zdo

It is comforting for me ... to know that it is possible ... and that 'it' is routine...

As our luck would have it, analogues to various aspects of trading can be found in almost ALL games and gaming. Monopoly, surfing, poker, sailing, stratego, martial ‘arts’, roulette, auctions, dot dot dot ... even this silly list is still applicable... The ‘virtues’, traits and strengths needed for all the games and gaming that have emphasis on skills for the outcomes are very similar to the ‘virtues’, traits and strengths, etc. that mark high level performance in trading. Mastering the management of sizing, exposure, risk, etc - is necessary for all the games and gaming that have emphasis on random (- like) outcomes... it’s an absolute requisite to exquisitely master similar ‘MM’* skills to have any chance of thriving at trading. You can tell a lot about yourself and where you are at in your development as a trader by the ‘metaphors’ that emerge from your mind (with a charge on them). Fwiw, on the spontaneous list above, poker and martial arts were the only two that that I had ever considered before... and at various points in time they did have a ‘charge’ for me... until I learned to KILL THE METAPHORs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! * (the misleading ‘voice of trading’ term for it)

SIUYA, Thank you for speaking for tradelab, but you only answered five of the questions. What's up with that?

s'not "fairtrade"

Again - WHO determines if the trade is fair? Who does the "To improve... " ? Who does the "To raise awareness ... " ? Who does the "To set an example ... " ? Who does the "To campaign ... " ? Who does the "To protect ... " ?

So WHO determines if the trade is fair?

Results <> 95%. A few (~18% imo) can survive. A tiny few (1-3%) will thrive. It’s system-dependent. It’s trader dependent. Think of like this ... Actuary-ly, it is highly improbable that one will make a fortune (or even a good living) as a buyer of insurance policies (unless you have the kahoons to be an arsonist ). With options, sans reliable and enduring inside info, it’s tough to consistently and safely project the ETA of swans (of any color) over and over... just ask Taleb Learning how to sell premium is no small feat either... requires authentic and serious Actuary-ly. Most can’t even keep up with the greeks ... so have very slim chance of getting up even with greeks enough to learn how to manipulate and capitalize on them... Contrary to the ‘risk is limited to premium paid’ voice of trading promotion memes, a more helpful, but absent, guideline would be - it takes rather massive levels of capital to buy or to sell premium successfully... Capital that for most could be similarly leveraged elsewhere for better and more stable returns ... Ie for most people option trading is ‘pushing a string’ (with the 'psychological' 'benefits'... that) Statistically, options trading is a way to modulate the rapidity of the ultimate results - typically allows (the appearance of, at least of) a medium burn rate and dodges the alternatives - death by a thousand tiny ‘burns’ or a meteoric “sudden unexpected disassembly”. hth

Fwiw, ‘narrative based’ day trading short Euro larger size in regular account the following Mon morning more than recouped the CHFJPY nominal drawdown amount. But, those funds will likely not be used to ‘refresh’ the OA account . That little account is pretty much on its own... btw that group of JPY trades * is still on in the OA account, including the short CHFJPY stinger which is still on at an avgprice of ~ 122.70 . It has currently recovered from about half the max adversity it ticked to intraday near 139.+ on 1/15 and, long haul, may still work ( ... especially if I ‘revenge trade’ a bit and throw on some well-timed long USDCHF. The voice of trading teachers always tell you to never ‘revenge trade’. I break that rule routinely. The correct spirit for revenge trading is important though... rather than do it to teach the monster a lesson or show it a (power)thing or two etc., do it simply and dispassionately to take back what the monster took from you... Inclusion of the term “well-timed” above is very important - especially when you’re dealing with a set of trades involving negative carry , etc... The use of the term “monster” is significant too. :helloooo:  ) * more fwiw - with cyclical short USDINR trades put on to offset interest costs / keep interest flow just barely net positive in the account...

