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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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GJ- Actually my trigger is at 1.0166. Looking for a long term downside. 90+ pip drop in 1 minute- wish I was in on THAT!
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Its funny isn't it- that you DL an Mt4 platform or virtually any other platform and they have a list of 100+ indicators on them- you think "Sweet! the answers to my trading fortune are right here- they are actually giving me a cheat sheet- I'll be RICH" until you figure out that the vast majority of them are LAGGING indicators. They are more like "Hey this JUST happened" Wow- thanks for that. I'm not saying that indicators are worthless. If you are new to the game and you want to see if a market is overbought or oversold- you could use a Stoch or RSI to get a FEEL of where your instrument stands. It could warn you that you are getting into dangerous territiory to try and go Long on a GBP/USD when the Stoch is at 89 or RSI is at 77. But the bars (or candles) will tell you when the top is in place.
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Very well put. Welcome aboard bootstrap!
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Big Guns?! Hell that chart looks like 5 Bazooka blasts to the chest! :rofl: Actually the one pair that is frustrating me to no end is the damn USD/CAD= I wish they would stop holding it up and sucking in the herd- the slaughter of long holders is inevidable, wish they would just murder all the greedy oil hugging bastards and get it overwith! I have been primed to go short for almost a week now! Grrrr
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Actually I'm not trying to piss on the parade- but automation and the chase for the Holy Grail is a time consuming and fruitless adventure. Thousands of people have tried it, thousands have failed. If you can understand what the bars tell you- what do they say- what knowledge they speak to you- you are light years ahead of the average trader. If you can look at a chart and say "Ok, I see buying on this bar" or "I see extreme weakeness- time to cash out and bank $" instead of "one line crossing another" to make your trades- you will be highly successful. Trading simplified is this: Find the major trend and go with it Use smaller timeframes to pinpoint your entry. If long- look for weakeness appear and decide: Cash out or see if it is a reload If Short- do the same Buy Support and sell Resistance I know it sounds simple- but in reality- it is. Took me a long time of dicking around with every mix of indicator under the sun to finally learn this (with some help from a cool cat named Tom Williams) to realize- IF YOU CAN READ A CHART- LIKE A PIECE OF SHEET MUSIC, THE MONEY FLOWS, THE TRADES TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES.
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I'll get in that room with you I won't need to watch their clicks though!
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Eiger- I have been keeping my eye on the pair because of the extreme weakness in Yen and the strength of the AUD. This chart just scares me away from trading it- at this point in my trading career. Take a look at the GBP/JPY from today (Daily Bar) ready for these figures: LOW: 205.80 HIGH: 210.11 And nope those aren't a typo! The AUD/USD is ranging pretty hard right now- BUT their is a MAJOR top on the horizon. If timed when it breaks you could be in on a very nice short. Sledge
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Look at those absolutely SICK shakeouts- you gotta have BALLS to trade that pair if it acts like that on a regular basis!
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Toss the Indicator coding nightmare- this is said in all sincerity- take your thousands of hours to automate a system- and use that time to read the bars, learn to read a chart- the chart will tell you exactly what you need know in order to succeed. Trying to "beat the market" or "outsmart it" will lead to frustration and loss.
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OK VSA'ers I just wanted to post you a chart that will make you seriously Ill- it is an AUD/JPY from today 6/9/08. Sometimes you just see a chart and have to say DAMN! Can you say SHAKEOUT Central!
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Cowpip- Tell me about it, you have got to know that currency like the back of your had to have called that SOB. Well another volitle little bugger is that AUD/JPY, been keeping my eye on it just to see how it plays- look at this chart. Anything stick out to you? Anything at all?
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Wasp- Try to hear me through all the money surrounding you if you were set-up Long on the GBP/JPY today- 400 Pips! Damn!
