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zdo

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by zdo

  1. To Pristine’s credit, re : “handful of traders” – he does seem to be acknowledging the tiny niche he can actually help. ... however it looks like he immediately backslides from that with "...We want to make sure that you stay with us..." = delusional... "staying" for most will be a waste of both party's time... re: Excellent points… I take them even further. The really thriving traders I know are ‘rule makers’ not ‘rule followers’. They are not AND NEVER HAVE BEEN good candidates for ‘trading education’… am pretty sure this fits into Tharpe’s profile / test (and stats) … but don’t know exactly how re "there still remains the process of converting that information into a format that suites the trader" Rule of thumb: The more similar a 'trading education' is to 'normal education' (which is in itself also fuctup) the more useless it is... // Re mentors: “…their first mentorship experience was a flop, because they were learning from a mentor whos trading style was not going to work for their own personality.” It goes way beyond ‘personality’… and I understand you may have just used the word for brevity, but the few who might be mislead by the term’s usage are unfortunately among those that need not to be mislead the most:roll eyes: More refinement re mentors…if you are 'learning' from a mentor, you are not being mentored yet. A great mentor has the perfect question from his pile of questions at the ready… but he does not provide one single answer.
  2. Don’t quite get what this has to do with the price of beans in china … but Three Things Investors Don't Know About Europe | ZeroHedge EUR_ _ _ ... till Nov 6... a promise is a promise
  3. Disclosure: David, the OP, is probably long gone now so this post is targeted to those few who are in quest of thriving at pareto of pareto levels. If you check my posts re: sim’n, you’ll find me to be one of the foremost sim-bashers on the planet. Sim-bashers are in the minority… that right there should tell you something… ie 'normals' can ignore Sim’n is the epitome of under training. Period. Undertraining usually leads to as much ‘injury’, pain, and diminution of performance as does overtraining. So here’s some advice. Sim has its place – but you should never revert to sim because of ‘performance’ issues again … reframe your game… play for real to start with ... No matter how unambiguous your ‘rules’ are, the markets always has ways to make them seem iffy and the markets always have a way of belying the odds of your edge :haha:… and guess when the odds of the markets doing those things are ??? For the first few ‘epochs’ in a trader’s development, the odds are always with the first few trades after he goes live :crap: … it seems perversely diabolic … until one day you realize how you’re actually setting yourself up by not getting fully in touch with your own internal ‘runs’ of perception and adaptation … and you can never really get in touch with them if you sim.
  4. noobs, whatever you do, don't listen to this nonsense. ... because only 1% really 'understand' and 'agree' with him. ... and if he happens to say anything about how the emotions get stirred before the winning or the losing and what to do about it - don't listen to that either... :wnkwink:
  5. before I leave for the weekend… To answer the original OP question Is Discipline Enough to Succeed? In a word - No. I think it was goodoboy who said ‘discipline’ is everything. He’s not alone. On the internet, if there’s one post or article pumping ‘discipline’ there are 10,000 or more. Throughout the thread I serially substituted several words – for “discipline” in the content of Negotiator's OP Is Motivation Enough to Succeed? Is Commitment Enough to Succeed? Is Perseverence Enough to Succeed? etc These ?’s start to get at the following points… The costs of repetitive self implemented / instrumental ‘discipline’ never produce sufficient, sustainable offsetting benefits. In my experience, traders need to grow a personal model where the development of toughness * , not ‘discipline’, is central. In such a personal performance model, ‘discipline’ becomes a subset, available as an option to be utilized in a limited and strategic way - like the PowerBoost on a A1 race car AND not as a habitual resort to be 'forced' into to prevent "tanking", "getting pissed", or "choking", etc. Thriving traders hold ‘discipline’ in reserve for opportunities – not to habitually apply to uncertainty, (fkn ‘rule’) conflicts, stress, or even sudden adversity. I don't give a sht if this is " correct views in the field of psychology" or not - the 'discipline' pumped in the 10000 posts and articles leads to breakdown period ! Earlier I begged for some clarifications on exactly how they were using the term from those who were asserting positions about ‘discipline’. Only Steve46 responded. To give those that didn’t clarify