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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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Torero- Excellent, so do you personally prefer to see a ranging market then as opposed to a potential top or bottom? I think with even more screen time- now that I have been made quite aware of these "vibration areas" "Hot Spots" or "S&R zones" (Not sure we have reached a universal term) that judging a cluster of bars to look to see if it is accumulation or distribution, will lend itself to determining if the market will continue its present direction or fail and move away from the present trend. Sledge
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Milliard and Cowpip: I thank you both for the clarification. Most appreciated. Sledge
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Anna-Maria- Would you tell me how you determine the top and bottom of your "Hot Zones?" Does this come from: Watching the bars form in real-time? Or is it a range of a bar or bars? Or maybe possibly opens vs. close vs ??? :confused: Thank you. Sledge
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My thought exactly. Thank you again for another stellar post! Sledge
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Anna- I had another thought after I re-read your post. Andre had stated that he and company don't use volume to spot exhaustion (or anythng else for that matter.) Do you then focus soley on the formation of the bar or bars in the, for lack of a better term- S&R neighborhood? The most common that come to mind would be: 1. Bars with long top "wicks" and close in the middle or low 2. Narrow spread bars either at top of a trend or bottom (maybe you call this at your S&R neighborhood) 3. Bars with long "tails" that close in the middle or high of the bar Any others I may have forgotten? I'm working to look at the "horizon" as Andre pointed out and not focus on say one particular bar- but as you know you tend to see a cluster of bars in a sideways pattern in these S&R zones. So I am working on clarifying in say a 5 bar cluster what that cluster tells me. I think the answer is that you just have to know how to read bars and what they are specifically telling you, as well as when you get 5 bars together- what do they COLLECTIVELY tell you. Correct? Much Thanks- can I take your "non-30 minute seminar" sometime ;-) Sledge
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Anna- Oh you have no idea the education you folks are providing. To you and the crew, this is probably pretty "common sense stuff" because by now it is all second nature with your background. Just as it is second nature to me to build you a stunning trade show display and pull off a profitable show (my background and consulting business) For me that is easy- but for my clients- it isn't (that is why I get to be paid to teach them) For your enlightemnent of us, I am truly grateful! Sledge
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Art- I'm friggin speachless- and I talk A LOT! :o The only thing I can comment after offering you extreme thanks is one line in your post: "Why would we be any different to anyone else?" The funny thing is- there are a lot of folks who don't get it and don't try to (i.e. the gamblers you spoke of) Some of the folks who DO attempt to understand how the markets work- up until some of these posts always thought this may be true- but never had someone who captain's an Oil Tanker on a daily basis- confirm it. You just took this from an educated guess or a theory to "Yup, there it is, it was said by someone who really knows what the heck goes on- from someone who sits the trenches daily!" Who knew this thread would lead to such wonderful and open discussions that would sharpen my trading skills like a Ginsu! I want to publicly Thank Torero for making one simple observation that has lead us to where we are 7 pages later: "Busy Day Tomorrow" Busy Indeed! Thank you Art, I know I'm open to more education and am MOST appreciative! Sledge
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Art- WOW, what a post! THANK YOU! That is an unbelievably in-depth answer to my question! So in essence, folks in your boat really are watching Price Action at certain predetermined S&R levels and the reaction to said price action in say a 25-30 pip range (give or take dependant upon the circumstances) Yes? Thank you sir! Sledge
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Art- I know this is far back in the thread, but it has stuck with me when I looked at these charts. Am I correct in stating that at your major levels you are drawing the S&R lines right through where the close of one bar and the next open bar forms- regardless of say a down bars "tail" or top reversal bar's "wick" is? If so this is a huge lesson for me. It is logical, to say the least. I think darn near everyone I have ever seen or tried to learn from would put that horizontal line at the bottom of that "tail" or the top of that "wick" Most appreciated if you could let me know if I interpreted your S&R lines correctly. Sledge
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I considered that as well, but the volume made me scratch my head, they were fairly good volume bars, but I wasn't sure if they would hold. Basically, it could have poked through the top of the range and plunked back down- Overall, it may have been a very dangerous trade to take in either direction the more I discuss it!
