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Sledge
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Everything posted by Sledge
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Ha Ha Ok ok, I need to expand my horizons, I get it Well I may be at a great place to do just that. I have been utilizing the GBP/USD as my currency pair of choice almost exclusively for about 6 months. Maybe it is time to see what else is out there- beyond this 2 star town. :rofl: Cowpip: Thanks, as I have been always told- the only stupid question is the one not asked! Thanks for the support! Aaron
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Another question (What a shock I know) I have posted a Daily GBP/USD chart and wondered if I could get some feedback on it. On the chart below and if you watch this pair as of the last 2 weeks or so, it has been a constant and daily up and down battle. The blue lines are the top of the channel that is in a downward trend off the 2.0397 high of 3/24/08 The red lines are the ever shrinking ping pong match that we have seen transpire ever since the 4/17/08 channel breakout. We see clear testing of supply on the top of that channel and we also see the range of movement starting to get to the point of constriction where little movement (i.e. elbow room) is in there to make a play. My consideration is that this pair will indeed breakout to the upside farily soon, but I'm still humble enough to be skeptical of it and not 100% sure that I am reading it the right way. It appears to be basing, but with little signs of long tails to show testing, or long wick bars to show attempt to go up with extreme selling going on, this is a tough nut to crack. Their just are not clear signs to look at. Add into it the fact I just learned a few days ago that at month end, inventory build-up or book tidying may be taking place- makes the pond a little more muddy. I'd like to learn from this chart, maybe someone sees something I do not on it-to someone it may be clear as crystal of what is transpiring, but since I have just recently moved into the longer term, zoom out, phase of my trading, I have yet to see something like this. Thanks, Aaron
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Cowpip and Anna- Wonderous depth. Thank you for your clarification!! Cowpip: You are indeed correct that the bias is a downward trend, and one would have to be VERY careful in taking a long trade in this situation. As I don't trade this pair personally, figured I could ask this general question off the charts provided. Apologies if I meant to say that anything in forex is a simple- buy here and sell here scenario. As with all trades the utmost eye and keen awareness is critical to maximizing the trade and watching it carefully. Anna- Thank you as well. This is a great, sort of, all encompassing post that tidy's up some loose ends in my head. See I'm still at a phase (who knows if this would mature later on in the trading career) that if I were able to grab a 100 pip move- even if on a one day bounce. That for me is a stellar day and one that will put plenty of profit into the account. I'm kind of a chicken s*it in the sense that if I gain 100 pips, I take it and bank $. The pullbacks are for me to re-assess and look to see if their is another opportunity for entry. As you folks are far greater skilled than I am, I would expect (as your clients probably do) that a 100 pip move and peeling off the position would not be acceptable to them. But you guys play in the majors, I'm still in the bush league ;-) Once again, I thank you both for your contribution and insight. This is by far the most kick-ass thread going on the TL forum- hands down! Aaron
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Andre- You are the man! Thanks for the clarification on both. I figured you meant something along those lines with the "grid" but wanted to be sure. I know you guys pay zero attention to Waves, dots, or other items. But I wasn't sure if you did look at the angle of the ascent or descent as part of your technical analyis. All of these answers are helpful in lifting the fog for me. So is it fair to say that the prices on these instruments will travel between these zones fairly easily without much resistance? Obviously you'll get your early exit folks on a bull move who will close positions and temporarily stunt the forward (upward progress) but if I am to use your example if I were keen enough to have gone long @ .7750, would I be farily confident to let that ride until it gets to the 780 neighborhood (zone) and then re-assess upon its arrival @ 780 to see if: A. It would form a contuniation pattern and stay in the trade or B. See a rejection or reversal pattern and cash out Am I getting warmer? Much Thanks! Aaron
