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zdo
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by zdo
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Sunny, Hey - it got you posting ... You have to slap some ppl silly... especially fiat bulls. All my ‘program interruption’ boolish posts in here are actually just bearish ‘fiat’... of which the dollar is simply the ‘nicest house in a horrible neighborhood’. If these posts trouble you to the point you resort to just trying to shut me up, maybe you’d benefit from taking a long hard look at your own assumptions about the system... and how brittle and fragile the manufactured reality has become... etc etc. Btw my “calls” have been made over and over and they don’t mean sht to the vast majority of TL readers. ...which is comprised of beginners and various ‘voice of trading’ specialists who each have gotten very good at their own way of reading the x-rays - not aware of or willing to acknowledge that they have been interpreting FAKE x-rays for years and years. So - one more time 1. If you have physical gold, trade it for silver. 2. If you have gold and want to keep it, hedge it. 3. If you don’t have gold and want to buy it - Don’t! Buy silver. 4. If you want to TRADE the ”commodity” aspects occasionally discussed herein, serially focusing on other commodities will get you more bang for buck - over time. (That is - unless you are a bull who thinks he’s a bear ... who unconsciously has to keep his hand on the pulse of gold... who in the back of his mind is also conceding the persistent ‘money’ aspects of gold... if this ‘dual purpose’ nature of the element attracts you, but you still think in terms of dollars... well then - you’re a bull who thinks he’s a bear...) ...do I look like a bear who thinks he’s a bull ? :snick snick snick snick snick: MM In posts, it is more important to get the analysis right. In trades, it is more important to get the direction right. I would love to give you a thousand goofy emoties with that but out of respect will give you just one. :missy: and btw BobC re "heres a secret for trading Gold" Do some more research... imo, you’ll find that across time the ‘lead’ alternates and that at no point does either PM ‘lead’ sufficiently to trade one of them from the chart of the other... Ya’ll have a great weekend.
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Looks like our ‘technical’ posters are scared to post, so I’ll just throw more conspiracy peces not yet covered by MSM ( ;) ;););););););););) + 14 more hidden smilies for MM and Co. here goes The ‘swan’ * = global covert war “currency war”, “space / kinetic war”, and “sabotage war” ... so far August 11, 2015: China devalues the Yuan by 1.9%... "shockwaves" around the world ... “a devastating impact to the U.S. economy”. (???) August 12, 2015: Tianjin struck by "Rod of God" weapon, a space-based top-secret kinetic weapon dropped from high orbit August 22, 2015, early morning U.S. time, large industrial storage center in the Shandong province struck by "Rod of God" August 22, 2015, later in the day U.S. time: massive explosion rips through a U.S. Army munitions storage facility near Tokyo, obliterating it. (Sept. ___, 2015 Coordinated and partially successful grid attack on North American continent... ) ... So now we got The ‘bounce’ * :confused?: All is well. Your dollars are safe. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming --- which currently consists of scared white noise from bulls who believe they are bears :helloooo: ie we patiently await some chart analysis ... while waiting we do fun, useful :rofl: meme/narrative posts * both the swan and the bounce 'discussed' in http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-204.html#post198839 )
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MM, I don’t know how many times I will have to explain it instead of pasting posts with smilies and winkies and :other: - but when I use the “Good analysis of gold” quote started by some other recent poster, I’m being incredibly facetious. Like ;) ;) ... Starting to catch on? And nothing in my most recent post referenced or commingled with that article or any other article... ie (Spot X 2) or (Spot / 2) = all are bulls! The 'bearishers' just don’t realize their bullishness... It's occluded by price sensitivity... You'll have a hard time finding that assertion made explicit in any "_____ or ___ analysis of gold" article... zdo
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MM re: "Seems like a nice bullish article on gold." No. It's a "Good Analysis of Gold" Here it is - All those that think they’re bears out there really aren’t. Here’s how. Check the posts, all the analysis, projections etc. They all have a point - conscious or unconscious - where their 'bearish' ends. Most stop their supposed bearishness at 850 USD per oz. Oh a few get real 'bearish' and take the ‘destination’ to 350 USD, but hey! - on what freukn planet is ANY element really worth more than 200 USD oz? How the fk can AU possibly be 'worth' over 1000 USD right now? ... it’s a big bunch of bulls that don’t even know they are bulls, I tell ya... more...cont... ( with thorny pencil in hand I write....mkt memories/’market memory’ that matters to no one except me..... ) It took me 8 difficult years (’85-‘93) to learn how to be a comfortable ( ie sans internal disruptive dissonance) ‘long bear’ in index futures. Those lessons make it easy to be a ‘short bull’ now in PM’s when needed. (And btw - it’s is no coincidence that both families of instruments are highly manipulated ... from the 'highest' possible levels of manip... ) This thread needs some fresh technical analysis posts ... and some fresh new conspiracy theories...
