suriNotes

Hi Taq, Thank you for your post. 2B Targets are prior Swing Lows/Highs before the pattern emerged and its distance ratios. To my knowledge books from Scott Carney, Carolyn Borden, Robert Miner, Larry Pesavento and Bryce Gilmore offered timing analysis/projections theories. There may be others and if I remember I will post again. Regards, Suri

Hi Taq, Yes, it is a Inverse Dragon setup. Thanks for posting 240m chart. No need to have 5% minimum for the Dragon legs. Dragon setup is one of the variation of Double Tops/Bottoms. Very rarely DT and DB's have perfect bottoms/tops. Here is another take on the same @ZG 240m chart. It is Trader Vic's 2B Top (Irregular Top/Bottom) with Entry/Stop/Targets. Regards, Suri

Here are two charts of Gold... 1. Inv. H&S Chart (LT?) with Bullish ABC & Targets (from Jun. 5th) 2. Current ABC Bearish Pattern with Price/Time Cycle Regards, Suri

Some of the other charts during WW setup (H&S, ABC Bearish calls) for above @ES 610T Regards, Suri

@ES (610T) Wolfe Wave on June 11th... regards, Suri

Excellent Article on Fear by Price Headley.. http://www.tradersjournal.com/component/content/article/28-trading-psychology/91-conquer-the-4-fears-of-trading Regards, Suri

Pappo is correct with his assessment of Pattern logic and coding/testing patterns. In my experience, patterns do have excellent reliability with great repeatable logic. Many successful traders have implemented patterns/code logic to take advantage of them. Most pattern success or failure depends on knowing the pattern logic with market context and knowing how/where they are forming. Without market context logic, testing patterns is a futile exercise. Programmers tend to miss this logic when testing patterns. Also, individual mastering of patterns requires thorough market knowledge and experience and mastery may be limited to just few patterns. Coding patterns may be more difficult for even most seasoned programmers too. Excellent trading ideas are discarded due to poor coding and poor back-testing methods. I have seen this many times in my career as many brilliant programmers with great ideas but with little or no trading knowledge discard their concepts as not profitable due to novice back-testing methods/results. Also, each trading platform have various trade execution logic and hence many Automated Trading Systems back/forward testing results suffer from wrong/poor execution methods. Here is an example of a recent Bloomberg Article where TA was slandered. "Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss (Update3)" by Michael Tsang and Eric Martin Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss (Update3) - Bloomberg.com Tsang and Martin (journalists) with little TA and no real trading/investing/programming experience published an article and slandered the TA and indicators due to their wrong back-testing results... Bloomberg published the article as it was written by their journalists. Many TA experts (Murphy, McClellen et. al.) have written their concern to Bloomberg. The editors at Bloomberg have softly admitted but sadly it was never removed. Regards, Suri

SENSEX Chart Update.. Regards, Suri

Hi ephi144, Yes, you can build tools based on Tick Counts... The count itself can be obtained by UpTicks & DownTicks. Here is an article I discussed some Intrabar Execution tools using Time & Tick Counts etc. (Stocks and Commodities Magazine, July 2008) Intrabar Execution Tools Regards, Suri

Other over-lay tools (graphics tools) I use to measure Screen Angles, distances, pixels etc.. MB-RULER: MB-Ruler - the triangular screen ruler Screen Ruler:A Screen Ruler Regards, Suri

Here is my version of BarNumber Scale ELD posted on TS Forums (from 2005) https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=35089 Regards, Suri

Hi Taz, Thanks for your post... I am not a big follower of Cycle theories, but I noticed the symmetry of swings and thought it was an interesting find.... JM Hurst talks about 40-period cycle (and others) to describe trends in his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" and 1/2 cycle (20 period) lengths to find targets/patterns etc. Regards, Suri

NSE NIFTY INDEX Chart Regards, Suri

ES 41-day Cycle chart... Regards, Suri

Here is SENSEX charts... Monthly and Daily charts. Possible resistance soon?? Regards, Suri

Hi taq, Good work!! I do think your WW chart is correct. I have access to EOD data for some stocks from India.. But do not have intraday data for BSE/NSE stocks to plot in TS. Your second chart also looks good. AB=CD pattern completion may not mean automatic reversal... It does require Price-Action (LLs) and some pivotal action from 'D' level to signal a reversal. Thanks for your posts. Regards, Suri

