zdo

The assault on PM’s … in the absence of signal, often… ... It may be more comfortable not to think about where we are headed. It may be more comfortable to believe we are operating safely inside "design parameters" ... ???'s Are peeps selling gold (etf's, etc) bcse they need the money… to meet margins, buy stocks, pay bills, ..., whatever… when people and institutions start running out of money, do they sell what there are buyers for instead of the crap with no bid ? Are actual holders of physical PM’s selling their inventories? Are physical and paper m’s any closer to the verge of breaking their link in price? Are PM's and longer term energy cost projections really that correlated? The new 'energy boom' is ... As perception management of energy extraction costs and supply goes, so goes PM's prices? I personally do not see any of the major ‘governments’ and central banks having anywhere near the control over their own bond markets anad that they hope you believe they have… I am thanking the FED for giving us time and cheap PM’s. Sub $24 USD for SI is what I've been (to add "patiently" would be bs ) waiting for... I hope it goes down even more... I like the high and swelling levels of open shorts in PM’s, especially SI… and plan to accumulate deep into May… and again in July… thx again bobc... but no thanks... I'm trading (literally) gold for silver,... ...instead of selling both and buying paper...like GS ( heck I'd buy puts on GS before I'd buy GS ... and ps - …no, I’m not a perma bull)

SUI, Before I go for the weekend… just wanted to let you know I haven’t forgotten about this topic I’ve been very busy… and even if I weren’t busy, I don’t know how far past Screen.vbHourglass the next installment would be … Although it will have utility for only a very limited few, I do want it to be of quality for them… (instead of more rant, etc… maybe I will have to rant - again - about what it isnt’ before I can get to ‘what it isz’… 'english' for outside accepted paradigms is difficult for me, etc.) so when? don't know...

No. What would I sell/exchange all the Silver for??? Thanks a lot. That really helped :rofl: ... "...this girl is on fi-yer..."

bobc, I can 't forget about 'inflation'... and 'deflation'... and both happening at the same time. How can I forget? bobc,help me forget :rofl: ... Re XAU/USD spec… I’m still right where I was a year ago… http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12545-good-time-buy-gold-again-2.html#post145216 actually re XAU/USD I don’t know. I don’t even care. But I am trading gold for silver…at an accelerating rate. Have a great weekend all…

SUIYA, Thanks. Had time to just skim them... I guess I look a little bit more at who is 'behind' the banks instead of ... and from the link The biggest lies are the easiest lies… Property rights ‘remain’ - but only paper now, … not ‘real’ anymore And same for the rule of law – effectively, it is degrading... very far, very fast … ie those two 'classics' definitely aren't enough to build and sustain a new or old norml...if they are now just caricatures :haha:… and I bet half of those who read this will project that I’ve always been this distrustful of the ‘social contract’…

… and in - short EJ … pretty much as planned … with some lag though…held longs longer than I thought I would (when I made the plan way back when), so, subjectively, the position reversal seems more abrupt than usual… …plus, keeping some powder dry for better limit entries. True spike not likely off this week’s action, etc… I’m planning a larger short on the EJ around late Oct so this trade may end up as a short bias, in and out affair until then… ie I’ll give the position a few weeks to wiggle, but after that it needs to perform or I lighten it considerably... ...fwiw noobs… in the long run it’s better to wait for the ‘trend’ (wotevrtfdatis) to really change… instead of combining ‘guessing’ and ‘fighting the trend’ and ‘timing’ and ___ all at once. I do about 3 or 4 of these ‘defiant’ against the trend position trades a year …and, year by year – win or lose – these trades have progressively become exercises more in ego observation, than exercises in ego stroking (and flagulation )…

charles hugh smith-The Eroding Premium on Truth and Trust Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis

david247, I’m sure you’re grateful we’re finally getting around to giving you all these high quality advice posts that you need… I’m quite confident it was worth your wait. ... hopefully they will at least help you sort out the oxymoronishness of the phrase "Forex Investor" Re: the "Paid Help for Newbie..." part, please find invoice enclosed. Terms: net 30 “.... If it doesn't grow, it doesn't compound...”

paraphrasing Pema Chodron - “Nothing really goes away ...until it teaches us what we need to know.”

