zdo

Omg ... and I thought I was jaded. Have you ever been the last sucker? Me? Nope  ... but :haha: I have been next to the last and/or one of the last transactions on several memorable and painful occasions across the years. re: have gold miners upped production to offset lower prices? In established, producing mines, actually ‘they’ have ramped up extraction same as oil producers have - particularly the domestic chinese operations. In exploration and development ‘they’ have not... because they would have to pile on debt and they don’t... they would have to put too much of their claims up as collateral to get decent financing ( which was not the case to finance oil exploration - at least until recently.) Unsustainable production will finally collapse and that will set up the “nobody saw this coming“ ramp in the price of both. Agreed. (fwiw, I just recently started a ~16 month long (almost pure) scale trade in long crude) The intent of the question was to explore the vast differences btwn the ‘supply’ of PM’s and the supply of most other instruments. When almost anyone purchases petrol now, they expect petrol. When almost anyone purchases PM’s now, they are willing to settle for a chit. The psy-op that chit supply can be cofangled with real supply is dying a ‘slow and sudden’ death. Consensus belief is that death is not eminent so the “suckers” are still selling. But, contrary to the meme, it doesn’t take everyone to shift to demand physicals delivered when they buy PM’s. It only takes a rather small decrease in the percentage of ‘believers’ for the whole house of cards to come down. “The central illusion of this era is that the Status Quo can be reformed or saved” CHSmith ... PM’s are not a good investment. Heck PM’s are not really an investment at all. ... and PM’s are only occasionally good trading instruments ... but PM’s are always an excellent store of value to hedge against political/collective insanity... and even the convenient parade of lies and now ‘permanent emergency’ reports put out by the latest half black repubicrat from texas are not rosy enough to dispel a pretty ugly diagnosis/trend --- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-16/obamas-recovery-just-9-charts ...in trading talk It doesn’t take much to spread an analogy too thin... or to misuse generalities and or specifics... or start bouncing from strawman to strawman... just ask zdo I need less conceit, not more... a big ego is not the equivalent of a strong ego... better I humble myself... and remember I never know this time how many hubris clicks I’m away from being the ‘last sucker’ again... and re: “earned the solitary distinction” ?? 2197 posts and maybe 30 of them are quality posts... and even that may be a stretch (esp. if you were to ask sunny disposition.) You’d have to make a stronger case than that  lcase zdo will have to do. I just wish I knew what the ‘o’ stands for... We never know or have whole truth. We can only get closer to it (or farther away from it) -- provided we are seeking it at all... Do you feel Yellen's pain? I don't

MM, in terms of the ‘campaign’, I can understand emphasizing the “mainstream sucker permabulls”. But in the big picture - especially seeing how costless it is for them to (over) supply permabulls with paper - basing analysis on these mainstream suckers may be as specious as basing analysis on comex numbers - (which sunny said (and thought?) I was doing)... In crude, producers are pumping like crazy to make up the revenue lost from the ‘bear’ market in energy. In PM production, are miners doing the same? Now for something completely off topic... saw an ad for a movie (coming to a theater near you) last night called “The Martian”. even if it turns out to be a superlative movie it still has no chance of ever matching the book. Quick recommendation guys -- Read this amazing book ( and do it before seeing the movie )

Anyone who loses sleep over anything is naive. Here’s hoping all our insomnias start near sunrise each the morning... ( inserting some heavy :sarc: here ) Anyone who ‘loses sleep’ over Comex numbers or GATA numbers or goldbank holdings numbers or any ‘report’ numbers is naïvely focused on physical PM’s... and as you have helped imply in so many ways over and over and over in here, paper gold is much more important than the ‘underlying’. Those premiums for the underlying mean nothing ever... backwardation, etc. are totally irrev... and they should never be mentioned or discussed - especially in a “Market Analysis Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis”. It is better to obfuscate by encouraging us to reify the venerable comex, etc... and discourage anyone from questioning toryland... or seek more truth. The 135 year old comex lies are just a tiny sample example of an on-going paper scam - which your posts reassure readers to believe in the stability of and to stay invested in (thx sunny) ... my posts encourage them to question and to test their own personal self hypnosis (thx zdo) Re You just said “$300” oz !!!!! that is very very barish indeed (...more accurate phrasing might have been “Which if I am right is fiat bullish "any way you slice it".” ) Folks, Imagine, if you will, a scenario where fiat and PM’s simultaneously decline against __________ ...

