zdo

:hell lo ::: folks re “collaboration” if collaboration is really a primary part of what you are seeking it’s best to delete all the internet forums from your Favorites folder. Only 1 in 10000 forum participants are genuinely (and temporarily btw) seeking real collaboration… and the odds of that 1 being someone who wants to collaborate on the same opportunities or on the same (or even very similar) approaches as you – 1 in 1&manyzeros :godsmak: … and re “they do so without having a hidden agenda” …the unconscious agendas are much more of an impediment than are the “hidden” ones … … my jaded can kick your jaded’s ass

When I skimmed this article, I saw no actual instances of ‘investing’ - everything described was all trades. The differentiations were not between investments and trades. Instead they were really around perspectives from which trading decisions are made – fundamentals or technicals, etc etc and between planned or typical holding periods, Short time vs longer holding times, etc. The criteria that makes an activity an investment is a pre-determined willingness to materially participate if necessary in a venture to make it work. EVERY other purchase or sale is just a trade. I'm having some difficulty imagining a situation where 'investing' is even possible in the FX mkts. Hedging in fx is a trade, not an investment... so while it may be a trade in support of an investment, by itself it can not be an investment ... Even sovereigns would have extreme difficulty pulling off ‘investing’ in the FX market.

More material for your consumption and enjoyment ... that almost belongs in the Not Just Another Release thread charles hugh smith-Bernanke and Draghi Are Dangerous (btw the recent related articles he cites are also fairly short and to the point...) Have a great weekend all

Hugh, Generally speaking, in the FX pairs, the spread size is a very good correlate with liquidity… not perfect correlation though. For example right now EURUSD and USDJPY are printing the exact same spread – but if someone did a thousand quick trades, EURUSD would produce slightly more ‘liquidity’ than USDJPY... In futures, volume would be the number to look at. In my experience though in curr futures, where fills are concerned, the top 5 – 6 contracts all get about the same slippage, etc. ...btw, at various times in the past one pit was just simply better than others for fills regardless of the relative daily volume. For a long time, best overall fills came out of the SF pit…even though it didn’t have nearly the highest volume…. but times have changed… re various times of the day… in all markets, best numbers to watch regarding “time of day” liquidity is the size of the bid ask spread…. The 'data' in the following link is now dated, but still informative… kreslik.com - Traders Community :: View topic - Forex pairs spread & volume statistics hth

