zdo

BHS, Vince has been a very costly 'associate'. After having spent more money than I care to divulge on programming and testing for optimum – f… and then even more for leveraged space programming, etc. I can safely say for my own purposes I should have remained more singularily focused on an “adaptive approach to … chronomorphic distributions”. Practically, getting a handle on the “morphing” is far more important than dialing in (some theoretical) improvements on “MPT”… so re: sizing. Over the long haul, the original ‘optimal-e’ work I did way back when -which basically makes a sufficiently good guess on how far left of optimal-f to size - does just as well as 'Leveraged Space' regardless of distributions, diversity and correlations in portf, etc. and all the other stuff his model purports to factor in… wish I had just unpackaged Handbook of… and put it on the shelf … unopened… unskimmed... unread... unapplied... hope this sample of one helps

Amen to that . [can I get a hallelujah ?]

150 Seconds Of "You Can't Handle The European Truth" From Kyle Bass | ZeroHedge

Straddle, I trade full time …have traded intraday full time for years and the markets typically look ‘dead’ to me. (I love sheer parabolic :rofl: ). But, even though they are what I consider ‘dead’ these days, I still would not advise someone to trade futures without being able to stay with it real time… maybe small positions in mini’s … …but I do have a couple of 10:1 leveraged accounts that could be traded by someone in the situation you described. One of them is currently being used, along with other automated systems in other accounts, to exploit the 2 – 8 AM Eastern time period in FX – a time most US traders wouldn’t be at work anyways…. This way uses 3 hour charts and can be looked at just one or two times a day. I typically spend about 15 minutes net in the account per day near lunch or afternoon break. Most of that time is used referring to sizing spreadsheet and almost zero time in analysis – once I get the next size figured out, I often just flash click orders near (old fashioned) SR’s and targets near eyeball ratios…etc . ie For these accounts it’s not cost effective for me to do much ‘homework’, but developing traders could do all the ‘homework’ they want and / or have time for in the evening or early morning. … like.... I’m ‘off work’ and on ‘automation’ at that time of night, but for someone in this situation this way would really be conducive to order placement during the asian session, ie just before most US bedtimes and then he wouldn’t have to look at it again until next night (or first coffee break at work ) The way trades 16 FX instruments and typically is in an average of about 10 positions. Holding time in positions ranges from minutes to weeks with the good trades typically lasting at least 2 or 3 days +. I use a ‘clean’ price chart (but it does have one indicator in lower panel). I use stops in only about 15% of the trades. Risk of ruin is minimal. It uses small, progressive size scaling (ie pyramiding via declining size with each with-trend entry and increasing size with each contra-trend entry). Exits are managed via resting ( limit and (lazy) trailing stop) orders and if they are filled in alignment with my projections of PA and targets and price is still nearby when I come in to the account in the afternoon, then I tend to go ahead and manually get all out the rest of the position - but with some extra (home)work one could step out of positions more incrementally and profitably (maybe). Point is - it’s doable for someone in a situation similar to the one you illustrated above. The way/account I described is up over 40% every year for last 4 years… and over 60% ytd this year… with peak historical unrealized p/l at -15%(under the current sizing algos) - and that state lasted less than a two weeks… usually unrealized p/l goes to +- - 3% then comes back… ...since we all only have a few more until the end of the world... ya'll have a great weekend. :missy: btw: born on 11/16/07 ... today is my 5th TL birthday ... wonder how many lives I've screwed up ? not a one... they screwed their own lives up... wonder how many lives I've enhanced? not a one... they enhanced their own lives

I am stupid [enough chars yet?]

Start Trading Now! Truth is Treason in an Empire of Lies - Ron Paul's Farewell Address to Congress - BlackListedNews.com

but Tams - it's "FREE" ! :rofl:

An Elliotician asks another Elliotician "Is an Ending Diagonal completed?"

