zdo

An Elliotician asks another Elliotician "Is an Ending Diagonal completed?"

Ingot54, Broad and well considered commentary – almost too good, almost TMI thx. I admire your perspective. re: "The bottom line is that we can no longer assume that gold trading is a no-brainer" Are you saying trading PM’s will never be simple again? From my pov, trading them has never been simple. Investing in PM’s yes. Since the 70’s, I have been reading goldbug specialist articles and listening to friends who have been saying that 1) the fiat medicine has turned into poison already, or 2) is turning into poison now, or 3) will turn into poison soon – ( within 1 to x years) … How Gold Has Measured Currency Performance...Since 1971, When It Became a 'Barbarous Relic' | Julian D. W. Phillips | Safehaven.com yada yada etc etc … That makes investing in PM’s simple as fk. Buy all you can. Take delivery of all you can. But hedging and trading them has never been simple. In my experience they have a different ‘technical’ quality than many other mkts., are more manipulated relative to many other mkts., they tend to ‘price in’ coming events differently than other mkts (more ahead of or behind, etc) … you asked BobC if astro Is “a serious approach to trading” I’ll be interested in his answer. While we’re waiting I’ll share my view - ‘the stars impel, they don’t compel’ Certain AG crowds, more than do AU crowds, get (quite unconsciously, btw) ‘hooked up’ with planetary harmonics periodically and price movements will stay in phase with a planetary configuration cycle for some time – usually until another set of crowds takes ascendancy in setting the auctions. In AU, annual seasonals (solar cycles) tend to outperform lunar cycles across time…jmo re: "Only in currencies not denominated in JPY - GBP - USD - EUR will the value of gold contracts rise. Good luck with finding an exchange that will offer that! " Could you use pairs in conjunction with your Gold/USD trades to create same effect as” finding an exchange that will offer that” ? :spam: re: "My wife who is the hind-sight expert in these things reminded me I should have taken profits right at the peak on Friday". Option 1. Put her in charge of all the gold trading for a month.:missy: Option 2. Stop discussing your trades with her at all.

My first guess is Finland

They removed the euro crisis from your among your dominant concerns. You're looking for some new headline to hang your brains on and make excitatory posts for But did they really remove the crisis? Is it all better now? http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/20/the-slow-bank-run-that-could-still-doom-europe/?print=1 ... and did your local megabank lose any of your business this last month? Some of the real hardcore anti-collectivist conspiracyT-ist’s blve EU situation was ‘fixed’ / perception was formed just to help Obama get re-elected… But...etc, etc Spain rates, etc, Italy banks, etc ,Greece localities, etc, etc, etc... Let ‘s play a guessing game. Which EUR country will be the first to leave, either voluntarily or by expulsion ?

Of course they are directly related… especially at the level where each individual must find sustainable consistency for self. But find ways to need focus less often will not resolve, or even improve, the need to able to focus as often as needed on demand. Was hoping we could take it a couple clicks deeper into developing staying power… instead of “a more polite ET” level of content… DB, if you look back through your posts of last few months in ‘performance’ related topics, much of your content is about willingness to do the work. There are example posts right here in this thread (… and it’s all quality content, btw…). Willingness to do the work (and commitment and determination, etc etc etc) are all definitely a part of it. But a big factor in declines in "willingness to do the work" (and commitment and determination, etc etc) may lie in how someone works with focus fatigue and develops resilience / rapid recovery! Maybe it does involve a “compulsion for more threads” I know I’m talking to a very tiny niche - so tiny the site owner probably wishes no one would even add more threads about it. Vendors, etc. who ‘enroll’ commitment / offer a path to success, could far better describe than I the very small percentage of ‘traffic’, even repeat traffic, that stays with it and develops the necessary skills, experience, and strengths (high performance level focus, etc.) needed. So even though “they are directly related”, a couple of “work smarter” posts and we’re all done, may suffice for the middle 4 deviations. But it doesn’t help at all – for those who are willing to work! If he’s willing to work, you don’t tell a football corner to find ways to not cover so often. You want him keeping his “focus” high every dam play… all session long. You hope he's doing everything he can to train resilience in 'focus' and you do what you can to help. …will rephrase and reiterate my initial post. …seems we’re discussing two different aspects 1 OP started regarding ways to sustain ‘focus’ when it’s needed and then it veered off onto 2 ways of minimizing need for ‘focusing’ /and duration of time(s) in 'focus' To me, the two aspects do not seem to be related sufficiently to discuss well together in the one single topic Anyone have some meat re 1 ? thx.