the benefit of the doubt, let’s just assume they ultimately want you do to the same thing I bang on a lot – Create your own personal contructs for all of your performance development for yourself. Create very clear self compatible contructs! … immediately breaking from the crowd again ... a need to 'apply' discipline arises when one must choose between immediate gratification (/or relief) or remain in discomfort (/ stress) for a what possibly might be a more meaningful payoff. ...over '9500' of those '10,000' posts, et al. emphasize mental aspects and prescribe excluding / avoiding /denying the MAJOR EMOTIONAL** components of these dynamics. If you want to be a high level performer, you will go toward – not go away from – your emotions!!!!! If you have to crank up the ‘discipline’ more than once or twice a month in your trading, take that as a clear sign your trading ‘rules’,systems, methods, etc are not sufficiently compatible with your self – with your talents, skills, inclinations, attractions, etc. An extreme illustration: ‘Coach’ is playing you at cornerback when you would be performing much more effectively on the offensive line. With traders, the contrasts are usually not so blatant and extreme as in that illustration - but the effects are! *** The main point - needing to apply ‘discipline’ to stick to your ‘rules’ usually means you need to make (major or slight) slide shifts in your methods / ‘rules’ **** … and NO, that does not get you off the hook in the work of strengthening yourself . Thriving traders are forever working to improve edges AND improve ‘self’ . Improvement in one always requires development in the other… development and refinement of new and existing skills etc. in both methods and personal toughness. Have a great weekend all zdo * If you’re serious about developing toughness, in lieu of the ‘discipline’ rat hole, one good place to start is with the (early, but not earliest) works of Dr. James Loehr … I would post more about it but there's really no need... 95% will stay in the crowd and the others - thankfully, they don't really need me much...they will find it on their own ** and MAJOR physical components = another thread ***Although I think he fcks it up pretty bad in his first article (mainly because he doesn’t get how passion and alignment significantly obviates the need for applying ‘d’to all those things in his next to last paragragh- ie he’s giving explanations, not reasons, traders ‘fail’ ie it is a “philosophical dissertation” after all), Pristine’s article at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/markets/14450-what-causes-failure-part-two-three.html is another good way to study the limits of ‘discipline’. It gets at the ‘alignment’ issues I brought up above through the perspective of (attentional and) focus challenges . Now place yourself in it. Do you really want to spend your life focusing on something that is not compatible with you? Intimately explore your own talents and inclinations as deeply as you explore market representations (charts,etc) and “education” on systems, methods, and techniques. ****’rules’ another term we traders tend to act like we’re all talking about the same concept - but we ain’t!
  6. My memories and results of that day are posted elsewhere… One image I haven’t mentioned elsewhere… I remember glancing out the window of home office and seeing my bride swimming laps in the pool – totally oblivious while what today would be about a 3000 point drop in the Dow … ... one lesson: It wasn’t the first and it certainly wasn’t the last… but it was a significant nail in the coffin of my ‘Normalcy Bias’ … thankful for that.
  7. Re: Political and religious leanings corre. trading acumen Don’t know… don’t really care… leary of even attemping to be objective ... ( it wouldn't be much better than saying something like Tebo is a better qb than Sanchez bcse Tebo is a 'Christian' ) Why do you ask? Have you noticed the HUUGE discrepancies/ polarities/incongruities in internal belief sets some ppl can maintain and still be ‘functional’ in (day)trading (and life)…? I have :missy:
  8. Bogle appears to be as delusional as the real / cnbc talking heads these days... I used to be high on his products... Tams, hoping you're not sipping this "nvstmnt" koolaid - it is really just trading slowed way down ...while tripping out on this "nvstmnt" concept ...it poisons you to death... If the indexes just barely kept up with curr. 'inflation' / debasement Dow, etc. would be over ____ If rates (were allowed to stay) 'kept up' with curr. 'inflation' / debasement, yields would be ____ % (compared to less than 0 now) ... = balanced portf - my ass Meanwhile, the list of 'risk' types (beyond curr) unseen by retail 'investors' just continues to grow... Old ,but still New!, alternative viewpoints he didn't mention ... The Great Game, Gold Arbitrage and Three Little Pigs | Daniel Amerman | Safehaven.com ignore this ... cause I'm not an 'authorized agent '
