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Seb Manby

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Everything posted by Seb Manby

  1. Seb Manby
    Tuesday 22nd April 08. I expected today to be an up day, but the market decided otherwise, there was no distribution at the end of the market, so it was not so easy to know that Tuesday would be down. Today on the Sp Emini there was distribution at the end of today, and so I expect Wednesday to open down on the open. Yesterday on the Dow cash market, we had a test, this failed today, meaning the market is weak, there was a test Thursday and Friday was up, so there was strength last week, but the market has turned bearish today so I now wait for a low volume up day or 'No Demand' to confirm that the market is weak. There is an image of me with some clerks outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago for you to view. Regards Sebastian
  2. Seb Manby
    Test on the Dow Jones Daily, Monday 21st April 08 If Tuesday is an up day, then today Monday was a test and indicates a potentially strong market. Expect higher prices. If Tuesday is a down day, then the market is weak, but I think the market is strong now for this week. Regards Sebastian
  3. Seb Manby
    Hi Bearbull; I do read the bars individually, and I wish I had more time to contribute to this thread, but I am in Chicago at the moment, and the horizon won't clear until after the 17th. After that I will try to spend more time answering your questions. Best Sebastian
  4. Seb Manby
    Hi Candle W; A good text well written, but you have missed a point, Upthrusts are also there to catch stops from other shorts who can also read the balance of supply and demand, especially those who got in too early, and it happens all the time, prices are moves around deliberately to process orders and to catch stops, also to hide professional strategy to manipulate prices to make a profit, as this is the objective of the professionals in the first place. It is a good point to note that the professionals are also trying to catch the other professional money out as well, you have to think of the market as a war zone where you do not have 2 opposing armies, just a free for all firefight where everyone is fighting everyone. Regards Sebastian
  5. Seb Manby
    Dow is showing weakness after the FED cut rates, this shows that the Specialist's took the opportunity to distribute stock they had bought from the public at the lows at around 11800 level, rarely at a loss to themselves of course. Point A, up bar with the high lower than the previous high, and look at the volume! remember that markets do not like high volume on upbars, unless tested immediately. Point B, there is a test and all looks rosy and looking strong at this point. C, A down bar after a test, this is weakness, well this bar says it all, I can now look forward to lower prices, look for a 'No demand' into the 12600 level to confirm the downtrend. And don't forget to post your short trades for all to study. Regards S
  6. Seb Manby
    I don't know who you are, but I think that of all the people posting to these volume analysis threads, I think you will get there quicker, because you are studying the book and applying the context to your charts, that is how I broke through the fog. Keep going, you'll get there soon enough. Well done S
  7. Seb Manby
    great, sounds like your making progress, keep it up. Regards S
  8. Seb Manby
    If you are looking at a 1 min chart you might not see a 'no demand' bar appearing, the high volume shows the deep pocket traders are active, I would imagine that just selling short into an up bar on a volume spike, you should not go far wrong, but you have to have nerves of steel for that. I traded on what I saw developing at that moment, which was weakness. I know that the Eurex have market makers because there is a list of banks on their website under market makers, that Dax is manipulated to the extreme as they try to figure out the next move in the US contracts, but being able to read volume in the correct way gives you a level playing field in which you can piggy back their objectives. Hope this answers your question. Regards S
  9. Seb Manby
    Hi Bearbull; Good question, I shorted on 'no demand' as we were in a down trend, i took advantage of an opportunity to short, and closed out when I thought the balance of supply and demand were changing, yes I should have stayed in, but i cannot place stops where I want them with ninja trader, so I just go out when I saw a potential shaking out. Regards S
  10. Seb Manby
    Hi Rodney; yes is the answer to your question, it appeared that strength might be returning to the market. Regards S
  11. Seb Manby
    My buddie Joel Pozen sent me this video of himself trading live in his class, thought I'd share it with you. Joel studied Richard Ney and Tom Williams and is able to apply his knowledge to the real time market. Regards S. Movie_0001.wmv
  12. Seb Manby
    Stop-loss below the previous low away from the current price, as in trade 2, and exit strategy would be when strength entering the market. Regards S
  13. Seb Manby
    I would never be interested in a trade at point A, you would be giving your money away. On the 1 minute chart you have a closer picture of supply and demand, too close for me, but when the opportunity's arise, you will see them on a 3 minute chart as well, and you won't be whipsawed all over the place. Point B is a down bar, the previous bar is no demand. 4 bars prior to A is where I would have shorted on the 1 minute chart. Regards Sebastian
  14. Seb Manby
    Trade 1 shows how volatile the DAX can be, and yes you can make money but you have to keep your whits about you. Trade 2 shows money management, the volume was higher on the bar that I entered, but in an uptrend at that time I thought the trade was valid. The next videos will be retained for the symposium, but will later appear on the web site. I prefer to make videos like this as it shows in real time where I would get in, and where I would exit on either side up or down. Regards Sebastian Live trade 1.wmv Live trade 2.wmv
  15. Seb Manby
    Hi All; I am checking out some code I put into MS, I will use TradeGuider for the rest of my trades, I think that it is easy to post text onto charts that have come and gone, and I just thought you might find this video interesting, I thought you might like to see VSA in action instead of yap,yap,yap. This one has no sound, Dax trade on 3m chart with eSignal and MS Regards Seb Live trade.wmv
  16. Seb Manby
    Hi BearBull; Thank you for your questions.
  17. Seb Manby
    A very interesting thread this part 2, You seem to be mixed up in a debate regarding predicting the future? why would anyone try to accomplish such a feat? surely your energy would be better served observing the big boys with deep pockets, ie, demand swamping supply and then 'no supply'. My personal strategy is to wait patiently for the smart money to make their move, then wait until they are done, and then follow the path of least resistance, that is what I do, it works for me and I've posted enough charts around the place in case your interested in looking them up. Best Sebastian
  18. Seb Manby
    Hi Joel; Good to see you in here, I was thinking of emailing you the link as you have had some good press from your mentees. Best wishes Sebastian
  19. Seb Manby
    Hi PivotProfiler; For 'No demand' to be correct, you have to have weakness in the background, if you get a sign of strength followed by no demand, then it means that the smart money are not interested in higher prices at that time, and you should be careful if going in, the other thing I find is that most of you seem to view the VSA indicators in isolation, instead of putting them all together to create a complete picture, you have to view the indicators in the same way as a musician, ie read the script and put it all together as the time unfolds. Hope this post was helpful. Regards S
  20. Seb Manby
    Please see attached video regards Sebastian Sheptrader.wmv
  21. Seb Manby
    Regards Sebastian
  22. Seb Manby
    Must be on a down bar on high volume, with next bar up. Look for testing in a rising market or higher prices. If bar closes off the low, then demand swamping supply(bullish) Regards S
  23. Seb Manby
    Sorry, I cannot as they are VSA indicators as Tom wanted them in TradeGuider, I would be in breach of copyright, and Tom says that he does not object to me having them on my chart as long as I don't give them away. Regards S
  24. Seb Manby
    Please forgive me everyone if I fail to reply to your questions quickly, I have so little time spare, I try to answer when I have time. If others can help out if they know the answer, then I would be grateful. Regards S
  25. Seb Manby
    low bar closing on the lows with high volume will mean: I assume you mean a down bar, if it is a down bar with a wide spread closing on the lows on high volume, then this is weakness unless the next bar is up, if it has a narrow spread and very low volume, then yes strength has appeared, but it should be in a rising market with a shakeout in the background, or some sort of strength. Regards S Regards
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