BHS, ...and when you (happily) explain could you include an explaination in a little bit more depth why you "think it makes better sense to assume that the markets are always either random or non-random" . Thanks. zdo

As planned in Post #7, #8, etc. etc.... , I will get short a medium sized load EURJPY by somewhere around 4/12 – right up in the face of …plus lexus vs mbz ‘pricings’ … and infiniti vs bmw ‘pricings’ notwithstanding … and whatevertf that has to do with it… It could get ugly … may have to ‘stop out’ and wait for Oct 31 ish :missy:

mslk, First things first… "digging in" vs “ you have to be willing to sacrifice who you are for who you can become.” Dan Millman First things first… if your passion for trading is still high even in ‘failure’, then persist; ...else, get out. … and re “persist”, in my observations of many traders across the years … a losing trader works… develops… practices until he gets ‘it’ right (wot ) a trader transitioning from loser to winner works… develops… practices until he gets ‘it’ wrong a winning trader works… develops… practices until he can’t get ‘it’ wrong All the best... which ever way you go... zdo

( I think I've made some suggestions about this before...) Mini rant... That The Healthy Trader is a subforum of the Trading Psychology forum is a perfect example of how the paradigm of seeking 'cerebral cortex control downward' pervades and rules... surrepticitiously the structure is set up to reinforce it... and members will reactively step up to defend it... ... With just these 3 Free reports you could be trading by day's end

SUIYA, That rant was not the end. This will (maybe) go ‘somewhere’ for‘someone’. Instead of switching over to ‘talking head Q&A interview’ style, I had planned to continue from the end of the ‘rant’ on to alternatives - with about the same quantity of material as in the first post. But I'm taking on two atypical commitments this spring, so it may take a while to find time to write it up in a way that will really benefit at least one ‘someone’ ... …also, don’t be surprised if I jump to a new thread again… the ("creative", etc.) noise isn’t bad (or good or even far far off topic), but it is noise… and sometimes the best way to deal with it is to just pack up the gear and go play in a different joint… what a fkn prima donna…:haha: right? Your 3 am insight is … zdo

transition to http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/healthy-trader/16008-untitled-rant-about-trading-psychology.html#post177520 thx

