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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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I wasn't asking for personal advice. I saw a nice real live situation present itself while I was flicking through my timeframes and said- Hey this would be a good lesson for others to try and figure out as well. Since it was a real-time, live edge chart(s)- my basic question was if you were sitting there, you saw what I posted, what would you have done? I may have gotten a range of answers such as: A. I'd wait for a higher volume downward move through the 1.97 area and confirm to go short B. I am a scalper and I would have used the 1 hr chart to go long, watch the bars form and manually exit. C. I would have done nothing since their was low volume and it was the Asian Market. It was more of a curiosity as to what others see when looking at the very same information. I made my trade, banked $ and was happy. Guess I thought others may have seen it totally different and taken their own path. Sledge
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Bf- Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be? JJ stated he would take no trade. I happened to go long but CAREFULLY long I wouldn't say that because it failed to spark the conversation I hoped for, that VSA should be written off as a form of technical analysis. Sledge
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JJ- Fair enough. I know some folks have asked to have "live edge" trading examples if at all possible. I figure if it was "I'd take no position" accompanied by reasoning for such- would be a benefit to anyone trying to navigate through this muddy time on the GBP. You are correct that the Asian session is always the slow time in the Cable market, but if Tom Williams states that "The professionals never sleep" I can only assume that we must give some weight to the movement- no matter how little the volume is. Sledge
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Still no takers on this? Wow, I'm stunned really. Thought it would be a great discussion at a live edge of a market. I decided to use the 1 hour timeframe and take a quick long at 1.9717 Closed out after the test followed by upthrust formation at 1.9745. Quick and dirty for a 28 pip grab. Sledge
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You do the same! Good luck with that strong woman!
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Dan- Excellent- great to know, well I have been in discussions for a broker move soon to an ECN anyways. This would require me to get my own charting and datafeed- and Esignal is on the list to consider. Thanks. Sledge
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Milliard- Well the story goes something like this. 1. Newbie trader gets the bug from a relative that trades currency. 2. Newbie begins to demo trade and open about 8 different windows of every currency flavor. 3. Newbie trader doesn't realize that each currency has its own "personality" and attempts to trade them all the same. (Ouch!) 4. Newbie is drawn to USD/JPY and as soon as nice win comes in- Yen Spanks new trader down to the floor and takes all winnings away. 5. Over time and steep learning curve, I get to the point of analysis of my own trades. I create a spreadsheet of what currencies I excel at, and which ones are "not going so well." 6. I narrow down the list to the EUR, GBP and CHF 7. I then realize that the GBP hours fit the best for my schedule. Since the London market is the Major market for currency and a ton of volume is traded in GBP during the London session it made logical sense. Additionally, I have access to most major "news time" events- I don't trade the news but as an example, yesterday with the rate decision coming out- I was still at home able to make any adjustments necessary before heading off to the day Job. I am also able to get a nice feel from my JOB-EOD (4:30 EST to about 11:00 PM EST) to see how the market played out in NY and what the "lull time" drift is telling me (NY Close until say bedtime.- have to sleep sometime I guess) 8. If the lull time is to my liking, I place a trade and let it be ready for the London open. 9. To me, the GBP doesn't whip and dip like a CAD or JPY, it is not the flavor of the day currency like the EUR. The AUD and NZD are just not very interesting to me for some reason so I stay away from them. I have never gotten into crosses, but as I am much more seasoned now than before- I may dabble into them. I have not ever traded a cross in all the time I have been trading- maybe time to get familiar with a few. 10. Best answer. I can get in with a nice rythem with the GBP, I have a good feel for it and it GENERALLY behaves itself. I agree with you, this month thus far has been a nasty little ride, I have been taking "base hits" much more than making nice "home runs" But it is OK, base hits still put $ in the account and make the trader happy. I told a fellow pound trader that if I only trade GBP for the rest of my life- as long as I'm consistantly making money with it, I'm fine to trade one Currency. More than you wanted to know I'm sure, but there you be. Sledge
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Well it is traded volume- volume = activity High Volume means pro $ is in on the bar (and the herd will be there as well) So say you are at a market top- you see a high volume bar- with a narrow spread. It is an indication that there are herd demanding higher prices and professional money offloading all the longs to them as fast as they can. But the pro $ is bearish. So on that bar that looks "little" the volume is very high, because their was a transferring of ownership going on. That bit of information will tell you quite a bit about what is coming next in the trend. Sledge
