minoo

Both Articles on S&P 500 high are worth Reading; First one Dated 12 Aug 2020 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4368117-s-and-p-500-near-all-time-highs-this-time-be-different By D.M. Martins Research Previous Article Dated 30th Oct 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4300382-stocks-all-time-highs-why-matters Note: VIX is around 78.6% retracement from Feb 2020 Lows to 18 March Spike High Play it Safe & Secure Minoo

Quick Chart Update as ES Target gets Hit as shown above in previous threads but ViX still taking time ... Perhaps there is fair amount of early Precautionary-Puts due to current unrest situation in US Respectfully Flat on Swing Position around close on Wednesday & Preparing for the next Anticipated Volatility Note Much Gaps needs to be filled below on ES, but still keeping an Open Mind about the direction Play it Safe and Nimble, & Keep BIAS away Enjoy

Chart Update of the Small Companies Index, Which is not much paid attention to in this Tech and Pharma created Bounce Back and Hoping for Beyond Note the Divergence between Daily Prices and MACD in sub chart In current environment Investors may feel fear of missing out; Hesitation and Expectation both comes into play. Refer to PDF attached It will make you think and more often than not make you commit or omit untimely. As soon as any BIAS or false expectation builds up its time to lock in profits or exit or COP (Consciously Out Position) yourself out. Here is something I wrote some time back 4 Nov 2008 (You may have stood in the que to vote, Obama ah!) Enjoy Minoo Psychological_Factors_in_Shaping_Investor_Expectat.pdf

Chart Updated and Good Article on Forbes 3 Past Bear Markets To Study by Tom Aspray https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2020/03/21/3-past-bear-markets-to-study/#72d5d7f0737d If you look at the S&P targets than do not forget to check the opposite targets on VIX. Remember nothing goes up or down in a Straight Line Neither the Mouse to it Cheese nor Price to its Target. Direction most often continues than not, But this day trading Volatility may shake you off, whether you are the Wall Street Bear or Bull. Equally any BIAS could be dangerous to swing or day trade with, keep it simple & nimble. Locking in some profit or will get some protection (Puts or VIX) COP (Consciously Out Position) could be considered for next week. S&P RTH Open 8th May, 2908.00 Enjoy and Play it Safe

Ok here is my Easter Egg Chart for you All (Thanks to those who have repeatedly requested and prompted me to post my charts) I trust those who get the picture, will treasure it Forever Hint: Follow the Money or in this case rather, The Flow I have marked the vertical Red on ES and Green on VIX charts with dates View the Chaikin Sub Chart carefully to get the Picture I will leave it to your interpretation Keep it Simple, so when it matters you get it Traders, Positive Money Flow in VIX is not something to be complacent about; But only to act Mechanically if not Objectively The Gear has change and so should your Mentality. (Refer to my above 18th Dec Christmas Comments) Play it Safe and Secure, Amen. Enjoy Minoo

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” – Shelby Cullom Davis Bear market defined as 20% or more decline With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9, we are at the door step of a bear market Fear The Bear https://www.bmogam.com/us-en/advisors/news-and-insights/fear-the-bear/ By BMO Global Asset Management

A History Of Consecutive -3% Days (Decline) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327321-history-of-consecutiveminus-3-days by Ploutos CFA Summary The global spread of the coronavirus has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% on consecutive days. That is a fairly rare occurrence for markets with only 15 occurrences of consecutive down days of that magnitude since the Great Depression. When these types of consecutive down days occur outside of economic recessions, markets have tended to recover and move sharply higher over the next year. With the epidemic slipping towards a pandemic, the extent of economic damage remains unknown. Markets are selling rich valuations and pricing in negative outcomes. +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The Difference this time is, the decline has occured after consecutively achieving market highs With the last Bear Market in 2008 The sharp pullback which the News is crediting it to the Virus How do a Technician Interpret on the Chart without the news factor ? I would earmarked it as an first important indication (in built fear) occuring in the US President Election Year It would be better to review Gold & USD Chart for Safety and Fear What remains to be observed approaching US Presidential Election is; If the Gold Price Continue to Hold & remain Higher and Will USD perform Strong With Historical Low Interest Rates Gold is Good Asset to offset Risk. Interesting thing to observe will be Cryptos and related Stocks & Technology I think some exposure to Crypto is Quintessential (Around the Sell in May and Go Away Season of Correction) Awaiting some opportunity ........... ......... ....... ...... Play if Safe with Stop Loss but also some Protection in Place or Fear will provoke your primitive Mind and Take over. Enjoy Minoo

