minoo

Article 'NYSE Bullish Percent Index Unbelievably Bullish' @ tradersnarrative site shows the NYSE BPI below every other crisis low from bear year of 1987 onwards; Interesting Chart. http://www.tradersnarrative.com/nyse-bullish-percent-index-unbelievably-bullish-1965.html +-----------------------------------+ This article discusses more bear bottoms wisdom 'Secular Or Cyclical Bottom… Or None At All?' The below two paras make sensible read -Volatilitius Maximus -Smart Money vs. Dumb Money http://www.tradersnarrative.com/secular-or-cyclical-bottom-or-none-at-all-1971.html +------------------------------------+ Its worth noting here though ( ) Never in the history of the free financial world we had seen such unprecendented 'action' from Governments during bear-market. This time the 'reactionary' bottom surely will have the official hand underneath it. In such circumstances, I wonder if one should interpret the characteristics of previously, politically unadulterated bear-markets, in the same way ? ? -Enjoy Minoo

I found this post on "Re: Ideas for Struggling Traders" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month October, 2008"

Hi Steve Could you please throw some light on how to handle this volatility. Bars over 10 ticks have recently stopped me out many times at entries and before my positions can reach the anticipated targets. It seems trailing stops need to be maintained even larger than placed at entries Please explain when you describe 800V as slow chart, when candles get built much quicker than say 2401V. I like the 800V as it plots smaller range candle comparatively than higher vol charts but find it difficult to handle (more decisions and more times it criss crosses the moving average lines rather than test or retest of them) Many Thanks Minoo

Hi Steve Yes you are absolutely right what you said about system & concepts One can only trade successfully ones own system otherwise I will land up trading against my own personality (traderself) with somebody else's trading plan. My aim was to simplify my system and after coming across your thread I started putting more attention to it! I similarly trade of Fib89 (Orange) and Fast89 (Yellow) but previously had too much of clutter on my charts Please have a look at my previous posted chart (at Page 5) and ponder through this simplified one What I have done so far, is taken your outstanding concepts (put it through my learning plan first) and weeded out the rest of my system. This has not only simplified my system and un-clutter my charts; But more importantly I find myself more a-tuned with my system with less decisions to make. I have live tested this system and so far the results are not only good but have been much easier to achieve. My support chart has all the weekly, monthly pivots, midpoint pivots, value areas, daily open etc on them I use this chart as an grid with the Fib89 lines and as usual I use Market Internals with the eMinis I look forward to your comments Regards Minoo

Steve, this is amazing, your reply helps a lot, learning quite a bit here my friend. The more I practise the trades your style and read your replies the more it sinks in. More importantly the belief in the system is building stronger. In the end of reply you suggest quite a bit of information to comprehend “anchor point is where limit might be located” Does this mean large limit order /s to be filled, so the floor traders bring the market to that level Do you pick this up via Squawk-box (what would Ben_L normally Squawk-speak here ?) Could you please further throw some light on this The trendline you draw between local low and anchor if its opposite to the 200MA slope you would still take trade in its direction if it shows evidence (3rd touch or 2nd touch ?). Many times this could be the first mean reversion trade to 200MA, if it has the momentum then they go on to reach an area (ie previous Hi/Lo or Globex Hi/Lo confluence with midpoint of daily pivot) adjacent above/below the 200MA. Please comment. I have sighed away from market profile charts and just use the POC as S&R & Virgin-POC same as historical unfilled gaps; Could you please show your weekly / daily profile-chart with the weekly figure / pivot ? you mention Many thanks man, for making this a quite enjoyable learning experience Regards Minoo

Steve Reference to your post 81 The $VOLD and $ADD both were negative right from the opening. If you dissect them further than the picture was even more negative, as Down Vol was much greater than Up Vol and also Declining Issues were much higher than Increasing Issues and this difference kept rising in the morning hour So my BIAS or preference was to the downside at the opening with 200MA sloping down, My trade preferences were shorts from 200MA Questions How did you derive your BIAS from & when ? Do you draw horizontal line at the regular hrs opening, (this is helping me) I eventually noted from my Big-Picture routine, after the opening hour Though Globex market had traded down much (ie Gap above to be filled), S&P Premium ($ESINX) was mostly above Fair Value A request to Smwinc could you please consider to start a dedicated thread on TL, it would be much appreciated Many Thanks Minoo

So far the best, I have come accross on Web A little Book of Flow http://lightworks.typepad.com/FlowHTML.html His other stuff is here, http://www.life2point0.com/ Enjoy Minoo

