zdo

:o Just skimmed your post and quickly…The weekly chart http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/2478/hnxweekly.png is the best reference chart and the best place to start your count is the high in early 2007…clean, ‘classic’ 5 wave down into early 2009…‘classic’ 3 wave correction up into early 4th quarter 2009…then 1st wave down into end of 2009…sideways wave 2 correction ‘up’ into spring 2010… extending, strong 3rd wave down into the end of 2011…an (alternation example ? maybe...) up correction into spring of 2012…and now it is in a 5th wave down… Will leave the VNI weekly chart at http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/7451/vniweekly.png as an exercise... curiously, in my glancing ‘count’at it – in same since time’07 counts are all corrective action instead of bearish impulse like the HNX weekly. Which leads to… Tip: Don’t attempt to trade Elliott wave until you have studied Glenn Neely (Mastering Elliott Wave book best place to start). An equivalent way of saying same = don’t attempt to trade Elliott wave until you are a master of corrective patterns… the impulse waves take care of themselves… that is, unless you’re a paralyzed analyst who can’t put on positions consistently… a behavior pattern that seems to be endemic with ‘serious’, exclusively ewave traders, btw… Tip: If using the weekly chart, a monthly not needed and daily not needed. (and they are also not suitable ‘fractals’of each other – god I cringe using that word). Just do counts on your weekly . If you are personally sold on shorter time frame/minute (pronunciation = mi noot) counting, then use one other chart in the range of 3 hr (or 4 or ½ session). I personally blve Elliott wave is only applicable to ‘social studies’ of longer time frames… that eWave is a special application of cycle theory… ie in my experience there is no ewave sequence that could not be better understood if seen in terms of summations of cycles… plus summations of cycles also give a much better forewarning of “elliott” wave sequences that go berserk and not do what an elliott wave pattern is supposed to do next. Hth (actually I just hope it doesn’t harm anyone)

Guidelines for reading zdo posts 1) Take peyote* early one Saturday morning 2) Wait until it starts coming on, then go find all posts by zdo in TL http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/search.php?searchid=924521 (hopefully that’s a static not dynamic, link) 3)Begin reading them in any order… your (mis)guided psychonautic experience will begin shortly this thread is dedicated to Mitsubishi and.... and ... and... and...you know who you are Happy Thanksgiving All ! * any good long lasting halluc will do … shrooms, lsd…etc

Yea yea when confidence is zero you have already committed suicide. Our strengths are generally stronger than we think…Yada yada. But I didn’t say that. I said in the beginning, referring to, accessing, "progressively shift"ing to, nurturing, (whatever) confidence is a waste of time and energy – practically. I’m saying stay focused on your courage in the beginning. Take no measures of or check your confidence levels. It will emerge on it’s own, in its own time and way. ... “you should nurture and support it” is falling for a “psychological trick (or something)” …you faked us out … thought you wanted to get away from ‘psychological’ Furthermore here’s some more non consensus / non psychological bulsht. “sustained performance” implies that consistency is the path to consistency. It ain’t. Failure and learning how to recover faster and faster and faster is the path to consistency. Not very confidence inspiring I know - but at least it’s not fkn ‘psychological’ly sound

Thanks. tN I also have issues building with the limitations of the psychology word in ‘Trading Psychology’ forums. Please consider this as my 2nd ( or 3rd or ...) request to rename the whole sub–forum to Trader Self Development (or something like that) tN, You rarely put energy into my questions to your new threads...I take it you prefer I butt out … so I’ll just slap down some sht and get out…hope it isn’t too ‘psychological’ for you. Yes you need to “flip”, but be warned! - A contrived flip to “how much…state” is false , phony, artificial ...and it's unsustainable. Authentic confidence emerges naturally and only from repeating actions and observing and assimilating successes. Practically - utilize any ‘planned’, arranged confidence you discover yourself doing (or even being tempted to even think about generating) as a tip to self that your whole inner approach is fktup and setup for failure . Confidence – forgetaboutit! Confidence is of Zero! NONE! Nada! benefit to beginning and struggling traders. So if you have no confidence and it is disastrous to conjure confidence up, what do you apply instead???????? When you have no confidence to rely on – rely on courage. To start, to begin an endeavor before you have any authentic emergent confidence you use courage to start and to persevere when a venture doesn't supply obvious and immediate success

N, You used the word Form in your title Then you said nothing more about it. I don't understand. What happened? zdo this post sponsored by Mystics and Mistakesby Sadguru