My ‘short answer’ would also be NO - especially at first. An important early and crucial stage in the development of any proficiency is simply ‘playing around with it”. Don’t corrupt that stage for yourself . Referencing others’ “insights”, taking lessons, modeling others, etc. etc. comes later... when your ‘brains’ know (not necessarily consciously) what exactly they need to learn. "All things vibrate, and they vibrate at their own frequencies. When you understand this...your eyes will open to things you never seen before-things previously pushed to the back of your consciousness ..." ~Dr. Emoto It is vastly more important to ‘see yourself seeing’, to ‘see how you are seeing’ than it is to learn what others are seeing. (Further unsolicited but related bzarnes and going against the grain of 99% of the voice of trading ‘teachers’ out there, I have also always encouraged noobs to trade live right out the gate... tests you and your match to trading quickly... ultimately saves a lot of your life / time. ) hth

HP, Thanks a lot for bringing it up. Don’t have time to ‘discuss’ much .... Fwiw, I took a 10% haircut - strike that - took a 10% beheading of NAV to a small, very inactive ( ie mostly abandoned since they stopped carrying PM’s several years ago ) OANDA account via a CHF/JPY position leveraged at 10:1. In my 'head' it was a JPY play - one position in a cluster of JPY plays in that account - ... and that particular part of the play had been working. That play on the JPY "symbol" in my head turned out to be, among other errors, a “Category Error” For a good treatment of “Category Error”, etc. see Epsilon Theory - Salient Partners | Ghost in the Machine, Part 1 ...cute stuff like in that article. So, even though in this case I could have lost that whole account without pain, it is proving to be a good 'learning moment' for me...... for some unknown reason the whole deal reminded me of Biondo and Pluchino Phys. Rev. E 88, 062814 (2013) - Reducing financial avalanches by random investments Improbable Research » Blog Archive etc also , re why SNB action has not been discussed on TL, for snicks see On the Certainty of Uncertainty, or: Why there is no Skepticism beyond Self-Skepticism - disinformation Hopefully someone will take up the conversation with you without just a bunch of links-a-lot zdo

Thanks for refreshing this for us, Rande. Synchronistically, this recently popped back to the fore in my work with a new ‘mentee’. Growing a practice of simple awareness of one’s own unique “representations” is best seen as a process run independent of OVERCOMING - via ‘concentrating’ and ‘effort’ - all the ‘listed’ psychological problems and dynamics traders encounter ... hypothetically this ‘practice’ may be preliminary to or even independent of working with the aspects you call “belief lens”. Thoughts?? Traders, if you want, you can find examples of how easy it is to get sucked back into mushing the two together at ... all threads, btw, that I abandoned because posts by others (and then myself) ‘tractor-beamed’ the thread off my original intent. How quickly we in the ‘west’ are pulled off ‘process’ back into ‘goals’, etc. etc.... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/8410-edge-first-integration-first-both-first.html http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/healthy-trader/16008-untitled-rant-about-trading-psychology.html http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/7576-flow-thyself.html In essense - When you cannot intentionally be aware of your own ‘markethesia’, the only possible result is a progressively worsening and painful ‘dysfunctional markethesia’ ... this 'essence' is best seen separate from any and all ‘trading psychology’ - and even separate from all the stuff with a ‘neuro-‘ prefix...

... ...what goes around comes around... ... dabbling on the long side of the EUR into the year end... :spam: happy holidays all...