Hi I will try to further explain and give the last trade as an example, refer charts I use one minute candle on the $Tick for the Candle body and tail comparision, after taking into consideration of Implied-Demand / Supply in the pit and cash market reaction we decided to use one minute candles on NYSE Tick. (I also Use $NYA.X futures chart as anchor (big brother) chart to trade the eminis) Its possible to visualise 3, 4 or 5 minute candle from the one minute candles. Its also easy to see cumulation of tails or wicks above or below a $Tick level. If OBV-Hooked on price chart in the direction of $tick level cross, by a WRB Tailed or Wick Candle than I just go along with the trade. (This is important in my trading, ie permission to establish scalp position) When the price approaches an defined area confluence (or on Events like Trix or MACD divergence or Price Pivots plots @ area) I observe more of Internals than price action, ie Tape for contract flow (ES filtered to > 39), Tick (for candle crossing marked levels with Tail / Wicks and Body comparision) and Premium (for Prog Buy / Sell AND FV line cross after one way runs / exhautions, important indication for retracement or pullbacks) Check here if the divergence legs were only formed by Prog Buy / Sell and prices rebounced away with $TICK candle action (OBV-Hook as confirm) Example: Today after ER2 Gap of 8/4/08 got filled at 704.0 & ES G.Low (1220.25) & MidPivot S1S2 got crossed at 1219.3 HindSight Note: Trader Vic 2B Signal with MACD Divergence just below midpointpivot S1S2 & Premium Sell formed Div legs These area-confluence were good enough for me to prepare for scalp countertrend entries against downtrend for retracement move up; Tape, Tick and Premium lead the show at first divergence leg and reaction followed up strongly, by the time second divergence leg was completed (refer chart); so I scaled into my limited scalp counter trend entries to full positions. My initial target was 200MA retracement (orange in chart) and 24% Fib retracement, evetually went all flat at 38% retrace. So far for me this has been most effective method of trading with Confluence of Areas; Events (Price Pivots and Div, 2B, H&S etc) and Internals Reading of Tape Tick and Premium (Tick and Premium are on sound alert & flow of tape is near to price action) & OBV on price chart (as confirmation). I also use Verbally descriptive voice alerts and Visual auto plots of Div, Price Pivots, Areas, etc and I draw trendlines as soon as I can, to remain in tune/position with the market. Note: I use pit traded contract (ie SPU08.P) charts for Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivots, Reversal-Bar Pivot plots, MACD Divergence, 2B, Fib Calculations etc on 12 and 1min charts, 12Min price chart: Just look at the tails when the retracement started (low of today) HindSight Note: Also inside and outside bars at the low, Classic -Ta Minoo

Exercise of the brain is as important as exercise of the muscles. As we grow older, it's important to keep mentally alert. If you don't use it, you lose it! Below is a very private way to gauge your loss or non-loss of intelligence. Take the test presented here to determine if you're losing it or not. The spaces below are so you don't see the answers until you've made your answer. OK, relax, clear your mind and begin. OM ! = Open Mind 1. What do you put in a toaster? l l l l l l l l l l l l Answer: "bread." If you said "toast," give up now and do something else. Try not to hurt yourself. If you said, bread, go to Question 2. 2. Say "silk" five times. Now spell "silk." What do cows drink? l l l l l l l l l l l l Answer: Cows drink water. If you said "milk," don't attempt the next question. Your brain is over-stressed and may even overheat. Content yourself with reading a more appropriate literature such as Auto World. However, if you said "water," proceed to question 3. 3. If a red house is made from red bricks and a blue house is made from blue bricks and a pink house is made from pink bricks and a black house is made from black bricks, what is a green house made from? l l l l l l l l l l l l Answer: Greenhouses are made from glass. If you said "green bricks," why are you still reading these??? If you said "glass," go on to Question 4. 4. It's twenty years ago, and a plane is flying at 20,000 feet over Germany (If you will recall, Germany at the time was politically divided into West Germany and East Germany.) Anyway, during the flight, two engines fail. The pilot, realizing that the last remaining engine is also failing, decides on a crash landing procedure. Unfortunately the engine fails before he can do so and the plane fatally crashes smack in the middle of "no man's land" between East Germany and West Germany. Where would you bury the survivors? East Germany, West Germany, or no man's land"? l l l l l l l l l l l l Answer: You don't bury survivors. If you said ANYTHING else, you must stop. If you said, "You don't bury survivors," proceed to the next question. 5. Without using a calculator - You are driving a bus from London to Milford Haven in Wales. In London, 17 people get on the bus. In Reading, six people get off the bus and nine people get on. In Swindon, two people get off and four get on. In Cardiff, 11 people get off and 16 people get on. In Swansea, three people get off and five people get on. In Carmathen, six people get off and three get on. You then arrive at Milford Haven. What was the name of the bus driver? l l l l l l l l l l l l Answer: Oh, for crying out loud! It was YOU!! Now pass this along to all your friends and pray they do better than you. If you have such brain teasers than please post here Enjoy Minoo

Use brokers who provide 'Customers Segregated Accounts' with Banks and keep check on the credit rating of the particular bank This is what I do with the money market account to transfer deposit to brokers affiliated trading accounts I am not sure if this is adequate though.

