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zdo
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What is Real and What is Not in Technical Analysis
zdo replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
TheDude, Missed seeing your post earlier... Prove what? Randomize an SMA length (from 10 to 200) and run it on 'charts' * of + 30 instruments ‘showing’ 2500 bars each At least 5% of the price APPROACHES to the MA will ‘hold’ and ‘turn price away’ 5% beats the snot out of .0023148 % … doesn't "prove" much … but sufficiently proves "it” … resistance to closure will take you further than you can imagine… ... going further How can a central tendency, such as an SMA, (which lags or is incorrectly right shifted in most charts / representations by half the number of periods in the MA length (and an EMA lags by 2/(P+1) ie. ~1/3 number of periods)) sometimes provide clues to where price will be turned away / ‘supported’ or ‘resisted’? imo ,it can’t…. and also doesn’t make much sense. But if you observe (visually or quantitatively) and id the slope / angle of a ‘swing’ / wave’ / movement , you can ‘learn’ which central tendency lengths correlates well with those angles to produce the ‘turn aways’ and vary your central tendency parameters accordingly. (...and, again, is it really the central tendency doing it? Doubtful. ) More likely the central tendency of the ‘optimal’ length is just doing a pretty good job of tracking one side of the angular ‘channel’ being formed by price’s ‘oscillations’ within the ‘channel’ (Why does price ‘oscillate’ within ‘channels’ around ‘value’ *? Don’t know. Don’t care. Ask Dalton and Co. or some other auction theorist, of some anti 'auction theorist, or Mitsubishi, or even WHY? himself ) This type of stupid TA Too much work for you? Not aligned with your aptitudes? Not interesting enough? +60% accuracy not good enough for you? Any and All of the above objections are ok. I completely understand. "Find your own way" zdo Those are not fundamentals. They too become technicals. They are news events revealing quantity snapshots that may be used to exclaim quality fundamentals… the convenience with which one can include plots of them on a ‘chart’ makes it that much easier for the information to become ‘technified’ in many minds… as DBP says “the idea is to profit from asymmetrical order flow”. Real order flow work is not mentally possible (or not fascinating enough, etc ) for many, so they have to infer, speculate, project using old fashioned (and all these newly created) ‘technicals’ … “predicting the future is hard, especially if it hasn’t happened yet” yogi bera Have a great weekend all. * why do I use so many ‘ ‘ ie single quotes around words? Bcse there is something ridiculous , something off, about those ‘’ words… something that needs to be questioned… not just accepted as is… especially going from a 'writer' to a 'reader'...- 51 replies
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i am so glad to have finally found a thread that is exempt from einstein's blurb about insanity
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What is Real and What is Not in Technical Analysis
zdo replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
TheDude re; "BTW - he was talking about my definition of TA, not yours!!)" Check again. The distinction you are making is "Not Real" All these “definitions” - yours too - are subsumed under wrbtrader’s ‘definition. Rephrasing his def slightly - TA is when a trader opens a chart or other visual representation of a tradable instrument and then makes a trade decision based upon any information they get from that representation All 3 of the 'types' of TA’s DBP ‘defined’ do that – including your’s… Hierarchies aren’t lateral. zdo- 51 replies
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Release? [The message you have entered is too short. Please...]
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What is Real and What is Not in Technical Analysis
zdo replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
wrbtrader, that’s just beautiful. (… but probably not to the indicator haters…sad) Not entirely accurate… more accurate would be something like ‘logically sound, fixed rule TA does not work alone’. Few believe me when I say , returns on TA with selective logical defiance at adaptive times are not random… (and it should be noted that most beginners can’t just skip to that stage… nor is it easy to 'code' ) :helloooo: More splendid wisdom. Let me go ahead and take it even further ... on over the top as usual… beware anyone who claims to be disclosing ‘everything’ about his trading approach. He may be really trying but it can’t be done by anyone who is not gifted and skilled in authentic transmission. (which also requires a fully prepared recipient, btw) . 'Mentors' who are 'teaching' trading = fkn nonsense. I don’t even try. Best rant I’ve seen in a long time. Thanks.- 51 replies
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What is Real and What is Not in Technical Analysis
zdo replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
:jadedface: Thanks. …and yet – each and every wave in the oceans ‘tastes’ of the oceans …tick tock... luckily, TA has ‘slightly’ better accuracy than 1 in 43200 (seconds) … :haha: can you imagine being fooled by randomness 43199 times out of 43200 tries ? from the film Argo Blasting TA is no more of effective ‘curtail’ than is lampooning the Hollywood industry. Blasting TA via logic doesn’t stop or help anyone… the money still keeps coming in…- 51 replies
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Thx. for me, 1.245 would do just fine re 1.2 Instead of "Can it...? " My question would be "Will it... in the next 2 - 3 weeks?" By end of 11/12, my active short bias starts dropping pretty fast ... almost fully dissolved by ~ year end...