That is a great insight. Keep it. All the rest of the ‘likenesses’, ‘analogies’, ‘ramifications’, ‘connections’, etc – throw them away and continue on your explorations. ….. and re: fasting --- some old oriental monk said “Any fool can fast, but only a wise man can break it properly” hth

thx Equtrader... from the closing of the article you cited Haven’t posted these particular yada yadas in a while so… >It is ALWAYS a “3 body problem” (anecdotally borrowing the phrase to illustrate the integral interplay, not same as it’s used in real physics, btw) --- entry, exit, stop – never isolated "optimized" close to, but not at, optimal - all at once… >In system and automation design, any tweak is actually not a tweak, it is a whole distinct new system If he persists, I predict before he’s done he will 1) retract that across the board “the robustness of the entry signals and their predictive ability under the majority of possible market conditions is what secures longer-term positive performance for trading system” You can make such generalities about certain types of systems, but you can’t make such generalities about all systems… ie that is a good generality for systems exploiting limit cycles / oscillations of markets. It is not a good generality for systems exploiting ‘trend’ where “entry signals [can be rendered more] irrelevant” and 2) he will also conclude that “using indicators to exit” really isn’t an “even more and complex case” ... Not a criticism at all… I periodically check in with this blog, learn a lot, and admire his development

If you dig you will find that those few psychopath, inbred ‘jews’ you are talking about do not have control of the judaic churches. However, their ‘italian’ agents do own/control the vatican - via dark pools, dark popes, etc etc…. and are also complicit in the world wars, and just as importantly, in all the ‘small’ wars too. ... UB pls pardon wot appears to be WAAAAY off topic ... but it actually has a lot to do with success and failure in trading ...

…seems we’re discussing two different subjects 1 OP started regarding ways to sustain ‘focus’ when it’s needed and then it veered off onto 2 ways of minimizing need for ‘focusing’ /and duration of time(s) in 'focus' To me, the two topics do not seem to be related sufficiently to discuss well in the one single topic

dood superfluous characters in white

Ever do any broceanography? Counting waves to scarf the big rhinos? Avoid close outs? Predict an A-frame? 11ths and 17ths … sometimes… sometimes not ie works for a few sets then doesn’t… frankfx, I would make sure your friend's failure was attributable to EW itself... there's a huge difference btwn knowing EW and being able to successfully trade EW... one of the best utilizations of the theory is in measuring and setting risk... don't know his particulars, but it sounds like he didn't get that part not that knowing isn't important though... In fact, most standardized, simple EW is so incomplete it is dangerous... I've never seen an EW artist thrive who wasn't way up on top of bifurcation... an aspect of the process most 'knowledgable', practiced, time spent studying EW'ers have never considered or even heard about ... and won't read about in most books or articles on the subject either...

"But, how does this actually go down? As in, where does the currency actually come into play?" In the intervening time between when you entered the first contract and then entered the second offsetting contract - in the real world, the actual exchange rate moved between the two currencies. In commerce and business and finance, enough actual Currency2 was needed to transact trade of some sort by 'enough someones' / enough agents with actual Currency1 for them to accept higher asks, etc etc. so exchange rate changed... (that was a 'demand' example ... won't go into fiat supply dynamics here) The actuals exchange rate changes are the only place where the "currency actually come into play" All the contracts trade independently of the actuals. Contracts prices deviate from the actuals prices dynamically ... they have variable influence on each other. > pulled apart from, leading or following, based on multiple crowds' projections of future value - rational and irrational, etc, etc... > and their price deviations from the price of the actuals are limited / held in close proximity to actual prices by the threat of arbitrage, etc. etc. hth

SUIYA thx. ...even though I'm a VendorBasher - NOT! I did enjoy

That said ... ... and notwithstanding... I would like to thank Ben. Almost overnight, the (in the red) 'risk-on' (AUD,NZD, etc) and interest paying (mostly INR, but some TRY, etc) positions I have been building went significantly KaChingable if closed However - CHSmith ...so moving stops into the green... Also, discussed entry plan with SI and AU a while back with MO - which is also working ok... but would not be surprised at all to see that move retrace back quickly (and maybe beyond) :haha:... it's been a long while since my own little subjective internal wall of worry for the inner bull to climb got triggered... will be processing and clearing that bs/ideation this weekend big time Have a great weekend all. zdo

You prefer disagreeing AND being disagreed with ? re: “Every oscillator is a detrended price series” How do you spell detrend? "VC is a detrend" "Oscillators are detrends." Neither of these statements are earth shakers… but they may clear some haze for someone... said it just in case... Further, while every oscillator may mathematically be a detrended price series, only ‘quality’ detrends (of which VC can be configured to be a pretty good instance) should be included in the ‘class’ of detrends for practical use as detrends. Many other oscillators should not to be included in the ‘class’. While they do keep their underlying mathematical / technical detrend worth, they are otherwise sufficiently distended - enough to produce info beyond what is available in a quality detrend… and to even “have” trends, etc, etc, etc… ... pitying the OP now... it has gone so off topic we've almost circled back around to on topic

Mr.Flo, Suggestion: post the barebones of what you have coded for these and someone will help you fix ...