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I feel like I am a bundle of questions today. This one is for Art: You mentioned in a number of posts "2 way stop activity" or "2 Way" Could you define the term and possibly elaborate on it and how it may apply to the term "2 Way stop activity" or maybe their is such a thing as "2 way continuation activity" if I am thinking of it correctly? In one post you had mentioned "I'm essentially seeking out confirmation of probable 2 way stop activity" Does this mean that in a consolidation period or "zone" that you are seeking bars that paint as a "Doji" or defined as a bar where it appears the bears and bulls interests are conflicting? In order to prime yourself for your next move- either you will let the position ride and continue or you will see this area as a signal to exit your positions or scale out? Thank you. Aaron
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Milliard- I was going back over the thread and wondered if you could explain the Horizontal Grids you mentioned in #1 above? Do you simply mean in the "Gann" sense you are looking at the charts as plotted and using a trained eye to judge angle (i.e. faster it shoots, quicker it will be overbought or oversold?) Thanks, Aaron
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Art- Thank you sir, awareness is key. This information I would most likely utilize, as I do the news- which is that I am aware of a news release, but I don't utilize it as an entry point or opportunity to get into a position, in fact I stay away from it and may close out early if close to target if not already hit prior to the tornado of volitility to come. Generally, I'm out of my position and buttoned up for the day prior to the NY 8:30 News times if at all possible. But this information regarding End of Month is something I will most definately be looking back to see some examples of. Much Thanks for the clarification. Aaron
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Hmm... I would like to know more about this from anyone who may be able to elaborate. Is this an even larger picture in force? This is news to me. Would like to hear more about this. Sledge
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As far as the news, my own .02: As a rookie trader I tried my hand at the news release game, I think everyone does, they see ALL THIS ACTIVITY, they see "WHOA if I was in on a Long, I would have made 40 pips in the blink of an eye" It is a very sexy way to dress the devil. I utilize the news now only to be aware of the news and how that may affect a S&R level. Will it fuel it higher/lower or will it trap the unknowing and take their lunch money? Trader Storytime: Scene: On the Heels of a most powerful NFP data release And Action: A trader sees a topping area and some consolidation prior to the release they see a nice uptrend in the background, they say "WOW this market is STRONG (he he) what a day to go long whoo hoo- I'm a gonna be rich today!" 5 minutes before the release you see that row of "Strong" green bars suddenly start to fade into down bars. The greenhorn trader says "They KNOW something- FORGET the Long- I'm going SHORT!" "Yup this is DEFINATELY a shorting day!- I'm gonna be RICH!" He opens his position Short. The news hits- the market shoots northward. The once wouldbe long trader that went short instead is freaking! His stop is smashed in a matter of seconds, he beats his computer desk with FURY as he knew he should have taken that DAMN Long! After his short entry stop is smashed to bits- he says "Fine, I'll make it up" and places his order on a Long position. Then like a bad dream- the market stalls and begins to drop- it was a trap-OH NO. :doh: The now Long trader is pissed and the "F-Bombs" are FLYING around the room along with various other objects! The trap locked him in long and the market is falling like a comet out of the sky! He gets stopped out again, licks his wounds but is scared now after an "0 for 2" in a 5 minute span that he just can't imagine going short- he thinks he should, no he KNOWS he should, but "should I" he asks himself? The market continues to fall, falling like a 2 ton boulder out of the mountains- "There is no stopping this train" he thinks and "This isn't some Kiddie Ride train and Disneyland- this is a Japaneese Bullet Train!" So he waits and waits and waits- when he just can't STAND missing out on a position he KNEW he was right all along- BAM he gets in short, just as the bar closes- "thank god for that- I'm in!" relief comes over him as he thinks "No problem, this move will make it all back- the bullet train has just left the station, it has plenty of track to run on!" Then here comes the covering or "dead cat bounce" and northward we go. "HERE WE GO AGAIN" cries the short trader- "I CAN'T FRIGGIN BELIEVE THIS" and now he is once again back in negative bankroll. He decides "Screw this, I'm getting out- this is some fixed game" and manually closes before his stop gets taken out. Now "0 for 3" he's a mess. He can't for the life of him figure out what went wrong. He takes no position and just watches. He's toast for the day! That dead cat bounce bar closes and downward again we fall. The Short Trader says "F-This" and goes to the mall to find a job at Best Buy! End Scene And Folks: THAT is the News for today- Now Sports!