Rande, I need to point out that some of your anecdotes lose you a lot of readers… maybe they’re readers you don’t want anyway ... example...I am in full agreement with the balance of your article after that opening anecdote . But if this anecdote gives me pause, I can only imagine what some of the smart people do... Check this - "...somewhere along the line..." and "...sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until... ", even "...vortex" are more signs of mental fatigue than they are 'archetypal' or even ‘emotional’ issues. Mental / decision fatigue = “In decision making and psychology, decision fatigue refers to the deteriorating quality of decisions made by an individual, after a long session of decision making.”[1][2] Decision fatigue can lead to a reduced ability to make rational trade-offs, decision paralysis, impulse purchasing, and impaired self-regulation. “Decision fatigue can result not only in fast and careless decisions but even in decision paralysis, where no decision is made at all.”[6] “Each decision you make and the more choices you make throughout the day, the harder it gets for your brain to continue to make decisions. The result is that towards the end of the day when you're low on mental energy, you're more likely to either give in to impulses or avoid making decisions altogether. The worst part is that, often, none of us are aware of how mentally tired we are just from all the little or big choices we make throughout the day.”Newspaper article. “Ego depletion is the idea that self-control or willpower is an exhaustible resource that can be used up.[1] When that energy is low, mental activity that requires self-control is impaired. In other words, expending one's self-control impairs the ability to control oneself later on.” …and yes, I could see where you could build a convincing case that susceptibility to mental fatigue will be greater when the real issues of the article have not been dealt with. In the end, I much prefer your ‘solutions’ to the pop.sike bs fix it quick lists like: making lists, making important decisions early in the day, positive attitude, keep your glucose levels up, brain games, “positive mood stimulus” yada yada. ... and the trade.sike bs fixes like: stop trading for the day, etc etc... yada yada In my experience, your protocol ultimately does not go nearly far enough in developing toughness because it emphasizes the brains and mind way too much. For example, really thorough trader training works directly with the internal costs of learning to kill. The word “decide” shares Latin etymological roots with “homicide,” meaning “to cut down” or “to kill,” …and loss, in general, looms larger when decision fatigue sets in. … ( this final paragraph was a fat pitch, Rande… you should be able to ding / get all of it one with one of your arche’s :spam: ) Zdo Deeper decision / mental fatigue reading at https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:QF0VCIiYC8wJ:www.carlsonschool.umn.edu/assets/71712.pdf+decision+fatigue+exhausts+self-regulatory+resources&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-4plSN-h4zNaKqHI8on6iCcOwx48aLwdyf-CGppOpX2WQKGW_SuN9fTJ3cYZ5iXKurPTjmP4RASWv0fSfNBcxpf5zS-EkgQjW5OXVFaez-YAtktUfvAYI05Ifd9jFZALfyN2Z&sig=AHIEtbQ9yPybUka4NrJ-UZLv8NtV18ZEJA

Unclumping Take all the struggling traders and put them it a big struggling trader clump. Call in the experts (from forums, in our case) to assess and advise. And they come - called or not . And each of them tends to bring a single causation hypothesis with a single focused solution. For purposes of illustration, let’s narrow it to two categories – keeping in mind though, this two way categorization is far from comprehensive. Our first set of advisors preaches the following - generally: Quality plan Discipline Quality plan Discipline Quality plan. Just keep trying to stick to the plan over and over until… Suppress emotions… ’Trading psychology’ is useless (… and they will come right up in a trading psychology thread to tell you so over and over and over, too ). Essentially, if they don’t have an emotional component to deal with in their trading - no one does. Use your mind to box off your mind and be done with it! Our second set of advisors preaches the following – generally: The mind can NOT use the mind to box off the mind. Emotions implicitly work with(in) the brain to co-create the ”trader's mind”. Everyone can use trading therapy – but Especially if you come to the game with pre-existing fear ‘triggerability’ to non life threatening events … and/or Especially if ‘uncertainty’ quickly degrades your performance. You HAVE to find ways to work with emotions (and more)... Let’s take all the struggling traders and de-clump them. Some of them do not pass the threshold of susceptibility to fears, emotions, etc. Some of them do just need edge development only. Another segment of struggling traders does pass the threshold of susceptibility to fears, emotions, etc. They need ‘trading therapy’ - and an edge too. For the first category, DbPheonix http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/9278-your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise-25.html#post157383 is not the most blatant example of the first category advisors in this forum; nor, in real life, do I think he really take such a completely extreme position re: ‘trading psychology’, and for sure, he doesn’t chronically come right up in a trading psychology thread to tell you so over and over and over – he’s simply the first one to pop into my mind today. Yes, I’m drawing heavily on Rande-Speak in the description of the second category as, in this forum, he has developed lexicon and descriptions of these processes (and offers a niche protocol for recovery). If you’re not familiar with him, just search on Rande Howell to get his own take. Not pigeonholing either one- Both guys are just being used as situational representatives for illustrative purposes only. (If I have harmed you, please forgive me.) As I said before, this two set categorization is far from complete. Three sets may be more accurate. Completely different categorizations may be indicated. The point being made is that we need to de-clump ‘struggling traders’ and stop intra thread fighting about multiple categories when usually the OP has already limited the scope to one of the ‘categories’. A not very extreme but still smelly example of this categorizations clusterfkn I'm trying to persuade us to avoid is at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/14649-blind-spot-traders-review-mirror.html (and btw noobs - If you’re not able to immediately ascertain which category you’re in –start in the second one. :grin:)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-11/cp-rst110912.php Note to self – in the last paragraph of the abstract is an excellent extension of the ‘good’ reasoning and rationality we have been exposed to in this thread … “magically …. the brutish process of natural selection will be unnecessary.”

