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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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I'll second that- hard to take a nice longer term long on a currency pair that is destined to do so- with all the pansy selling going on. But eh, looks like the pickings are ripe to get in nice and low on GBP/CHF :o
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Well as you know by the chart you posted, I'd be looking at a small portion of that entire picture. So blindly it would be a good call. Depending on how many times that support had been tested and how hard it was hit would show how strong it is. On your chart they gave it a pretty good beating and it held- so I would say that it is a good line of major support. The caviat with it is this, if it is a major support, the market makers will need to draw out the floating supply. the Volume on that beating was VERY high- Thus that nice little rise on the chart- may quickly return back to the previous tested area-- and soon-- if their is less volume when it re-tests you are looking at a confirmation that the supply is being sapped out of the market and have an even stronger sign that the market is bullish. My personal trade on this would be (without ever seeing this chart until now is) 1. I would have bought on that stopping volume bar 2. I would have been very careful to monitor the trade as it rises and lock in profits 3. If I see it starting to slide- I see that not as an "oh shit" but I expect it as a potential scenario because of the massive volume on the initial bar that tested the Support line. 4. If it DOES re-test supply line, I will wait for that test of supply to finish, if it breaks the supply line with conviction (i.e. it blows clean through the line and closes well below it with no tail when the bar closes)- I go short, if volume is less than the first test- I know it won't break that supply line and I go long. Sledge
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Ok if the area that the first bar dropped into and retreated at close was indeed on a support line- as long as the close was above the support line, I personally would probably taken the long at that point. You see I would have had to ride out the dead cat bounce but up in the long run. However if the support line was below or very close to the close of bar #1, I would have waited for confirmation. I trade a bit more aggressively than some. Very many folks would NOT take a long on bar #1 even after close as they want trend confirmation. To me if that bar closed far above Support but touched into that neighborhood on its tail- yes, that is a pretty strong indication that the market is bullish.
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Firewalker- Not only did the smart money BUY on the bad news, but notice how the herd was sucked in on that bar! You saw a SLEW of the herd get slaughtered by going SHORT on that bar and it was a bloodbath, that chart hardly hesitated on its way back up. Bears got murdered. You even saw a very rare opportunity that would have let the greedy and now stupid bears get out on the second bar inside the circle. After seeing the first bar close- anyone who was short and had a right mind would have said "oh crap, I was wrong" and reverse position to the long side.
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RSI(2)- WOW that has to be one mindblowing chart! Quick hits eh fs?
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Art: :o I'm not sure if I am more envious of them being able to take advantage of seeing such events, or feel bad that you are still at the helm back at base camp answering my silly inquiry. Cowpip: I have noticed that any time an FOMC decsion looms the markets go into slumber- then they act like a drunken monkey for a few days afterwards, trying to get their bearings again. Nice observation to point out!
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Obama Wants Energy Speculator Crackdown
Sledge replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
Without sounding like some minion- darn near every time I read one of your posts it makes me think- "damn this guy is one smart MoFo" All so very true, it is politics- every candidate is finding the "hot button" issues and playing to the voters. Today it is oil spiking and the candidates are all over it, when more and more of the housing bubble bursts, you'll see the candidates start talking about how we need gov't regulation of predatory lending- I hear the following "I will make these banks and lenders accountable, they will have to answer to why they took advantage of the american people (read: ignorance) to make a buck" Oh and watch for this: Couple weeks before the election Osama Bin Laden will be captured- thus ensuring a Republican victory for the White House. The American people will think that the war is now "Good Again" and throw their support behind a 71 year old putz who will keep us in Iraq fighting for THEIR freedom.. -
Cowpip: Very nice way you nutshelled a pretty complex subject on the eve of some news that assures us of some money being made for some and lost for others tomorrow!
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I think Art must have sent out an inter-office memo banning posting by employees on the company dime. Thread went from a #1 with a bullet to crickets chirping. :-(
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Rest in Peace Brother. A pioneer, a classic, a legend!
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Wow, I never expected so much hostility for saying I trade longer term that apparently most of you do. Must have stepped into a scalpers hornet nest. To address a few items, whatever your trading style is- long term, medium term, scalper- I'm glad it works for you, I've done it all myself and been successful at it-- Been a scalper, been a one hour trader, been a 4 hr chart follower. Needless to say getting pissy about it doesn't answer the question. The markets are not acting as normal- regardless of the line of B.S. about them being exactly the same for the last 30 50 or 90 years. If they were that predictable- we'd all be living on our own private islands someplace and not having a pissing contest here. So unless an actual explaination of why the markets in forex are up one day and plummeting the next- which is not the norm btw unless it is bottoming or topping- getting into a "This douche must not know how to trade" discussion lends itself to some pretty well wasted bandwidth don't you think? I expect to hear crickets from this point forward.....