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Yeah, Milliard asked me why do I even play with this "snotty camel" or something of that nature I'm getting a good bit of practice playing on both sides of the ping pong net with the GBP/USD though!
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Anna- Thank you once again for your reply and question answering, I am most appreciative of your efforts, it means more than you know! Cowpip- Basically, I know they get to have access to things that we as retail traders do not and I know that for them being so close to the action, they have a very heightened sense of the market and its quirks. Since we in the thread have been graciously been given a gift to speak with these folks, scratch that, not only speak and ask questions of- but to have them answered and answered with such depth and description is a phenominal and trading life altering scenario. I think that with this openess and continued dialogue, my personal goal is to hope to sharpen my trading skills and give me that "edge" that you spoke of in your post (Step #1) I personally do very well at my trading, but I am always open to honing my craft- to make it, more profitable, more fluid, and if possible and easier road to take. I think all of the questions posed to the Anna, Art and Milliard have been learning in nature- we have yet to have someone post and say "Ok should I go short or long on XYZ" and expect these folks to just give out "hot trading tips" or abusing their kindness. What they are doing for us is offering to help us, help ourselves- if we know the right questions to ask- They are teaching us how to fish so that we may eat for life, instead of giving us the fish so that we may eat for just one day! Sledge
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Anna-Maria- Through my course of study I have heard little whispers here and there about how some folks who trade GBP/USD for example are wise to watch GBP/JPY or another GBP currency cross. Andre also made a nice statement about looking at GBP/CHF or another GBP cross to verify if this activity on GBP/USD is a fluke or if the moves are, well in a sense, REAL. Would you possibly elaborate on the use of watching other currency crosses that a trader may not personally trade that pair, but may be a good insight to see whether the moves are indeed true or a "fit being thrown" by one of the children? I can't imagine anyone actually looking at say GBP/JPY and saying "Alright- GBP/JPY just tanked last night- I'll go short on GBP/USD" but some places I have found on this wonderful WWW have stated that very dangerous stance. How much weight do these crosses carry on the other pairings? Also is it safe to say that one "cross" is the main focus while the other pairings are more fringe crosses (i.e. is say the GBP/USD the big brother and the GBP/JPY or GBP/CHF the little brother and sister to the GBP/USD?) Thanks! Aaron
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Thank you Anna-Marie. I foresee the GBP/USD this evening on a similar path. We have been playing the ping pong between 1.9960 and 1.9680 for a week + now. Every day I work to see if we are close to one or the other- and gauge whether it has momentum to break the line or is it going to bounce like a vending machine rubber ball- then back the other direction we go. Looks as if their was still plenty of activity- even with the Rate Decision tomorrow- a lot of times we see a slow down, other times, it acts as if it is of no concequence what so ever. The "Double boxed area" on your chart- did you mark it to show that beautiful row of test bars? That is a pretty sight. Testing and a lot of buying on the lows going on- and what a beautiful space ship launch off the pad as a result! Aaron
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Naveen- KPcurrency is the same guy as PivotProfiler who posted here. He tore down all of his work in the VSA thread, but one of the super talented Moderators took a lot of time to restore the work by matching charts up with the text. You can see the restored thread of VSA I here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/vsa-volume-spread-analysis-1369.html Hopefully this helps you! Sledge
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Milliard- I cannot do any more justice to follow-up the post that cowpip made. I think he covered it quite well. I also THANK YOU for an outstanding and carefully crafted response once again. My hat is off to you! Cowpip- A stellar follow-up post and a most beautifully articulated group of thoughts. I agree with you 1000% about the larger timeframes and am glad to know that this somehow natural progression I made (without really realizing it) to Daily, 4 hr and 1 hr charts is indeed the path to further success. It made a tremendous difference in "pip gain" when I cherry picked my set-ups utilizing these much larger timeframes. To have folks such as yourself and Milliard continually confirm the stance speaks volumes to anyone who may run across this thread. The hope is that a very green and eager trader will read, absorb and attempt. No doubt the "paint drying" will initially be to slow for them, they will bang their head hard on the 1 minute wall, the hope is they come to their senses before their seed capital runs out, remember this advice posted and say "I remember this thread somewhere on a forum that spoke to larger timeframes.. where is my Google bookmark?" Sledge