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ditto Tams like how many in N? if it's only two A and B then you don't need loop, etc. pls post the code you developed from BHS' suggestion (leaving out how you're getting X if it is proprietary...etc) his 'logic' is sound so we may be just looking for a bug
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johnw - "shrink The Elephant and Increase The Rider " doesn't make me feel better already translation is johnw - "shrink The Elephant and Increase The Rider " doesn't make me feel better already ;wink Beyond what I've heard in here, I don't know that story and I don't understand the metaphor for sure...plus the Twitch authors could have been using it differently from the way bodhi was using it. etc etc. ... and personally, my daddy was from the bud side of the mountain and my mama was from the tao side ... so while making the man bigger might be ok, some severe reservations wei wi up when we start talking about shrinking an elephant... (btw, that's a :smile for our emoticon challenged friends herein) ... Can you describe people balance a little bit more (maybe best in a new thread) Thanks.
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The Low of a Bar is Meaningless :missy:
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more potpouri Voting Problems... - BlackListedNews.com /// Nate Silver Gives Obama a 92.2% Chance of Winning - Politics - The Atlantic Wire Why Obama should want a loss on Tuesday - BlackListedNews.com /// And no matter who wins 7 Technologies That Will Make It Easier for the Next President to Hunt and Kill You | Danger Room | Wired.com Election 2012: How The Winner Will Destroy America /// How the State Subverts Responsibility | Menno Troyer | Safehaven.com
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charles hugh smith-The Imperial Presidency
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SUIYA, No, unfortunately I have not read the book Switch yet… will add it to my list. I have seen similar references to 'rider (rational) elephant (emotional)' … and since it is a ‘budha’ story I would have to question ‘who’ the rider and elephant was in the original before being able to comment much beyond… over time in my own world, the moorings to hemispheric constructs have been eroded and jerked out, etc. … also, I tend to have immediate issues and start looking for the unstated, mediating ‘axis’ shortly after such dualities are presented. So, to answer your questions, SUIYA – I can’t be sure I’m talking precisely about the same thing … it’s all related… …limits of language etc. --------yes - “kinda” would be safe... kinda little bit not much maybe:roll eyes: “The enemy is denial” Dave Grossman. In mainstream pop trading psych. ‘discipline’ gets big time emphasis, but in the path I’m on it is a capacity that should only be called upon a couple times a month…so in this thread I’m really talking in the backwaters. The larger topics / contexts are much more important. And within those confines, my point in this thread is simple – disproportionate ‘discipline’ reinforces dysfunction. ... ~3 in a 100 will drop the pop crap and really go for effortless high performance…they really get it that the pressures to perform NEVER dissipates, but that paradoxically, performance cannot be forced… along those lines... (while maybe it’s not part of the story you’re referring to) sadly, the real potentials of the ‘elephant’ can also be significantly restricted by the desires and tricks of the fkn ‘man’... (and, no, johnw - "shrink The Elephant and Increase The Rider " doesn't make me feel better already ) But, whether he is talking about the 'story' or not, johnw’s pointing to ‘clarity’, etc. could stand more personal exploration by the few who are committed to these ways... I use the term ‘flow’ for the experience (and be careful of limiting your exploration to the rather narrow, mental, Csikszentmihaly, pop, et al, utilization of the term) ...
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With Ohio This Election's Deciding State, Here Is The Truth Behind Its "Jobs Miracle" | ZeroHedge What if the presidential counts are too close to call again? :crap: ... and btw, guys, they DO have the same puppet masters... and they ain't lobbyists... ... denials... ...cynic sisms...
