zdo

When I said "Steady, ‘consistent’ returns across a long sample often means the trader is running mm (too) far below the optimum…" I was talking about sizing mostly... not personal performance... MM math has one sizing schema that approximates optimum-f... a 'sweet spot' sizing for the expectancy (has to be +) of a particular system. Setting aside the practical part that optimal-f is still to high and just focusing on the 'theoretical' - what I was saying is if you run at about a third of optimal - f (for most 'typical' systems) you will produce a little bit more of the smooth part of 'consistency' (as defined) (... and a lower slope too... btw.) ... very generally speaking though... It's all really system specific. ...and one of the best 'professional' traders I've ever known, Dinesh D., routinely 'outperformed' and routinely had a very jagged eCurve and routinely was in (up to) 40% drawdowns... to talk with him you would project that he was risk averse and seeking consistency... but somehow in real life trading he was able to forego 'consistency'... A properly correlated and dynamically sized 'portfolio of systems' is the penultimate 'consistency' machine... hth

Thanks for sharing. Sad fact is 'ET' is everywhere ... I was protesting the paucity of the OP... True genius does not "reside" in simplicity. All the best, zdo

"Simplicity , in my terms , has nothing to do with loss avoidance or anything like that." Yet we got the following…’in your terms’ no lesson comingling there ? And you're asking us to “Stop trying to complicate a ham sandwich.” and "You have a seller with his offer You have people who are offering to buy at a certain price ( bid) and will not go higher. You have people who do not care what price is they just have to have the thing so they "BUY IT NOW" same as a market order. You have spoofing on ebay and bid retracting just like the financial markets." One man’s “simplicity” is another man’s “noise” and … why are you complicating things with bid and offers? In liquid markets ...

M.A. re "What is 'consistency'?" Historically the favored way for measuring managers is adequate slope and sufficient smoothness of equity curve. :nowgoingofftopik???: I have found that it’s best for me to ‘measure’ consistency not on outcomes, but on the consistency of my own moment to moment and day to day perceptual acuity … (fwiw, that's individualized info…learned through naturally being a little bit more mutable than average, and across many years of often trading multiple systems at once, realizing the long hard way that returns are simply not consistent across time… strive for inner consistency … outer / returns consistency – forgetaboutit ) Steady, ‘consistent’ returns across a long sample often means the trader is running mm (too) far below the optimum… yet (somehow) finding a way to remain ‘exposed’ anyways…

Yum! …chicken. A trader can very easily simplify himself right out of business. (…I sincerely hope not while morphing and weaving ‘simplicity’ into trading psychology lessons about loss avoidance biases, responsibility, etc. in the process…) True Genius Resides in Complex-ifying as much as is needed and Simplifying as much as possible – not in weighting one and discounting the other for everyone by edict. Ie True genius is staying near your own sweet optimal spot ‘btwn’ weird complexity and utter simplicity.

What I’m really finding ‘mmature’ * is the emphasis on OR’s instead of AND’s It takes - ‘Maturity’ AND ‘mindfulness’… AND ‘virtues’ AND … ...Not really a “rebuttal” at all… * one more time – jk ... those :winx: have no meaning to you? If you’re so locked down in ‘responsible self’, ‘judgmental self’ ‘protector/controller’, whatever, etc that you can’t tolerate any levity, then -more than just "like Rande and his posts", you might benefit from giving him a call … yes, even you - compatible "philosophical viewpoint" or not. … and if even you could benefit, then the other(s) this post is really talking to might benefit too… … and btw, something we do agree on, peeps - RH 'stuff' is not for everyone

No way in hel would I ever qualify for a discourse with Steve… I’m just too flippant and silly and… but someone else out there might need to hear this - so… Steve, you’re making some fkn immature assumptions jk To assume that since you (and the small cohort you have experience with) can pull it off by just ‘being mature’ … to assume that since ya’ll are all squared away, that every other individual can get it together by just bringing an "adult perspective" … an ‘aware ego’, and not dealing with and bringing into inclusion any ‘disowned subpersonalities’ / ‘archetypes’ / ‘wotchamaycallits’ is just sheer dum ignernc bubba ----whoops excuse me --- that,sir, is just sheer naivite... ... :severalirreverentsmilyfeces: ...

