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zdo

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by zdo

  1. Tradewinds, ...tighten up your helmet straps...because "Victory destroys knowledge." DanJohn
  2. This not just another release sponsored by… no one dared be associated… errata: a last minute sponsor showed up! This post sponsored by youhadtoknowzdowouldpostthissht.org 25 Signs That The Nazification Of America Is Almost Complete - BlackListedNews.com [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2tC-npvuGk&feature=player_embedded]Judge Napolitano: Final Word on the Last Episode of Freedom Watch [14-Feb-12 © FoxBusiness] - YouTube[/ame]
  3. Have only skimmed a couple pages of the thread so maybe someone already made similar comments. God I hope so… The close of a bar is meaningless AND The close of a bar is meaningful It’s individual representational system dependent! But herein we have a bunch of ‘thoughts’ posted without much grounding in the individual’s perceptual framework behind it – and if there are ~20 posters and 1000 readers then, by golly, there are 1020 different perceptual frameworks, yet more than half the posts ignore or assume that everyone just automatically understands or even worse, assume that those differences don’t matter, or even more worser, assume that those differences don’t even exist! – Now, that is meaningless. Peeps, if we continue to be so ‘bias’ blind and so blatantly non-specific, TL will become just a mini ET… Then we have a bunch of impressions of the value of the close in systems and coding, again and similarily, without much grounding in the underlying systems. The close of a bar, on ANY timeframe or bar type does remain what it is at base – just another price point. But, the ‘close’ is not useless in a system that needs discreet, scheduled ‘snap-shot’ measurements instead of continuous stream. Coded systems ‘prefer’ those discreet, scheduled ‘snap-shot’ measurements, so continuing with that thinking, the ‘close’ is not meaningless or useless in a system where the close can somehow acceptably proxy for or complete the effects/outcomes of the whole previous period that just ‘closed’. Conversely, the close is meaningless or at least no more meaningful than any other price print if other intrabar data points are actionable in the system. All the bar types, doms, time and sales, profile ‘distributions’ are our own best personal representational systems for the ‘auctions’. Ie the map is not the thing mapped! Hopefully most of the thousand readers are doing serious inner work aligning their representational system to their own perceptual type/profile, instead of assuming, the standard consensus charting methods, the bars, etc. really are the market… Hopefully, we haven’t influenced anyone to come to discount the close if it actually should be ‘meaningful’ in their world … And vv ...Hopefully, we haven’t influenced anyone to come to represent the close as something more than it really is if it should be just another price print in their world. … either of those would be worse than meaningless and useless…
  4. .. again, Training to literally not experience those four is quite different from training to cope with them when they come up. Which way are you talking about? ... also, would you please refer me to a psycho-analyst in the industry? ... not being critical... and if you just want to keep the topic casual just don't reply ... I'll understand.
  5. A Warning Sign For The World - BlackListedNews.com
  6. TheNegotiator, These are all ‘effortless high performance worker’ traits… yet I meet so many good traders who tolerate no talk of parallels of physical skills and athletics with trading … we even have a few on this board. What’s up with that ??? re: “…I believe this is a great way in which to practise trading.” What do you mean by ‘practice’ trading? Training to literally not experience those four is quite different from training to cope with them when they come up. Which way are you talking about? Also, negoc8r, I’ve not seen ANY psycho-analysis on this board. Can you explain for me or give an example of what you mean by “psycho-analysis of traders these days” Many thanks. I bring these questions because - The only truly effective and for sure consistent, way I have found to allay Fear is with proper sizing for my capitalization (in both excursion (/trend) and reversion methods, btw). I;ve found that all the mental trickery temptations that would keep me within 'tolerable' levels of Fear damage my bottom line too much. I have not alleviated Surprise at all and as long as I’m still initiating any ‘leader’ trades (which about 20% of my trades are) I don’t see my ‘surprises’ ever going away. I don’t see my ‘surprises’ ever going away for the ~80% of the following / reacting / responding to market circumstances trades either. Also, for some methods, I consciously and unconsciously ‘project’ two or three possible maps for a time period and am continually Surprised that none of them were accurate, etc… I can see where No Hesitation is definitely apt to Samurai level sword fighting, but quite often, Hesitation puts me into a better position than I would have had I slashed on in to the position…a related example - for certain situations in tennis, they teach you to commit and ‘make a move’ one way or the other… yet in those same situations often the appropriate ‘move’ is to Hesitate / ‘hold the center’ and force the onus of precision onto the opponent, etc. Experiencing palatable Doubt during ~ 30% of my trades has not kept me from surviving and thriving in this game... were the samuria dealing with morphic emotional fields of crowds? etc.
