trader or a fundamental trader or a EA trader or a combination of them all unless you have the discipline and the pyshological makeup you will be a losing forex trader. A winning forex trader first and foremost needs discipline and contol of your greed, your fears and most important of all your EGO. The market is always right period until it is not. The PERCEPTION is always the REALITY until it is not. A fundamental trader with a risk management plan along with a trade plan understanding human nature and with an excellent grasp of the fundamentals has a good chance to win in forex. I have invested 5 years of my life to learn my trade which I love. I spend many hours doing research. I have set hours to trade in and I understand price action and know when each asset class such as gold, oil, currencies, US bonds change values how it will affect the other asset class that I mainly trade. EUR/USD is my key currency that I trade. I win over 80% of all my trades and my goal each month is to earn a minimum of 10% net a month. I am sure my trading style would not work for at least 75% of all traders who think that they can win in forex without investing time and energy and especially only trading by the technicals which change like night and day especially in these volatile times. Good Trading ALL !!!

Thanks I think I know that man. Avery is his name. He never loses and life goes on. Peace out Brother... Bruce

What Is This About ? Bruce

My Edge today will be to see your Chart on EUR/USD !!! It now trades at 1.3639 Bid and if Dow goes down then EUR/USD should go down. Overnight it went up and as the day moves on it will move with the Dow !!! What does your Chart look like ? Price action but humans make price action and they like to go with the Momentum until all of a sudden that changes as information changes. The real EDGE is understanding the false PERCEPTION of the Masses who are always wrong longer term. Have a Great Trading Day !!!

Good For You ! Be Interested In Whatever Interests You. Be 100% right 100%of the time. Alice In Wonderland is alive and well now at least in the USA !!! The Dow is headed for 6000 as price movements will tell you BUT fundamentals could have told you that about one year ago. That is the beauty of life. Everyone can be an EXPERT in their own mind but in the end the only result that counts for a trader, investor, speculator or gambler is "HOW MUCH DID YOU WIN" ? Welcome to the real world folks. Fundamentals are KEY PERIOD !!! Everything else is NOISE ! Does anyone here recall August 8, 2008 ? Look it up on a chart and you will see that ONE FUNDAMENTAL FACT and ONE MAN'S WORD created the situation where EUR/USD reversed trend from a High of 1.6000 and around August 8, 2008 it was around 1.5500 and then LOOK AT IT go down to 1.2500 There was NO CHART in the world that showed that. Sure price movement showed it go from 1.5500 to 1.2500 SO WHAT ? The FUNDAMENTAL FACT of Trichet saying we will CUT and why changed it all and not only for EUR/USD Comments welcome but no comment can change that FUNDAMENTAL FACT !!!

If you want to win consistently and be a winner in forex trading with all your tools is the only way to go. Without understanding fundamentals then the odds of anyone being a consistent winner are not good. If you can win without all the proper tools more power to you. All the thoughts and opinions are only valid if you have the results as well. Is there anyone posting an opinion who can honestly say that they average over 10% increase in NAV month after month after month and win at least 75% of all their FX trades ? Perhaps a few but I doubt more. I achieve the results mentionned and more so my post is not opinion it is FACT.

Message for gec1000 Your points make good sense. Watch this 7 minute video. http://broadcast.ino.com/education/traders_whiteboard_6/?blog

Does It Work ? Do You Make Money Using It ? Does It Cost You Money To Use It ? Do You Understand How It Works ? Are You Winning In Forex ? Questions and do you have any Answers ? Markets Open effectively at 6:00 PM EST Happy Trading !!!

With respect for your view ! I am a real forex trader. I am not selling anything here or anywhere else. Is the Stat misleading ? What if it is ! The only point I make is that based on 5 years of hands on experience and trading by using the fundamentals + the technicals + understanding when the perception is not the reality leads to winning results. Perhaps some technical FX traders win ? Great ! Whatever works for you. I can teach someone with the right pyschological profile to win at forex BUT not by using only technicals. By knowing that the FED would CUT 75 basis points I had an edge. Look at the movements after the CUT ! The Charts did not show it ! How did I know ? Well it was not a 100% certainty BUt it was about 75% so I knew that the cut would send the US Dollar Index down. When the ECB later on again went from Hawkish to Dovish as to more CUTS the EUR/USD reversed ! Again NO CHARTS gave a hint to that change again in direction ! MY EDGE ... Understanding the fundamentals using technicals for entry and exit along with being aware of ONE WORD that can change PERCEPTION which then changes Fundamentals. That is my point of view. You are welcome to yours. Good weekend Folks !!!

How about a little POLL on this ? It requires 100% honesty ! How many here who trade without fundamentals have won in each of last three months ? How many that trades with both have done the same thing ?

Dear Fellow Trader I have been around this business since 2003. I have been a member here since 2006. I have dealt with many posters like and unlike you. I have posted on other forums. Those that know know and the others well there is not much hope. I am not selling anything. Start a thread and I will post there if you like. Have a Good Day !

All I have to say as my final word is I win 90% of all my trades. I earn over 10% a month. I trade using fundamentals, technicals and market perception. If you win consistently using just price action or any method ,Great ! Use what works for you ! Good Trading ! I am just stating my experiences of 5 years.

That was point made by another party. In theory I agree. I had few minutes to spare so while watching EUR/USD I posted this however 5 minutes of time is not hanging around Bump: I have tried to start Threads to teach FX Traders how to win ! I find that very few are ready to invest the time and energy to learn ! I win usually 90% of the time but I invest the time needed. Trade USD/CAD and Correlate it to the Dow UP or Down !