This is a bullish thread. Don't be bringing none of your bearish bs up in here

BlueHorseshoe, re: “What do you trade” ? For indexes at this frame, I trade* 1) ES (using setups from YM chart btw… almost perfect directional correlation) 2) NQ under certain conditions 3) YM under certain conditions I also take setups on the thicker energy contracts, treasuries, and main FX futures (and ags, at certain ‘times of the month’ ) via almost same setups but with slightly longer ‘timeframes’. I say “almost the same” because, for example, in treasury instruments the odds are on breakout type setups, so the other types are often ‘neglected’ unless I’m already synched up with an instrument… Also, I’m confident I could do ok in spread costed EURUSD, GPDUSD, etc. fx contracts the recent motivation for automation work I'm doing has been specifically tied to capturing the action in the ‘european session’ and instruments from 2 AM ET to US ‘open’. For example, a market entry would typically put the trade down +~ $14.00 in the EURUSD... at that time of night (only), I currently would be just as comfortable overcoming that $14 as I would dealing with the commission and occasional slip,etc in fx futures… re “what is a typical adverse excursion for you when trading for a one tick profit?” I may scrap and scramble back to one tick profit when necessary, but it’s very very rare that I intentionally trade for a one tick profit. The setups set up high prob closer to an overall average of 3 + ticks – and that’s being very ‘ungreedy’. re: “adversity” When reversal setups are formed, price has typically already pushed ‘further’ several times but when I start clicking in it may still go quite a few more ticks into adversity in retracement / continuation entries, because I may have to start clicking in early to make sure of participating ie way beforea retracement is over, entries are often even less precise and often have relatively more temporal adversity than price adversity … initial stops are wider for these too. Thankfully many of the 'standard' struggles are ameliorated by early identification of congestion via MarketTyping ie besides saying the max initial OSO’d stops are sub $100 per car, I can’t really discuss “typical” generalized adversity … it ultimately would be a misuse of the ‘ cohort’ for the sake of convenience… more accurately - there is a somewhat “typical” adversity for each system in each MarketType … ie a matrix of adversity. re MarketTyping The systems really aren’t the key here… Actually they are quite ”dumb”. Each system, stand alone, would be nearly run of the mill. The important ingredient is quanitified auction typing. Same intent as subjectively noting and “characterizing markets” but again, this is quantified/codified and much much more granular than typical reading of market conditions. ….It’s similar to algorithmic ‘music typing’… price adversity in certain ‘cadences’ is da nada. In other cadences, it means get out now (and even reverse in a few situations) If the setups weren’t filtered and weighted by MarketTyping, ie taking every one of them would be middle of the pack type stuff and wouldn’t be any “ fun” to trade at all… A secondary but key element of the composite ‘edge’ is limiting trades to certain places in price’s relation to dynamic ‘envelopes’. “Safety”, in this approach, is at the extremes. Trouble / real adversity comes from getting in in the ‘middle’… instantaneous trip back into the world of struggling just to clear ‘one tick’ etc. ////////////////// SUIYA, re: “one question I have --- what do you mean by 100+, 200+ without a loss --- are you talking about number of trades?” Yes. I get aligned and long runs just happen. I enjoy them as they extend (but usually don’t keep a count or think about it specifically)… and then sometimes don’t think about how long it was since the last loss until a loss occurs or I make a mistake. The work is about the same even in runs of runs and in runs of no runs … The real work for me is getting back in form (a very important aspect, btw) asap if all of a sudden I start making multiple mistakes (not to be confused with a string of trades that just plain don’t work out, btw) re :: “also what would be the rough percentage (not dollar amounts) of profit - net and gross - to you and the broker. I ask as when I was a market maker, and we could see it becoming more computerised and a different race, we changed our styles a fair bit. One reason was that while profitable, we hated paying the brokers/clearers/exchanges so much. (Scottish blood in me… We modified to having less trades, less costs, bigger margins so to speak...... (My idea of the adrenaline, was that image of people banging away on a computer, focused, manic that too many people get....doing 5000 trades to make $1000....not for me...if my computer could do it that would be another story......)" ... “…changed our styles a fair bit” I understand. Past a certain point, high / disproportionate ’costs’ would de-motivate me… Haven’t reached that point yet. Overall, costs have plummeted since I began trading back in the mid 80’s… they’ve leveled off the last few years… and I’m always wondering if and how they might creep back up. At the end of the day, usually I have no issues with / I can ignore and ‘forget’ the 7 – 20 % the broker got for these sessions. I don’t know how far past 20% to the house I could truly and healthily adapt to… and re: “We modified to having less trades, less costs......5000 trades to make $1000....not for me” :haha: not for me either . that’s net 20 cents a trade... sounds like getting up every morning and restarting a game of "how many trades before my day is ruined?" Please pardon the lag in replying... didn't stay around much Fri and had sort of thought this thread was 'dropped' by now... * btw I don’t think of it in terms of the word “scalping” in day to day use… for me, the word “scalping” still retains its original nearly at the bid and ask, working the intel of order and emotion flow, floor trader associations …

