minoo

Both Articles on S&P 500 high are worth Reading; First one Dated 12 Aug 2020 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4368117-s-and-p-500-near-all-time-highs-this-time-be-different By D.M. Martins Research Previous Article Dated 30th Oct 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4300382-stocks-all-time-highs-why-matters Note: VIX is around 78.6% retracement from Feb 2020 Lows to 18 March Spike High Play it Safe & Secure Minoo

Quick Chart Update as ES Target gets Hit as shown above in previous threads but ViX still taking time ... Perhaps there is fair amount of early Precautionary-Puts due to current unrest situation in US Respectfully Flat on Swing Position around close on Wednesday & Preparing for the next Anticipated Volatility Note Much Gaps needs to be filled below on ES, but still keeping an Open Mind about the direction Play it Safe and Nimble, & Keep BIAS away Enjoy

Chart Update of the Small Companies Index, Which is not much paid attention to in this Tech and Pharma created Bounce Back and Hoping for Beyond Note the Divergence between Daily Prices and MACD in sub chart In current environment Investors may feel fear of missing out; Hesitation and Expectation both comes into play. Refer to PDF attached It will make you think and more often than not make you commit or omit untimely. As soon as any BIAS or false expectation builds up its time to lock in profits or exit or COP (Consciously Out Position) yourself out. Here is something I wrote some time back 4 Nov 2008 (You may have stood in the que to vote, Obama ah!) Enjoy Minoo Psychological_Factors_in_Shaping_Investor_Expectat.pdf

Chart Updated and Good Article on Forbes 3 Past Bear Markets To Study by Tom Aspray https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2020/03/21/3-past-bear-markets-to-study/#72d5d7f0737d If you look at the S&P targets than do not forget to check the opposite targets on VIX. Remember nothing goes up or down in a Straight Line Neither the Mouse to it Cheese nor Price to its Target. Direction most often continues than not, But this day trading Volatility may shake you off, whether you are the Wall Street Bear or Bull. Equally any BIAS could be dangerous to swing or day trade with, keep it simple & nimble. Locking in some profit or will get some protection (Puts or VIX) COP (Consciously Out Position) could be considered for next week. S&P RTH Open 8th May, 2908.00 Enjoy and Play it Safe

Ok here is my Easter Egg Chart for you All (Thanks to those who have repeatedly requested and prompted me to post my charts) I trust those who get the picture, will treasure it Forever Hint: Follow the Money or in this case rather, The Flow I have marked the vertical Red on ES and Green on VIX charts with dates View the Chaikin Sub Chart carefully to get the Picture I will leave it to your interpretation Keep it Simple, so when it matters you get it Traders, Positive Money Flow in VIX is not something to be complacent about; But only to act Mechanically if not Objectively The Gear has change and so should your Mentality. (Refer to my above 18th Dec Christmas Comments) Play it Safe and Secure, Amen. Enjoy Minoo

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” – Shelby Cullom Davis Bear market defined as 20% or more decline With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9, we are at the door step of a bear market Fear The Bear https://www.bmogam.com/us-en/advisors/news-and-insights/fear-the-bear/ By BMO Global Asset Management

A History Of Consecutive -3% Days (Decline) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327321-history-of-consecutiveminus-3-days by Ploutos CFA Summary The global spread of the coronavirus has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% on consecutive days. That is a fairly rare occurrence for markets with only 15 occurrences of consecutive down days of that magnitude since the Great Depression. When these types of consecutive down days occur outside of economic recessions, markets have tended to recover and move sharply higher over the next year. With the epidemic slipping towards a pandemic, the extent of economic damage remains unknown. Markets are selling rich valuations and pricing in negative outcomes. +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The Difference this time is, the decline has occured after consecutively achieving market highs With the last Bear Market in 2008 The sharp pullback which the News is crediting it to the Virus How do a Technician Interpret on the Chart without the news factor ? I would earmarked it as an first important indication (in built fear) occuring in the US President Election Year It would be better to review Gold & USD Chart for Safety and Fear What remains to be observed approaching US Presidential Election is; If the Gold Price Continue to Hold & remain Higher and Will USD perform Strong With Historical Low Interest Rates Gold is Good Asset to offset Risk. Interesting thing to observe will be Cryptos and related Stocks & Technology I think some exposure to Crypto is Quintessential (Around the Sell in May and Go Away Season of Correction) Awaiting some opportunity ........... ......... ....... ...... Play if Safe with Stop Loss but also some Protection in Place or Fear will provoke your primitive Mind and Take over. Enjoy Minoo

We all welcome the Santa Claus Rally with new Historical Highs I think it had an distinct Chinese theme to it rather than based on future Growth or Economy Will we have one more quarter of Good Earnings and than followed with fed & political meandering (Perhaps I am getting old and do not have any more appetite for Risk On trades, ES around 3200) Is it time to be cautious about US Indices, Going into the next year (I am thinking of Hedging or Cashing Portfolio which is currency based / dependent) Looking for BitCoin to Bottom (Risk On) and Gold to Out Perform (Investment Physical and LEAPS) VIX will become more of my instrument to swing trade as market tops out Initially this should provide time and hedge to the portfolio and pension, and opportunity to average into BTC and GC Seasonals Greetings to you All Enjoy Minoo

Chart Update 42 Minute for the Fib Pivots ES, VIX, USD & Crude Enjoy Minoo

Watch the Weekly VIX Are we at an Area which could make another Interim Pivot ??? Is the Syndrome of Sell in May & Go Away... . .. , to arrive Early this Year Or Pending the Trade Deal with China ?? With Brexit the British had to repeatedly walk away from their own bargained Deal Would the US Administration do the same or Up coming Election will make them Savvy Just Being Cautious and Locking in some Profit (ES 2869 ish) as the Market Gives but will also start Average into VIX Play it Safe, Minoo

I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise) Watch chaikin money flow into VIX

A record high for Facebook Inc. stock has reportedly pushed Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth beyond that of famed investor Warren Buffett. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-highs-for-facebook-stock-pushes-zuckerberg-past-buffett-2018-07-06

Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it. VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself. Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX. Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.> http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613 Enjoy Minoo

Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500 Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something. Watch the Below Video What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World The Question in my mind / journal has changed from Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent. Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as: Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out, Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise. Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ? Trade Well Minoo