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Fair enough- any chance that retail traders are able to do this without having access to the tools you have at your disposal? I.E. most information I decipher from chart reading is that if we see a rounding bottom formation it is generally accepted that it is a sign of accumulation and higher prices to come, conversely- if we see a rounding top, we are seeing distribution and an inevidable decline. How is a retail trader able to read this negative chatter? Are we able to surmise this from reading the bars? Can you explain the "Stops being layered" part of this explination. Does this mean that retail traders have S/L marks layered along that 9960 and 2.0030 path or the bigger players have these stops? Maybe I missed your point completely. Sorry still trying to nail down the jargon. Soon I hope I'll understand the "termage" :o One other thing to add to the mix: When we see a price poke its head above resistance and then duck back down on the next bar or bars, how do we determine if this was a true rejection of price vs a "buyers remorse" or "profit taking?" Thanks for your patience and replies! Aaron
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I think I understand- please correct me. In this situation you would not have closed out as you saw the sideways action as a normal pause and not a reason to exit your long? Yes this would be correct, at present I am not in on a position, and it is quite possible that the ship has sailed and I missed the boat. I'm cool with missing the boat as long as I can utilize this missed passage to learn from it and be sure to get on the boat next time it is in port Ok I need clarification a bit on this if you can. If you are in an uptrending market and you have a "pause" or a "hesitation" you would add in and BUY when seeing higher highs and higher lows? Conversely, you would on a downtrending market on the same "hesitation" you would add in only if their were lower highs and lower lows? Also to clarify, there may be two different types of set-ups that I would like to discuss: 1. Their are "pauses" or "breathers" in the market. 2. Their are Retraces. I am assuming that this strategy you outlines above is for "hesitations" and NOT for a retrace Yes? On a retrace you would have a different strategy to look for testing and buy the bottoms if possible correct? I agree with you completely, Trying hard to make this as "uncomplicated" a process as possible. Sooner than later I'll be able to see through all of it with extreme clarity, because of you and your crew over there, you are assisting the clarity process to come to fruition more and more on a daily basis. Thank you for your replies! Sledge
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Not sure if Art is around but I wanted to refer back to the charts again that were posted on page #1 of this thread referring to the GBP/USD. Right now the currency pair bounced off the 1.9680 Support and is heading back towards the 1.9960 Resistance level. This is a VERY elementary question as I am very new to utilizing these hard S&R levels, but hopefully after a large laugh you may be able to answer: Is it reasonable to assume that since the market will not shoot straight from 1.9680 to 1.9960 without hesitation that markets GENERALLY will move towards that next level after it has bounced? Hopefully articulated a bit better. I took a Long after it tested and retreated from the 1.9680 level. I closed out after 70 pips. There was a huge 4 hour up bar that knocked the market sideways silly in the morning (NY/London overlap) on Friday. Last night (Monday Morning 4/28) in London the boys kept pushing north towards the 1.9960. Long of the short of someone sitting in your shoes is when in doubt, with room to grow towards that 1.9960 target would anyone hesitate to continue to be long on that pair until it got close to the 1.9960 mark? From what I have gathered from all of you folks, it appears that you would have gone long at the bottom test, held, waited for the stall and possibly added in. Your watchful eyes would be focused on the 1.9960 level like a hawk and then would make a decision of what your next move would be as it gets into this "Hot Zone" But as I do not want to assume how your minds work, I was hoping if I was getting this down the correct way or if I am way off base? Much Thanks! Sledge