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Anyone think this has a thing to do with the fact that most Future contracts for June are set to expire?
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True.. oh so very true!
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I told a fellow trader that my recent Daily perspective may be too far out for Forex in its present trading range. Seems as if the compass just got all wacked to shat!
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GJ- Hopefully I didn't come across as antagonistic, I fall into the "used to trade CAD and tried to scalp, got killed as a rookie trader, left alone for about 8 months, and am trying to trade it longer term now instead- camp" I respect anyones opinion on the topic who has greater knowledge than my own. To update you on my trade- I managed to take a measly 21 pips off that trade before it started acting like a silly bird again. The landslide of profit on a short is no where to be found at the moment. :o Sledge
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I'm not sure if anyone noticed as of late, but I'm wondering what the heck is going on with the Forex Markets?! If you look at the charts from a Daily perspective- they are all making you scratch your head. You look at most currencies- and they just can't seem to find their direction. GBP/USD- Long... No wait Short.. No wait Long, No wait.. HOLD. Same thing with AUD, CAD, NZD and even the crosses like GBP/CHF. So what is going on out there? Trading from a technical side, the CAD had a wild and wicked upthrust 2 days ago. The technical trader started to drool heavily and shorted the ever living tar out of it- this technical trader managed to salvage a whopping 21 pips off a DAILY bar that normally would produce a landslide of prices and by now we'd be 300 pips or better off that upthrust bar high as prices fell hard from lack of professional support.. but on that particular pair (USD/CAD) we are seeing support almost immediately... So what gives ladies and gentlemen? Anyone far more seasoned than myself have a hypothesis of why it is that we could get a 400+ pip rocket launch one day on a GBP/JPY and then a stall immediately? Sledge
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Bootstrap- Very nice post, most appreciative of you sharing. Your user id, is very fitting once the story is revealed! Aaron
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Outstanding post Eiger! Thank you for it, as well as having the stones to trade a market that gives you THAT many VSA signals all in one chart Sledge
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So then would you say that the Loonie is a better Technical Analysis Currency than a Fundamental Analysis Currency?
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Well, again, that depends on you. I want to post this for you not to be arrogant but to show you how I trade. On 6/4/08 I made 2 major trades and one minor. I waited for set-ups and these were the trades: Short GBP/CHF- +124 Pips Short GBP/JPY- +135 Pips Short GBP/CHF- +3 Pip scalp What I made on that one day- I will make in about 2.5 MONTHS at my day job. I DO monitor Every day, spend quite a bit of time on it, analyzing my trades, anticipating my next moves or spotting opportunities. I move stops up to protect my capital or I close out positions if I see weakness appear and I don't want to ride out the pullback. Basically, you'll need to find your trading style- the thing that works for you. A lot of people don't trade like I do- because it is too slow. They want $100 bucks coming in every day or $200 bucks. They want the security of being right and seeing the account grow daily. I do like to make quick money if I see opportunity to do so, but the longer term wealth building for me is to trade longer term. Plus with being away from my platform to work and sleep- longer term trading works better for me. I HAVE to be correct in my long term analysis- because I don't have the freedom to get in and out at a whim. Hope this assists you. Sledge
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Being able to take quick 20 or 30 pip scalps just for fun or quick cash is always a good time- I enjoy it myself. If you trade long term, you are sharp on fundimentals, this makes short timeframe trading easier IMO!
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Winnie- This depends on your trading style. Personally I use: Daily Chart for major Trend 4 Hr chart to look for exhaustion, Support and Resistance Get down to a 5 min to time entry BUT I anticipate which position I am looking for. Take the USD/CAD this week. I have been waiting for 5 trading days to get into a position. I have been looking to go short for 5 days. When the BoC made its rate decision, it was the catalyst for it to collapse. I'm now in Short at 1.0216 Patience is key. Look for the "Grade A" set-ups and sometimes you just have to wait for them
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GJ- Ok, here is what I see: If that daily bar doesn't scream "SHORT ME" I'm not sure what else would
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Winnie- Yes by VSA standards they are "No Demand bars" as they have volume less than the previous two bars prior to them. The second bar you have marked really appears to be not only a No Demand bar- but also an "indecision" bar- that is not a VSA term- just looking at the bar shows indecision or offloading by pro $
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Gj- I'd like to see your take on it. I'm looking at it from a daily perspective. You had a nice drop this AM, and it appears we are re-loading now for further decline. But I would like to see what your eyes see as well.