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Art- Well I have learned over my trading "career" to look outward from the market (Zooming out to higher timeframe) as you and Anna and Milliard collectively do. For me everything starts with a Daily chart, then a 4 hr. Only drilling down for oil I do is to pinpoint entry or stops. I stopped smacking my head on the 1 minute wall a while back- and boy does it make trades much more rewarding and less stressful! And yes, banking dollars is key that some seem to forget to do. I take what the market gives me. I set a reasonable target-- say that is 100 pips, if it gets to 98 and stalls hard. I bank $ and wait for the next set-up. Some newer traders won't deviate from that 100 pip target and end up with less than my 98- or are really stubborn and let it fall into negative territory because they "KNOW ;-)" it will eventually get to their target. All the while I'm sitting there counting my 98 and planning my next move- while they sweat the trade from hell they have placed themselves in. As you informed Andre, the Bull Armor will have to come out soon, I don't foresee the ability for this to get down to the 1.94 level right now, just doesn't have enough steam behind the down move to get there. Although every retail bucketshop is herding their followers that this badboy is on its way to 1.93 or even 1.85- yikes! As you said next quarter- yes it is a definate possibility, but it will have to rise up to build momentum to plow through that wall of 1.97XX but hey, there are plenty of purchasers for shorts out there for you to folks to sell too. Sledge
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I have had this discussion before and it is basically, up to the trader to determine whether he/she feels it is valid or not. The principle is as follows: 1. Since Spot FX is NOT centrally Located, tick data will come from your broker and will be based on the contracts THEY carry. 2. My usage of the Tick Volume as per each platform- Each broker is carrying a small percentage of the TOTAL overall contracts being traded at any given time in the market. 3. It is my firm belief after looking at various brokers and platforms tick based volume that the actual # on the volume bar is less significant as the OVERALL relativity of the said bars SIZE in relationship to the preceeding bars on the "left of the chart" 4. So in a sense on a 1 hr bar my broker may have 3,879 as Volume- Your broker may have 4,856. If we compare the relative volume with the background- we are still able to make trading decisions via VSA. 5. I do believe that tick volume of any nature in Forex (because it is the best we are able to attain) is useful as long as we are looking at it in relative terms based on where you trade. Sledge
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Art, Milliard, and Anna-Marie- Thank you for the commentary, since I tend to trade the GBP/USD these posts confirm my own analysis- thank goodness to be correct along with much more "seasoned" (but not too seasoned) folks! :o Sledge
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Honestly, I guess this is a debatable term. To me the market is working downward, so for it to go further, I call it resistance, whether correct or not as the term I'm not sure. Basically, it is a congestion area that it needs to be cracked, so I personally call that resistance if it is to penetrate it. Sledge
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Each platform from your broker should have a volume indicator attached. The MT4 has a pathetic "on-chart" volume (If you go to right click on chart, properties and radio button "volume,) and it also has the nice "tick" volume you see on my charts under the "indicators" tab. But I have used plenty of platforms and all give you access to volume- be sure you are getting TICK volume though- that is the key to success in Forex!
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Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you. Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr. On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming. On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline. So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short? Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!
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Looks like a Euro Chart. Regarding the 8th bar in from right- Wouldn't this be the Gapping up Tom Williams talks about- rapid markup to discourage any longs to sell since they are now making $- he also refers to this as a path of least resistance to "bypass the tolls normally having to be paid to get to higher prices"
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Wow! What a post! A beautiful statement for beginners to print, read and re-read, and for any "seasoned" trader to do the same. Very well put, very well articulated! Sledge
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Nic- You seem to have a very keen insight, I hope you may come to this thread and possibly give more analysis on either posts of your own or other traders posts. It appears you have a nice grasp on the thread subject matter that I know I would like to hear more of! Sledge
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Zeon- Although it may have come across harsh to you, I really was trying to help you. You stated that you thought that taking your profits and banking them was "greedy." Taking the win when you see that turn of events is smart- but that is how I trade. I personally, take what the market gives me. I don't set targets without flexibility. Say I would like 100 pips on a particular trade. That is a target. If it gets to 98 pips and stalls or starts to reverse- you bet your ass I take my 98 pips-bank that money and am happy. Do I feel like some failure that I couldn't get the 100 pips I wanted? Hell no, I'll console myself with the 98 pips of cash I DID make! No one here or any other message board can tell you how to trade for yourself. No one can mimic anyone elses style or comfort level. I have had some very nice conversations with JJTrader and Eiger. All 3 of us are successful traders in our own right, we all follow parts of VSA, some of us are weighed more heavily in VSA than the others. AND THAT IS OK. No one says you have to take Master the Markets as a Bible, no one says- if you deviate from one word from it- you can't call yourself a VSA purist. No one says you can't question something in VSA- but question it, test it and prove it. The 7 steps I posted on the board I have seen take shape hundreds of times- HUNDREDS. After that happens over and over- it validates what Tom says- I didn't take his word as bond when I started- I took his concept- watched it in a live environment and said- WOW this guy is for real. Sledge
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You know, I don't have an answer for you. Maybe you can call Tom Williams personally and ask him what the answer is. Talk to Seb, maybe for a consulting fee- Tom can give you the enlightenment you seek.