Clarificaton of my msg - ie more off topic repetition The message is simple. Each person needs to differentiate for self between trading, investing, and wealth preservation. Check the narrative in your posts. It acutely mishmash conflates all three of them. The “Regular programming” in here on this TL thread is traders / “swappers” doing their TA and sentiment thang. I am first and foremost a trader so I have nothing against it and trading paper PM’s… except in most times there are contracts that provide more bang for the buck…except ‘trading’ it based on the background collective memehope that it will again go especially parabolic ‘works’ only 1 in 30 times it is ‘predicted’… Culturally, typical ‘regular programming’ is MSMs doing anything but ‘gold buggin’ … they never stop sabotaging beliefs that gold might possibly be king. They never stop promoting alternatives. They mish PM’s into the ‘investments’ category - ignoring that investments must be productive. In your MSM supportive story, since 19xx or 20xx, it has even performed horribly against all other assets and other “fx trades”. On one front is a narrative to sustain the false dialectics of paper bugs vs gold bugs. It promotes “swapping” as fast as possible to discourage ‘investing’ in gold as a vote of no confidence in cash producing businesses… programming you to diversify as much as possible into paper debt tickets of an insolvent global private banking corporation whose only saving grace is the ability to create more paper debt tickets at will and without supervision. In this “Regular programming” meme, ‘gold’ can be nothing but price sensitive. … for the record, I never ‘invest’ in PM’s. In uncontaminated ‘preservation of capital’, one’s perspective is NOT price sensitive - period. Again, each person needs to clearly demarcate for him or her self between trading, investing, and wealth preservation. As gold only goes parabolic 1 in 30 times it is predicted to, even more rarely - ~ 1 in 300 times? - that it is ‘predicted’ , the system eventually does an‘ accounting’ of financialization - with an inevitable and very rare transfer of wealth to the people that own gold and silver. Who knows? and Who knows when? Prior to that - - PMs may even become a useless relic - especially on ‘spiritual’ levels… then suddenly .,. like “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilich Lenin * BANG !! Enough ( off topic ) said. I only post in this thread to encourage those coming behind me to make those stark demarcations for themselves... We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming replete with its confirmation and conservation biases to continuity and business as usual… meanwhile scissors cut your paper at a non alarming target of 2% per year … compounded… etc PS Re: “zombies” Physical Gold is about preservation of capital for light, life, and growth… no surprise zombies and their potential targets have no apparent access to or utility for it in their stories. “When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside of you as fate.” CG Jung Re: "baby Jesus’s gold" - Joseph diversified most of it into shekels for groceries. He later sold the rest to put Jesus through carpenter college. Like most messiahs, Jesus never releases his transcripts… there are whispers that he dropped out. Prine? Kristoferson? * while we’re on quotes of (a)typical Russians and their "FX trades" Vladimir Lenin Quotes - BrainyQuote Joseph Stalin Quotes - BrainyQuote SIUYA, Hope you (and everyone else too) have wonderful winter holidays

… the regular programming sure started right back up. "Gold can certainly have a bear market " Let's hope so! The stupid stuff has been in a 6000 year bubble "the example of the Russian trade is simply an FX trade - not a gold trade" actually from a russian's pov, it was not an FX trade, nor a gold trade. It was a 'non trade' that made the example And to the linked article… here’s a digest Boys and girls… Swap all the gold you have for something else as quickly as possible. Follow these recommendations from your friends who are paid (and unpaid… voices of trading ) to encourage you to exchange, trade, and swap papers and stuff as much as possible- > Never come off your ‘investment’ perspective. (really it’s ‘our’ investment perspective - to always measure valuation in terms of fiat and productivity ... to always mentally see and operate as if storing value, investing, and trading are all identical activities - but you best accept it and never question it and make it yours too) > Best to “swap” ‘it’ into currency. That way you’re primed to "swap" again for something that Buffett isn’t "swapping" for… like safely loan it out at almost usurious rates, or take stakes in companies that now systemically just can’t ever go down in value, or get slick and "swap" this currency for another that is ‘moving’. …someday maybe use technical and sentiment analysis to accumulate some gold again … however But - if you want to swap for a more trending ‘store of value’ that is still ‘physical’… > The following items from the article will hold value. They are indestructible and have no special environmental storage or transport requirements: Autographs, Stamps, Memorabilia, Wine, Ceramic vases, Vintage cars, Art works, Watches, Guns and ammo. They can all be thrown around and buried in plain dirt. (And speaking of dirt, don't swap for any of that sht either. It's not on the list.) > List mentions Diamonds. Great choice! Like the other items above you don’t need any special knowledge or experience to swap diamonds cost free… > The final item on the list, coins, really shouldn’t even be on their list. Why? The first words in the article title were “Forget Gold” Gold is bearish. ... as in currencies are better ... as in Most don't want it. Don't be one of the ones who do want it. Forget gold. Gold is bearish... end digest

moneybags, re: "Don't you mean "goner"... a person that is doomed or can not be saved. " Actually, I was just noting that it was an old thread. I typically encourage traders to go live right out the gate and discourage 'paper trading'... We can't really say about neeko. Maybe one post was all he ever needed to see through the 'voice of trading' and he's doing fine...