We all welcome the Santa Claus Rally with new Historical Highs I think it had an distinct Chinese theme to it rather than based on future Growth or Economy Will we have one more quarter of Good Earnings and than followed with fed & political meandering (Perhaps I am getting old and do not have any more appetite for Risk On trades, ES around 3200) Is it time to be cautious about US Indices, Going into the next year (I am thinking of Hedging or Cashing Portfolio which is currency based / dependent) Looking for BitCoin to Bottom (Risk On) and Gold to Out Perform (Investment Physical and LEAPS) VIX will become more of my instrument to swing trade as market tops out Initially this should provide time and hedge to the portfolio and pension, and opportunity to average into BTC and GC Seasonals Greetings to you All Enjoy Minoo

Chart Update 42 Minute for the Fib Pivots ES, VIX, USD & Crude Enjoy Minoo

Watch the Weekly VIX Are we at an Area which could make another Interim Pivot ??? Is the Syndrome of Sell in May & Go Away... . .. , to arrive Early this Year Or Pending the Trade Deal with China ?? With Brexit the British had to repeatedly walk away from their own bargained Deal Would the US Administration do the same or Up coming Election will make them Savvy Just Being Cautious and Locking in some Profit (ES 2869 ish) as the Market Gives but will also start Average into VIX Play it Safe, Minoo

I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise) Watch chaikin money flow into VIX

A record high for Facebook Inc. stock has reportedly pushed Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth beyond that of famed investor Warren Buffett. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-highs-for-facebook-stock-pushes-zuckerberg-past-buffett-2018-07-06

Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it. VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself. Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX. Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.> http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613 Enjoy Minoo

Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500 Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something. Watch the Below Video What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World The Question in my mind / journal has changed from Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent. Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as: Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out, Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise. Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ? Trade Well Minoo

Dear Fellow Traders Sorry I cannot reply to you all personally (no I do-not know much about trading bit coin, my teenage son does much more than I do) But what amazes me is some of you are already calling this the Bottom of Correction ES Opening Hour Low (2555.50) has not even past the first hour when I started to write this in between scaling out of my positions. Kindly observe the market and not trade against it, Be patience, let the emotions (ie Volatility) drain out of the markets I have COP myself out (Consciously Out Position) ie Will manage my existing positions and book profits but not take new positions This could be the completion of corrective action Or Just the start of several Corrective actions. Why try to Guess the Market action when its full of Panic & Emotions (ie High Volatility) I have now booked most of my profits in VIX as fear is shot up to extreme levels (ie momentum to downside and increase in Volatility). Time allowing look at some of the VIX option Prices & Implied Volatility note how quickly it shoots up too (But equally there could be days and weeks of stagnant or loss with VIX remaining complacent and down, of course if planned properly than one could call this time of accumulation (low implied volatility in VIX (LoL, it sounds funny) Just imagine if you would have put 10% of your profits to VIX Options and as it fell with crowd complacency. At new Indices highs you could plan t o Average into a good position and also could have booked some profit & Hedge your other remaining Bullish positions with holding VIX This could have allowed your Trading Self to buy into Crowds Complacency and also provided a Good Hedging Mechanism which helps inner trading self to root and remain balance (The Best I know for my trading Psyche to keep my primitive mind predominant auto nature Occupied and Satisfied) (Also as you hold VIX positions you are also not afraid of over night fall and if the market does not give you an chance to get out than at least you have VIX which would have rewarded you well and kept your inner traderself less fearful and balanced) By the time Complacency turns Suddenly into Fear you would be in Good Position to Capitalise both financially and remain balance at market extremes. Or How else do you make most of other peoples complacency and pent up fear to Balance your one inner Trading Self. For an Good Trader It needs to be an Zero Sum game not only financially but also Emotionally, If you do not plan to trade off your fear away than you will build up bigger position in it than you can handle, and more often than not, your primitive mind will kick in and take over all your discipline and written plans (If you know any such way to Trade Psychologically (fear-off) and remain Balance than you are more than welcome to contribute and humbly please enlighten us) Keep an Open Mind, so you allow your Psyche to remove any BIAS and trade other peoples fear and Bank your Financial and Mental Capital The market as always and forever is a willing teacher but our complacent or fearful nature both hinders these opportunities to what is on offer to learn, and capitalise the very thing we all poses through our primitive mind but our leaned mind trading plan fails to plan and capitalise on. “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!” You Simply have to plan for that irrational market in your trading plan, so as to not let your primitive mind take over your learned mind relegated trading plan Trade Well Keeping The BIAS and Fear away Minoo

