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Everything posted by Ronin
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Read the entire Thread. Very impressed with the two main contributors, keep up the good work ( my expectations were exceeded ): Here is my Trade for Monday, Buy STOP 1412.75 and Limit Buy 1400.25 ( In case the 1400 Level is Tested first during GLOBEX. If Filled at 1412.75, Stop Loss : 1363 If --------1400.25, ----------: 1363 Below March 14, 2007 Low SETUP: 1. Nine Points Bullish Hammer -30min 2. Banking Sector ( $BKX ) Weekly Bullish Hammer at RSI=30 Upcross and STO Upcross 3. SP500 Daily: Vol. Osc. at -84% Extreme Historical Reading 4. SP500 60min: Vol Osc. at -1% rising from -10% SP500 Weekly: Extreme High Volume Bullish Hammer ( shadow twice the body) 5. NASDAQ 60min: Series of six consecutive Lower Dojis and Vol. Osc at -15% Divergent to Lower Prices 6. Nasdaq Daily: Vol. Osc. at - 66% Extreme Reading 7. VIX Daily : Inside Day Bearish Doji and Crossdown of STOCH. 8. NYSE Advance/Decline Divergence
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Thursday,January 10 SELL Stop 118-12 Prev Low ZBH8 SOLD 118-12 Market Closed: 117-14 STOP 119-07 Wed HIGH SETUP: RSI ( 5 ) = 79 Wed, Jan 9 60min STO: Bearish Divergence Target: 117-10 Thursday Low Friday, Jan 11 - SHORT 118-12 Target Filled: +34 Tics GAIN = $1,062.50 Close Position, canceled STOP Loss New Balance: $25,328.50 ( second account )
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Here are the CLUES to the Bond Market reation to the FED Speak: 12:15 ET 10-Yr: unch..3.821%.. Stunted: "Bonds have been tucked into place as they await Bernanke & look out to the for sure 25 basis point cut, but temper expectations for 50 bps". "Trade has backed off a heightened 80% for a 50bps go, now looking closer to 65%. The market is working a fairly tight range but :haha:they will be looking to break out to the upside, but the weight of the months longs pocketing profits will drag. " "There has been stepped up talk of the Fed-head's talk lessening recession worries, but fact is, he will likely fall back on a "data dependant" course, leaving the market nothing to work with." Meaning: SELL The Upside reaction and lookout below ! 12:28 ET 10-Yr: Unch..3.821%.. "The prepared Bernanke comments appear to have been released early : as he doesn't step up to the crowd until 13 ET. The Fed chair notes that further policy easing may be necessary as the Fed responds to the economy. The December data (payroll, unemployment, ISM) were clearly disappointing as job deterioration raises the risk to consumer spending. That left more pronounced risks to the 2008 outlook which has worsened. Housing demand continues to worsened as the Fed continues to monitor inflation given price expectations. The note that the Fed feels at ease to ease the policy rates hardly leaves a clear message as to the size -- 25 bp or 50 bp " In other words, was released early to catch as many unprepared Longs as possible and clean out the accumulated STOP Losses Orders below the Key Pivot Supports. I have seen this happened many times before with the Payrolls Report and the Fed Reports and Speaks Events. Is like the Exchange never gives an explanation or excuse for the sloppy and gross inefficient released of the Market moving News Event while many thousands of real traders worldwide have their money on the market. Complete disregard for market participants and their lost funds ! And when you ask them directly, they behave like it was a big mistery, and they can't control it ! a display of complete arrogance and ignorance -( with millions of dollars of High Tech Equipment in their operations ).
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12:20pm SOLD ZBH8 at 118-16 Trade Setup: Bearish reaction to "Helicopter Ben" speak 3min Time Frame, 9 ticks down, closed near the bottom RSI ( 5 ) = 79 on prev day Bullish Reaction in Equities Target Filled: +22 Tics GAIN = $687.50 New Balance: $16,480.25 or 724% GAIN on Initial Starting Balance Out Flat
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Target FIlled: + 23 Pts GAIN $1,150 THAT 60min Vol Osc BUY Siganl worked like a 7' Basketball CHAMP ! Out Flat, going for Lunch break...
