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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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Zeon- All I can hear over and over in my head is Todd K saying "Bank $" "You've got to Bank $" Their is NO SHAME in taking a quick hit and banking $. If it didn't go where you anticipated- bank your money and after you are counting your cash, you can analyze why it didn't, learn from it and look for your next set-up! Sledge
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Well, I'm not sure--if the market is as a whole (larger timeframe) is in a downward trend, and it is looking for lower prices, I'd say resistance is appropriate. My personal trading style may differ from yours, but I honestly would not think that taking your money off the table when you saw such a drastic retreat is greedy- it is smart. Sledge
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Zeon- Ok well with the initial chart you posted, you knew to look out for the Downward test (which came in around 12330) So you see the test, and enter your long at 12330. You ride that to the 12420. You hang on and let that bar form and when it forms into an upthrust, that would have been my signal to exit for now. At very worst, utilize what Tom Williams says, you see TWO DOWN BARS IN A ROW (in this case) you would have exited at 12370 and still made profit. One other point, look at the volume on the down move that headed towards the resistance- it was decreasing- yes, but look at it in perspective to the PREVIOUS down move that didn't break it- it is higher, it had a great chance to break that resisitance- and indeed it did! Hope you got in low and exited on that upthrust! Or shorted after it! Sledge
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Bf- It ALL helps. Luckily for me I started trading with candles and later switched to Bar Charts, so I feel lucky I can look at a Candle Bar and still see a Bar Chart form in my brain. As far as VSA- I see a WSB down, closing on the high with Ultra High Volume-looks like stopping volume to me and a "licking my chops" point of entry to go long! I'd ask you keep posting what you see, this is the second one of these you posted, in as many days, and it just keeps it "top of mind" in my brain (hopefully other posters as well?!) To be able to "See it, know what it means, react" Sledge
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Since I'm literally trading this blind, my assumption was that if it is waivering a bit up and down- don't panic. A. People who went short may be closing out of positions B. Trailing stops or Stop Losses are being triggered So this will pop a tad bit of supply into the market. It may range around down on that bottom for a while. How low was the volume on the shakeout? If it was HIGH, it may test again (They will be looking to see if the floating supply is gone!) I'd hang tight- without seeing the chart- I'd say you are sitting pretty on a long! Sledge
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Zeon- If you are wrong to go long, I'll grab the other oar in the boat and row with you. Just looking at the last six bars on the chart. Looks as if you have a Wide Spread Down bar (Hidden Potential Selling) You then have climactic action on the next couple bars (look at that volume) You now have (as the dust settles) higher lows (pro $ buying on the lows on decreasing volume) The only caveat is this, LOOK OUT FOR A SHAKEOUT at the end of these smaller bars. Very likely to see a thrust downward into the territory of the Climax Bar and then shoot upward! Sledge
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Eiger- I have heard the term "counter trend market" in the TG seminars- but I don't know what that means- can you explain for me and any others who may not know what that means? As far as having an exit at support or resistance- once again-- logical, SMART! Very wise idea to set your target to the S/R ballpark, take your money off the table and see where it goes from there, utilizing that "down time" to analyze your next move. Golden nuggets of information! Most appreciative! Sledge
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dandxg- No parade raining at all. I have dabbled with them and found the same thing you did- they can get smoked in a heartbeat, I'll have to go back to my trade journal and refresh myself as to why I gave them up. *Looking for notes* Ahh there it is, with SOME success but no real "comfort level" in making trades with them. Also just as I was getting into fully testing them, VSA broke into my world. Became all consumed with VSA and they went by the wayside. Trend channels appear to give a better gauge, I am in the early stages of learning them (i.e. how to draw, where to draw.) I had a mini-course lesson this morning on them as a matter of fact! Sledge
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JJ- Do you tend to use the US session because that is when you personally take your trades? Since I like to get at least part of the London session in my trades- would it be wise to calculate them as I posted? I dabbled with Pivot Points for a while and did have some success. Somewhere along the line they fell by the wayside with information gathering and trying of new ideas. Maybe it is time to re-implement them! Sledge