Got a few minutes before a tennis match so... I don't understand quite a few things being said...ie I'm "missing some things" even stranger than what some of ya'll are "missing"... I'll just go through quoting snippets from posts and comment.. in not very good order,btw... and.not really disagreeing with anyone... just reporting this unit's experience. I have a "scalping" / taking a few ticks per trade session almost on a daily basis! Back to the part of TN's list I questioned re "you will need to identify good areas to trade. This can be based on any method, but should show a high level of some sort of reaction at the areas you identify. " For entries, I don't look at it in terms of chart "levels" ever... I look at in terms of "setups" appropriate to the current MarketType I know what he's saying but the incongruity I was experiencing with that list item was about needing "reaction" first. I have no "confirmations" period. Another way of putting it - Basically I'm entering on the 'setup' ... Better results than if I wait for a 'signal' ... in some cases I start clicking in on the setup and don't stop until after signal / "reaction" / 'confirmation' is showing up... even pre HFT, that's the only way I've ever figured I could ever "get in front" re "scalp with the trend" - For me that holds when it's a 'parabolic' trend only (which seems to be rare(r and rarer ) I wish it would rain parabolic - but "nature abhors a parabola" ) Anything else (including when it's trending) - Nope, I don't scalp with the trend. ... and btw I don't use the book, the dom, or the tape (except under some relatively rare MT conditions) re "do it with an edge" My comment would be "an" edge is not enough. Multiple edges are required PLUS a way of knowing when to use what. I "cut, cut, cut," in only about 75% of adverse price action... The other 25%... because the setups are high probability... I ride the trade out out as is ... or sometimes beat it up with size - up to four times - at predetermined intervals - all depending on the conditions and system... From another perspective, stoploss orders are OSO'd in about 2/3 of the trades... then usually moved in... again system and condition specific... Speaking of size re "Not sure how someone can scalp unless they are so huge that they can put up size to stop price if that makes sense. " That would be sweet! Actually I did do it once long ago (pretty sure it wasn't 'coincidence')... late one night... no real euphoria resulted... should have been in bed asleep anyways... re: "buy at the bid and sell at the ask" and limit Q's, etc. Regardless of conditions or system(s) being implemented I always enter at the market. Exits vary on the system (but btw they do pay attn to the nearest SR level's ) re: "low low costs" Yep, but don't depend on them... do it regardless of what costs or obstacles present themselves... re: "intelligent algorithms" - A definite must! re: "machine-implemented" - Not a must at all ...am working on that but that work is as painful as the orginal development work.. Not "able to see orders before others" - Again that would be 'nice' but on one hand I'm not sure I would even being interested at this point in learning how to fully utilize that information and so... I don't "use all sorts of tricks like loading up the bid, seeing what is getting hit, disappearing, selling down etc..." And re: "it is all about speed" and "you'd need a naked access zero-latency data feed " I do it from far away...not colocated at all... medium grade T1 connection - lower latency would be 'nice' but I still don't find it to be required re "not for everyone" and "HFT firms almost never have losing days" It is "low risk" but it is not "high" profit... it is very good steady income (and it is only occasionally adrenalinizing) If it didn't produce runs of 100+ and often 200+ without a loss I'm pretty sure I would lose interest in doing it at all. When I do get behind, I get serious and get it back before the day is over and if I don't... I know precisely what figure I've got to surpass the next day. fkn BO probably deeply believes (at least enough to use it to wedge class warfare) that I didn't build it own my own ... that I "had help"... Well I did attempt to "cribb[] from non-financial disciplines" and maybe some of that fortunately came over and I did look to many others for help (both paying for it with money and just asking)... but in the end, I had to grind it out on my own... "Find your own way" zdo

you buy... it goes to a new nominal all time high... has wealth been built (or even protected) ? The Cons and Cons of Debt Monetisation | Steve Saville | Safehaven.com

re: Could you expand or clarify on this one ? Maybe I'm misreading it but In my view, "good areas" or not, generally someone who is applying a method that needs to wait for “a high level of some sort of reaction at the areas…” probably shouldn’t be “scalping”. thx Also, is that list prioritized ...or was that just the order they came to you ...or... ???