Preface: This post and thread may be a waste of all our time! … Because those that get it don’t need to hear it and those that don’t get it aren’t going to get it from reading this or anything else! ie but for a few, this post and thread really is stupid … and also ‘not getting it’ doesn’t imply stupidity... ie ‘get it’ is more an accomplished ‘getting out of the way’ than it is ‘improved’ or new thinking and beliefs etc. and fyi, This content might stand on its own (as well as any of my content stands on its own :doh:) but many points made in this post are responses to SUIYA’s observations and positions in the (now aging) posts starting at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-2.html#post176122 ie this thread… same conversation, different pub… anyways here goes almost a rant… Excepting one or two, every post I have ever seen on the topic of ‘psychological’ – even those by our gurus who tell you us not to concern ourselves with psychology at all – is made “in the service of” maintaining and improving ‘cerebral cortex’ control ‘downward’ This control ‘downward’ is accomplished via two broad strategies. Broadly, one strategy is characterized by fleeing (and, to a certain extent, relinquishing on) any impediments to progress presented to the ‘cerebral cortex’ from below. Very briefly - strategy one is ostensibly anti – psychological. You can find it represented by an off –topic- ish post or two in virtually every psychology thread on the planet spraying the ‘you really have no need for trading psychology’ meme. These posts are often marked by intellectual arrogance. But if ever get a chance to relate to the actual people behind these posts, it may seem at first they are choosing to relinquish… but if you press at all, their fleeing will be revealed. Basically, Strategy One is- Don’t fix it. Flee it. Keep any and all content from those ‘sub’ cerebral regions out. Isolate from and/or deny it. Man up and squash down any budding awareness of your own myriad reaction patterns with renewed focus on finding and/or developing an edge… there is where the promised land is to be found. However, the underlying paradigm still pervades! The trader utilizing strategy one is still doing whatever is necessary to maintain and improve ‘cerebral cortex’ control ‘downward’ . Broadly- and Not nearly so briefly - strategy two is characterized by attacking (and, to a certain extent, embracing) with the tools available to the ‘cerebral cortex’ [with that term, herein I’m using a brain based, not necessarily a purely psychological, nomenclature– feel free to substitute other labeling structures for the processes if you need. These social science fields are even more jargon laden than trading is ] . Do these three things. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-2.html#post176489 Not picking on SUIYA personally at all … we could just as easily refer to the one of the thousands of other ‘trading plan, stick to it, etc’ posts (like at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/markets/16000-when-quit.html#post177476, etc)…more just referring to that conversation as it has unfolded… and If you’re having trouble doing these three things, then (trading) psychology directs us to temporarily do other things to control and calm the limbic, hind, and entero brains so you can get back to doing those three things. The paradigm implies that we just need to keep searching for ways to improve on minimizing the effects of ANY content that keeps traders from doing those three things. Identify where you lack control ‘downward’ then find or develop a technique to ‘fix’ that lack of control… The broad goal of ‘trading psychology’ are to find ‘scientific’ ways to drive ‘everyone’ to proficiency ( / or at least ‘anyone’ in that great 80% who will work) . You might have to redo your ‘mindset’, your emotional ‘control’, your ‘panic and less’ triggers – but you will have to do whatever it takes to get those ‘sub’ brains under control… and, virtually every ‘trading psychology’ post ( excepting some of those from ‘noobs with a problem and near the end of their rope’ ), implies or attempts to imply that we are right at the cusp of it… ie re those three things, we’re so close we really only have to ‘just do it’ … but if that were true, trading would not have such a high turnover / failure rate. Actually, from my perspective at least, only a tiny percentage starts at or works their way to the cusp of ‘consistent success’. 80% are quite far away from the cusp … they couldn’t ‘just do it’ even if they had round the clock mega support from a whole frikn team of professionals. That whole thread and, in particular, the closing question in SUIYA’s post ” what specific behaviour modification or training do you think can be used, or should be discussed.?” at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-4.html#post176789 showcases the depth and power of the ‘in the service of’ the cerebral control paradigm, Almost anywhere you turn, from ‘controlled’ research to the really soft pop psycho contributions, either explicitly or just ‘laying’ under the surface, the remedies by way of all the techniques is to give the ‘cerebral cortex’ more control – even if it’s only more control over “thinking you have more control over things than you really do”. (SUIYA, I couldn’t access the BBC video link at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-3.html#post176535'>http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-3.html#post176535 so I’ll just rashly ‘project’ and react…here goes ) Even ‘Neuroscience’ with its tradition of distrust for ‘psychology’ with its ‘new’ brain plasticity tricks, stochastic dynamics, fractal development of grooves and ridges falls in line with the paradigm – the orientation is still to do whatever it takes to get the stuff below the ‘cerebral cortex’ under control… Show me one modern self or assisted help ‘modality’ that isn’t under the spell of this paradigm… (show me one I can’t twist around to make it look like it’s under the spell of the paradigm – ie if you don’t 'get it', nothing I can say here can really help you see it…) … while staying close to ‘neurological’ terminology, here’s some half hearted, in my best plain english, attempts towards seeing how the paradigm ‘structures’ problems … For problems located in /manifested from the cerebral cortex, one plain English label is ‘worries’, typically thinking marked by recurring or looping-like processes that includes 'thoughts' that would be better off excluded and lack of access to thoughts that should be included, etc. For problems ‘located’ in /manifested from the limbic system , let’s use anxiety as a plain English, catch all label for this aspect For problems ‘located’ in /manifested from hindbrain based physical reactions, for plain English, let’s use the word ‘strain’ (I’m reserving the word stress for broader uses.) Whether it’s difficulty keeping on track with doing those three trading things or some