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Eiger- So you don't use "pivot points" you just look at the weekly high/low and previous day high/low to gauge trades? Ok, so if yesterday low was 1.999 and you see your trade right now heading towards 1.999 with increased volume you are anticipating a break through. If you see average volume, you are more on point to wait and see if this is your exit (a la bounce?) Hoping to clarify what you use, as it seems to be simple- yet effective. Thanks, Sledge
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I'd like to ask your opinion on Pivot Points if I may? Do you take the previous day bar and utilize its high/low/close to calculate pivots for the next day- IN ADDITION to having a weekly set of pivots? So to simplify. On Saturday night you sit down and look at the Weekly Chart-you take the high/low/close from this prior week (Ending Close Friday) for the upcoming weeks pivot points (these would be your "wider net" pivots) Then you sit down at EOD every day of your market and take High/low/close of DAILY chart and have those pivots set for next day? Also there are about 4 common pivot "sets" out there- you use "Floor Pivots" then? Thanks in advance! Sledge
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But remember this- if you are studying VSA, look at the Volume on those bars approaching the line! As Tom Williams Says, it took a running start and plowed through the resistance! Volume was increasing towards the line, if it were declining, you would have a valid point that the line would "hold" and bounce off it, then head north again. Sledge
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Man! After reading Eiger and JJ post back and forth- I realize just how much I'm still only in middle school in my trading education- listening to the College Professors teach the class! Keep it up guys. I'm picking things up in droves!! Sledge
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Update on this post I made talking about the slight pullback from Stage 1 and going into stage 2. This AM it appears that the Stage 2 may be gathering steam. The BOE didn't have good news for the cable and it lost about 200 pips. Look at the beautiful upthrust and downward movement on the 1 hr chart. Even with that drop an hour ago, you see a very poor ability to rise out of it. I'm Short 1.9952 Target TBD. We shall see.
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JJ- Thanks, I have been to his site and looked this book over. It appears very interesting. I like the spin on "Behavioral finance" I'll look into the book. Thanks! Sledge
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Eiger- Helpful? Oh yeah it is man. You see I'm still looking for my niche in finding the right "zoom" on the chart/timeframe mix. I'm going to print your info and do some digging. As I said right now I'm out of all trades. These congestion areas are a particularly difficult aspect of VSA to learn for me. Maybe that is their point from the pro $ side. With my analysis, I really saw nothing that indicated that the sideways action was anything more than a market pause. I envisioned sideways action for a few days- when it broke free last night- I obviously misjudged the move. Luckily for me I have learned now to sit tight- wait for the market to come to me, instead of chasing it or in a worse term- "beat it" But this is how we learn. I am most appreciative of both you and JJ's contributions on this. I need to take some time to just analyze the information you both posted and make it sink in! Sledge
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JJ and Eiger- Ok, I've been known to be wrong- dead wrong. So if two people are seeing bullishness and I am not, would you tell me what you see to indicate the bullishness? JJ- you marked a bar strength (that nasty ugly downbar closing down but on the high of the bar) Since then the market has rallied quite a bit (chopping all the way no less) With strength coming in, wouldn't we have seen maybe a temporary rise and then fall? As far as Shorting: Well shorting is fun, so is going long. I really don't care which direction the trend is, as long as I'm "in" on the correct direction! I most certainly will let you all in on any trades. As of this AM. I have no trades riding. I'm waiting for a set-up that I can get in where I want to be- some sign of directional "fluidity" right now the chop is not where I like to trade. Didn't I say that with my "system" it would test my patience- it is right now, patiently waiting for a sign to have a reason to trade. Sledge
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Eiger- Thanks for your analysis on the chart. Here is what I'm thinking, and I could be wrong (that's why were here right?) but I see this current slight upward move as a retrace and it building momentum to be able to gain enough "steam" to slam down and break that resistance line. Currently, my analysis is that this is a pullback and that we are finished with "stage one" of the drop, and when this "pullback" finishes we may proceed downward. Thoughts? Sledge