:thumbs up: ...first define the environment

Maybe this is the wrong thread to say something like this … it is marginally vendor positive but !!! … there is something to be said for buying the Next Big Things. If you do it enough times you come to realize there is no Next Big Thing … and if you really do it enough times you come to realize there is no Next Big Thing that you don’t immediately understand the ‘thinking’, the ‘model’, even the ‘techniques’ behind what is being exploited. You’d get to where you could even ‘reverse engineer’ most of the Next Big Things. You’d get to where you can immediately tell if this Next Big Thing would help you further develop and ‘sophisticate’ the ways you have come to know work for you because of your own aptitudes and interests. However, if you’ve lost your curiosity…

BHS, Vince has been a very costly 'associate'. After having spent more money than I care to divulge on programming and testing for optimum – f… and then even more for leveraged space programming, etc. I can safely say for my own purposes I should have remained more singularily focused on an “adaptive approach to … chronomorphic distributions”. Practically, getting a handle on the “morphing” is far more important than dialing in (some theoretical) improvements on “MPT”… so re: sizing. Over the long haul, the original ‘optimal-e’ work I did way back when -which basically makes a sufficiently good guess on how far left of optimal-f to size - does just as well as 'Leveraged Space' regardless of distributions, diversity and correlations in portf, etc. and all the other stuff his model purports to factor in… wish I had just unpackaged Handbook of… and put it on the shelf … unopened… unskimmed... unread... unapplied... hope this sample of one helps

Amen to that . [can I get a hallelujah ?]

150 Seconds Of "You Can't Handle The European Truth" From Kyle Bass | ZeroHedge

Straddle, I trade full time …have traded intraday full time for years and the markets typically look ‘dead’ to me. (I love sheer parabolic :rofl: ). But, even though they are what I consider ‘dead’ these days, I still would not advise someone to trade futures without being able to stay with it real time… maybe small positions in mini’s … …but I do have a couple of 10:1 leveraged accounts that could be traded by someone in the situation you described. One of them is currently being used, along with other automated systems in other accounts, to exploit the 2 – 8 AM Eastern time period in FX – a time most US traders wouldn’t be at work anyways…. This way uses 3 hour charts and can be looked at just one or two times a day. I typically spend about 15 minutes net in the account per day near lunch or afternoon break. Most of that time is used referring to sizing spreadsheet and almost zero time in analysis – once I get the next size figured out, I often just flash click orders near (old fashioned) SR’s and targets near eyeball ratios…etc . ie For these accounts it’s not cost effective for me to do much ‘homework’, but developing traders could do all the ‘homework’ they want and / or have time for in the evening or early morning. … like.... I’m ‘off work’ and on ‘automation’ at that time of night, but for someone in this situation this way would really be conducive to order placement during the asian session, ie just before most US bedtimes and then he wouldn’t have to look at it again until next night (or first coffee break at work ) The way trades 16 FX instruments and typically is in an average of about 10 positions. Holding time in positions ranges from minutes to weeks with the good trades typically lasting at least 2 or 3 days +. I use a ‘clean’ price chart (but it does have one indicator in lower panel). I use stops in only about 15% of the trades. Risk of ruin is minimal. It uses small, progressive size scaling (ie pyramiding via declining size with each with-trend entry and increasing size with each contra-trend entry). Exits are managed via resting ( limit and (lazy) trailing stop) orders and if they are filled in alignment with my projections of PA and targets and price is still nearby when I come in to the account in the afternoon, then I tend to go ahead and manually get all out the rest of the position - but with some extra (home)work one could step out of positions more incrementally and profitably (maybe). Point is - it’s doable for someone in a situation similar to the one you illustrated above. The way/account I described is up over 40% every year for last 4 years… and over 60% ytd this year… with peak historical unrealized p/l at -15%(under the current sizing algos) - and that state lasted less than a two weeks… usually unrealized p/l goes to +- - 3% then comes back… ...since we all only have a few more until the end of the world... ya'll have a great weekend. :missy: btw: born on 11/16/07 ... today is my 5th TL birthday ... wonder how many lives I've screwed up ? not a one... they screwed their own lives up... wonder how many lives I've enhanced? not a one... they enhanced their own lives

I am stupid [enough chars yet?]

Start Trading Now! Truth is Treason in an Empire of Lies - Ron Paul's Farewell Address to Congress - BlackListedNews.com

but Tams - it's "FREE" ! :rofl:

An Elliotician asks another Elliotician "Is an Ending Diagonal completed?"