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Hi PQL You should get together with BobC's Lunar Module... :rofl: bobc, I couldn't resist
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I personally came up via the standard habituation to edges and extinction of maladaptive bhvrs model. I saw through the ‘d’ trap faster than most – but still stayed in this whole ‘discipline’ muck way too long… Discipline is NOT enough to succeed! It is far from enough! Very generally, ie in most instances ... (example: like most of the members of Steve’s class as a sample at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/14467-discipline-enough-succeed-7.html#post165446 – …and, btw, not picking on you Steve46 – bcse what you’re putting them through is a necessary stage – but to help those who see through a little bit and really want to overcome the confirmation biases so rampant in trading pop psychology ( even among those who don’t ‘believe’ in or ‘need’ any trading psychology.)) ... anyways to start again... Very generally, ‘Trading Psychology’ is a trap! “All you need is ‘Discipline’’ is a trap! ‘Trading with discipline’ does not accurately describe reality any better than the freakn economic models accurately describe economies! I’ve seen classes like Steve’s. Sometimes it looks like the whole class gets it… sometimes most of them apparently get it… and sometimes only a few --- but the painful fkn reality is that none of them really ‘get it’… after they leave. The sympathetic nervous system is not availed the information to differentiate between true physical threat and false symbolic threat. Taking ‘discipline’ home with them ( or back to their office, in the case of his classes) will not train them to detect CNS fatigue (not muscular fatigue, like in the boxing examples , but with similar, more subtle, dynamics that are much more difficult to detect real time), etc, etc. NO MATTER HOW MUCH THEY HAVE CONSCIOUSLY COME TO BELIEVE IN THE ODDS OF THEIR EDGE – they are no where near ready to avert tanking(like Ali did in first Spinks fight), turning negative / losing confidence, choking (like Foreman did in the examples just above). These are distinct traps that the students will not be able to cope with consistently. Their managers, not the students, will vigorously have to intervene and prevent consequent mistakes and losses. Conscious application of ‘discipline’ will not prevent a trader from going into sympathetic arousal. By the time a trader needs to apply ‘discipline’ to follow the system / stick with the plan, he is a already in sympathetic arousal. Discipline will not really help one effectively cope while in sympathetic arousal – ie long term, reliance on ‘d’ is counterproductive in developing skills to recover back underneath sympathetic arousal threshold … And most importantly, the “DISCIPLINE to trade the plan” as discussed over and over over and over in trading forums contributes to forming even less adaptive ‘structures’ for future challenges… leading to bound flow
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My sentiments (NOT) exactly (but very close... ...for one, they too are still using the 'd' word way to broadly...) :spam:
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From the replies in all these ~30 pages, it appears your earnest effort to carefully structure the content and wording of your original question did not matter one bit … joshdance, would you share (if you have time and energy) if you’ve ‘learned’ anything valuable re your original question from the replies in the thread …and what. ...and do you still have questioning re the topic? Thanks.
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fakebook...falue charles hugh smith-The New Facebook Buttons: Promote, Despise, Abandon
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because ... weil es ist dumm :rofl: ...suppose each of us created our own close. oh wait - we already do that now... …still darkness forever Everything to the left on your chart is free information but it only includes as many closes as there are ticks in everything to the left on your chart...be careful how many closes you include to the left. ...and every market does currently have just one bar - on a timeframe that is the life of the instrument... and that timeframe is no more or less ludicrous than any other timeframe / representation in use...
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Exactly. An investment is capital into an enterprise that you are willing to materially participate in to make sure it succeeds... everything else is just a trade... :haha: LiquidCourage This - As Redemptions Surge, The Dreaded Hedge Fund "Gate" Is Back | ZeroHedge is one of the primary reasons why I haven’t been in any managed money (except for relatively small exposure in two mutual funds) for years and years now...
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Negociator, Here it goes again I can’t make a response that I can live with unless I reframe your ‘questions’… question your precepts... etc. Do you mind? Respectfully, zdo
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TRO, At your level of development you might be better served checking how many of those ‘types’ of trader you can evoke, bring forth, embody, etc. on demand – instead of just surveying which type you ‘are’ … just a thought… All the best. zdo
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Way back at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/12081-close-bar-meaningless-13.html#post139913 I was praying that Thankfully, I doubt we have ‘influenced’ anyone… :crap: 27 fkn pages later What we have done is come closer – closer to ET than ever before in the whole history of this forum… Is there any way the mods could drain this thread from TL and tranfuse it in its entirely into ET?
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omG [27 pages of the same crap over and over]