family dysfunction on Dr. Phil, or whatever, we tend to make our problems ‘located’ in / defined by one of these three – worries, anxiety, or strain – and we tend to try to up-regulate learning ‘mechanisms’ to better adapt to our approbative or affirmative interactions with the environment, yada fkn yada fix it - so the ‘top’ is not disturbed in any way… so it can get about the business of trading and living a happy life (dukka notwithstanding ) …meanwhile - I think even though we’re ‘modern’ and in (the )possession of strong egos, all but the real crazies have joined a matrix y borg that considers nothing else than ‘control downward’ in its ‘psychological’ (and psychiatric, etc.) paradigms. No matter from which plain English category a problem is best illustrated, and no matter whether a modality specializes on just one of them or throws a myriad of techniques at a problem, a trading or general therapist believes that it is best to guide the thoughts so that any biometrics (from below) wouldn’t suddenly go off the chart. Be careful, don’t push too hard… For worries, no matter how in depth the therapy work, no matter which model or techniques, no matter if the work is self or ‘program’ directed(like positscience, etc), the therapand is looking for enough ‘neuroplasticity’ progress to at least change the ‘mindset’ etc etc … to wrest control back from those ‘sub’ brain influences. For anxieties – find a therapist who specializes in emotional (brain) issues and rebalancing … do safe place imagery interrupts… relaxation response training … gradual imagery of an upcoming ‘threat’ … throw in learning to meditate … basically increase your EQ (the mind can heal the heart… yada yada) For strains (ranging from daily tension to major hormonal dumps) - do some cardio and strength training … do yoga … do biofeedback… For any and all issues – behavior mod your ‘discipline’ … do some NLP… some hypnosis (or some dehypnosis ) ...do brain wave entrainment… make a brain power plan… tweak your diet … add some nootropics … …if there’s one way, there are 10000 ways… I can’t list them all. Also, most of the ways mentioned above are ‘pop’ oriented… I hardly mention any of the multitude of more ‘clinical trial’ and high tech approaches… ( and,btw, Csikszentmihalyi’s flow work challenges the paradigm to a degree. He was blessed with insights into the ‘what’ – but, beyond suggesting a distinctive ‘different attituding’ approach, (that unfortunately still relies on ‘cerebral cortex’ control ) he really offers little in the way of ‘how’ ) The eternal hope offered by the paradigm via ANY modality - If you do a lot of ‘practice’ at your prescribed modality, ANY loss of control on the brains ‘below’ the cerebral can be overcome, and then you can get on with the business of seamlessly doing those three trading things… yada dafkn yadada (again, SUIYA, I couldn’t access the BBC video link at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/15854-norman-welz-developing-trader-s-brain-3.html#post176535 so I’ll just ‘project’ and react…but most likely they did pay more due to the whole, the other ‘brains’ at work… and then dealt with some description of how if brains have difficulty resolving signal in noise conditions, they just change time constants. etc etc, …and then branched out to some of the supplemental things neuroscience is finding and contributing to getting everything under cerebral control ) … but Reality check! Attaining authentic, reliably ‘stable’, new neural plasticity requires rehearsals with challenges. Rehearsals must progressively ratchet up to 400 to 500 accurate ‘answers’ per hour! Lasting plasticity changes in the brains takes months of practice. That many! That much! The training has to be designed to target accuracy and speed. Just as importantly, the ‘with challenges’ part means the challenges have to really matter to the brains! It has to be “serious” and important… Again - without rehearsals plus challenges, no new authentic ‘plasticity’ develops (to be a little bit mean to some of the common assumptions about this “It takes a tiny fraction of a second to ‘change your mind’. It takes less time than that for it to change back” :razz: ) Attaining authentic, reliably ‘stable’, new plasticity requires aggressive individual, specific, intervention. Every trader / patient actually brings his own sets of diffuse brain ‘damages’. Science is no where near making making ANY modality universal and universally appealing… Attaining authentic, reliably ‘stable’, new plasticity is controlled by ‘sustained motivation’ (not reliant on the it must be important to the brains elements mentioned above, btw)… it is imperative that one consciously and conscientiously practices… and not just plain practice … but practice to get better. (The Csikszentmihalyi 'way' demonstrates how few will actually and repetitively stick to the levels of deliberate practice required - whether a great coach, psychologist, mentor is present or not… ie researchers’ don’t know, ‘they’ don’t even have a clue why the few who are motivated to practice don't have Intention Deficit Disorder, actually how much truly deliberative practice they are ‘compulsed’ to endure) I’m not optimistic that you or anyone else is going to pull it off! In straight bhvr mod terms, please please show us a way a ‘trading” (or any other kind of) psychologist’ can ‘guide’ and ‘assist’ a trader to do all of those requirements. Here’s how I experience the paradigm - collectively we have essentially swung towards the limits of excursion of ‘psycho influences physio’ … “mind over matter” … and accompanying illusions… and again, one key marker to both these strategies and all their emergent specialties for ‘fixing’ issues – all of them are done ‘in the service of’ ‘cerebral cortex’ control ‘downward’. With Strategy one or Strategy two - The reality is you could spoon feed the 80% cohort with proven systems and most of them still do not have a chance in hell of surviving, let alone thriving, at trading... All the face to face and online sessions, blogs, articles, and threads are filled with prescribed ways to apply Strategy one and shut these ‘distractions’ / obstacles out of awareness. All the face to face and online sessions, blogs, articles, and threads are also filled with millions of different tips and prescribed ways to apply Strategy two ... if either had even a slight chance of really working then I'd say keep 'funding the research', but ... ... The content above is a flawed and incomplete handling of a pervasive social conditioning that blinds both helpers and therapands to all seeking of change in the service of cerebral control. I don’t dare suggest turning the paradigm on its head. That would trigger too many literal misunderstandings about reversals and directions. If you are still trying to figure out how to succeed at strategy one or two, then keep ‘trying’ – you may be one of those that has to exhaust and collapse before you’re ready to …