That which is unsustainable is indeed unsustainable... Bad Economic Signs 2012

Belief in the Fed Heads South | Paul Lamont | Safehaven.com

… taking it more and more off topic ... The best way I’ve found to be prepared for black swans is Long the PM’s (it doesn’t hurt to have an avg entry < than 1/3 current price, btw) and Short the indexes via timely / cyclical selling into weakness (but sometimes strength) and lifting cyclically …PLUS always having ‘break out’ stop entry orders resting below ) There are similar bond and fx (USD) plays also … btw, I used to ‘believe’ in this position, but I’ve worked through it… I no longer ‘depend’ on PM’s for long term ‘safe haven’ … and also acknowledge that indexes could hold up even in major black swans ie they could nominally go way way up and still not be in a ‘bull’ market… One thing to consider though that this 12 year sideways correction (which was accurately ‘predicted’ by several good ellioticicians btw ) is soon due to be over and done with… over via a black swan? who knows? … Every past and future black swan has been predicted ... but the part of the 'predictions' that seems to be always wrong is when ... Avery, may you Never Lose Again Are you trading more instruments since you went up time frame?

... just curious - I inferred a definition but just to be sure, could someone 'translate' the word "jobbing" from english-english to american-english. Many thx. ... sunday night... Ya'll have a great weekend. zdo

No good or helpful “info” was attempted. It’s just a thread to post bullish bs about the EUR when I ‘project’ a move or run across an interesting tidbit that seems on topic. Regardless of bullish or bearish, EUR continues to be ugly, fiat trash. It may lose the race to the bottom via DNF… by wrecking and tearing all to pieces. So…To rephrase “1) a smattering of 'technicals' are starting to show some persistence that a good ‘rally’ has some potential…(albeit feasibly from much lower levels )” Another way to say it is - Yet EUR continues to find relative utility… and to find “support” at both marco and mirco levels. Please don’t hold me to a high standard when it comes to mkt calls and opinions. I could bust my butt and not produce high quality posting… my “info” posts are not sufficiently timely… and worse – they are not produced consistently. Past a certain trading activity level, I forget or defer forums - so far too many would get skipped… and if all of them don’t get posted, in effect/principle all of them are “info [ that ] doesn’t help much”. ie to attain ‘good info’ level would require that I post anything and everything consistently and in consistent ‘format’ …so I rarely ever even try with posts about trading methods, edges, and techniques… and I am too ADHD sparodic to really contribute quality in the daily ES, etc . Generally, I have to confine my posts to thoughts and opinions about personal performance and to challenging some of the truisms, trading rules, and some of the silly psychological paradigms that prevail... As SUIYA said - “quick jobbing day today” … Lifting high % of EUR longs from last night as we speak...

I’m not like a TRO “rat” who can just specialize in trading just one direction for an instrument, but I do have long periods of time where I simply ignore signals from one direction… in this case, for a long time just ignored long signals in EUR. But since returning from vacation, I just realized I have started taking some longs with increasing frequency. (mostly short intraday holding period but based on intermediate time frame potential(s) ) Since May 2011, I have been posting bearish bs when I projected EUR was going to break lower. (see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/9749-fx-eurotrash.html) At this point I’m far from switching to ‘bullish’ or even less bearish… but 1) a smattering of 'technicals' are starting to show some persistence that a good ‘rally’ has some potential…(albeit feasibly from much lower levels ) 2) Also some ‘ordinary’ fx flow reasons continue to levitate it and bring it back up when it falls. 3) ... Not saying the odds don’t still favor short trades at all, but I wanted to get a little equivalent place established for long side projections … Also not saying at all that the EUR as a currency will ‘survive’… in fact I blve it is already finished … but we are all still in denial ‘for as long as it takes’… the idea of collectivism still rules the world for now… ...bringing you the world's only marco analysis ...thanks to TL which is the only venue on the planet for marco analysis

xXatheist, you talking about distinctions like the following ? practice <-> performing explicit learning <-> implicit learning quantitative <-> qualitative aspects of trading (see [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM&list=FLv8kAMSj7njj14yvMwZY5WQ&index=3&feature=plpp_video]What Makes a Successful Trader? - YouTube[/ame] ) etc?