Except for the ‘manipulators’ , I often wonder how many of those ‘selling’ are consuming their savings… their (not infinite) personal wealth... (yes...many of those may even making an intermedieate step into 'chasing returns' with the proceeds of their gold sales... but still I wonder...) …the title Gold Bullish or Bearish … might be better titled Gold Bullish and Bearish – since there is no inflation… :helloooo: ... and since there is no deflation… :helloooo: ... and money is still cheap (at least for sure still cheap in JPN )… who needs gold when you can still buy cheap dollars with dollars?…

The mind is trapped in form. If those ratios weren’t there, it’s not likely ‘we’ (Leonardo Pisano (who wasn’t really the first to discover fibs, etc), et al) would have ever ‘seen’ them… Probably never realizing it - even to this day - Donald E. Simanek did not write a paper about the ratios. He wrote a paper about misguided ‘mystics’ still looking for the ‘formless’ in form… desperately looking for a language in the 'numbers' … and they find it… but they find in it an incomplete symbology – like all languages … He wrote a paper to desperately make sure he didn’t make the same mistake… ...and you might just be using that link to 'throw the baby out with the bath water'… In the markets, pure fibs sequences are the exception... exclusively focusing on 'fibs' , instead of the current dominant ratio 'cluster' (which is transitory and lasts... until it ends) yields tradable 'precision' about 5% of the 'time'...

Pls someone 'splain' to us dependency

For those of you who are actually learning some things from this thread… When you’re setting up your scenarios and building your constructs , slide them much more closely around 50 50 than 97 – 3, etc. (97 – 3, etc may be illustrative – but it is also produces ‘unconscious’ delusions …) Also, watch out for those posts that lay down rules and structures for this type of trading without defining the capitalization parameters containing their approach… (ie generally - ‘fully’ capitalized can fully scale… less fully capitalized can only partially scale… … barely capitalized better not scale at all…etc.... ) ...and to have a 'less than random ;)chance in real life, you need to go much beyond generally to very 'system specific'... cause you, yes YOU, have an "...unless..." coming to a future in you... Have a great weekend all

I came back early from my vacation to trade … guess I’ll start up fkn with ya’ll in these echo chambers again too… charles hugh smith-Artificial Abundance, Moral Hazard and the Federal Reserve's Doomsday Machine … nothing we haven’t been saying for years… just that now more voices are catching on to the con’d meme … although we still have a ways to go until it really verges past the threshold into a collective crescendo… ie real mess...

On the spec trades, as ‘planned’ at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-44.html#post179017 was stopped out last Thu near 22.30 and, as planned, took on three loads at ~21.67 and one at ~20.67 last night – each load scaled arithmetically larger than previous… Have two more scaled load limit orders at 19.67 and 18.67 to reach full allocation for this trade. May have to wait a while… or later, may have put stops above (oco’ing the limits) to fill the allocation instead ... I remain overall bullish on PM’s … but this ‘correction’ may last for some time… it has already become a long drawn out affair... largely a rotation out of etf's, etc. into physicals … On the hedge side… won’t discuss past 'that’s a whole different world'… … regarding manipulation, etc... who is clinging to an old, collapsing world view ? who (...besides the fed ) has the 'funds' to create mega paper shorts at will ? who wants you to believe falling PM prices in relation to fiat means PM's are losing their purchasing power ? who ... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/guest-post-new-abnormal ? … Won’t be around much for a while …Taking off for 5 - 6 weeks … may check in once or twice... all the best. zdo

:rofl: Seriously though, we are talking in here about traders, not investors. Important distinction. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex/13692-characteristics-traders-versus-investors-forex-markets-2.html#post156184 etc ...and when you hear Buffet say: “I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer,” it's obvious his proclivities and strengths are in playing the monetary system, etc. and it's a good thing for him he didn't try to become a 'trader'.

Re Static or dynamic The key to any straight or crooked 'line' on any chart - no matter what you name it or how you derive / program / calculate / project it – is how much it ‘matters’ when at the time it is approached… it could be as strong as the wall of china in the moment… or it’s there but it could have the strength of a frkn jet vapor trail It's better to know it's there than not that is Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements

A ‘real’ fibonnaci trader talks [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soynQs8qxCA]Mark Douglas - MIND OVER MARKET (Full Interview) - YouTube[/ame]