  9. Today is the 25th anniversary of “Black Monday” Anyone in here trading that day? Memories? Lessons? Thx.
  10. Cute. I particularly liked the spoofn … brings up - which half you do believe in?One half gets you a republic (if you can keep it) the other half gets you a mob democracy (if you can keep it) and of course :tongueincheek: Obama has completely disclosed and thoroughly explained his tax plan a spoofn of his site wouldn't even show a button to try catch… Tax plan by inflation… debase debase debase Tax plan the whole via socialization and redistribution – works every time … related: “picking losers, one sector at a time…” ie selective penalization of wealth… Example: Taxpayers To Recover $0 On Solyndra | ZeroHedge (and only a tiny percentage of that ‘investment’ ended up in the hands of ‘working’ taxpayers.) Tax/control via debt... Example: the student debt issue - some O talk, no policy action to alter its course... would be a cute equivalent spoofn of O's site. From the very few minutes of the debate I watched it was made clear that the chances of either one of them really understanding something like charles hugh smith-The Hidden Cost of the "New Economy": New-Type Depression is nil Again - rather than playing 'helpful idiot' whacking at one or the other, why don’t we wake up (yep, u2 Bitch ) and see that neither the Republicrats nor the Democans have any intention of re-forming our relationships with the financincesters, of cutting deficit spending, of reducing the reach of government, or of curtailing costly wars and 'empire building'. Neither of them will help you break your denial 26 things to get done before the global debt collapse :haha: Don't even try to out ridiculous me
  11. Steve46, I understand but I daresay that even in these tough economic times if we were privy to how it unfolds, many of those you are using as examples ultimately become ‘faders away’ . I have just seen it too many times. .. (and I’ve know too many guys who are brighter and more talented than me who don’t stick because they never really get self and method aligned, etc etc.) and…was not in any way implying that it’s “coming to us on a platter” ! On the contrary, the ‘find your own way’ traders I’m talking about typically have to deepen several more levels of toughness than the ‘found someone who will teach me to be profitable’ types. …and are required to ‘change’ more profoundly than the ‘teach me’ trading students ever do! And I’m going by numbers when I make these claims. Maybe our differing conclusion are from evidence diverging by pure chance, (or maybe you attract more conformists than I do ) . My sample is comprised of about 2000 developing traders I have been exposed to close enough to develop some insight into their processes and p/l's– ~ half as a broker with a book, and the other half as a fellow broker, as a trading trainee, as a trainer/vendor, as a firm principle and employer, as a fund manager with clients who also traded their own money, etc. as a peer of all of the above and of traders, as a mentor, etc. ie It’s not just a sample of one. But fwiw - my own case: In the early days, I had the episodic, but luckily sufficient, ‘discipline’ to stick to a way that was not my own – rather inflexible, seasonal trading. It was very profitable. I was extremely lucky ... Also, I went through an extreme ‘search’ stage… spending more USD on training, systems, books, seminars – other ppl’s ways- than most … even more than many traders ever lose or make… we’re talking 6 figures… But - windfall profits via someone else’s ways or not, and exposure to a multitude of others’ methods or not – ultimately I had to find my own way or get out of trading … much shorter term trading, developing MarketTyping, and developing a ‘portfolio’ of systems to exploit the MarketTyping ... So again I will assert that from the whole of samples, most of the small percentage of those that survive and thrive do “find their own way” - a ‘way’ that is closely matched 1) to the representations of the auctions they perceive best, 2 ) to the way they mentally process things and 3) to the levels of stress they can ‘metabolize’ and 4)…
  12. Thanks Steve46, but my questions were going back to posts made by Negotiator (and goodoboy and …) about how they are defining / using the ‘discipline’ word…I should have clarified that… nonetheless good post. One point of disagreement with your thinking: It has been my experience that the preponderance of the small sample of those who do survive and thrive are in fact what you’re calling "do it yourselfers" at their core… (and, secondarily, they are also simultaneously open enough to seek teaching help, and guidance, when necessary) … and that in the whole of the sample I’ve been exposed to, I’ve discovered that no amount of “find someone who IS winning and get them to show you how its done” will save 80% of those who initially choose that route. It's partly because, as DBP just posted, “Unfortunately, most of those who claim to be willing and able to help him will only make things worse.”. But much more importantly, as I have previously pounded on many times, a trader who learns methods and even internal skills that are not compatible with his true self typically ends not in failure but in the fade away (and btw - fade away' s are a part of the failure 'stats') (Note: generally - I’m talking about independent traders, while it seems you are primarily focused on teaching ways to succeed as an employee for a firm. Yours is a valuable perspective to add into the trading forum mix and I’m glad you contribute on TL.)