... just skimmed some of the material in this thread coming in to post and there's a lot of quality thinking... ... wish I could think at all ... and not sure this is on topic ... maybe diff kind of Bigger Picture Chart Of The Year: The Fed Has Doubled The S&P Admits... The Fed | ZeroHedge

unfortunately these days it is usually more accurate to err on the side of jaded and cynical Part of Systemantics 101 = new agencies (NFA and CFTC in this case) actually perform their intended purpose for only a short period of time. Then they gradually transition to performing their roles and duties in appearance only. At some point in their lifecycle, corruption enters and ultimately even the appearance of performing it’s stated role / job becomes barely evident. So re: "The NFA can't regulate this industry.". It could. But for a long time now the 'job' at the upper levels of the NFA has not been to execute the stated job of the agency... for a long time now, their job and their work has been focused only on keeping that little agency / system 'alive' and funded ... and by now, odds are, high NFA officials are complicit in the wave of embezzlements unfolding Another example of this progression is DHS airport security after 911… first six months or so, it was real… then transitioned to in reality what is only an outward show of ‘authentic’ security … now the signs of the inevitable corruption are popping up everywhere… Same with other agencies … right now the FDA is probably the most extremely egregious and least known example of this progression. Same with quasi agencies like the FDIC … even if the financial realities weren’t completely overshadowing the ethical issues now, at this point we can no longer trust them to be non corrupt … of the millions who are eligible, the few who would collect any insurance payouts from the FDIC are already selected… One point to be taken from this post – Don’t just look at the bottom of that list from the “… joint review of the 70 largest Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) by the CFTC and NFA in January.” Currently, there are as many ‘suspect’ firms in the top ten FCM’s on that list as they are in the bottom ten FCM’s…bottom line, Negotiator, there is NOTHING you can really “do to ensure your margin is safe” All the best, zdo This post has been screened by the NSA and several other federal agencies. If you hear from me again, then you can assume the content of this post was deemed tolerable.

Yep, I been saying/posting it for years now – your money is just as safe with a small fly by night fx outfit as it is with a major FCN. (Incidentally) I also blve your money is just as safe with a small fly by night fx outfit as it is with a major or minor retail bank... that not a single federal agency or fdic in the world can really be depended upon. The great deleveraging is on folks... re protecting your deposit funds, one of the side effects is that the levels of protection offered by the better brokerages will be retracted. Discount services like at IB that sweep x% of your funds into a seg’d account nightly will stop being so discount, etc. As others have mentioned - spread your funds widely… and be nimble / ie be willing to work it - cause it’s a hassle… and be lucky… PS Anecdotal note - Every brokerage that I have ever seen go out of business was caused by 'personal failings' of the principles / senior managment. My knowledge here comes from watching (and thankfully only suffering once) small to medium sized firms where I actually knew the players... the same can be inferred from the likes of the growing litany of larger players like MF Global, etc.

Best advice so far is joshdances‘s in post # 7 “…don't just believe anything you read. Others will tell you what you need…” ie “Find your own way” zdo (…but btw, that does include garnering help and knowledge from others – see below) So here’s my ‘bad’ advice to you >“…interested in trading/investing…” Differentiate for yourself the difference between trading and investing. Then establish which one is for you >If you are not sufficiently capitalized, open a real (not sim) Oanda account with what you have and size appropriately to prevent ruin. Actively trade it for six months – you’ll know by then if the ‘trading’ game is for you… >When you do see your uncle ask if he’s willing to help get you up to speed. If he says yes, then have a BUNCH of questions ready to find out if his thinking style and trading methods are sufficiently compatible with your own nature --- No sense in ‘’learn, learn, learn…” from him if it’s not a fit ie don’t waste anyones’ time… Late to the party but hth

kickin David McWilliams » Punk Economics 5: The World Slows & Euro Crisis Far From Over