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OAC- Actually I transitioned to a longer term trader BECAUSE I have a day job. I started small and would trade like mad scalping any pips I could get my hands on between 5 PM and 8:00 AM- sadly I did have to sleep so I couldn't grab most of the good moves. I was at work when a lot of the goodies came to pass and away from my platform. The longer term allows me to be able to assess the situation from a further out perspective. At noon I can get home, move my stops etc. At EOD, I can do the same. Now I'm not concerned with evry 3, or 5 or 20 pip "glitch" I know the long term trend is up, I find my entry and stick with it, if the market provides me 20 pips, I take it, if it provides me with 130 pips, I take it. I am still working on having the stones to find a bottom or top, get into my position and ride it for a week. I have yet to overcome that part of it. Very hard to do. But I do bank money on a daily basis. Looks like it is weakening- bank $ and look for a pullback for another entry etc. Sledge
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Just wanted to post this for anyone new to trading. You may read this today and think "yeah yeah.. blah blah blah" I think it will stick in your head and maybe someday you'll come back to it I found this while looking at information on Long Term, Medium Term and Short Term Trading camps, as I am making transitions from a once scalper to a longer term (now focused on Daily) so I can relate to this and speak from experience. I was a good scalper- but it was mentally exhausting. The following I cannot take a cent of credit (Credit to NewstraderFX on forexfactory) I tend to learn well with analogies, so this may spark something in someone elses head: Very few traders are long term and there are some very good reasons why. Longer term trading requires a very good knowledge of fundamentals and economics. It takes time to digest all this and most traders probably find it very boring and difficult to follow but, what really makes this type of trading so difficult is that in order to stay in these trades you'll need to be able to ride out the inevitable ups and downs that occur as a trend progresses. There's much less "action" here because longer term trends don't get set up every day (or even every week). These kinds of trades don't appeal to the gamblers. All this being said, I really believe the long term trader has a much better chance of being profitable. I'll explain this by setting up a few bets on the NY Yankees. Everyone knows the Yankees are a very good team. Does that mean they'll win the world series every year? No, but here's my long term bet: I'm gonna bet that the Yankees are gonna win more games then they'll lose this year. That's it. I only have one bet the whole season. Boring, really. What's worse is that they've lost 7 out of their last 8 and they're below .500 for the year so far. I'm losing pips and I gotta stay in and ride it out. Not easy. Here's the Yankee bet that's like trading those short term blips and bleeps: I'm gonna bet the Yankees score in this inning. Hey, they scored in the 2 previous innings. Alex Rodriguez is coming up, the short term MA of runs scored by the Yankees has crossed over the long term MA of runs given up by the opposing pitcher... There's a lot more fun in betting this way. You're gonna have 8-9 bets/day for 162 days. Plenty of action, as long as your money holds out.
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I'm looking to transition to an even longer term trader- trading off Daily charts. I trade Forex and would like any insight as to stop loss (in this case it would be profit protection) I'm aware that it depends on the currency. Anything with CAD or JPY you must allow larger spread, but I don't want to set it so tight, I cut my profits short- I want the winners to run. Anyone trade Daily Forex charts that may lend assistance? Trailing Stops may be for fools, I have been experimenting with them for years, on and off, and seem to be too tight (even 85 pips) at times. Sledge
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Seb- I know you use smaller timeframes at times. Do you generally look at the market from a Daily or 4 hr chart and apply VSA principles to them? Or do you trade smaller timeframes? Aaron
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VERY NICE example JJ! Thanks for posting this up for the rest of us to learn from! Aaron
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What a shame, the lure of the almighty dollar must have changed the heart!
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Alright all, after taking amy "beginners luck" strike on GBP/CHF and then having it ripped from me a few days later. I have been playing with test lots instead. It appears that this pair is nice and strong and didn't appear to have any indication of a monster drop back to the floor. Anyone want to assist me in gauging the pairs personality- feel like I'm trying to get a tiger shark in the boat with a dime store fishing pole!
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Walter- Quick question: If we don't have this "heat map" at our disposal, but are somehow able to manually source the information- say we use the following and this is a current example: Using FUTURES DATA: Right now the JPY is weak- Look to Sell Right now the AUD is a fairly strong "Buy" This was the most- mis-matched pair I could find currently. So a nice trade may be to go LONG AUD/JPY. BUT A quick look at the chart shows that pair appears to be peaking pretty hard- Any insight? Sledge
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There are days you'll want to throw your hands up and say "**** it" But you have to press on if this is the path you really want to take. I made a very bad call and took a SHORT on GBP/CHF. Less than a week after that little darlin netted me $800 bucks in less than two hours one night- she whipped out here silly stick and kicked my ass yesterday. I didn't even get a kiss for it! I won't let one trade that I didn't smarten up on sooner derail my overall desire to want to trade the pair- too much potential for money to be made in it. I just need to "feel her out" better next time! :o Aaron
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Andre- Thanks for the clarification! Actually I meant at the 95.15 neighborhood. In essence you are no where near the neighborhood- so it is safely away from treading there any time soon. Gotcha! Aaron
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Andre- Most appreciated- may I ask why you would not mark a Support line at the very bottom of these attached charts? Maybe waiting to see if it will touch again before making it a support line? Aaron
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Milliard- Thank you sir once again! And thanks for re-posting and refreshing my memory on the GBP/CHF! Aaron
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Quick question for the UK crew: What timeframe chart do you use to mark your major S&R levels? 240 minute or Daily? Aaron
