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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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Ed and Db- Ok, I would be interested in getting BOTH of your "take's" on the subject! Db, I posted my question to you in a post- just as Ed must have been replying. Ed- I'd like to know more about your strategy as well. Yes I do mean that you see that ranging hell! My thought is, sort of like a ping pong ball bouncing between two spaces as the downward trendline gets smaller- the bounce gets into an even smaller range because the ceiling is lower (hope this makes sense) My theory is that at the end of this range- it really has no where else to go but break the trendline- and head north. Any validity to this? Sledge
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Ok, now we're onto something. Ok so how do we finally tell when the distribution stage at a market top or an accumulation stage at a market bottom is exhausted? In your experience- what is it you see when you say "OK Db, you saw it get tired and now- it has had it and it is time to pull the trigger on this trade?" Sledge
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OK, I'm going to ask the $1,000,000 Question: At a Market top, we know we generally have bars of Ultra High Volume with wide spreads. Then we may see an "end of rising market" bar or we may not. Additionally, we may also see upthrusts and no demand as the top peters out. We may also be so lucky as to get a final upthrust into new high ground and know that the market is now ready to fall. Since the markets don't always give us this "perfect" set-up to follow each and every time but we get the following scenario: 1. Wide Spread Bar Up with Ultra High Volume 2. No Demand Bar 3. Upthrust 4. No Demand Bar 5. No Demand Bar Then the market starts to fall- and in a TIDAL wave of force, it comes crashing down. THE QUESTION IS THIS: When do the professional money decide when "its time?" Does one big player take the leap and start the freefall and the rest "jump in?" During my studies of VSA, I have never been able to call with extreme confidence- this particular move. You can see market tops flounder for days, while other times, you may get one or two no demand bars and boom- the bottom falls out. Anyone here with any insight on this? Sledge
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Ed- I know that Bearbull was quoting Seb, and asking if Seb himself would indeed be presenting? If Seb is to be presenting, maybe he could answer this question for him. I think it is fair to ask that question here in this forum for the following reason: People gravitate here to learn VSA, with that being said, with new and older traders alike with all levels of VSA grasp on the subject, some folks such as myself may say to myself- "hey if this webcast will discuss these subjects- I may be more inclined to make the investment so that I can learn these things" - without that possibility, I may just pass and save my time and possibly money. So I think it is a fair question he raised. Since Seb is a straight shooter- I don't anticipate him fibbing to Bearbull or anyone else about the answer to said question. Sledge
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I think Bearbull is REALLY onto something with this inquiry! I am hoping that it does get a very in-depth response that it deserves from the folks who can answer this question with first hand knowledge. I personally have read MTM and watched many webinars off the TG site (which are very useful- please don't get me wrong.) But his question #2- is not only profound, I think many out there may be in agreement, but have never articulated it publicly. Personally, I am thrilled to be learning VSA- I KNOW FOR FACT it has changed my trading edge, and changed how I will trade for the rest of my life. To listen to Tom Williams speak when he does a broadcast is, no doubt, one of the best people to listen too- after all these years- he STILL has his spark, he still gets excited to discuss what he brought to the masses. You don't hear a robot spewing the same old words with no feeling in his message. He cuts to the chase and doesn't have time to B.S. around. But some nitty-gritty- would indeed be welcomed and appreciated. What Tom has in his brain- ALL OF IT, will be lost if at some point he is not around anymore. From a historian perspective it would be a shame that all that knowledge that is in that brain were never put to paper and saved to be studied for the next 100 years! Sledge
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As always, leave it to Seb to step in and make a great point- so that we can get back on point of discussing VSA. Thanks! Sledge