Oops .... , Interesting what you are saying; But sorry way too deep for me.

The Article 'Reading the Music of the Market' by JC may help you to use TICKS differently http://www.smartmoney.com/options/index.cfm?story=sfo-music (click on the print button to view without the clutter) I use Tick chart in a similar manner JC explains with candle body and tail size relationships while crossing the Tick levels Tape mostly as order flow @ 'change or continuation' zones of S&R areas & trendlines on price chart Hope it Helps Minoo

Hi OAC / Steve Please refer to my chart, I have been a full time learner since the last three years and have successfully traded the eminis from last year (Oct 07) My setup has two 24" panels and I have attached the layout of one side, I normally trade the ES with the market internal setup, I am quite use to it by now. On the other panel I watch ER2, NQ & ES 2min charts (for emini price divergence, hedging on trend days or with swing positions, 2B Signals, Confluence of area trades, Gaps, Virgin POC, etc) I am going through a project to simplify my layout, want to cut down on the different trades I take and concentrate in quantity & reduce time of trading What I have learnt is once the price goes through the 200EMA and successfully test it and once 200EMA gains slope the prices will most likely continue to confluence of target areas (ie weekly monthly pivot yesterdays Hi Lo midpoint pivots etc) The orange line in the chart is Fib89 band equivalent to 200MA I am going to base more of my trades around this event and once successful retest occurs, to start scaling in as prices go through areas. I do not take full position on initial entry I scale into to make up the quantity (Still learning the multi contract trade management issues) The entry / exit signals, trailing stops all auto ploted on chart with pre-timely verbal alerts, green markers are entry and green cross are stops. My definition of intraday uptrend is continuous break of minor tops these are scaling levels for me. I use multiple of four to scale in and use lock in profit levels at each scale in point all taken with Tape Tick and Premium with OBV Hook as confirmation in trade continuation direction. Many thanks for the valuable input You all have made a good healthy experience here to learn, share and enjoy and hope this thread sensibly continues on. -Minoo

Hi Steve Below is an short blog (Oliver Velez) which discusses the Igniting and Ending WRB's from & to areas http://blog.vcmtrading.com/2007/10/20/wide-range-bars-and-what-they-reveal.aspx (podcast at left-end of the article) You described in your previous thread WRB which cuts through the areas (200 EMA) I would like to discuss which WRBs are likely to get retrace most; The one which cuts through the Area - or - the ones which gather-steam (chop) and lift off from areas (Igniting type) I absolutely benefited from your previous threads, you quite well demonstrated that Simple Solutions can be applied consistently & market rewards one to be consistent. Unfortunately most of us lack belief in such simple solutions. Please throw us some light on the Psychological aspect of trading Many Thanks Minoo

My definition of Trading Edge 'When one is consistent part of one's own Trading System' System are as good as the weakest link within it & most of the time I find myself as the weakest link The period I could maintain Edge is limited (< 40 minutes Ave) and hence split trading sessions 2 to 3 times a day to play with it

Steve many thanks for your postings I have been using 200MA & look out for confluences, price patterns formed when its crosses 200MA than anticipate Change or Continuation of direction with test of 200. One question I would like to ask Q) Do you give importance to the slope of 200MA ? Thanks Minoo

I try to start off the day with some positive thought I will see one of daily slide show ( 2 / 3 minutes) & some favorites ones http://greatday.com/cgi-bin/X02/jsprev.pl?07MRpn8 My meaning of meditation is 'Absence of Thoughts' (plural) Ta Minoo James if you like what they have to offer than there is also a link for the web-master, check it out.

http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/reuag/cambsuncc/cambsunc2007/7_Bertus-Hollan-Swidler.pdf