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You are indeed correct. I missed that completely! Thank you for yet another lesson oh wise one! I even called it a Test in my post- Duh! Sledge
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Habi- Don't give up man. This thread is designed for discussion on this topic. You disagree with me- and that is perfectly ok (I'm not offended ) As it has been stated many times in numerous places- we all have our style, we all have our "way" and at the end of the day- the only thing that matters is that you "Bank $" I don't see it as my place to discuss anything about Milliard and his knowledge base. I will allow him to do so if he is so inclined. But I personally take what he says and digest it. VSA has been great to me, but if their are holes in ANY analysis, I take that as a reason to say "Ok, please inform me, I want to learn" My ultimate goal is to make money, to be on the right side of the trade. I don't care if that comes from VSA, Bollinger Bands, Using a Stochastic, or what house of the sun the moon is in. But that is me. Sledge
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Milliard- Heh, no offense taken in the least. I'll PM you. Sledge
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To update my trade, Overnight session pumped up and stalled. I closed out the pending trade- so no trade transpired. Sledge
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Ok folks- LIVE TRADE SET-UP: GBP/USD On the 1 hr charts you see 2 wide spread up bars today- very nice sign of weakness. Before the NY close you saw selling on the "upthrust" bar, you then saw a "test" on the next followed by the next few hours of jockeying. You then see no demand bars to confirm downside potential (Marked with X's) I'm setting up for a Short tonight on the GBP, a slug of weakness came in today and rapidly overbought the market, should be a nice buckle under the weight of all of that coming in: Sell Stop at 1.9872 Target-1.9830 The Sell Stop is 10 pips below the low of the last "test" As well as--If it is a true breakout, the 1.9830 with the time lapse will be above the trendline off the down trend we are coming out of so that trendline can act as support now. See you in the AM! Sledge
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Heh, and when is it not? :o One of these days I'll actually understand all of the lingo trading. It was a good read with Art, Anna and yourself. But I think I got a bit lost back there- I'll catch up!
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Sorry for my delay here- a few "Life issues" cropped up in the last 48 hours. Yes sir, working shorts when I can get in on the high side. But have been having some good fortune taking the longs on the pump-ups also. Love this market- can win no matter which direction you favor!
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Dan and Ed- Although their is some disagreement, I use what I call the "lull time" That period between 4:00 EST and around 1:00 AM EST as a marker for future price activity. Yes the volume is very low, and it must be taken into account that their is less activity, but the market does not just "stop" at that time. My "Lull Time" analysis has gotten pretty good at confirming the next set-up. Perfect Example was last night on the Cable. You saw the market ride down all day in the NY session after a London Bull push. When the dust settled, you saw yourself in new low ground, followed by two very nice tests (you could tell their was buying on both bars- I think this was around 7:00 and 8:00. I placed my Long and put a 54 pip target. I woke this morning to a very nice closed out trade. It actually pummled the 54 pips and pushed over 100 last night before the retreat. But hey- I made 54 pips while I slept! I firmly believe that this "lull time" is not a time to "write off" it is a time to pay particular attention. As Tom Williams says- Market Makers will use Low Volume time to accumulate or distribute. My .02 Sledge
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I agree, and I actually question why it really only took 2 pages of bantering here for multiple people to reach this conclusion, and yet in both VSA threads it was a constant distraction that seemed to drag on and on for pages about how "worthless" VSA was. Great thread though. Reason being- after what yourself and lote_tree perfectly articulated, it may subdue the doubters- for now. But when the itch comes back to trounce VSA in a month or 6 months, we in the VSA II thread will have a thread to point the "haters" to- in order to wack around VSA like a dollar store pinata and vent once again. :o Sledge
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JJ- As this market is not my baby, I will tread lightly moreso than try and rally some great response. I agree with you 100% As far as the volume on that Failed Test, it is nearly identical in volume to the down bar, closing on the high of the bar from I think it was the 22nd? I am not sure what volume it would show to become a solid long-term "long" entry (as each instrument is different.) All- With that being said- with that much volume on both down bars, it appears that a long term banging around in this price area will have to occour for a while to get volume to a point that you could say that supply is out of the market. By VSA standards, this appears that you would be quite safe to Short on the highs and ride them down to this low over and over, I'd change my tune when one of these tests had pretty low volume (relative to the other tests taking place) OR you saw a huge shakeout. Remember that if you see a high volume test- it will come back to test later. It appears this market will test at least 3 times, and I'd be fairly stunned if they got all the supply out even on the next test- unless the market makers drove it to the basement and you had a wildly long and wicked tail on a shakeout. Your other option is that you could go long out of a test and grab a few ticks to the upside as well. Sledge
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A Resounding YES!
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Duly noted. Maybe we can amp up our calls in this way. I have no problem with trying to do this. Funny part is, I get in the trade, close out and fail to remember to post results! Sledge
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Thanks CW, you seem to have firmly grasped the reasoning I made the initial post. I had no idea the controversy it would spark. I'll keep posting whatever charts I feel are VSA relevant, I'll continue to ask the questions or pose the challenges. It is how I learn, it is how many learn. Sledge
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Well put JJ. As we all know (VSA followers, Candle traders, whatever) there are different traders with different goals, account sizes and methods to making what they feel they want on the trade! All can be winners in their niche. To the the doubters- I guess I can't help you out. If VSA is garbage in your opinion, then I'm not the guy to try and sway you. I make $ using it, I like it. Sorry posting a chart for discussion prompted a "VSA is SH*T" backlash. Sledge
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The only way any VSA trader, candlestick trader, Pivot Trader, S/R trader or any other trader could possibly make a real-time trade to show any doubter that it works was if this was a live chart webinar thread. Not sure of James bandwidth, but I can't see that happening. On your candlestick corner- do you have set webinars with live charts running just so people can't say your full of sh*t, or do you do what we do here and post our trades After the fact with proof they were right- or wrong? Sledge