more wtf is the new normal ? From Charles Gave of GaveKal.com

Hey guys, This thread slipped my mind for a few days… then … then some ‘new’ projects/commitments took precedence… and today I don't have ready english for what I need to say … ie I will address those posts (from weeks ago now) as soon as I can...meanwhile... (trick) question: if you think of this thread and Csikszentmihalyi at the same time, what comes up for you? Have a great weekend all, zdo

. [whitened and off the page somewhere out there on the radio on a warm spring day in 19...]

Quoted almost in its entirety. It could have gone into a EU debt thread … or a gold thread… or not just another release thread… or etc etc... btw I'll stick with Finland on my guess Money is Gold | Fred Sheehan | Safehaven.com

CCK [cholecystokinin levels may be just as 'important' as test... or cort...]

Some Cypression thoughts... …Amid rumors the ‘russians’ have already “used an array of techniques to access their money” - before the cyp banks ‘re-open ‘ (makes sense … it’s better to take a surreptitious 1-2% haircut than a ‘legal’ 20 – 40% haircut) Graham Summers neocynic ‘Tyler Durden’ Is This The Diabolical "Master Plan" Behind Crushing Europe's Depositors | Zero Hedge You probably already heard about this… (and most will continue to trust tightly to "all is well") http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9952979/Cyprus-bail-out-savers-will-be-raided-to-save-euro-in-future-crises-says-eurozone-chief.html Berthold Brecht

More Get Real (which 78.6% will find a way to disagree with...) re: that “(long time ago) great trader” With broad strokes - instead of lingering with you to discuss the pro’s and con’s of real vs sim, I’d bet that “(long time ago) great trader” was quickly getting ready to steer the conversation context back to proper capitalization and sizing when developing (and testing) a method or strategy … Said another way, sim will never come close to the compensation for undercapitalization that the big pack of losers come in wishing it would be. ... Yes, you would probably be better off not putting all your money into a big pile and setting it on fire. And just as true - for all but a few - if you have a need to ‘ease yourself in’ to this game via pretend, you would probably be better off not trying out at all… ... Re: developing viable” strategies” . Build it dry, then get it wet Yes ... It can be done, but it’s best not to try to build a boat while already going down the river … Yes... It can be done, but it’s also best not to develop “the least idea” of a strategy that “holds water (in or out)” (and evolve beyond basic prototypes) from ‘in(side)' live stream charts. Once designed and prototyped, then find out if what you have developed and built 'floats' (or not) in the real world, not in a simulator. And, note, most subsequent and significant improvements on your designs will unfold from experiences in ‘real water’ not from fkn algorquations or sim tunnels/chambers/modules. See How a Boat-Plane Hybrid Shattered the Sound Barrier of Sailing | Autopia | Wired.com for a ‘physics’ example. (and btw, don’t get sidetracked in ‘the realm of form’ here … yes...trading is not physics, yada yada – ie what we’re talking about here is the manifestation of ideas.)

TradeCuts, I liked them. Straight up charts with projections.... minimal 'indicators'... Also appreciated that you made your own golden C ... zdo

All the countries on the planet that have high debt to 'gdp' ratios remain at risk of default, despite all the old,new,and coming bailout 'deals'... Activist Post: International Bankster Enslavement Plan Revealed to Cyprus Over the Weekend ... Trick question - Do you think 'germany' is a loan shark?