  13. bump fwiw ... asking sincere, not frivolous, questions ...
  14. Is Persistence Enough to Succeed? This is probably a question which is more broadly applicable than to just trading and it would probably be helpful to hear from those well versed in current (not always necessarily correct though) views in the field of psychology. Is it enough to be just very persistent at something in order to become successful at it whilst not having bucket loads of natural ability and possibly more importantly, the passion for it? I would note that by success I mean replicable positive results, not necessarily be at the very top of the tree so to speak. My feeling is it depends. Probably a great deal on the type of guidance the individual receives. I think that natural ability is only fulfilled with persistence. Clearly therefore, there will be some individuals with very little need for external influence to experience some degree of success. Yet there will be some who are extremely persistent who lack the flair and intuition (or whatever you want to call it but please, that's a different thread!) to know what they should be doing and there are those who have the flair and so on but not the persistence. How important do you consider each factor?
  15. Back off topic “When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross.” Sinclair Lewis 14 defining characteristics of fascism: The U.S. in 2012 - Madison Independent | Examiner.com … “... sometimes nothing happens for a whole decade. Sometimes a whole decade happens in a week” Lenin Why Are Americans So Easy to Manipulate? "...don't call me austrian, not fit to The picture kept will remind me don't call me austrian, not fit to be The picture kept will remind me"
  16. Back on topic Chart Of The Day: Hourly Earnings, Or The Lack Thereof | ZeroHedge
  17. Fiat Currency and the Emerging Police State | John Rubino | Safehaven.com wtf … maybe when I get Austrian figured out I will write a book … How To Be An Austrian And Not Even Know It… but will probably never get past wtf… too many Austrians are ‘gov’t austrians’ – they're one dam ‘academic’ trick from being tricked into the Key again - ‘forever’ … how many really see to really ‘live’ that the left is collectivism, etc ‘imposed’ from ‘below’ and the right is collectivism, etc. ‘imposed’ from ‘above’? … that they are a fake opposition? it’s amazing so much 'Austrian' bled through in that post… the intention was only to out – ridiculous dbp ( who, btw, did take a pretty good swipe at ridiculous) I did it for TL. No one cares if zdo is uber ridiculous, but if dbp looks ridiculous it becomes sort of a "say it ain’t so, Joe" moment
  18. Thanks a lot for the label. What’s an Austrian? … speaking of aust… ‘austerity’ I was just fussing over in a trading psych thread how the word ‘discipline’ takes on many different meanings… while in the conversations we act as if it only has one meaning … looks like ditto for the ‘austerity’ word :confusedmuppethead?: Will someone please clarify for us what the financial press, the political talking heads, etc, etc. mean when they talk about ‘austerity’? like …in this article, ‘austerity’ is “needed” AND it won’t “work” Christine Lagarde On Austerity: 'It's A Very Narrow Path To Be Taken' Thanks.
  19. goodoboy, re Since you have "come to [the] conclusion its all discipline" please clarify how you are using the 'd' word... trading discipline - applied to what specifically When is it applied? And for how long? thx
  20. Wow, JohnW . Excellent! Deep insights. I’ve always kept it too brief… just said “If you have to apply discipline more than once or twice a month in your trading, then something is off with the match between you and your methods”. Now when someone asks me wtf I’m talking about, I will just refer them to your posts in this thread. Thanks.