Rande, I need to point out that some of your anecdotes lose you a lot of readers… maybe they’re readers you don’t want anyway ... example...I am in full agreement with the balance of your article after that opening anecdote . But if this anecdote gives me pause, I can only imagine what some of the smart people do... Check this - "...somewhere along the line..." and "...sometimes I don’t even see the loss of rational thinking until... ", even "...vortex" are more signs of mental fatigue than they are 'archetypal' or even ‘emotional’ issues. Mental / decision fatigue = “In decision making and psychology, decision fatigue refers to the deteriorating quality of decisions made by an individual, after a long session of decision making.”[1][2] Decision fatigue can lead to a reduced ability to make rational trade-offs, decision paralysis, impulse purchasing, and impaired self-regulation. “Decision fatigue can result not only in fast and careless decisions but even in decision paralysis, where no decision is made at all.”[6] “Each decision you make and the more choices you make throughout the day, the harder it gets for your brain to continue to make decisions. The result is that towards the end of the day when you're low on mental energy, you're more likely to either give in to impulses or avoid making decisions altogether. The worst part is that, often, none of us are aware of how mentally tired we are just from all the little or big choices we make throughout the day.”Newspaper article. “Ego depletion is the idea that self-control or willpower is an exhaustible resource that can be used up.[1] When that energy is low, mental activity that requires self-control is impaired. In other words, expending one's self-control impairs the ability to control oneself later on.” …and yes, I could see where you could build a convincing case that susceptibility to mental fatigue will be greater when the real issues of the article have not been dealt with. In the end, I much prefer your ‘solutions’ to the pop.sike bs fix it quick lists like: making lists, making important decisions early in the day, positive attitude, keep your glucose levels up, brain games, “positive mood stimulus” yada yada. ... and the trade.sike bs fixes like: stop trading for the day, etc etc... yada yada In my experience, your protocol ultimately does not go nearly far enough in developing toughness because it emphasizes the brains and mind way too much. For example, really thorough trader training works directly with the internal costs of learning to kill. The word “decide” shares Latin etymological roots with “homicide,” meaning “to cut down” or “to kill,” …and loss, in general, looms larger when decision fatigue sets in. … ( this final paragraph was a fat pitch, Rande… you should be able to ding / get all of it one with one of your arche’s :spam: ) Zdo Deeper decision / mental fatigue reading at https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:QF0VCIiYC8wJ:www.carlsonschool.umn.edu/assets/71712.pdf+decision+fatigue+exhausts+self-regulatory+resources&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-4plSN-h4zNaKqHI8on6iCcOwx48aLwdyf-CGppOpX2WQKGW_SuN9fTJ3cYZ5iXKurPTjmP4RASWv0fSfNBcxpf5zS-EkgQjW5OXVFaez-YAtktUfvAYI05Ifd9jFZALfyN2Z&sig=AHIEtbQ9yPybUka4NrJ-UZLv8NtV18ZEJA

Unclumping Take all the struggling traders and put them it a big struggling trader clump. Call in the experts (from forums, in our case) to assess and advise. And they come - called or not . And each of them tends to bring a single causation hypothesis with a single focused solution. For purposes of illustration, let’s narrow it to two categories – keeping in mind though, this two way categorization is far from comprehensive. Our first set of advisors preaches the following - generally: Quality plan Discipline Quality plan Discipline Quality plan. Just keep trying to stick to the plan over and over until… Suppress emotions… ’Trading psychology’ is useless (… and they will come right up in a trading psychology thread to tell you so over and over and over, too ). Essentially, if they don’t have an emotional component to deal with in their trading - no one does. Use your mind to box off your mind and be done with it! Our second set of advisors preaches the following – generally: The mind can NOT use the mind to box off the mind. Emotions implicitly work with(in) the brain to co-create the ”trader's mind”. Everyone can use trading therapy – but Especially if you come to the game with pre-existing fear ‘triggerability’ to non life threatening events … and/or Especially if ‘uncertainty’ quickly degrades your performance. You HAVE to find ways to work with emotions (and more)... Let’s take all the struggling traders and de-clump them. Some of them do not pass the threshold of susceptibility to fears, emotions, etc. Some of them do just need edge development only. Another segment of struggling traders does pass the threshold of susceptibility to fears, emotions, etc. They need ‘trading therapy’ - and an edge too. For the first category, DbPheonix http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/9278-your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise-25.html#post157383 is not the most blatant example of the first category advisors in this forum; nor, in real life, do I think he really take such a completely extreme position re: ‘trading psychology’, and for sure, he doesn’t chronically come right up in a trading psychology thread to tell you so over and over and over – he’s simply the first one to pop into my mind today. Yes, I’m drawing heavily on Rande-Speak in the description of the second category as, in this forum, he has developed lexicon and descriptions of these processes (and offers a niche protocol for recovery). If you’re not familiar with him, just search on Rande Howell to get his own take. Not pigeonholing either one- Both guys are just being used as situational representatives for illustrative purposes only. (If I have harmed you, please forgive me.) As I said before, this two set categorization is far from complete. Three sets may be more accurate. Completely different categorizations may be indicated. The point being made is that we need to de-clump ‘struggling traders’ and stop intra thread fighting about multiple categories when usually the OP has already limited the scope to one of the ‘categories’. A not very extreme but still smelly example of this categorizations clusterfkn I'm trying to persuade us to avoid is at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/14649-blind-spot-traders-review-mirror.html (and btw noobs - If you’re not able to immediately ascertain which category you’re in –start in the second one. :grin:)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-11/cp-rst110912.php Note to self – in the last paragraph of the abstract is an excellent extension of the ‘good’ reasoning and rationality we have been exposed to in this thread … “magically …. the brutish process of natural selection will be unnecessary.”