TheDude, Thanks. I’m kinda slow but finally getting it. To you - "TA is charts" (with maybe some extra squigglies and lines)… a rather narrowed ,neurotic (according to Sigmund :razz: ) definition To us, TA is charts - plus “other tools” , other representations (visual and beyond) of information to include ticker tapes, doms, etc etc. with which to make trading ‘decisions’… For most I think you'll find it's more a matter of being as inclusive and realistic as possible, instead of "moving on" to protect a cow ...actually, some guys opinion is TA... it's a very small statistical sample. ... because it provides no information with which to make a trading 'decision'.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-indicators/4504-quick-ma.html hth

TheDude, re: "Take a look - traders at work. Note they have some charts in the background, but they are not the focal point of what they are looking at..... ...and This guy has something to say..." etc. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/markets/14627-what-real-what-not-technical-analysis-2.html#post165971 Still not clear what you're arguing about. You said that. Thx. * or auditory... or vibratory :rofl:

TkD, Here is some hard easy language that may make it easier for you to find answers to your questions. hth [LegacyColorValue = true]; { Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average } inputs: Price( numericseries ), EffRatioLength( numericsimple ), FastAvgLength( numericsimple ), { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 } SlowAvgLength( numericsimple ) ; { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 } { Eff = Efficiency } variables: NetChg( 0 ), TotChg( 0 ), EffRatio( 0 ), ScaledSFSqr( 0 ), SlowAvgSF( 2 / ( SlowAvgLength + 1 ) ), FastAvgSF( 2 / ( FastAvgLength + 1 ) ), SFDiff( FastAvgSF - SlowAvgSF ) ; { Eff = Efficiency, SF = Smoothing Factor } if CurrentBar = 1 then fKaufmanAMA = Price else begin NetChg = AbsValue( Price - Price[ EffRatioLength ] ) ; TotChg = Summation( AbsValue( Price - Price[1] ), EffRatioLength ) ; if TotChg > 0 then EffRatio = NetChg / TotChg else EffRatio = 0 ; { note that EffRatio is somewhat similar to RSI } ScaledSFSqr = Square( SlowAvgSF + EffRatio * SFDiff ) ; fKaufmanAMA = fKaufmanAMA[1] + ScaledSFSqr * ( Price - fKaufmanAMA[1] ) ; end ; { ** Copyright (c) 1991-2003 TradeStation Technologies, Inc. All rights reserved. ** ** TradeStation reserves the right to modify or overwrite this analysis technique with each release

Precisely!. ............... - almost "reason" ("rationality" , etc) are always there... always in process at some level of quality ... and it's very easy to degrade it below functional or 'usability' levels ...so wouldn't "Quality reasoning emerges out of an emotional state I call impartiality." be slightly more accurate than "Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality." and .. another assumption that is being passed around herein is that we are immune from instincts... if only... ...the more that 'cogni' chronically masks and obscures access to 'instincts', the less adaptable and resilient one really is...