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9:30am Limit BUY 1405, Filled at 9:37am LONG 1405 Trade Setup: 60min MACD Bullish Divergence RSI ( 2 ) = 55 at Prev Close rising from 7 ovelsold BIG TIME ! 60min-SP500-Volume Osc. = - 21% rising and crossed the 20% BUY Signal
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10:40 am Long 1432.75 ESH8 Trade Setup: 1min TF Buy Signal and 5min Bullish Hammer NQ +18 and Internals above Neutral TICK : NEUTRAL Reaction to Housing Report: Positive Price Action: Second BAR after Bullish Hammer disqualified the Long Entry and gave a warning to exit trade ASAP. Low of bar pierced the Prev Bar Low ( Hammer). Exited with Loss of .25 = $12.50 Failure of Pivot Support followed- GOOD DESICION 12:45PM -LONG 1421 ( bad Entry) STOP 1416.50. Price Action: That test of 1416.75 almost took my STOP Loss ( very close) Trade Setup: don't recall, was having Lunch ( gut instincts ) lol Exit Filled +11 Pts GAIN ! ( THAT , was a High Risk Trade and it worked ! got to test my luck once in a while) New Balance: $ 14,642.75 Out FLAT
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7:39am ZBH8, Limit Order BUY 118.00 7:48am- No Fill 7:54am- Filled, LONG 118.00 Start 15 mins time limit... TARGET: 118.05 Filled at 8:43am +5 Tics GAIN = $156.25 New Balance: $ 14,092.75 Out Flat....
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03:10am 1426.75 Filled, Now LONG 1426.75 Canceld Limit BUY, 1431.50 Target Filled for +4.5 Pts GAIN New Balance: $13,936.50 , 596% GAIN on Starting Balance Out FLAT
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Limit Buy 1417.75 and BUY STOP 1426.75 Globex High at 10:40pm Monday Current price 1421.50 above the Pivot (1421.25) and above the POC -12:29am Tuesday Trade Setup: RSI ( 2) = 19 Rising Volume Osc. - 43 Rising from -61 60min MACD Bullish Divergence NO Major Report( SHORT squeeze eminent ) To be continue...
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No Brainer Trade, Friday, January 4th: SOLD 1451 Prev Low ESH8 Stop 1464.75 High of Prev Day Trade Setup: Thursday was Inside Day ( Daily ) and NR5 Volume Osc. Falling Bearish Wedge / Triangle Pattern- Daily Broken down and confirmed by NQ Weekly Trend: DOWN ( The Trend Is Your Friend ) SHORT 1451 Closed 1423 GAIN + 28 Pts = $1,400, Closed position, took profits. Reasons for not staying short: RSI (2) = 0.83 Very Berish ( Due for a pullback ) TRIN: Over 1.0 for 4 consecutive days VIX: Above 50 MA New Balance: $ 13,711.50 What a way to start the year ! Happy new year to all the Bulls, lol
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Thursday Dec 27, 2007 ZBH8 - 30 yr T-Bonds BUY STOP 114-22 Filled, Long 114-22 ( High of Day ) Trade Setup: Inside Day Daily RSI(5) = 55 60min STO , BULLISH Friday Dec 28. 2007 : Long 114-22 Closed 115-22 Exit Filled 115-22, +32 Tics GAIN = $1,000 New Balance: $23,078.50 ( second account ) What a way to finish the Year ! :beer:
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BUY STOP Filled: LOSS -1 Pt
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Limit SELL 1509.25 working during GLOBEX G.T.C. BUY Stop Loss: 1510.25 Trade Setup: 60min MACD Bearish Divergence.
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Walter, The Volume Osc. crossed UP the 20% Threshold few days back giving a BUY Signal, but it does not give you the Entry price. And that makes sometimes a huge difference, but that is not your question. I believe you need to know which one has more priority. The Osc. is been used for gaging the likelihood of Trend continuation while the NQ helps in confirming the direction of the Intraday ( 5min ) moves. When looking at the price moves of the NQ vs. ES you will find that NQ leads the way about aprox. 70% of the time. When it is not doing so then, I will consider it a very risky trade. Today the Internals started very week and the NQ started in Neutral Mode or Bias. I was very busy adjusting my chart parameters on this new terminal ( belonging to my relative, my other comp is under repair) so I missed the first BUY Signal at about 9:45am, 5min Bullish Hammer Candle. So, to answer your question, yes I do follow both but at different times and not with the same priorities.
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Long ESH8 1502, Target Filled: 1505.25 for + 3.25 Pts GAIN Trade Setup: NQ Price action and VoL. Osc. +45 New Balance: $12,311.50 Out Flat.