  7. Short answer - No. Long answer - No. ...minimum character count for a post reached yet?
  8. :haha: We should note for the readers that Mitsubishi is not typical. His trading is to the tick AND to the second
  9. After that last post I have a… Curiosity Poll: Is this thread a call to action?
  10. This post brought to you by the truth teams and pacs http://cryptogon.com/?p=27533 charles hugh smith-It's Not Just Gasoline Consumption That's Tanking, It's All Energy ...just my opinion here, but regardless of energy usage worldwide the Dow could ‘easily’ go on to and through 15,000 …’cause if it were an actual bull market it should now be approaching 30,000 in adjusted dollars… /// ...first time this type of content has ever shown up anywhere… Inevitable US, UK, Japan, Euro Downgrades Lead To Further Currency Debasement | ZeroHedge /// 20 Things We Can Learn About The Future Of America From The Death Of Detroit - BlackListedNews.com …stupid lists… /// After this one it's doubtful AR will ever collect payment from the sponsor :doh: 3-minute video: Obama rejects dogmatic, narrow view of the Jedi; chooses war - Washington's Blog
  11. ... but, dang it, the greeks are not olive colored! :razz: Greek skin color is in the middle plus they stay tanned from exposure to the multicolored Sun(s)… uh oh, I forgot ‘skin’ color talk is taboo…on one side, it still triggers too many associations and fears of associations… in another way, mention of skin color still triggers that temptation to twistmorph comments into ‘racist’ when they really aren’t… like shapeshifting my posts into comments about peoples’ various skin colors instead of ‘values’ and character in general… oh wait, that last way is still PC… fire away! Back on topic… what color is it when, not if, gereece defaults ? (…as if they haven’t already defaulted.... Pictures From A Greek Soup Kitchen | ZeroHedge (…and as if this is really is just about Greece … "Spain Is Fine" | ZeroHedge )
  12. Happy Vowlentine's Day, Sweetheart The Daily Bell - Is Greece a Sacrifice or the Shape of Things to Come?
  13. To me, the parallel annoucements coming out of DC sound something like http://www.mimiarnold.cum/2012/02/13/263aa41/obama-administration-we-owe-the.html] Federali Tribe: We owe the world nearly $100 gazillion, and our republicans are to blame - DC.cum-[/color] [/url ... I was being careful what I asked for – traditional am indian ‘chiefs’ whose day to day decisions actually incorporated values that really included an act’s impact on the grandchildren / future generations --- really! ... ie Cypress is just an equivalent ‘white’ guy, disguised in red skin instead of black. His ‘educational’ track is not too dissimilar from BHO’s… etc… though I doubt his political leanings are anywhere near as statist and anti – capitalistist, etc as boy hussein’s. ... and he is not nearly the discredit to am indians as O is to am blacks
  14. Similar threads... hey, at least it goes to OP more than my last post charles hugh smith-The First Dominoes: Greece, Reality, and Cascading Default
  15. zdo

    I'm Done...

    Markl67, in case you haven't found a job after all these years... TSA Help Wanted - hilarious satire animation about TSA perverts, Janet Napolitano and the Bill of Rights - NaturalNews.tv (... it must be a Very Important Job... else why USA censorship on the rise as YouTube censors video critical of government; Fox News pulls Judge Napolitano's Freedom Watch ? )
  16. “It’s not here… it’s over there” ..or is it? Greece, on the street, … This Is What An Economic Depression Looks Like In The 21st Century - BlackListedNews.com not mentioned therein (not really mentioned anywhere much these days) but… the banksters' dreaded ‘deflation’ can only be postponed for but so long… Barack Obama: Let’s Steal 150 Million Dollars An Hour From Our Children :haha: Maybe we should consider making some real history and elect an old wise american indian chief as president instead of a white guy (disguised in black skin) ... I know, fat chance...