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Db- I know you are being as candid as you can with all of the questions being tossed your direction. I appreciate your candor. After typing this message below, it is choppy and appears ungathered, but with a complex question, I apparently am not presenting my thoughts in a consolidated and succinct manner trying to ask what I would like to ask- but here goes: I wondered if you could just plainly state how you learned your "feel" for the market and apply it- how you feel out the trade- in a sense you are doing just that. I suppose this is a continuation of our conversation we started a week ago- I understand that you can sort of "sense" or "get a feeling" the particular rally or decline is wearing out. Since you don't use bars or volumes etc but S/R. I guess I'm asking- does the "feel" or the sensing come with practice, as every market is different and has its own personality? Meaning that since I focus on the GBP/USD day in and day out, I have more of a natural "feel" of how the market acts- if I tried to apply that "rhythm" to say the JPY- I'd get murdered. Guess I'm trying to pick your brain about how you get from Trade Enter to Trade Close- knowing when to pull the trigger on both. Your method seems un-congested and ro be applying the KISS theory, although from all of us looking in, at present, it is like heading to the Auto Show to see the newest model of XYZ.- We can look, but we want to drive it. Can you help some of us understand how your method can be achieved for other traders? Sledge
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Fair enough. Sledge
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Db- I think it is fair to say that I did exit the trade because the results were not on par with my goal. Unfortunately, I work a day job and am not able to trade full time (yet) so my wisest course of action is when I am available to trade and get screen time, I have to base decisions upon what I have in front of me. Since the drop did not have the strength I desired, I basically took the profit, instead of having a once winning trade, become a losing trade (which it would have, had I let it run all day long) I think it is more of a trading style. One thing I learned fairly quickly in this business is that you will see many a websites posting people who want to brag about "I scored 230 pips on this trade" To them it is more important to feel as they are some trading guru than it is to have consistancy- and if that works for them, that is spectacular. I have had my share of "Home Run" days- even working for 8 hours while the NY session is in full swing and I am stuck at a desk somewhere being away from my trading platform. But I tend to go for more "base hits" than "home runs." Long of the short is this on this trade: In 9 hours (all while I slept) I made $400 before going to work. In working 8 hours yesterday at my day job- I cleared a little over $100. To me it was a good day. My main question was- why did it not drop as expected? Why with such a strong reversal signal did it not drop as I had anticipated? Sledge
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dandxg- I'd say with 5 months under your belt- you are analyzing quite nicely. I thank you for this post. As I am not a TG customer and working to learn chart reading from scratch- this nugget of information is invaluable. A wonderful piece of information to place into my VSA arsenal. Luckily for me- this is a current chart, so I still have a nice shot to look for those "littered bars" on lower timeframes and plan a strategy to short. Kudos on your analysis! It is appreciated! Sledge
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Ed- Ok, here is the same day, on a 4 hr chart- I see coming into the upthrust: 1. A Wide Spread Bar up on extremely high volume 2. Some ok follow-through on the next bar but with significantly lower volume 3. A down bar with even less volume 4. An up bar still on very low volume 5. The upthrust Maybe this chart will shed some more light possibly? Sledge
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Db- Trade set-up was this: Went Short at 1.9837 Looking at Trend-lines I envisioned that after I hit the hay, that it would rise to approx 1.9889 and start its decent. I put no T/P target on the drop to "let the winner ride" and re-assess my position when I woke at 6:30 EST. As I did wake I see that it had gone down as far as 1.9761 and returned back towards the north. looking at the 1 hour bars, it appeared that 1.9761 was the bottom. I took my 20 pips and cut out- which was a blessing since it rose from that 1.9761 and never looked back. Sledge
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Ok VSA pro's I need some educating. I watched the GBP/USD daily bar all day yesterday and prepped for its close (See the bar marked with the arrow) In the chart below you see a very high volume day into "higher ground" closing, not only on the low, but BELOW the prior days close. This as I understand is TEXTBOOK reversal bar stuff! I waited for the market to drift a tad higher into 11:30 PM last night- I figure the higher the better right? Monster drop ahead! Now I was able to make pips and profit on the trade- but I'm scratching my head right now as this "monster drop" never came to fruition. At one time I was up 58 pips and when I woke up, found myself taking only a 20 pip profit. I would like the more seasoned VSA traders to fill me in. Forget the large green bar to the marked bars "right side". I didn't have the luxury of seeing that todays volume would be higher than yesterday when I made my trading decision. So what is this- temporary weakness that was overcome? Is the volume way to low to be a "reversal bar?" I'm dying to find out the answer to this riddle! Thanks in advance! Sledge
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Walter- That would be great if you did have the time. Thank You! Sledge