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STOP Loss 114-09 Filled, Loss - 5 tics = - $156.25 Out Flat with a LOSS New Balance: $12,149
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Order on the Open GLOBEX Wed 12-26 GTC Buy STOP 114-14 ZBH8, 30yr T-Bonds STOP 114-09, Risk= 5 tics Trade Setup: 60min MACD Bullish Divergence NR 23 and BEARISH MACD 60min-Divergence on ESH8
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Must post this for the benefit of others to avoid. Lost a ton of critical data, personal files, and notes about trading: My computer went CAPUT FUBAR: Will not go into Safe Mode or Last Good Configuration Will only go into F10 Setup Symptoms: Turns On then WINDOWS Logo, followed by a quick blue flash on the top quarter of screen, then black screen only. When F8 is pressed, it will go to the Options Menu, but will not go into Windows Desktop after Last Config. is selected. Will not go into Safe Mode either. Conditions before problem: Windows working and safe mode working, No new programs loaded or downloaded. No Viruses or Trojans found after 4 days of fighting them to death. No new devices installed. Recovery CD Message: “These system recovery CDs do not support this Compaq PC model" press any key to continue. Great way to end the year.
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ESH8 - Trade Setup: 1. N R 9 and Inside Day 2. Volume Osc.: +30% from -27% Bullish Cross UP of 20% Signal Line 3. RSI ( 2 ) : 70 UP from 28 Long 1475 Prev HIGH, Closed 1498, Gain = $1,150 Exit position on Close, take profits on Second Account, New Balance: $22,478.50
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Almost forgot to post this one, busy troubleshooting a Trojan Horse named "SmitFraud", finally killed the bastard: SOLD ZBH8 , 116-02 on a separate Account (no day trading there) Prev Balance: $20,266 Start Date: March 2nd, 2007. Start Balance: $2K. About five Drawdowns since start date. STOP Loss: 117-01 Thursday's High, moved stop down during Friday's session. Trade Setup: 1. 60min STO: 85 / 87 K/D and Downcross of Daily STO ( Propriatery Settings) 2. Equities Strong Reversal UP 3. 30min , 7tics Bearish Candle Inverted Hammer at 12:50pm,Thursday, Dec-20 Trade Rules: Breakout of Prev Day Low or High, target first $1k gain. Ideal Setup on NR7, Inside Days, Daily. Other conditions must be meet to execute the trade. AND Gate Logic Exit on Friday's close: 115-00 for 34 Tics GAIN = $1,062.50 Close Position Take Profits, New Balance( 2nd Acct) : $ $21,328.50 Till Next Year, See you at the other side of the Trade !
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Here is another one: 1:23pm - Limit BUY ZBH8 115-08 Filled Trade Setup: 30min Bullish Hammer Candle , 11 Tics Range Volume 1.6K ( 5min ) Price Action: Retracement to 115-05 ( 3 tics below my Long Entry ), Start 10mins timing Rule ( only applies when price is near or testing the L / S Entry). Another one of my pullback rules, sorry. Ten minunes later price is near my entry. Exit 115-07 is executed with FULL confidence, that I'm not missing anything, get the hell out ! Loss 1 Tick = $31.25 Loss ! :applaud: We found a genuine Loss ! But, what is important is : What did the market do after my exit? IT DROPED DAMM GOOD DECISION !
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Don't go away, here another Trade with strict Timing rules: 1:57pm Long 1489.75 STOP 1489 Risk only .75 ( all my breakout trades require very Low Risk, sorry for rules Mr. Lurker ) Trade Setup: Breakout Trade with 5mins time limit and very tight stop loss.Either works or it doesn't. 1:58 , 5min time limit starts :59pm- Ask 40 Bid 1 5 - 3 4 - 1 6 - 1 47 - 2 18 - 4 27 - 1 4 - -2 100 -- 6 Which way is going to go, very odvious... Target Filled 1491.50 + 1.75 pts GAIN , Sorry NO Loss this time, maybe next time, just keep looking. lol Looks like a lot of money on the table, it really hurts !
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Sherry picking the Signals. Paid my dues, long time ago. Here is one: 12:05pm Long 1488.50 Trade Setup: O.R. Bounce, 10min Bullish Bar and NQ +33 Target was 1491.50, 25mins later Out Flat 1489.50 +1 Pt ( Loss of potential profits) Exit early due to no follow thru and 15min Time Limit exceeded. This trade was very boring in my book to post, but will look for a loss next time. Sorry my time limit rules do not allow losses.Better yet don't worry about your doubts it will blind you. Focus on the good entries and emulate SUCCESS ! lol
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Left a lot of money on the table ! :doh: But NO Regrets " Of all the girls I loved before...." ( whistling )