These new Articles are in line with the thread theme 'Charting The Past Bear' https://www.thestreet.com/story/14342432/1/black-monday-flash-crash-emotional-investing.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellers 1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo? | Zero Hedge Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?" | Zero Hedge Option Expiry Week is normally Positive But remember its October-OE week without the 'Sell in May' effect Plus we are here with Fear of impending Market Correction (ie Market/Crowd will latch on any Bad news if its to Correct or Crash) Last remaining Good Big News on Tax Cuts are being Priced in (ie Market Consolidating and may initially Spike-Up) But What after Such Event ? Will it give you the chance to Lock in profit; And Will your Big Bullish Self allow to Book some Profits What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do? Time to at least have a Plan (to live / die by) Trend and Trade The Bull Carefully Much Good Trading Sense to you Folks Minoo Note: Keep an Eye on alternatives Small Companies, Base Metals, VIX & the all mighty US Dollar they may bring out 'The Market Bear'

Question Ask Was How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ? Attempted Answer: I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market -Locked in Profit to Get out (I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions) -To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in (As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures) -Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc) For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear) Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD) I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low. One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'. (Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???) As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly) ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself. Thanks for asking. All The Best Minoo Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'

Is the Bear waking up or the Bull trying to Push through make new Highs and Top Very concern with the Unusual Bank Holiday Activity in the Futures Market today Seeing such Volatility in futures market (ie Indices down, VIX & Gold up, Perhaps Bonds and USD may follow up soon) on Bank Holiday is much concerning There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down. So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside. Is this October 2017 time to prepare and Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term) or Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ? Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction; So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)? Many have said the Correction / Crash may come, more due to Geo-Political reason rather than economical. But also true is a substantial Correction is overdue Technically / Cyclically speaking Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ? Normally most are complacently (Low Historical VIX) indulgent and few hesitantly concerns become early Bears at such anticipated market Tops. More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution and also have reached time to establish Hedge to our Portfolio. Keeping an Open Mind but noting as well The Very Unusual Market movement this October Bank Holiday. (The Scent of The Bear ???) https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016-2/ Any Comments Welcome Regards Minoo

These three videos remain very popular ones from Jeff Quinto on CME site and many have requested me to re-post the expired links in the first thread of this Post Please check below the new links for the Videos The Main Page at CME where the Booklet & Videos are Jeff Quinto's Theory of Futures Trading - CME Group Three Futures Day Trading Tutorial Videos by Jeff Quinto & CMEGroup Essential straight talk by an Veteran Trader & Mentor Developing Your Trading Strategy Theory of futures trading and provide a guide that will help you get started. Developing Your Trading Strategy - CME Group Building Your Trading Plan Insight into the way professional traders set realistic goals and track performance. Building Your Trading Plan - CME Group The Importance of Simulated Trading Simulated trading can be the key to your trading success. The Importance Of Simulated Trading - CME Group Thanks for all the appreciation and keeping this Thread Alive Enjoy Minoo

Whenever I compromise my Trading Guidelines, I make it a point to spend some time for my Trading Psychology well being and study and revise some of my own guidelines & advise. Its a good thing to do, to remain rooted and progress further You do not let your slip-ups pass without bringing them to the forefront of your Conscious But objectively in the context of your own healing & betterment, Without the provocation of drama, self bashing, etc (make it a self-process instead) I found this old article title 'Pervasive Myths of Trading Psychology' again by Brett very essential. There is more to this article than the title suggests, it brings around multitude of Deliberate Awareness in one's consciousness TraderFeed: Three Pervasive Myths of Trading Psychology Thanks again Brett Enjoy Minoo

Will De Lucy of Amplify Trading, who were recently awarded by CFA posted this video on their FaceBook page and I found the very harsh truth a Professional Player (Terry Griffiths) had to endure very humbling. Absolutely worth listening to Terry's sincere comments. I post this to mark one of the best days of my trading life, yet I left so much on the table. Compromise my rule of trailing with stop loss and instead got out (early) on some chart depicted Target. Trade-Management rules Precedes Technical Analysis Enjoy Minoo

