zdo

Once In A Lifetime Live version: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-io-kZKl_BI]TALKING HEADS once in a lifetime - YouTube[/ame] And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack And you may find yourself in another part of the world And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife And you may ask yourself-Well...How did I get here? Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/after the money's gone Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground. And you may ask yourself How do I work this? And you may ask yourself Where is that large automobile? And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful house! And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful wife! Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/after the money's gone Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground. Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Water dissolving...and water removing There is water at the bottom of the ocean Carry the water at the bottom of the ocean Remove the water at the bottom of the ocean! Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/in the silent water Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground. Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/after the money's gone Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground. And you may ask yourself What is that beautiful house? And you may ask yourself Where does that highway go? And you may ask yourself Am I right?...Am I wrong? And you may tell yourself MY GOD!...WHAT HAVE I DONE? Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/in the silent water Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground. Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down Letting the days go by/water flowing underground Into the blue again/after the money's gone Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground. Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was... Composed by the Talking Heads (and Brian Eno)

more nit picking... I was already off topic from the OP / joining in the bashing with the statement "In true trend following, outliers ARE the edge" Our expansion into the MM aspects(compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding) is even further off topic Even if he covers MM in everything he releases, if Covel were reading this thread, he might bristle – understandably Trading With Trend the ‘many ways’ to exploit trends is Trading with the trend… ie Trading utilizing the trend it’s basically Trading (with whatever means puts you in what most likely is the right direction) ie the emphasis is on the ‘Trading” part… on trading decisions./ whatever to exploit the “many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve”… “scaling in out”… etc, etc the 10000 ways... True Trend Trading in true trend trading, the “trading” part of the ‘sentence’ has virtually no emphasis it’s basically True Trend Trading There are no “many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve” in True Trend Trading. There is no requirement to enhance, support, etc true trend trading with leveraging, compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding, scaling, SUIYA, I’m not criticizing your thoughts about Trading with Trend. I’m just saying for those readers who might be interested in Covel – everything after post 7 in this thread is seriously off topic and then quickly careens into mishing up / lack of differentiation between Trading With Trend and True Trend Trading... enough for me to nitpick for the noobs' sake. Why am I pounding on this distinction? True Trend Trading is the most recessive, undeveloped aspect of my trading. I am a Trading With Trend trader through and through… so … all the while I just ‘believed’ in true trend trading (before M. Covel was even out of high school, btw) My beliefs were supported by a great ride in the indexes through the nineties. But - belief is what you do when you don’t know. It took building cash / physical positions in the metals in the late nineties and watching them ‘outlier’ for me to know the difference between True Trend Trading and Trading With Trend … All the best

Good grief how ‘bout ? Unless you understand structure, actions, time, and relations You Understand NOTHING :missy:

This release brought to you by your own complacency… we're safe today but tomorrow could be a disaster - or given medium-term risk outlooks, short-term traders are the most complacent they have ever been. 3 Charts On Not Buying The 'Global Recovery' Risk Rally | ZeroHedge Why China Is Dumping The Dollar - And Why You Should Read Up on the Weimar Republic | ZeroHedge /// mploemint "How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment?" The answer is simple Jon, and is another one we provided a month ago - basically the US is now effectively "printing" jobs by releasing more and more seasonally adjusted payrolls into the open, which however pay progressively less and less (see A "Quality Assessment" Of US Jobs Reveals The Ugliest Picture Yet). After all, what the media always forgets is that there is a quantity and quality component to jobs. The only one that matters in an election year, however, is the former. Jon Hilsenrath Is Scratching His (And The NY Fed's) Head Over The Job Number Discrepancy And Okun's Law | ZeroHedge /// This is far far too deep into the post… if you read nothing else… charles hugh smith-Money from Nothing: A Primer on Fake Wealth Creation and its Implications (Part 1) /// …”And before you forget, the president can now detain you for getting too close to his front yard, order your assassination if he considers you a threat and lock you away for life with no charge if you’re alleged to be a terrorist. You, on the other hand, can’t yell obscenities at Newt Gingrich without risking arrest.” … ... a mess only a teeny tiny few will able to 'trade' your way out of... /// I should disclose – I’ve been biased since before agent orange… Monsanto's Roundup threatens stability of global food supply