This is very very barish Anyone Who Believes The Comex Numbers Is Very Naive | Investment Research Dynamics you are here "Market Analysis Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis." Hussman 119

re "... month..." and "SELL" and "No longs for me" and ... etc. etc I'm progressively shifting from short bias ... ie by early October and for the next + 5 months, I will be as equally comfortable taking long setups and triggers as taking short setups and triggers in any PM trades I might do. After that, the 'bias' will go out of balance again ... jmo

A. Really?! I thought it was a trading laboratory. B. thx... Of Two Minds - Will the Fed Have to Save Emerging Markets with QE4? C

To help the noobs can get at the issues being ‘discussed’ here ( ie to help parse them out from all the personal shit that’s being slung in reaction to peeps getting evoked ) > re: gold as a trading instrument. Among the ‘commodities’ across time, I have found gold to be just a so-so instrument to trade... except when it is ‘public consensus’ hot... (to research this, check range/volatility based ratings of futures instruments across last 20 - 30 years ... gold is so - so. For easy research, John Sweeney’s monthly instrument ratings across the last 30 years or so correlates very well with range/volatility based ratings mentioned above...) >re: one leading the other. ... when gold is hot, typically all the PM’s are hot. And when they are hot, silver historically tends to make larger percentage price changes. Example: from near simultaneous peaks, in last few years gold is off less than 50%, silver off close to 75% ... (BobC and/or Sunny may be willing to teach you how to alternate charts on these two... but only a few of the students completing the study would be able to apply such techniques effectively across time.) > re: the gold: silver ratio. This ratio is typically used for long time frame trades. (Sunny may be able to use it for short term calls, but he’s one in a hundred. Maybe he can teach you how to do it with shorter holding periods. Good luck.) > re: gold is only a commodity vs gold is money. My posts have not been about which it is, or when it is which , or ... My point is simply this - more traders than not will have unconscious difficulty with the ‘quasi’ nature of the PM’s, get mixed up in the wrong ‘crowd’, and not realize it until it is too late. Having watched many 'gold' traders deal with this (across nearly thirty years now) , I can confidently say no amount of technical acumen will compensate when this polarity is internally operational in a trader... ... my recent heyoka-like 'bulls who think they are bears' posts explore an aspect of this... after all A. This is a trading site.

Sunny, Hey - it got you posting ...  You have to slap some ppl silly... especially fiat bulls. All my ‘program interruption’ boolish posts in here are actually just bearish ‘fiat’... of which the dollar is simply the ‘nicest house in a horrible neighborhood’. If these posts trouble you to the point you resort to just trying to shut me up, maybe you’d benefit from taking a long hard look at your own assumptions about the system... and how brittle and fragile the manufactured reality has become... etc etc. Btw my “calls” have been made over and over and they don’t mean sht to the vast majority of TL readers. ...which is comprised of beginners and various ‘voice of trading’ specialists who each have gotten very good at their own way of reading the x-rays - not aware of or willing to acknowledge that they have been interpreting FAKE x-rays for years and years. So - one more time 1. If you have physical gold, trade it for silver. 2. If you have gold and want to keep it, hedge it. 3. If you don’t have gold and want to buy it - Don’t! Buy silver. 4. If you want to TRADE the ”commodity” aspects occasionally discussed herein, serially focusing on other commodities will get you more bang for buck - over time. (That is - unless you are a bull who thinks he’s a bear ... who unconsciously has to keep his hand on the pulse of gold... who in the back of his mind is also conceding the persistent ‘money’ aspects of gold... if this ‘dual purpose’ nature of the element attracts you, but you still think in terms of dollars... well then - you’re a bull who thinks he’s a bear...) ...do I look like a bear who thinks he’s a bull ? :snick snick snick snick snick: MM In posts, it is more important to get the analysis right. In trades, it is more important to get the direction right. I would love to give you a thousand goofy emoties with that but out of respect will give you just one. :missy: and btw BobC re "heres a secret for trading Gold" Do some more research... imo, you’ll find that across time the ‘lead’ alternates and that at no point does either PM ‘lead’ sufficiently to trade one of them from the chart of the other... Ya’ll have a great weekend.