You cannot know about your self unless you bury your Ego and start being brutally honest with your conventional self first when learning The difference between the L-earner and Earner is the Big L, you cant get away or do away either with your losses or emotions. And they are related. So learn to handle them Humbly (with less reactions, emotions or drama) and as a learner you get plenty of chances to nail them. Dont go against the natural process which all human beings go through to learn new things or you will pay heavily not only with your time, effort and money but psychologically as well. The first thing you need to learn at this game is: How to Loose Humbly & Timely every time. If you cant face to learn How to Loose than sooner or later after much effort time and hard work, you will tend to become worse. Your mind will become a petri-dish for reenacting psychological problems (for denying the first truth of this loosing game) No amount of pretense, patronizing or self bashing with your self will do. Not many can plan to learn; How to Loose. This is un-natural and thought of as negative but you have to be purposeful and get pass the phase honestly. Bring yourself around to read the truth of your own doings; off your own defined system by your own self and hopefully what is & very strictly is truthfully jotted in your own journal. If you have not yet step upon this yet, you have not taken the first step to truly begin your learning or earning If the above is realized than Perhaps you bring yourself at the starting line for making a system for your honest self to learn to trade (to deal timely with your losses and knowing better your trader self) The journey of learning begins than . . . . .. . (For me before this things were realized by my conventional self, it was only a myriad of financial and emotional struggle . .. .) Once you learn to take losses mostly on time, that does not mean you have learned how to take your earned profits. I still have not learned how to exit at targets and may not ever. But I am glad to have trained to learn how to let my positions run with my trailing stops. One never knows how much the market wants to give or take back. I am happy to trail along & let the market make that decision, so one less decision every time I am engage in the market. Basically I want to master two things When to enter the market with stops and how to manage them. Thats it Folks. Keep it Simple and Short, so by the efforts of your own logic you keep thy stupid away. Enjoy Minoo

Thanks Zdo for your reply in the thread 'Flow Thyself' and diverting me to a more appropriate thread 'Know Thyself' I re-post the good link to read the quotes by Aldous Huxley In my opinion this page is absolutely worth reading Aldous Huxley | Know Thyself Please note: The trading systems which I initially created & tested were very different than the one's I started to achieve some success with after knowing more about Self & Psychology (S&P). Knowingly I started off devising the system which enabled me to adhere to my stop losses and accept changes contrary to my current BIAS. These two were major contentious issues with my Primitive Mind and had to make do with over simplified system till I was comfortable in taking losses timely and more consistently. Now I trade more with Preferences and Confluence derived from market internals and trade mostly in uni-direction off such conformance, so I mostly do not get caught on the wrong side of markets. Other most important thing I learned from the Market is to be Patience (while learning to trade and on simulation account one may foolishly indulge more than necessary and think they would not do the same in live markets) Hence the most valid position in my system is COP - Consciously Out Position. To me its much important to know when my system will not work with me and market 'both' than to have an overall profitable system for any given conditions in the market. I rather only employ my system when those probable conditions to profit in the markets are in Conformance. And practice discipline by staying out for the rest of the time. l still struggle at times to do this consistently. Pre-Opening Preparation and Patience are both necessary part of my thy trader system. Thanks Minoo

The most important part in my system is Thyself, but it could be the least efficient one too. I always trade the best when I meticulously do my per-opening preparation of myself and my defined system both. And make myself an efficient component of my defined system. Going through the snippets of Wisdom in the below website made me more rooted in my system and self. Enjoy Minoo Know Thyself | Man's Ancient Quest for Self Knowledge +------------Extracts from site-------------------------------+ Self-knowledge is all-encompassing. What is learned on one scale of experience can be applied to all scales. It is the highest form of knowledge, surpassing all other knowledge. Self-knowledge is also timeless, which means that what is gained in one era, benefits all subsequent generations Wherever and whenever the adage originated, Know Thyself was universally adopted and placed at the foundation of knowledge, the corner stone on which, the temples of philosophy should be erected. “The essence of knowledge is self-knowledge,” claimed the Greek philosopher Plato. Centuries before him, the Hindu Upanishads confirmed, “Enquiry into the truth of the Self is knowledge.” Leagues away and centuries later, the Persian poet Rumi wondered, “Who am I in the midst of all this thought traffic?” and the American poet Walt Whitman celebrated his Self, “a simple, separate person.”