Precisely... re: Yes – for those who really thrive. Actually, due to the high loss counts, optimal sizing is much more important in real trend trading than “compounding” However, didn’t get into that because across time I’ve found it best during development not to co-mingle edge work with mm work … best to limit the ‘edge’ concept to the systemic – entries and exits... then, post edge establishment, to layer money management models (sizing, compounding, etc.) onto the strong ‘edge’ footing . re Real trend trading, sans any mm ‘tricks’, is an edge – provided the trader has enough staying power and a long enough life to wait for the outliers… Compounding into a negative edge – now, that would be ‘invariably dismal’ :doh:…. using sizing (and compounding, mm in general) to compensate for marginal edge(s) takes a very specific and extremely rare type of mentality --- not recommended for ‘normals’ and noobs at all… ...nitpickin... to "do no harm"...

:more hijacking and offtopic from OP: re Covel Want to save some time and money? Would you like me to teach you EVERYTHING you need to learn from all of Covel’s published works? Here it is - In true trend trading, outliers ARE the edge. ie a ‘real’ trend trader is not trying to improve entries, is not trying to prevent or diminish losses… he or she is simply entering positions with the trend and waiting for outlier moves - period… EVERYTHING else Covel (or anyone else) says about real trend trading is superfluous (however inspirational, motivational, etc it may otherwise be)… no need to spend time and money on his promotions, books, and courses

Forex Traders can still find opportunities. Can you? Let's pretend all is well Let’s pretend… charles hugh smith-Our "Let's Pretend" Economy: Let's Pretend "Job Growth Is Best Since 2006" :haha:and...Let’s pretend you’re interested :rofl:

Results of the survey are in! Here are the stats for the TL sample (for those who are face reading impaired, that was a :wink; ) 73,978 Do not use Elliott Wave 4 Use Elliott Wave in a supplementary, confirmational, etc. role 0 Use Elliott Wave exclusively "Nothing comes to a standstill sooner than movements that are brought about by so many people" Arnold Schoenberg For the 4 Which Method Can Traders Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count? | Elliott Wave International | Safehaven.com

I flipped out because this kind of conventional, broker/vendor bullsquat pabulum hurts far more noobs than it helps … seriously, it was not a personal attack on mohsinqureshii at all. Thanks, SIUYA for working and improving on them instead of just slamming... … these RULES were most likely originally compiled by someone who had just turned profitable in the last few months and who didn’t personally see the need for all 38 of “Gann’s” (really his?) RULES. now... Do I know jack? No, I do not know jack. Do I know Jack? I do and he told me that within a couple of years after publishing his ‘how I did it’ autobiography that he wished he could retract almost all of it … that what he originally thought were the reasons he succeeded turned out to be erroneous attributions! “Victory destroys knowledge” DanJohn "Find your own way" zdo

MUST ??????????? RULE # 1:USE MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE ????????? At first glance this seems like ok advice…Upon pondering though you wonder why they didn’t say – if you are undercapitalized, only use money you can afford to lose.. but then is it ok to lose it if you are well capitalized? Hell no! Becomes a short… wacky…truism. No successful trader I’ve ever known or was privy to the ‘real story’ could afford to lose their capital… This rule would hold more water if it were put into terms of how much of your starting capital can you “afford” to lose RULE # 2: KNOW YOURSELF These rules are no doubt coming from an accepted source – so it is no doubt good advice – like a dam Temazepam prescription! You do not need an objective temperament, you can not actually “control” your emotions... successful traders are not necessarily unemotional about their positions…. a “hard nosed type of attitude” is not a requisite ... More importantly - None of these things mentioned here are central to what Know Yourself really is... RULE # 3: START SMALL Seems like good general advice… but it’s better to start at your individually appropriate scale… which varies considerably across noob traders AND which is ABOVE sim for almost everyone ! RULE # 4 DO NOT OVER COMMIT A great rule! But - if you use any “rule of thumb” to determine the thresholds, you might as well go ahead and ignore this rule completely… ie use rules of thumb to start your testing – do not use rules of thumb to start your trading. RULE # 5: ISOLATE YOUR TRADING FROM YOUR DESIRE FOR PROFIT What? This is the perfect habit to build if you want to engage in perpetual personal oscillation. Better to not isolate your trading from ANY emotions, feelings, or desires… seriously. RULE # 6: DO NOT FORM NEW OPINIONS DURING TRADING HOURS. PRE PLAN YOUR TRADE A better rule would be to form your new opinions any old time you like – just be AWARE as you are forming them. RULE # 7: TAKE A TRADING BREAK: … as if trading work is the only work you ever need a break from??? btw: This one is the closest one to being an indispensable rule of all 15… RULE # 8: DO NOT FOLLOW THE CROWD. This rule is messed up by the assumption that there is a singular “CROWD” out there… you are internally already a member of several ‘crowds’ and in every trade you are going to be 'following' one of those crowds. RULE # 9: BLOCK OUT OTHER OPINIONS. Rather than resist other opinions, it’s better to just allow them into awareness without condition… RULE #10:WHEN YOU ARE NOT SURE, STAND ASIDE. sloppy bs … trading is far from surety. Go as close as you individually possibly can to uncertainty! Signal quality is not a function of signal clarity – many great trades have marginal setups and signals… and many great setups and signals produce marginal trades. If you need to be “SURE”, find another frkn game to play… RULE # 11: NEVER ENTER YOUR ENTIRE POSITION AT ONE PRICE System dependent – not a RULE you must follow RULE # 12: NEVER ADD TO LOSING POSITION System dependent – not a RULE you must follow RULE #13: CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT System dependent – not a RULE you must follow RULE # 14: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN System dependent – not a RULE you must follow RULE # 15: LEARN TO LIKE LOSSES = compensatory, self – delusional bulsht... That's it for today..happy Trading