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Thanks JJ- My mind must be clouded by the flu. Yep I was lucky enough to see that beautiful top reversal last week and ride that baby down. Now the big ugly bar on the hourly chart you see the market drop but then closes in the middle, so their must have been buying on that bar, and as the afternoon pans out you see the market rise, although the volume has trailed off considerably even since I posted these charts. Looks as if overall we are at the end of "Stage 1" and all parties are jockying for their positions. Some are buying on the low hoping for a rally, some are gathering on the high for the downward drop. It may take a few more days for all of this to pan out with more sideways movement before we get to proceed with "Stage 2" Thank you for your insight! Sledge
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OK VSA'ers. I'm stumped in this one. It was a wacky and weird day for the GBP/USD with almost a zero sum game today. Ugly bars abound and no "fluid" movement. Any thoughts on these bars/charts? One is an hourly chart. The other is a daily so that you can get a "feel" for the current state of the market! Thanks! Sledge
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Naveen- One of the keys to trading is to "bank money" in which you surely did! Good for you. You didn't let a positive trade potentially turn into a losing trade! Once you get more comfortable with yourself and your ability, you'll be more confident in letting it ride longer. Remember- the broker and B.S. world has filled your mind with the idea that unless you hit homeruns everytime you trade- you are no good. Block that out now. Take the base hits like you did and as you learn, the home runs will come soon enough! Please continue posting your charts and your analysis, everyone can learn from them and the folks who reside here- will be more than happy to help you learn too! Sledge
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Michael- Check this link: http://www.babypips.com/school/market_hours.html Tells you not only what major markets are open at what times, but the average # of pips it moves on those timeframes broken down by currency (although I think the pip range is a bit "off" some low, some high) Sledge
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Blog? That is what this THREAD is for! Flame me to the friggin hills for all I care but if you have such a "lack of interest" in the topic of this thread- why not post on your blog and step out of the VSA II thread all together?
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Very true Eiger. After studying VSA and getting some excellent advice from a more veteran VSA trader (Thank you JJ.) I learned to "Zoom Out" from the market. For me I not only moved from being a short timeframe trader to a longer timeframe trader- but also learned to physically ZOOM out the chart. This allows me to see more bars and a bigger picture all the way around. Some folks like fast action, they like fast trades and scalps. New Traders in any market are geared to "hit homeruns" the first time they step to the plate. To them- looking at a 1 hour chart is like watching paint dry or "no fun- this sucks." My own experience- if you can read charts this from a "Zoomed out" perspective-- the greater your chances of getting more pips, or ticks or whatever. Sounds simplistic- but think about it- when was the last time you made 100 pips on a 1 minute chart? I never did- because I was too close to the market. On a 1 minute chart your human nature is that when you see that first down bar when you are long- you get out. If you are VSA trained you may follow Tom Williams advice and allow yourself 1 down bar and hold that trade with sweat on your brow, and then get out when the second consecutive down bar closes- you'll never snag a 100 pip trade on a 1 minute chart. I'm pretty strong willed and I'll admit to this when I was a pup trader: I'd be trading on a 1 minute chart. I'd read my chart correctly and get in very near the bottom of the decline and go Long. I am able to snag 15 pips on a 1.00 lot contract. I now have $150 in my account sitting there looking at me as the trade is still open. I see one down bar. I grab my balls and hold on, it loses 2 pips so I'm now looking at $130 in my account. The second down bar now closes and I'm only up 10 pips ($100) and we know the drop is coming. Out of the fear of having a once profitable trade become a break even or a NEGATIVE trade- I'd close out. Why? Because people don't like to lose. So I'd take my $100 bucks and try again later. All the while- this is LONG TERM raging bull trend. If that trade was executed and held- 5 hours later- I would have taken 95 pips on it. So I "settled" for $100 when I eventually could have had $950. This is what the pro's know- it is why they are so very good at what they do-they know the fear is there, they know the mentality of the herd. TG folks will tell you if you are trading on a 1 minute chart "you're crazy" (too much noise) Sometimes it is fun to grab 10 or 20 pips just for the hell of it, but the long-term winners, the real meat of your income will come from longer timeframe trading. Sometimes you just have to keep banging your head against the 1 Minute wall to have it sink it. Eventually, if people stay in this long enough (or last) they will be longer timeframe traders. Sledge
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How do you know that it is fake? Sledge