Question: "What is your job?" Answer: "Success" Next question: "What are your qualifications?" Answer: "Failure"

well you're stuck with it now bubba everything on the internet is true

TheDude, Missed seeing your post earlier... Prove what? Randomize an SMA length (from 10 to 200) and run it on 'charts' * of + 30 instruments ‘showing’ 2500 bars each At least 5% of the price APPROACHES to the MA will ‘hold’ and ‘turn price away’ 5% beats the snot out of .0023148 % … doesn't "prove" much … but sufficiently proves "it” … resistance to closure will take you further than you can imagine… ... going further How can a central tendency, such as an SMA, (which lags or is incorrectly right shifted in most charts / representations by half the number of periods in the MA length (and an EMA lags by 2/(P+1) ie. ~1/3 number of periods)) sometimes provide clues to where price will be turned away / ‘supported’ or ‘resisted’? imo ,it can’t…. and also doesn’t make much sense. But if you observe (visually or quantitatively) and id the slope / angle of a ‘swing’ / wave’ / movement , you can ‘learn’ which central tendency lengths correlates well with those angles to produce the ‘turn aways’ and vary your central tendency parameters accordingly. (...and, again, is it really the central tendency doing it? Doubtful. ) More likely the central tendency of the ‘optimal’ length is just doing a pretty good job of tracking one side of the angular ‘channel’ being formed by price’s ‘oscillations’ within the ‘channel’ (Why does price ‘oscillate’ within ‘channels’ around ‘value’ *? Don’t know. Don’t care. Ask Dalton and Co. or some other auction theorist, of some anti 'auction theorist, or Mitsubishi, or even WHY? himself ) This type of stupid TA Too much work for you? Not aligned with your aptitudes? Not interesting enough? +60% accuracy not good enough for you? Any and All of the above objections are ok. I completely understand. "Find your own way" zdo Those are not fundamentals. They too become technicals. They are news events revealing quantity snapshots that may be used to exclaim quality fundamentals… the convenience with which one can include plots of them on a ‘chart’ makes it that much easier for the information to become ‘technified’ in many minds… as DBP says “the idea is to profit from asymmetrical order flow”. Real order flow work is not mentally possible (or not fascinating enough, etc ) for many, so they have to infer, speculate, project using old fashioned (and all these newly created) ‘technicals’ … “predicting the future is hard, especially if it hasn’t happened yet” yogi bera Have a great weekend all. * why do I use so many ‘ ‘ ie single quotes around words? Bcse there is something ridiculous , something off, about those ‘’ words… something that needs to be questioned… not just accepted as is… especially going from a 'writer' to a 'reader'...

i am so glad to have finally found a thread that is exempt from einstein's blurb about insanity

TheDude re; "BTW - he was talking about my definition of TA, not yours!!)" Check again. The distinction you are making is "Not Real" All these “definitions” - yours too - are subsumed under wrbtrader’s ‘definition. Rephrasing his def slightly - TA is when a trader opens a chart or other visual representation of a tradable instrument and then makes a trade decision based upon any information they get from that representation All 3 of the 'types' of TA’s DBP ‘defined’ do that – including your’s… Hierarchies aren’t lateral. zdo

Release? [The message you have entered is too short. Please...]

wrbtrader, that’s just beautiful. (… but probably not to the indicator haters…sad) Not entirely accurate… more accurate would be something like ‘logically sound, fixed rule TA does not work alone’. Few believe me when I say , returns on TA with selective logical defiance at adaptive times are not random… (and it should be noted that most beginners can’t just skip to that stage… nor is it easy to 'code' ) :helloooo: More splendid wisdom. Let me go ahead and take it even further ... on over the top as usual… beware anyone who claims to be disclosing ‘everything’ about his trading approach. He may be really trying but it can’t be done by anyone who is not gifted and skilled in authentic transmission. (which also requires a fully prepared recipient, btw) . 'Mentors' who are 'teaching' trading = fkn nonsense. I don’t even try. Best rant I’ve seen in a long time. Thanks.

:jadedface: Thanks. …and yet – each and every wave in the oceans ‘tastes’ of the oceans …tick tock... luckily, TA has ‘slightly’ better accuracy than 1 in 43200 (seconds) … :haha: can you imagine being fooled by randomness 43199 times out of 43200 tries ? from the film Argo Blasting TA is no more of effective ‘curtail’ than is lampooning the Hollywood industry. Blasting TA via logic doesn’t stop or help anyone… the money still keeps coming in…

Thx. for me, 1.245 would do just fine re 1.2 Instead of "Can it...? " My question would be "Will it... in the next 2 - 3 weeks?" By end of 11/12, my active short bias starts dropping pretty fast ... almost fully dissolved by ~ year end...