Week old news now but still relevant to the initial ‘I love to see EUR rally so I can short it” theme of this thread… EUR Soars Most Since October 2011 Greek "Bailout" Announcement: Here Is What Happened Next | ZeroHedge Germany will get out of EUR before Greece does ? EURUSD to parity ? or to 1.56 ? … but this time / this ‘greek election’ really is different…? charles hugh smith-Sorry, Bucko, Europe Is Still in a Death Spiral

good lord ppl ! which is worse in here ? vendors or vendor ‘haters’? the vendors have a tiny niche and help a tiny few. and yes, the vendors hurt a tiny few. and … vendor bashers ‘rescue’ a tiny few. Meanwhile TL gets trashed down to the level of ET or worse with pages and pages of drivel !!! It’s not worth it !!! Rather than bang away at vendors and what they should post and exactly how they should post it, why not let the ‘market’ / the click count decide? Let it be. If someone is attracted to what a vendor has to say, let them explore in a noise free place. I have probably spent more money than anyone else in this forum on ‘vendors’ and the fault, if there was any, was all MINE. The methods and approaches and material I needed to move through as a beginner were the methods and approaches and material I needed to move through. No one could have or should have warned or 'rescued' me… and it didn’t matter if they were truly concerned or if were more in it to ‘exploit or even if they were full blown sociopathic cons… neither their intent nor their 'style' / personality nor their content ultimately had any impact at all on what I gained / learned / benefited / extracted from them… ie the only person you are ‘helping’ when you run one of them dam vendors off is yourself imo… the posts challenging the vendor in this thread so far are as self serving as the worst vendor ever imo, ‘debunkers’ should ‘debunk’ at ET – even the 'holy', even handed ones… TL is ultimately not improved at all by even the most excellent debunking.

… not disagreeing in general…In a nice clean statistical sense with systems using trading’s characteristic 'robust' patterns, this is accurate… ... however, to point out one of the important exceptions…. > when method aligns with cycles (and also tests for presence of satisfactory ‘cyclicity’) it becomes blatantly obvious which timeframes outperform and which timeframes are victims of phase cancellation, etc. …not thinking in probabilities… thinking in cycles …hardly thinking at all… after being gone from home and forums for all but a few days in the last two months *, it may not be wise to go flailing at SIUYA first post back…and haven’t read the link equtrader posted but most likely this post diverges from its point too… * (and fortunately finding the derecho didn’t lay the place on its side) See ya'll next week

Hell yes she gets it fine! Fortunately this one is genuinely appreciative that she isn't piling up huge debt... college costs are in a bubble these days... We want the best for our kids. Hopefully this means we could provide not a thing if that was the right thing to do ... her sincere vision takes her on over the top with us... so with this particular kid, it is a privilege. Retort: You don't understand because you don't have kids Yep "Dull" really doesn't begin to describe it! A huge percentage of kids are very painful and hard work - seriously :helloooo: "how to be a trader and have a family life," does equal "how to be a trader while dealing with the wife and kids." Your not being in full knowing of that makes me think you should be just listening instead of sniping things twds off topic. This topic is about ways to pull off both trading and family successfully... and btw, "successfully" doesn't mean you have to be a great family guy 100% of the time... just be really there for them at the really important times ... hm some of the same virtues that are required for successful trading... Few traders have a happy family life. In my own life, I consider my greatest 'trading' accomplishment to be still married to the same girl after all these years. Looking back it seems to me the most important thing was to learn how to make distinct clicks back and forth ...because left to run it's typical course - family can POISON trading and trading can POISON family! khamore1 nailed it I nominate that for Post of the Year. MMS give that boy an Award!