Skimmed some earlier posts… and as a beginner, the first ‘thing’ I was ever really into in trading was fibonnaci ! lucas quickly followed… then modified gann angle clusters… then… Actually, the really first active interest was fib time projections! Exciting, fun, and episodically successful. Working deeper and deeper into that ‘episodically’ is what made my trading career. learning to “read charts” (like wak off, et al) occurred on a wholly asynchronous process, via different learning and work modalities (… this is partly what mit is ‘seeing’ and commenting about re db’s ‘intrusions’… and it’s questionable that db understands this…his content doesn’t indicate he does…)

Actually applying that would be Pure Wisdom. All the best, zdo Have a great weekend all ps: btw, imo it's closer to 3% and ...too bad for us that you don't seem to care to modulate your 'angry inner put down queen'

Kuokam, I hear you but there are almost as many variations on astro wk as there are on technical wk in trading. I couldn’t teach "astromental", for one, because there are so many "astromentals". For two, I can’t teach period. On TL I think I have less than 20 posts on the subject… In essence, you would need teach yourself the basics of your "astromentals" – finding those, if any, that speak to you and provide actionable information. You may be attracted to the ‘astros’ resonance with the ‘neural nets’… you may be attracted to ‘astros’ resonance with (and sufficientlyupsetting) the 'fluid nets', etc etc etc etc etc etc… No matter which ways you master in astro trading , imo, ultimately you’re only learning additional ways of how to do summations of cycles… and the art is to learn how many degrees to lead… if you don’t have a deep passion for it, then just stay a layman – wtf is a layman anyways ? Re disclosure: There are some astro methods that I use but don’t discuss… but they are horary, for personal applications, not for projecting possible collective actions. I am personally less curious in astro than in the past and even then my interests were in the developmental symbolism of the zodiac and then jumped to the long term, more esoteric cycles – galactic astro , instead of planetary , etc. etc. – completely skipping traditional, conventional, personality, etc. and astro's for and about the current masses. Back in the early 90’s, I was blessed with a friendship with a trader who specialized in astro for his trading and so was also blessed with watching the reality of astro trading in action … I learned that as far as CIT goes, the aspects, etc. correctly identify around 20 out of the next 3 trend changes … I get info feeds from passionate astro traders almost daily. This particular ‘May 14’ aspect I was yammering about is founded in Mars 180 Rahu I think bobc uses a high end astro trading program. You could probably PM him and get details. I was just acknowledging, lightly engaging, and appreciating his astro talking. If no one does that then he will probably just go away… and if he goes away , I would miss him and his unique input. I think posters should post about what they are ‘working’ on improving at the moment. For example, the ‘contrarian’ fx, etc. position trades I’ve been posting about lately... completely out of my wheel house. My PM trades are long term trades based on fundamentals – a type of trading that has also always been even more foreign to me. I was blessed to receive excellent advice in long term pm’s long ago… and ‘lucky’ enough to apply it rather assiduously… but that doesn’t mean I am a master at fundamental trading, by any means… All the best, zdo

... modified scaling / adding more short EurJpy ... modified scaling / adding more short UsdJpy (6JU3) ( fwiw lightening loads on other long Eur trades (EurChf, etc. ) exiting large part of long TryJpy as we speak... Still long PM’s, with stops and position reestablishing limits resting below. Will roll out of longs and start shorting US indexes before cob May 14… just for snicks. Also have moved up resting stops under YM to leg back into the SI/YM spread campaign… ... ambivalent about shorting AUD more... ... )

thx. bobc fwiw May12 - ~16 "the astro" opens some possibilities that trading just about everything will be fun

(dark dirty) Trade recommendation: Sell BTC (overbought ?) Buy SNAP cards (at a discount. Fact. No question.)

:rofl: [that's too good... you should see it in real life ...]

sell ! sell ! ! sell sell ! sell sell ! sell sell ! sell sell ! sell sell !

If the pms_fiat.jpg (1st attachment below) means nothing to you, then the pms_fiat.jpg below means nothing to you … … The Chinese have figured out what to do with all their depreciating dollars (see 2nd attachment below) ... Are We On The Verge Of Witnessing The Death Of The Paper Gold Scam? - BlackListedNews.com I’m am largely getting around this by simply exchanging gold for silver at this point… but the other day I also bought some bags of junk silver with USD and paid a cognitive dissonance level of premium… story maker was mumbling all the way home “are you fkn crazy?” We now return you to your regularly scheduled Vliinberg newsfeeds and ‘the trend is updn’ posting… :spam: Lower the Day Trading Margins for Your Account