AGREE or Disagree ? I found this ad of sorts and they refer to 95% !Currency Market Moves Because Of Fundamental News Releases! Taking advantage of fundamentals is ALL that separates the pro trader from the wannabes. And the best part is... You don't need to be an economists or have a degree in finance to make money with news. Take two traders, both just beginners, both took the same beginner's Forex course and learned the basics of trading. Both have similar education and background, and both love trading and their goals are to trade for living for the rest of their lives. Let's call them "John" and "Henry". John spends all his time studying the chart, he experiments with new indicators, new parameters, and constantly trying out new trade ideas. He gets his emotions in line. But he never realizes the fundamental factor to Forex trading... as a matter of fact, he purposely ignores news releases and he never makes the simple correction that will make his trades profitable. John, later in his life, is the guy you might find frequenting discussion forums, public online trade (chat) rooms, posting some amazing trades, but never ever show you his live account statement... that is, if he even have a live account at this point. Henry, on the other hand, early on senses that there must be more to Forex trading than just looking at the chart. He may not understand the fundamental news effect to the world economy, but he makes a simple adjustment in the way he looks at trading. Despite the warning from die-hard technical traders to ignore the news, he trusts his intuition and does what's right... not what people told him. Henry becomes a professional trader. You never see him frequenting Forex discussion forums, or online trade rooms, because he's too busy making a fortune in his live account... This is NOT a bogus comparison. You CANNOT become a successful Forex trader as long as you think and act like 95% of Forex traders, who end up losing.

I had some free time this morning so I just finished reading this thread. I am qualified to comment in a different way than most since I am in the 5% category ! My view is as follows; I choose this post to make my reply from since "Think And Grow Rich" is perhaps the most important part of being a winning FX trader. Whether the number is 95% or 75% Human Pyschology is the KEY ! Control your FEAR ! Greed ! and Ego ! Trade Plan ! Risk Management ! and watch this video please ! To become a winning FX Trader you should understand this ! http://broadcast.ino.com/education/traders_whiteboard_6/?blog COMMON SENSE and DESIRE to be the BEST !!!

It Would be on the Fundamental Knowledge of the FX markets needed to be a winning FX trader. Trading by TA alone just does not work.

Dear Walter W or anyone else reading my reply. If there is enough interest I will start and continue to post in such a FUNDAMENTAL THREAD. Please let me know.

Any serious FX traders try hard to read and understand the information in the link that I will post now... http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0803.html Even if you are a TA FX Trader you can only improve your FX trading understanding the subject matter. I try hard every day to learn and understand more about TA Good Trading All !

Let us discuss Money Management ! Save up $10,000 US Dollars after you have Demo traded for about one year with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo account. Now you are maybe ready to trade for real with real funds. With the $10,000 US Dollars on deposit do not trade more than 20% of the funds. Therefore you can buy 2 positions of USD/JPY using $2000 US Dollars of your capital. Say you sold USD/JPY at 1.1900 just after the NFP number of 92,000 New Jobs on Friday that was announced. You had put your Stop Loss at 1.1920...Your MAXIMUM loss would have been 20 PIPS times 2 Positions or $400 US Dollars as your loss. That adds up to 4%of your starting capital. You might have bought one Position at 1.1900 and a second one at 1.1880 to average in your costs. If you had lowered your stops during the day as the Dow continued to head lower after 2:00 PM EST than you would have a nice profit for little risk using this method that I use. I was out of ALL Positions except for 2 USD/JPY that I entered at 1.1922 prior to the 8:30 AM EST release of the NFP numbers. I was also waiting for the ISM number at 10:00 AM I would be glad to answer any questions that you may have. Regards

Here is a good example of why knowing what is happening fundamentally can make you profits. Within the last hour the USD/JPY took a quick run up 50 PIPS to 1.1900 I shorted it up after 1.1880 in blocks. I read that it was Russian buying of EUR/JPY sending the USD/JPY up. When the buying stopped it came back about 20 PIPS and I closed ALL my positions for a nice quick profit. Being up for London trading ALSO HELPS. Have a great Trading day !

Personally I would not trade with less than $10,000 US Dollars. I always have traded standard lots. It always for me has been good trading at least $50,000 US Dollars in clients funds. If you trade with $10,000 US Dollars then NEVER trade more than 20% of the capital. That then is 2 positions of 100K for 200K in open Positions. Use a Stop Loss of 20 PIPS so your MAXIMUM loss would be $400 US Dollars or 4% of your capital. That is at 100-1 leverage. I trade at PFG now. If your winning percentage of trades is over 60% you can do good. My average is always over 80% because of my trading style. I hope this helps.

I just closed ALL Positions for nice profits on the quick move down to 1.1835 I recently had a PFG Demo Account opened with 5,000,000 US Dollars on July 17, 2007. My balance as of now with ALL Positions closed is $8,402,478.68 US To bad it was not real funds. I am awaiting a deposit of One Million in real funds and that is why I had the Five Million Demo Account set up. I find it easier to trade Five Million than $50,000 US Dollars which I trade regularly for clients.

I rarely use trailing stops since I am very hands on. I was shorting in the last few minutes and based on News out that the fixing in Japan pushed the rate up for USD/JPY I shorted up to 1.1857 and I have already closed positions on the move below 1.1849 I get many PIPS this way. Trailing Stops usually need about 15 or so. I am always open to ideas and or suggestions.