  17. WWWW, bump ie forget all the "I am told" s, the vids, x atr’s, etc... especially if they are not proven stop strategies for the exact same system you are using (or if ?? they are the supposedly credible professional trading tutor’s compensations to take the “anxiety” out of their own trading instead of what is really best for their system) ie dig, iterate, and test out the system specific zones (sorry, no Black and White) that work for your own edge(s), and stay within those zones… and just be with the “anxiety” and dis comfort, instead of finding ways to prevent it. (...I’m not in full understanding of your system or the conditions under which you take signals, etc. … also without getting into the 'quality' of your channel... plus, my concepts of 'noise' are too out there for this discussion, but 'noise' is related... so take the following with a grain of salt ) --- anyways, from what I’ve projected :meguessing: about your system, I would suggest you test almost never placing a stop inside the channel - and Stop A is definitely inside the 'channel' … (ultimately it probably won’t,) but hth
  18. Live accounts are the only way to test the strategy. If it’s not worth live forward testing, it’s not worth testing at all… sim puts all (except for a tiny few) into a false area of ‘tolerable conflict’ and then when they go live, they are immediately forced out of that false area of tolerable conflict. All that sim ‘practice’/ ‘fun’ did help, but realistically so marginally that it nets out to a big waste of time… all the while, these sims are building an internal neural 'network' that makes it progressively less and less likely you will be able to innovate new edges...it's unbelievable the number of developing traders I've watched 'fun' stroke themselves out of this business... More cautions: The majority in a poll will vote sim sim (… and, while it’s not a ‘causal’ relationship… ) The majority of traders are also losers. Said another way, the ‘many’ / the industry thinks that sim is great for the 'many'… when it’s really only great for a tiny few developing traders and is only truly useful practice for a tiny portion of the universe of systems... it's unbelievable the number of developing traders I've watched fun stroke themselves out of the business... ...yes, mohsinqureshii, I am trying to push buttons... not necessarily yours though... I chose long ago to internally question and challenge ANYTHING the majority believes and does … which way will you go ? All the best, zdo
  19. us fkn btchz go all adhomino… ... the mind you brought to posting is not the mind that... btw…when it comes to understanding certain ___cepts (like “archetypes”), words on a page cannot convey the more in-depth nuance and meanings. Sustained work with them can actually be a more direct path than is a “direct "bottom line" path” … just sayin’…
  20. “Hard” stop is now just inside the black on this position, but if I’m in front to the screen should I ever let it get near that ? No. An instance of same, contradiction-'free', principle of the OP question still in action... whether it's to stop a loss or 'keep' a profit, underlying system specific application of this type of 'contradiction' is to protect capital … ideal holding period for this particular position is until (centered around) noonish 2/15 and if I am present and in synch I should be able to cover it low and re- sell higher in the ‘channel’ at least couple times ( and also still stay prepared to sell into it “screaming upward” at some point … that's what I 'wanted' it to do in the first place... how come the market so rarely does what I 'desire' it to do ?? :missy: ) Have a great weekend all.