Dangerous Ideas - Blogs at Chris Martenson

Navigate the Markets with Confidence …speaking of neighbors and remote… http://cryptogon.com/?p=27944 Top 10 Genius Reasons to Keep Troops in Afghanistan - Washington's Blog charles hugh smith-Our "Let's Pretend" Economy: Let's Pretend Financialization Hasn't Killed the Economy Post EU rhetoric = Spanish hemp ??

Huxley to Orwell… Letters of Note: 1984 v. Brave New World Obama Promises Bunker Busters To Israel If Netanyahu Delays Iran Invasion Until After US Elections | ZeroHedge Miller's Genuine Draft: The U.S. Ready to Attack Iran According to Defense Secretary CHF, good luck with this ... Switzerland Wants Its Gold Back From The New York Fed | ZeroHedge … PS an optimistic ‘list’ is in this month’s Reader’s Digest ! My neighbor brought it over late yesterday... unsolicited... :??:

Excellent distinction In my own head, I like to tell myself that with my experience 1 I could start over from nothing / 5,10,20K – but in reality I would be jumping right into the middle of Taleb’s pool… 2 I could modify and adapt my “plan” to a small scale – and actually I probably could… but it would still be crippled by sizing limitations… this part would be more like jumping into the safe, shallow end of Taleb’s pool 3. that my “track record” means something – but in reality, at small scale so much can go wrong with one or a small series of trades and the consequences are much more ‘important’… deep end of Taleb’s pool ...net net I'd be right in the middle of Talab's pool with all the other 'jumpers'... re: luck, fortune, etc… are we, as Taleb says, fooled by randomness? Yes AND no. Those 3 out of a 100 that thrive in Taleb’s pool are ‘lucky’ (it just takes a few ‘lucky’ outlier trades) AND they also bring a differentiated emotional ‘field’ to the game to 'manage' those wins and everything else that occurs…

jmo Rande, but an article giving a left brain fly by of how you are using 'the archetypes' would add knowledge but no understanding for most and would actually damage the chances many would ever go through the 'progression' - whether guided or self directed... again just my impression, but I'd advise restraint ... ...your name is Rande Howell - not Randy Howl

Personlized services and education to empower your trader Commissions as low as $0.49 per side Geeked on Goddard » How big did you say that massive plasma snake…er, magnetic filament…on the sun was? so not conspiratorial… “At first blush, a man is not capable of reporting truth; he must be drenched and saturated with it first.” - Henry David Thoreau, I to myself: an annotated selection from the journal of Henry D. Thoreau, 1837. Thomas Edison, Thomas Jefferson on monetary reform - Washington's Blog … conspiratorial… Attorney General Holder degrades US to fascist The Era of the Creepy-State is Here - BlackListedNews.com …debt money charles hugh smith-Our "Let's Pretend" Economy: Let's Pretend Student Loans Are About Education