TheDude, Thanks. I’m kinda slow but finally getting it. To you - "TA is charts" (with maybe some extra squigglies and lines)… a rather narrowed ,neurotic (according to Sigmund :razz: ) definition To us, TA is charts - plus “other tools” , other representations (visual and beyond) of information to include ticker tapes, doms, etc etc. with which to make trading ‘decisions’… For most I think you'll find it's more a matter of being as inclusive and realistic as possible, instead of "moving on" to protect a cow ...actually, some guys opinion is TA... it's a very small statistical sample. ... because it provides no information with which to make a trading 'decision'.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-indicators/4504-quick-ma.html hth

TheDude, re: "Take a look - traders at work. Note they have some charts in the background, but they are not the focal point of what they are looking at..... ...and This guy has something to say..." etc. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/markets/14627-what-real-what-not-technical-analysis-2.html#post165971 Still not clear what you're arguing about. You said that. Thx. * or auditory... or vibratory :rofl:

TkD, Here is some hard easy language that may make it easier for you to find answers to your questions. hth [LegacyColorValue = true]; { Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average } inputs: Price( numericseries ), EffRatioLength( numericsimple ), FastAvgLength( numericsimple ), { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 } SlowAvgLength( numericsimple ) ; { this input assumed to be a constant >= 1 } { Eff = Efficiency } variables: NetChg( 0 ), TotChg( 0 ), EffRatio( 0 ), ScaledSFSqr( 0 ), SlowAvgSF( 2 / ( SlowAvgLength + 1 ) ), FastAvgSF( 2 / ( FastAvgLength + 1 ) ), SFDiff( FastAvgSF - SlowAvgSF ) ; { Eff = Efficiency, SF = Smoothing Factor } if CurrentBar = 1 then fKaufmanAMA = Price else begin NetChg = AbsValue( Price - Price[ EffRatioLength ] ) ; TotChg = Summation( AbsValue( Price - Price[1] ), EffRatioLength ) ; if TotChg > 0 then EffRatio = NetChg / TotChg else EffRatio = 0 ; { note that EffRatio is somewhat similar to RSI } ScaledSFSqr = Square( SlowAvgSF + EffRatio * SFDiff ) ; fKaufmanAMA = fKaufmanAMA[1] + ScaledSFSqr * ( Price - fKaufmanAMA[1] ) ; end ; { ** Copyright (c) 1991-2003 TradeStation Technologies, Inc. All rights reserved. ** ** TradeStation reserves the right to modify or overwrite this analysis technique with each release

Precisely!. ............... - almost "reason" ("rationality" , etc) are always there... always in process at some level of quality ... and it's very easy to degrade it below functional or 'usability' levels ...so wouldn't "Quality reasoning emerges out of an emotional state I call impartiality." be slightly more accurate than "Reason emotes out of an emotional state I call impartiality." and .. another assumption that is being passed around herein is that we are immune from instincts... if only... ...the more that 'cogni' chronically masks and obscures access to 'instincts', the less adaptable and resilient one really is...

Question: "What is your job?" Answer: "Success" Next question: "What are your qualifications?" Answer: "Failure"

well you're stuck with it now bubba everything on the internet is true