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There he is, Jwhite I saw him on the chat and he noted tradersaudio dot com, so I did some digging- knew somehow I'd end up back here at TL. James- do you know of any CME feeds for currencies? I don't trade S&P or anything else tradersaudio dot com offers. I may just listen to a trial of what they have to offer- just to hear it live, but it will not do me much good if I don't trade in the markets that they offer pit noise for. Sledge
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Gid- Thanks for a chime in to support these as well and welcome to the forum, judging by your post, you appear to have a nice foundation of trading skill already. Hope you can dig some nuggets out of the forum as well! Sledge
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UPDATE from My Prior Post (#1117) on: GBP/USD Long Long 4/23/08 Went long in the last "Hot Zone" (Blue bar on left of chart)on 4/23/08 Wednesday night market needed to further test for supply as well as throughout the NY session. It appeared as if upon entry that testing was done- apparently it was not No worries because in Thursday London and NY session you saw even stronger signs of testing than in the "Hot Zone." To make allowance for the "dip" and test of supply, My S/L was moved down to accomidate for the "dip" and further testing. This is why I advocate that you "take what the market gives you." My target was much higher and right now it is in a resting state and may be achieved ultimately, but by taking what the market gives instead of demanding it from the market, I woke up to a wonderfully executed trade. Result: Long @ 1.9790 on 4/23/08 Target (T/P) Moved from 1.9927 to 1.9860 Results: Friday AM London Session- Target Achieved Notice on this 4 hr chart that the 4 hr bar that on the secondary test is a HUGE volume bar, if you watched it form in real time (or drilled down) you would have seen that it was of very low volume (relatively) as it touched bottom and worked its way up to open before shooting off the launchpad. Chart with Results:
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LIVE TRADE SET-UP: GBP/USD 4/23/08 Attaching two charts (1 hr and 4 hr.) We see our friendly consolidation zones tonight showing a very nice accumulation phase --Buying on the lows at the bottom of the "zone" and testing of supply. Current trade: Long at 1.9786 Target: Conservative at 1.9927 --below the bottom of the last supply area.
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Yes GBP/USD is in rangebound hell right now. Took a short last night and closed out with only 6 pips- it is acting very stubborn right now to want to break out! Sledge
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Cowpip- Stellar work! Time and dedication to my studies is something I pride myself on. So that is a good thing to note- that with the passing of time and dedication to learning is what it really takes. You figure in less than a year I have graduated from a 1min chart scalper making about 5 pips a day, to a 1 day and 4 hr chartist that got bummed last night because I only took 26 pips on my GBP/USD long. :o If you feel so inclined- would you share more of these "after the trade" situation/outcomes as you trade them as you have here? These "after the fact" trades that give detail on your thought process while you were taking them in real-time will go a long way in assisting me (and others as well) in honing this valuable skill. Nicely done! Sledge
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Cowpip, Milliard and Torero: Excellent discussion and points made by all and exactly correct. I see the new trader liking the "action" of the 1 minute charts- the dinging, the clanging, the slot machine jackpot mentality, the "Action" they get starry eyed at a quick buck, as correctly stated above. I personally also utilize the drill down method as well. I look inward from a Daily and 4 hr chart planning my move, I drop down to a 1 hour bar chart and if set-up looks good, I will also drop to a 1 minute chart to pinpoint entry for maximum pip squeezage. I am starting to see my trading from a much more defined perspective with the insight given here, I no longer see consolidation or sideways action as a market to stay away from- but a market to watch carefully as "something is brewing." Now all I must do is learn to better analyze those "hot zones" of consolidation to be much more accurate in determining what my next move will be. Milliard: I Love this quote- "As you rightly point out; you got to earn your stripes thru experience before attempting to take price on down at the rough & dirty end of the street." Thanks all for your posts! Sledge