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db- Well, I'll take the advice instead of the book I was wondering if that may happen- and that is just as valuable as the information. I'll get cracking on finding the Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits book instead. Thanks for the info db! Sledge
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I did not see a section where it was possible to post items wanted. Figured since it is a Technical Analysis book, I would post here. Admins or Mods- please feel free to move if inappropriate: Looking for a used/cheap copy of the book: Analyzing Bar Charts for Profit: Technical Analysis As an Aid to Decision Making for the 1990s and Beyond by John Magee No luck on Ebay and with the rash of sellers through XYZ broker book houses-thought I'd try my luck here before heading that route! PM me if you have a copy to sell. Thanks, Sledge
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DB- Ok- see if I have this- If I watch a 1 min chart and try to ignore the Open and Close hash marks on a bar chart but try to be in tune with the "momentum" of the rally so to speak- is a better strategy?! Let me try to explain myself- Ok a rally starts and I see a quick and fast movement upwards, about half way up I see it start to sputter or pause for a minute, towards the top- do I see MORE action on that bar or less when the rally is coming to an end? (i.e. do I see more activity because the herd is snapping it up at the wrong time, or do I see less activity because it is stalling because it will go no further?) Sort of like a model rocket, it shoots off its launching pad with vigor, and once it reaches its apex, the fuel has run out, the nose-cone turns over and down it comes? Or is it dependant upon other market factors? I'm very intrigued by this concept and would like to hear some more! Sledge
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db- Thank you for your post, I recently signed up over at the T2W board and spent a good part of Friday reading your work on this topic. Very impressed and very appreciative of your posts there and here. Anyone who has not been over there- you want an answer on Price Action- LISTEN TO THIS MAN.. he knows his "schtuff" Sledge
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Cowpip- Thanks for that very in-depth post, I think I'm in the same camp. I have started to focus back on the basics- Chartreading. I think that one can get so overwhelmed when you start trading that everyone out there touts they have a "magic system" "holy grail" or blah blah blah. It is easy for folks to get sucked into using indicators that lag like hell as crutches to success. Long of the short I have learned in my trading time is this: If you can read a chart- and know what it says, all the other B.S. fades away. I read a great article at one time that stated "Your trading platform should have your chart of your intended trade and possibly a volume indicator- that's it" It was a stock article so the Volume comment would have been relevant. I remember when I started I had a chart, Alligator running over top, a Stoch indicator and others- anyone not in this game would have looked at my screen and run scared. It looked a mess! But you are indeed correct that screentime is the best teacher you can have-people have a tough time just watching though- they see this action going on and think "I'm missing out- I gotta get in there" Just as they hit that buy button- the market read your mind and knew you just couldn't stand it any longer and boom- they yank the rug out" Learning to go back to basics and just learning to read a chart- has done wonders. It is a hard road- but as they say- nothing worth having in life comes easy- or everyone would do it! Sledge
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Torero- Heh, Since I'm not Warren Buffett, I can't afford to hold positions for years to make Swap $ like he does. So to answer: I don't actually like to hold a position that long, but in the cases where it is necessary to hold the position as it did not hit my T/P in the timeframe I hoped, just thought I'd ask why or how they seem to calculate this weird way of giving/taking $ off traders. As with any trader, I don't make my money off the swap $, I make it off the trade- but I never like anyone taking $ from me that they don't deserve to have I recently closed 3 bank accounts at a bank I have been with for over 10 years - without hesitation - because they ended up shorting my accounts by $11 with no explination nor ability to justify it. Sledge
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Torero- Ahh of course support/resistance. Drew a blank for a second. So is it safe to say you use price action as sort of a way of determining momentum? You just exit trades at support and resistance levels from the left of the chart? Sledge
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Walter- Can you elaborate on other "simple timing methods" Very interested in learning more about that! Sledge
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Torero- What is S/R?
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Hmm, well I guess I never really thought of it that way cowpip. So if we are to use tick volume in Forex- are we all pretty much out of luck to find a REAL basis of volume as the market is not centralized? Anyone who trades forex and implements Volume into their strategy- what information (data source) is used? Sledge