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Paper Covers Rock programming

btw peeps - neeko is 'gone' ... ie this is for general 'discussion' / fyi purposes only re: and re: My question would be - why utilize the HA at all? ...it is the equivalent of an exponential moving average... Used alone, or in conjunction with the additional 'indicators' mentioned, or even in conjunction with unmentioned / unconscious additional 'indicators' , across time ( and various, and typically much lower 'vix'es) , would it help a trader, esp. a beginner, outrun the whip ? tried to attach an illustration... Manage Attachments button does nothing... more censoring? ... more of TL taking to disingenuously claiming they're somehow revolutionizing online conversation -- by making sure there's less of it. ?

same, =, ... hth (enough characters yet?)

message too short make it at least 20 characters

Mystic, ...challenge is to keep both ways… and find ways to know when to do each. More accurately, find ways to slide the size weighting of each ‘system’ to the proportion of each that gives you the best odds across time ...without being whipsawed when the ‘narrative’ inevitably shifts… ..."Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth."– Mike Tyson Have a great holiday all zdo

Good question... thankfully, it's not Mystic ... re: "abandoned"... Maybe. and, btw, if there are new 'owners' or even mgmt, a announcement would be appropriate...maybe that happened? I haven't been around much... ... – Ayn Rand; Atlas Shrugged, 1957

In my experience, the only “can’t loose” PM ‘trade’ is to be a price insensitive accumulator of the physicals across time… to the point where you then start only exchanging one physical element for another… and only using currencies/debt in transactions at all for any ‘hedging’ [snic] via derivatives you might be doing. Each and every other PM ‘trade’ can and most likely will at some point along the way be considered as a “can loose” (or "loss" or however you might spel it.) or at minimum, a suboptimal allocation of capital... : citations removed to delay being banned

In looking at this old question, we need to be careful not to conflate that universe of those who have ever hopened an account with those who actually embody trader … only a ‘sample of one’ can know the differences … the ‘voice of trading’ can never tell us…

Maybe he’s busy scrutinizing the 63 tonnes of naked shorts you added on the other day

OFF TOPIC ie SwingTrading you probably should start your own thread... It’s system dependent… one old ‘swing oriented’ trick for that particular issue is when you get setup and triggered then place entry limit order where you would have previously been placing the stop… another way, also system dependent in the particulars and varieties of its application, is to trail a stop up under (for a short) when a setup and trigger form instead of simply getting in… so that it's price movement in your favor that puts you in positions… Again, all this is very system dependent... entries and stop techniques and placement ... “Learn” to ‘think in probabilities’… Note: Use of the words “learn” and ‘think in probabilities’ is massive oversimplification / generality… short labels that obfuscate far more than they explain… the ‘thinking’ part is only one aspect of the whole process… and no explanations will ever take you closer to experiencing ( in my own 'sample of one' experience, preparation of the body precedes any possibility/capacity to authentically and consistently do the ‘think’ part…) ‘think in probabilities’ = you ready you to for multiple re-entries after being stopped out and none of them are one “bit frustrating”. * I'd post some references and links...but, in this fkn place, it would get me banned... "I did what I did for the good of the realm." "The realm. Do you know what the realm is? It's the thousand blades of Aegon's enemies; a story we agreed to tell each other—over and over, 'til we forget that it's a lie." "But what do we have left, once we abandon the lie? Chaos. A gaping pit waiting to swallow us all." "Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder. * ...Many who try to climb it fail; never get to try again.The fall breaks them. And some are given a chance to climb and they refuse. They cling to the realm. Or gods. Or love. Illusions. Only the latter is real. The climb is all there is." —Baelish to Varys, Game Of Thrones; Season 3, Episode 6 (The Climb), @48:00