  21. a smattering of moral hazards from here and there… sponsored in part by contributions from the ______________ Foundation… 10 Things That Every American Should Know About The Federal Reserve - BlackListedNews.com … it doesn’t really matter what the ‘leaders’ of Greece, etc. decide or agree to if even 10% of the populace decides to ‘default’ … same here in the US… Wonder how the ‘powers that be’ who are encouraging these behaviors Dick Bove On The Foreclosure Settlement: There Is No Sanctity Of Contracts; Only Fools Meet Their Financial Commitments | ZeroHedge will act when the moral hazards rules get extended by the peeps to not bothering to pay their taxes either?... charles hugh smith-Self-Interest and the Pathology of Power: the Corruption of America Part 2
  22. No, everyone is now a miner (... almost - a few still are dentists… ) we are digging in the emotional darkness and the minds that entered the mines are not the minds that extract from the mines
  23. I hesitate to say anything to avoid diluting any of these excellent recent posts… but, even though I would love to just reify them, we have to move on anyway… Predictor re “I think you're over playing the "system specific" recording” Hell yeh! It would suit me just fine to stop ‘overplaying’ it - if this community as a whole would stop ‘underplaying’ by continuing to spit out so many non system specific ‘truism’ posts with such regularity … BlueHorseShoe re “”would you say that there are no 'universal laws' that are applicable across all strategies?” I used to have more clear ‘Rules of thumb’ about where to begin finding the stop loss zone for a system than I do now. It’s definitely not a single variable ‘problem’. Predictor stated “Now, in general, mean reversion systems will do better without stops but momentum systems can in some cases benefit from stops” and I know what he’s getting at – but at the same time, the ‘reversion’ systems I use that involve channels/envelopes do much better with loose stop zones based on the angles of the channels, etc. than they do with no stops at all … another generality that’s became less than useless in my world. Some other examples --- Optimal stop zones for breakout systems really vary all over the board, so with any given system it’s probably best to test the whole universe of stop strategies with each system and include favorable excursion stats in the mix too. re excursion systems, I use three different ones and the stop strategies are widely, wildly disparate… no generalities would ever apply. Swing type systems also end up with huge diversity in optimal stop placements – and vary primarily by how profitable exits are accomplished. PriceAction type stops are a good starting place for testing ‘swing’ systems, but it would be a mistake to restrict one’s research to just that… Good ‘fake’ trend following systems, in my experience, to well with trailing stops… but my entries into these systems are heavily filtered by MarketTyping. True trend systems stop out at the point the trend really is negated for a trader (and reverse), this one is about as close to a ‘law’ as I can get. But, even here, the method for determining trend / entry methods creates variance in whether price based parameters (pivots, SR, etc) or stats should be used for determining if trend has failed… Bottom line point to be made with "it's System Specific" is test test test to find zones for your odds for each system... and use those zones, not points... it's easier and more real to develop expertise working with a zone / range of options than it is with 'tight' limited spots... ... the only 'universal law' I can ever think of is never let a position get anywhere close to a catastrophic loss. Saying this from other perspectives = pre define your risk (zones) and accept losses ie live to get different results on another day, etc = ie protect your capital. That’s best accomplished by capitalization, then fine tuned sizing, then finally loss exit zones (or points) Getting back to the OP question… Let’s say I’m rolling into a mid-sized short position in the indexes through today and tomorrow’s sessions (ie centered around today’s close), regardless of whether price is going up or down. I know by the stats what my zone for stops should be, but in the ideal I would be seeing the market scream upwards past where I would be getting stopped out of the initial loads if I use the stats. Why get stopped out if I’m still adding more shorts? So my ‘hard stops’ are deferred and arrayed far above the price action AND I would not let them get hit if I could possibly help it. My thinking - in this (‘bear’ :tongue in cheek: ) market, the chance of a purple swan event where the price separates up from current levels and ‘never’ oscillates back down to where I could get out at a normal loss are low… it’s a risk I’m willing to take… not comfortable at all with this little campaign, but I do know my odds, how much heat I can stand, and how little the absolute worst result could hurt… an adequate and current example of how those two OP conditions can be applied simultaneously without discrepancy.
  24. mits, it wouldn’t take every single American . Essentially it would only take somewhere in the neighborhood of 3% of Americans to “BOMBARD the government” effectively… but for now .001% would actually participate… “culture-washed” PS MadMarketScientist did you get caught up on your posting yet? :haha: Spammer :rofl:
  25. Tams, You actually tried to read this sht? Don't you have enough grief, anger, and fear in your life already? and when is now a good time to call Rande? You've been referred by Mits... :spam:
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