Looks like our ‘technical’ posters are scared to post, so I’ll just throw more conspiracy peces not yet covered by MSM ( ;) ;););););););););) + 14 more hidden smilies for MM and Co. here goes The ‘swan’ * = global covert war “currency war”, “space / kinetic war”, and “sabotage war” ... so far August 11, 2015: China devalues the Yuan by 1.9%... "shockwaves" around the world ... “a devastating impact to the U.S. economy”. (???) August 12, 2015: Tianjin struck by "Rod of God" weapon, a space-based top-secret kinetic weapon dropped from high orbit August 22, 2015, early morning U.S. time, large industrial storage center in the Shandong province struck by "Rod of God" August 22, 2015, later in the day U.S. time: massive explosion rips through a U.S. Army munitions storage facility near Tokyo, obliterating it. (Sept. ___, 2015 Coordinated and partially successful grid attack on North American continent... ) ... So now we got The ‘bounce’ * :confused?: All is well. Your dollars are safe. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming --- which currently consists of scared white noise from bulls who believe they are bears :helloooo: ie we patiently await some chart analysis ... while waiting we do fun, useful :rofl: meme/narrative posts * both the swan and the bounce 'discussed' in http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-204.html#post198839 )

MM, I don’t know how many times I will have to explain it instead of pasting posts with smilies and winkies and :other: - but when I use the “Good analysis of gold” quote started by some other recent poster, I’m being incredibly facetious. Like ;) ;) ... Starting to catch on? And nothing in my most recent post referenced or commingled with that article or any other article... ie (Spot X 2) or (Spot / 2) = all are bulls! The 'bearishers' just don’t realize their bullishness... It's occluded by price sensitivity... You'll have a hard time finding that assertion made explicit in any "_____ or ___ analysis of gold" article... zdo

MM re: "Seems like a nice bullish article on gold." No. It's a "Good Analysis of Gold" Here it is - All those that think they’re bears out there really aren’t. Here’s how. Check the posts, all the analysis, projections etc. They all have a point - conscious or unconscious - where their 'bearish' ends. Most stop their supposed bearishness at 850 USD per oz. Oh a few get real 'bearish' and take the ‘destination’ to 350 USD, but hey! - on what freukn planet is ANY element really worth more than 200 USD oz? How the fk can AU possibly be 'worth' over 1000 USD right now? ... it’s a big bunch of bulls that don’t even know they are bulls, I tell ya... more...cont... ( with thorny pencil in hand I write....mkt memories/’market memory’ that matters to no one except me..... ) It took me 8 difficult years (’85-‘93) to learn how to be a comfortable ( ie sans internal disruptive dissonance) ‘long bear’ in index futures. Those lessons make it easy to be a ‘short bull’ now in PM’s when needed. (And btw - it’s is no coincidence that both families of instruments are highly manipulated ... from the 'highest' possible levels of manip... ) This thread needs some fresh technical analysis posts ... and some fresh new conspiracy theories...

since I don't have time to write today here's some cut and paste Why Is Gold Becoming Scarcer, 16 Aug, 2015 | Zero Hedge

All good posts... I still ‘accuse’ you of being a bull ! ... a bunch of short bulls... admirable... maybe more later...

that's fascinating but - it may be the other way around ... back to my point How many truly bearish posts have been made in this thread? ... I’m mean TRULY bearish - like the stuff is worthless/useless... like Jason Zweig WSJ If you remember any such truly bearish posts in this thread, please remind us and thx... cause ALL the other posts are actually ‘bullish’ gold