Hi Guys Thanks for your replies AT platform doesnot become active when the focus of the cursor is on the particular dom window (you have to click to make it active) During volatility there is obvious delay in making other DOM active and executing It doesnot execute orders at the down-stroke of the mouse click My understanding with the AT OCO (ie profit target and Stop Loss) functionality is the orders rests on the PC until the price is hit. AT does Not flatten multi-dom positions at a single click Blowfish to capitalize you need to be over the 'equivalent unit' I try to hedge if there is noticeable pre-activity in a given instrument, (by this time I would have establish which one is either leading or laggard in a given direction) Expanding on from the above example Say my first target area is nearing on the ES short established earlier From previous action I would have establish by now which of the NQ or ER2 are leading in the Up direction (Say for example sake, its ER2) To let work my swing short (ES) in direction of trend & give it more room at the approaching first target (maintaining wide stops, above previous area crossed) I would closely monitor action of ER2 as ES approaches target area, if ER2 shows the leading up tendency here than I will aggresively try to establish scalp long (stops are just below pivot low) If NQ quickly follows it will confirm a Spiky pullback & OBV-Hook, Here I may quickly scale into more on ER2 (ie off setting the equivalent unit to the upside) Position are managed to areas with Market Internals (Tape Tick & Premium) (Please refer to thread in Market X-Ray forum) If premium kicks in to the upside & $tick confirms than I will flaten my ES position If it kicks to the downside as anticipated than obvious of two actions either reverse or flatten my ER2 Scalp Long (There are two main parameters to consider here first self-indicator, than risk) even though I would be reversing into the trend I would have now doubled my risk as both instruments would be in uni direction (going short) quickly Scaling out here or trailing stop is I am striving to better. If you purely want to Hedge than best is to use the same Instrument If the leaders in opposite direction are either of ER2 or NQ than you observe their move and take bargain entry with laggard ES (It depends on your pre-plan or preparation) One needs fast reliable platform preferably on an dedicated machine Replied to this thread while watching the Olympics with kids

The above single-chart was not very clear so I have split them into two charts, the price side and $tick side -Ta Min

Annotated chart showing end of day action Attached Looking forward to some replies -Ta Minoo

To keep things simple I hedge using ES, ER2 or NQ Eminis only. Following on from the above example: Established Swing Short ES (ie minute charts Stops are wide) ES is approaching an minor Support or Resistance where I can tolerate 24% Fib retracement) before my swing target Here I would like to Hedge my ES Swing Short position by taking ER2 or NQ Scalp-Longs (ie Tick chart, stops are just below the support area low or pivot low) for the retracement / pullback In this manner I can use ER2 or NQ spiky nature safely too at near target areas (but thats another topic) I may hedge my full $ position or half my position depending on the TRIN component conformance to the downside or upside & Fib level where the retracement started from before my anticipated target (previous measured alternate, symmetry)

Hi Guys I would like to get some advise and have discussion on how to interpret the long tails and head wick in compare to the candle body on $TICK chart especially when the price chart nears Support or Resistance Area or a bar-pivot forms Long to me means atleast twice the size of the current visual body Long head wick I interpret them as Selling-Pressure Long tails I interpret them as Buying-Pressure I use the instrument OBV Ave-Length 3, to confirm the $Tick sudden move out of the level bands (I plot both OBV & Tick on 1 minute chart) $Tick levels I mark & observe are 0, + / - (300, 600, 800, 1000) I particularly like WRB crossing these levels with no or minor tail / wick at the crossing end. Initially I evaluate this occurence as an entry (OBV Confirming) & subsequently as continuation signal and may scale into the position or simply dilate my hedge / insurance I would like to know how you consider interpret $Tick action in compare to price / pivot at an area. If the divergence second leg establish new high or low level than do you still take it as divergence ? & fade it ? Area to me means Fib support / resistance or measured alternates, Daily Pivots (mid-Pivots), Globex Hi / Lo, Previous Day Hi / Lo, POC, etc Many Thanks Minoo

Does anyone know of a good platform to use for Day Hedging the eminis. Example: Say I am swing short the S&P and the eminis are coming to an minor support area, where I expect an bounce. I would like to establish scalp long on ER2 or NQ. The features I would like in the platform: -Tick-Align multiple doms and be able to see the net position. -A single button / click to go flat on all multi dom positions -A single click to reverse the Hedge (after the retracement or pullback positions which were short becomes long and positions which were long becomes short) -If possible pre-set Hedge Entry and execute it with an single click -Could individually maintain establish Hedge Instruments (ie once the position is profitably establish in an direction to target could remove / nullify the insurance / hedge) Many Thanks Minoo

Just for the Info A luggable with 3 LCDs http://www.acmeportable.com/3-LCD-Surround-System/ Good Specs Core2Quad, etc Enjoy Minoo