Q: How do you smell 'detrend' ? A: ValueChart

The emerging definition in this thread of “trading discipline” = invariably following your own rules … and here’s a representative version of the truism “trading success really takes only one thing. discipline” bootstrap What process is needing and being ‘disciplined’? Why would someone not follow the plan? It seems to me that implied in any lacking of discipline (in all its many and variable individual degrees) are rational, quasi-rational, and irrational structural conflicts I have to question the long term viability and sustainability of simply attempting to apply “discipline” in such irresolvable structures … In another vein, it is really hard for me to see how one can consistently "just do it / discipline" without previously having built up the capacity …and practicing / applying a routine act of ‘discipline’ today will not build that capacity So, I’m not a fan of ‘discipline’ trading. I’m more out of than in agreement with the horde, literally, of ‘discipline’ traders. … I can recognize where they are coming from. … ie not making them and their positions completely wrong – just ‘completely incomplete’. Basically, I think life is fixin’ to shock all these ‘discipline’ traders – one by one… … hence the exploring if this is another Truism – NOT!

BHS This is as close to the original code made available during that TS interview as I could find Inputs: Length(x), OBLine(y.5), OSLine(-y.5) ; Vars: RFA(0), VU(0) ; RFA = Average(MedianPrice, Length); VU = Average(Range, Length)*0.2; if VU = 0 then VU = 1; Plot1 ((High-RFA)/VU, "VCHigh"); Plot2 ((Low-RFA)/VU, "VCLow"); Plot3 (OBLine, "OBLine"); Plot4 (OSLine, "OSLine"); I use it in some automation... but this base above not so useful as is... Substitute (h+l+c+c+c) * .2 for MedianPrice Use deviation bands instead of fixed OB OS lines Use adaptive central tendencies instead of Average Layer one VC on top of another (via diff (and dynamic) lengths) Only refer to it certain conditions etc etc. then :rofl: "We don't need no stinkin prices" :har har: ;););) hth

You would probably get better anwers in an FX site or at ET... but... Basically, your USD “deposit” allows you to use margin to buy ( or sell ), what is in essence, CONTRACTS (not the actuals ). Later when you sell (or buy) a contract, to offset the initial contract, it produces your Realized Profit or Loss, depending upon the intervening movement in the exchange rate btwn the pair you traded. ... ie when you can think of it in terms that you are trading contracts - you got it. hth

In forums, show me a noob’s OP about an emergent or recently identified trading problem and if there’s not at least one post from a seasoned trader/poster rephrasing the extraordinary and simple necessity of ‘discipline’ then we can safely assume the OP was stoopid beyond any belief or credence. ? Maybe a Discipline! NOT! post is not needed. So before I go off on Discipline! NOT! , it would probably be a good idea to get clear what the best current consensus is of what ‘disciplined trading’ is. ??? What is ‘disciplined trading’? ??? What does it imply? ??? Can someone please summarize for us what all those posts are getting at ? thx

... only MC aficionados know + :ayellowallsmileryface:)

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yes, all that and more. However, it is important though to understand that “fasting” is the surface process of the underlying intent – which is autophagy… btw, most ppl who are prioritizing weight loss (or changing body fat ratio) will get better results on a different schedule than day on, day off ... mostly because for them - especially in the early stages - it takes more than one day to get sufficient autophagy kicked in ... ie using "studies" is not a very good validation or guide for your own application of the principles... even framing IF, etc as a 'die t' is careening off course... far better to get to know your own autophagy markers... …If you need, I can provide niche guidance, info, and referrals to individuals via PM... all the best, zdo

Two Days Ahead Of More QE, JPM Finds That World Is Already "Drowning In Liquidity" | ZeroHedge /// “…it may not be rational to start a bank run, but it is rational to participate in one once it had started.” Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England There Must Be Some Way Out Of Here | ZeroHedge /// :helloooo: dear mods and members, When I showed up in here a few minutes ago to post, why would two freakin 'guests' be reading a thread that hadn't been updated in months and months ???? thx