Trading PC: Dell 20" (6) monitors... Dell 3.4 GHz, XPP, 4 GB, nVidia nvs400,TS Data Server: Dell 22" (2) Monitors.. Dell 3.2 Ghz, XPP, 2 GB, SQL, ColdFusion Laptop SONY Vaio.. 2.6 GHz, 1GB... Regards, Suri

Hi, There is a simple trick (in TS) using Plot commands... If you convert the number to a String, it will plot the value in StatusLine like in this chart and it will NOT plot line on chart... (Add Analysis Technique display from Format Window for StatusLine) Pl. see the code below and the chart images. Regards, Suri //ADX Modified inputs: Length(14), ADXCriteria(20); variables: ADXValue(0), adxColor(0); //Begin ADX Code ADXValue = ADX(Length); if ADXValue < ADXCriteria then adxColor = DARKGREEN else adxColor=RED; Plot1("ADX: "+ numtoStr(ADXValue,2),"ADXVal",adxColor);

Thanks Waveslider.. I'll check out WWs again. Regards, Suri

Great advice provided by others... As Soultrader said, with your current situation, trading may NOT be a great option. Scared money NEVER makes money in Trading. Without proper mindset and preparation, imagine how devastated you would be if you lose your capital in next few weeks to months and how tough it would be to get back. Don't underestimate Failure... Trading career is one of the few careers where success rate is very small and could be elusive for a very long time. Trading career is also one of the toughest as it demands you to be in your best of mind and body every single day to succeed. There are other careers which are far better than trading career and may offer better security and life. Very smart and successful people (in other areas) are drawn to trading world, but few realize quickly trading may not be their best bet and move on to other rewarding ventures. Evaluate yourself first and see if trading really fits you and your overall goal. Take a year or two and learn the basics, build a plan, method or system with some solid analysis... More importantly work on yourself, your goals and how you will achieve them. No one mastered the markets without mastering themselves first. Education plays a big role and psychology plays even bigger role in your success. Write a journal (honest) of all of your progress and see in a year or two if you do want to venture Trading. Start slow and build confidence in yourself and your method/system first!! Wish you the best!! Regards, Suri

Here is a better chart of @ES Symmetry... Key Symmetry in this chart is XA and DT legs Symmetry (29 bars) and 205 pts at Key Ratios (76%) Regards, Suri

Hi taq, Thank you for your post... Before I can answer your question of 'where is the probable target', I will address if a Pattern is considered complete and if so, how to compute the targets etc. Computing Targets is the easy part From Scott Carney's Book(s): Harmonic Trading of the Financial Markets, Harmonic levels in reversal zones define critical levels from where the dominant trend may change. A Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) is defined as convergence of at least three or more Harmonic levels from the pattern. Strong reversal price-action and formation of pivots supported with cycles or Moving Averages etc. could signal completion of the pattern and potential reversal in its major trend. (See the SENSEX chart with reversal rules...) Also note, patterns also fail and prices reversed from the PRZs also fail to signal the reversal of trends (some pattern failures are more powerful than patterns). In the SENSEX chart (potential Bearish Crab) presented here, the PRZ is defined as price reaching three or more critical harmonic ratios (of XA, AB, CD legs) near a key MA (200 sma). So far the pattern did not indicate any completion signals. Also no clear indications if the price will reverse from PRZ (Lower-Lows, Pivoting action etc.) or any key pivot is made from the PRZ. Once a reversal is made, you can use Fib. Retracement tool to compute the Targets. Potential Targets would be 0.38CD level and 0.62CD to 0.786CD levels... If these target levels also coinciding with prior SwingHigh/lows or MAs, they may act as further support/resistance areas. Your risk of this short-trade may be highest level of the Pivot (D) + few points. So, from the current chart pattern, if pattern is complete and if price reverses from current (11000) levels, the first target may be near 10070 level and second target may be 9300 levels. Hope that answers your question. Regards, Suri

Bombay's SENSEX Bearish Crab pattern chart (near 200-SMA). and ABC Bullish Pattern charts... Regards, Suri

Minoo, Good Analysis... Here is Symmetry chart of @ES. Also see Rising Wedge pattern... Regards, Suri

Harmonic Patterns.. Regards, Suri