  21. Is Commitment Enough to Succeed? This is probably a question which is more broadly applicable than to just trading and it would probably be helpful to hear from those well versed in current (not always necessarily correct though) views in the field of psychology. Is it enough to be just very committed at something in order to become successful at it whilst not having bucket loads of natural ability and possibly more importantly, the passion for it? I would note that by success I mean replicable positive results, not necessarily be at the very top of the tree so to speak. My feeling is it depends. Probably a great deal on the type of guidance the individual receives. I think that natural ability is only fulfilled with commitment. Clearly therefore, there will be some individuals with very little need for external influence to experience some degree of success. Yet there will be some who are extremely committed who lack the flair and intuition (or whatever you want to call it but please, that's a different thread!) to know what they should be doing and there are those who have the flair and so on but not the commitment. How important do you consider each factor? … in this thread, I still get the feeling diff posters are using the ‘d’ word in different ways (and carrying on as if we aren’t) . It’s Negotiator’s thread, so ideally he would differentiate and clarify just a little bit … so re: What’s interesting? And application of what? When? And for how long? (And when not? And how long would be too long? etc.) (dang… and I thought I was vague )
  22. Negotiator, Which ‘discipline’ are you talking about? Applied to what? At what point? Here’s why I ask ie In the replies already posted at least three different ‘uses’ of the word have come up. In my illustration taking off on the OP, I left ‘motivation’ and ‘passion’ in the same sentence because of sufficient differentiation btwn them… Please make the same qualities of differentiation in the various ‘disciplines’ and ‘places’ and 'durations' they are applied in trading before we jump into attempting answers. Thanks.
  23. (even though this was cleared up for us by an anti-semite…) Whew I’m so glad to hear that everything’s all better now … numbers weren’t massaged at all … and they have never been massaged because the BLS has always maintained such high integrity… those stupid suspicions that the rule of law is dead in the U.S … been put to bed forEver… …and the economy is healthy again… numbers, massaged or not, had nothing to do with the increase in the quantity of ppl employed via ‘part time’ so companies can evade coming ‘oCare’ requirements and early holiday hiring… and the JOLTS data means nothing … and that now unmentionable fire without a flame, charles hugh smith-Energy Higher, Earnings Lower -no longer a factor :smellyface: …any concerns from ‘In the space that has no gravity’ like Guest Post: The Many Guises Of Financial Repression | ZeroHedge are probably moot now ...still think nothing is going to protect you from darkness? Wake up! You just haven’t bought into all the ‘jobs creation’ talk yet charles hugh smith-The World's Largest Money-Laundering Machine: The Federal Reserve Frederic Bastiat, 1850 (oh he’s anti-christians too? …am still glad he cleared things up for us…tptb are blameless)
  24. zdo

    Guessing Game

    bump (superfluous char count piled up to minimum needed yet)
  25. Colonel B, I understand your disagreement about the order of progression. I even wish you were 'right'. And don’t worry, your position is safe in the big crowd… only a tiny few will ever consider challenging it. However, across many years and in many contexts, I have been exposed to and have observed with ongoing curiosity the paths of over 2000 developing traders – and I’m reporting that the preponderance of that small percentage who do survive and thrive do it close to the way I described above for Horace, et al, …and, btw, for sure you won’t find them “just hook[ing] up with a bunch of other failing do-it-yourselfers and your in business” (or falling for similar traps being alluded to in the distractions and ‘discounting’ attributions made in your post and elsewhere.) For the most part, those who make it tend to go through a ‘playful’, open, beginner's mind, experimental phase, then rather quickly progress to settling in to seek and find their own way first, then add in ‘continuing education’, tips, tricks, insights from teachers who use similar methods, then they are ready for a mentor. The rest are losers – period. They wouldn’t be saved even if the “main problem in the retail community”, loser trading education vendors suddenly all vanished and were replaced by excellent ‘beginning swimmer’ instructors. Starting them in ‘trading kindergarten’ won’t help – because they can never ‘start’ inside themselves. The equivalent of a trading ‘lifequard’ (or even a high quality instructor in the basics beforehand, ) won’t help them survive. For these reasons (and others), I continue to challenge any and all guidance leaning toward attempting to apply parallels btwn trading education and the paradigms of ‘normal’ education. Again, don't worry - only a tiny few will ever disagree with you. All the best, zdo
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