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All I can say is this: 1. I study the book. 2. I consume any information on VSA I can. 3. I have yet to find anything I have been told in 1 or 2 above to be false. 4. My results speak for themselves because I follow what I have learned. 5. I am happy at the results I have gained from being a student of VSA I'm not here to be some champion of VSA- I agree with it and adhere to it. It has served me well. Other than that, I don't feel I have to justify anything else. Sledge
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Tom Classifies Fund Managers as part of the herd. Banks are part of the herd. Joe Average is part of the herd. In Master the Markets, he states that in a recent study- most fund managers have difficulty outperforming the market unless it is a raging bull market. You have to read the book to understand- without it, I'm trying to repeat hundreds of pages for you instead of just picking the book up and studying it yourself. Sledge
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I did miss your question. Not sure what you mean about where the trendline came from. I drew it from point A to point B- not really that hard. And no I'm not (Nor is Tom) saying EVERY move is manipulated, but I am saying that if their is an opportunity for a Market Maker to fool unsuspecting traders into a bad position- they'll do it. Not trying to be an arse- but it is quite apparent that neither you nor Zeon have read Master the Markets, listened to Tom Williams speak, or watched a TG webinar. He is pretty clear about it. Being a former syndicate trader- and having the inside insight he has, and has KINDLY shared it with the world- I have great respect for him. There are THOUSANDS of books out there written by Pit Traders, Market Makers blah blah blah- not one I have found actually has the balls to tell you what Tom Williams does- they just want to sell books, they never tell you that a Market Maker will mark a market up, they never tell you the truth- they dangle the carrot over your face and after reading 400 pages, they never get to the "good stuff." It is not strictly a chart reading book only, it doesn't rely on Flags, Engulfing Candles, Triangles, Dots, Waves, or any other hocus pocus. Before I started trading VSA, I experimented with every "lagging indicator" out there, I tried Pivot Points, I tried all sorts of crap. Until I stumbled upon VSA. I literally wrote in my trade journal "The Day it all Changed" Now- My platform consists of a Bar Chart and Volume- with appropriate trend lines drawn- That's It. If either of you want to challenge what Tom says- read the book and then decide for yourself so that you can come here and discuss it with the same understanding. If you decide it isn't for you- then fine. Once again, if VSA isn't your thing- I could give a crap, but we ARE in a VSA thread, Once again instead of trying to really understand what VSA is about- you want to come here and pick apart what many people have had success learning and it has changed a lot of traders lives. We don't need a devil's advocate here. This is how we trade, this is what we are trying to learn. I actually feel sorry for you that you think spreading doubt about anyone elses idea of how to trade, other than your own, is what you spend your life doing. Arrogance invites ruin; humility receives benefits. --Chinese proverb
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Zeon- As Tom Williams is the originator of VSA, and this is a VSA thread, it is perfectly logical to discuss this here! It is part of what he teaches. He didn't title his book "The Master Bar Chart Guru" The thread doesn't have to be "charts only" The information I told you is also relevant to show the "Tricks" of the Market Makers- and will tell you HOW THE BARS FORM. I think you are a little off base to be so focused on just the bars- don't you want to know HOW or WHY those bars form so that you can UNDERSTAND why the market moves the way it does? Otherwise, you are blindly looking at a bar without logic or following patterns. You have got to see the whole picture- not just a bar! If you think all of what he said on the video, and the common theme running through is book is bull***t, that is fine. If you choose to ignore it, there is nothing I can say to sway you. Sledge
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Eiger- Thank you for the in-depth description. I'll visit Joes message board from time to time, just to get a no nonsense explination of a topic (darn near everything you can imagine has been covered on his board at one point)- talk about a straight-shooter. That guy will tell you flat out, no punches pulled whatever you want to know. Sledge