MIRUS FUTURES You Cannot Build a Strong Economy or a Bull Market on Fudged Numbers and Lipstick | ZeroHedge A sign in an airport somewhere – somewhere nowhere near ellis island or even the U.S.A btw “Give me your brains, your ambitious.” Guest Post: Enjoy The Central Bank Party While It Lasts | ZeroHedge :haha:… this sounds like Rande Howell – but it’s not … ;) :rofl: “Emotions exceeding known parameters cause extreme events, such as stock market booms and busts. They are self-reinforcing spirals upward and especially downward that, once established, keep diverging from equilibrium until the driving forces fade or stronger counter forces reverse them.” Lombard Street On Computer Models Versus Looking At The Facts | ZeroHedge I’m being far too morbid… time for something to cheer you up 15 Potentially Massive Threats To The U.S. Economy Over The Next 12 Months - BlackListedNews.com

No, I only go “simple” when I’m forced to by low coping or mental energy,… I naturally tend to complexity. …ever wonder what happened to our OP? …wonder why he asked the OP ? ? …wonder why only one of us, Obsidian, has categorically answered his YN question. The rest of us have hem hawed around with it... My basic point was to answer OP’s question. An answer of quality would have been a straight up “No” – but I went off with some “quality BS” ( re “quality BS”, see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/money-management/12243-drawdown-2.html#post141015 ...TL would be much better off, imo, if we all put our quality here and put all our BS and “quality BS” over on ET or some place… me, included… I estimate less than 10% of my posts are really of quality… and even that estimate may be generous self delusion) not just “fanatics” … all bonafide Elliotticians ‘believe’ a wave count is present… during pure impulse monowaves where they obviously 'know', of course, but also even in complicated corrections when they can't definitively come up with more than 2 or 3 alternative counts. Dedicated Ellioticians must be prepared for impulse waves so they must delve into the complexities. To a ‘true’ Elliottician - EW is “working” all of the time... Along those lines, is it really helpful to dabble? … to use EW “when they mesh with other indicators” ? … to have a trade supported when “see something that [agrees] in the context of other things”, but not counting the ”inner waves”? … to “adapt the basic idea” ? ... to accomodate superficial 'EW' as an ancilliary construct ? just wondering ???? On some levels this is a confusing thread... more at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/9763-advice-all-stop-fighting-trend-3.html

Still :confused incongruencies btwn... ? or ? ... my confusion is maybe just from the tone of your first posts about Robert, permabear, bull market, etc.

more charles hugh smith-If This Is Such a Strong Economy, Why Does This Chart Look Recessionary?

:helloooo: … are we (completely) identifying Elliott Wave and / with Robert Prechtor yet? … are we mixing messages yet? "It is the same with all things. What starts out being sincere usually ends up being deceitful. What was simple in the beginning acquires monstrous proportions in the end." Chuang

hey mitsu, this is confusing … celebrating your own inner innovator…while denigrating Ralph, et al, who on many levels, personified and were shining examples of “ignoring convention” in their day… … “...pushing measurement very far gets you to weird things” Alder

I don't track Prechter's market calls at all. :Curious: ...How long has he been a permabear? (... and how long has it been a bull market ? ) “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.” - Lao Tzu

:haha: :FridayRascal: and The U.S. Strategy to Control Middle Eastern Oil:

...very interesting … 20 + days since op and not a single peep… Understandable, in so far as for over a decade now the stock market continues in corrective waves, instead of in impulse waves, … and as Glenn Neely so accurately put it… the work / test of ew traders is in how well they count and trade corrective patterns… …this low response rate in TL, may be indicative of a whole generation where ew is a lost art… …tangent [social Mood Watch] Summit 2011 Video: Bob Prechter Explains How Investors Herd Also understandable, in that most ew counts will still be done on dollar unadjusted charts… and are subsequently skewed, screwed, or just plain old suck… … in contrary mode I’m thinking now may a good time for noobs to explore it and for experienced traders to dust off the ew books again - not that the corrective period is over yet… but if you know how to trade ending or ended corrective phases, the impulse waves, when they come again will be ‘easy’ - and not that I espouse ew or recommend 'everyone' learn ew… I have all kinds of issues with it... 1) summation of cycles 'explains' how so many ew's can turn out not like they are 'supposed' to and has taken me much further in projecting possible outcomes than even the very best ew analyses ( btw, though, I don't regret any of the long hours I put into trading EW long ago 2) and, (yes disturbingly) for me, the "ew's" of one time frame are not 'fractals' of larger timeframe ElliottWaves' s as the traditional and consensus models posit... etc. etc... Still...