Think. Unless someone is really “it’s worth $1 oz bearish” - they are not REALLY bearish.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19610-trading-sla-amt-intraday-part-ii.html Db, I seem to get after you a lot on the ordering of your material. First Things First stuff. In the original SLAMT pdf, what you put last should have been first, etc. so... Regarding ‘campaigns’ - It’s rather late in the ‘course’ to be bringing that up Ie it’s not an advanced topic to be studied ‘later’. It is a BASIC topic... belongs at the front of the ‘course’... . (That is - unless it is now only beginning to really sink in for you. In that case - you’re excused.) Way back, I wasn’t so sure *, but in the intervening years since I first started studying this I have been forced to acknowledge it**. And I have settled on the conclusion that Wycff also FIRST recognized ‘campaigns’ as basic, then chose( or was ‘chosen’ / forced) to develop techniques that operated outside of campaign technologies. ‘Surefire’ trading entails being ‘inside’ a campaign - period. Few of us can be inside campaigns. "All the varying phases of stock market technique may thus be studied and interpreted from the buying and selling waves as they appear on the tape." Richard Wyckoff These are the words of an ‘outsider’. But he could not actually set aside or ignore or leave behind considerations of campaigns to focus on developing his techniques. His techniques are his own abreaction to campaigns. He was attempting to crack campaigns from the outside - whether he could continue to consciously acknowledge that or not. (Btw, most lose sight of it, but ALL TA methods are attempts to crack campaigns from the ‘outside’ ***.) In your course(s), rather than jumping directly into Wycff techniques, you should first send your student off to form his or her own conscious gestalt of ‘campaigns’, instead of asking them to leave them unconscious or take them on unconsciously ( ... or up until this point not even allowing students to even ‘believe’ in campaigns ) and Out... unless you come back with something to the effect that "None of this matters to the practical practice of the techniques..." All the best, Zdo * http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/volume-spread-analysis/3736-vsa-crock-not-8.html#post49972 ** funny story - my first job in the business was in an options room. It was the closest to direct access to a campaign I ever came... I caught on - but paradoxically I didn’t REALLY catch on until later - shows you how slow some ppl can be... *** http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/18588-volume-breakdown-how-much-comes-technical.html#post194359

MM, That was the OP of this thread... years ago. ... and since then, not one single gold bear has posted in this thread. zdo

message too short. please lengthen to at least 20 characters

Good analysis of gold. Some clear thinking about the price of gold. :..:

Good analysis of gold :.: Gold Sentiment Is Just Ugly

"Good analysis of gold" you missed the smilie? you missed the sarcasm? you missed the snicks? you missed the smell of facetious? Boolish in terms of what? One more time peeps - "trade gold for silver" (and if you don't have any gold, buy what ?)

Good analysis of gold

:helloooo: My last post clearly was misunderstood .. and I'm checking to see if I could have been more facetious. NOPE. Now, I'm now checking to see if this post has ANY facetious. NOPE... https://monetary-metals.com/monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report-26-july-2015/ https://monetary-metals.com/monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report-2-august-2015/ MM be talk some supply and demand smack to has it all figured out... I’m too autistic to even phrase questions for him xplain it. (... and I don’t think it would matter to creation of questions if I were bullish gold --- or bearish gold * ) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/comex-edge-deliverable-gold-drops-record-low-124-ounces-paper-every-ounce-physical Supply and Demand in the Gold and Silver Futures Markets - Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler - PaulCraigRoberts.org wtf ya'll aren't clicking through anyways.. Of Two Minds - Currency Devaluation: The Crushing Vice of Price I'm stilled scared you missed something along the way... so here Of Two Minds - Maintaining the Illusion of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes * fwiw, I’m neither... price insensitive... trade gold for silver... there's better speculative action in other "commodities" - which btw did not crash the last time... plus it's different this time...oh sht facetious is back!

Think now... do you really want to get us re-started on this? re "No Gun No Crime No Death No Violation" everyone here would like to agree with this... until they realize it’s about as stupid as “Just say no!” ... 11,208 firearm homicides per year in the US... guns bang 1,204,500 crunchy baby homicides per year in the US... no guns bang at all ... and Online database of psychiatric drug-linked shootings launched by the Health Ranger... PsychDrugShooters.com - NaturalNews.com

A meme will be provided if you ask The fake capitalism of the china put a “cast iron bid” under the market ... The fake capitalism of the west put a “cast iron” lid on top of PM’s Here Beginneth The Lesson... | Zero Hedge Of Two Minds - When Authorities "Own" the Market, The System Breaks Down: Here's Why A meme will be provided even if you don't ask “I am long because I like stability especially with my money. “ Edward J. Webb