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since I don't have time to write today here's some cut and paste Why Is Gold Becoming Scarcer, 16 Aug, 2015 | Zero Hedge
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All good posts... I still ‘accuse’ you of being a bull ! ... a bunch of short bulls... admirable... maybe more later...
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that's fascinating but - it may be the other way around ... back to my point How many truly bearish posts have been made in this thread? ... I’m mean TRULY bearish - like the stuff is worthless/useless... like Jason Zweig WSJ If you remember any such truly bearish posts in this thread, please remind us and thx... cause ALL the other posts are actually ‘bullish’ gold
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Think. Unless someone is really “it’s worth $1 oz bearish” - they are not REALLY bearish.
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http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19610-trading-sla-amt-intraday-part-ii.html Db, I seem to get after you a lot on the ordering of your material. First Things First stuff. In the original SLAMT pdf, what you put last should have been first, etc. so... Regarding ‘campaigns’ - It’s rather late in the ‘course’ to be bringing that up Ie it’s not an advanced topic to be studied ‘later’. It is a BASIC topic... belongs at the front of the ‘course’... . (That is - unless it is now only beginning to really sink in for you. In that case - you’re excused.) Way back, I wasn’t so sure *, but in the intervening years since I first started studying this I have been forced to acknowledge it**. And I have settled on the conclusion that Wycff also FIRST recognized ‘campaigns’ as basic, then chose( or was ‘chosen’ / forced) to develop techniques that operated outside of campaign technologies. ‘Surefire’ trading entails being ‘inside’ a campaign - period. Few of us can be inside campaigns. "All the varying phases of stock market technique may thus be studied and interpreted from the buying and selling waves as they appear on the tape." Richard Wyckoff These are the words of an ‘outsider’. But he could not actually set aside or ignore or leave behind considerations of campaigns to focus on developing his techniques. His techniques are his own abreaction to campaigns. He was attempting to crack campaigns from the outside - whether he could continue to consciously acknowledge that or not. (Btw, most lose sight of it, but ALL TA methods are attempts to crack campaigns from the ‘outside’ ***.) In your course(s), rather than jumping directly into Wycff techniques, you should first send your student off to form his or her own conscious gestalt of ‘campaigns’, instead of asking them to leave them unconscious or take them on unconsciously ( ... or up until this point not even allowing students to even ‘believe’ in campaigns ) and Out... unless you come back with something to the effect that "None of this matters to the practical practice of the techniques..." All the best, Zdo * http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/volume-spread-analysis/3736-vsa-crock-not-8.html#post49972 ** funny story - my first job in the business was in an options room. It was the closest to direct access to a campaign I ever came... I caught on - but paradoxically I didn’t REALLY catch on until later - shows you how slow some ppl can be... *** http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/18588-volume-breakdown-how-much-comes-technical.html#post194359
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MM, That was the OP of this thread... years ago. ... and since then, not one single gold bear has posted in this thread. zdo
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message too short. please lengthen to at least 20 characters
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Good analysis of gold. Some clear thinking about the price of gold. :..:
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Good analysis of gold :.: Gold Sentiment Is Just Ugly
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"Good analysis of gold" you missed the smilie? you missed the sarcasm? you missed the snicks? you missed the smell of facetious? Boolish in terms of what? One more time peeps - "trade gold for silver" (and if you don't have any gold, buy what ?)
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Good analysis of gold
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:helloooo: My last post clearly was misunderstood .. and I'm checking to see if I could have been more facetious. NOPE. Now, I'm now checking to see if this post has ANY facetious. NOPE... https://monetary-metals.com/monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report-26-july-2015/ https://monetary-metals.com/monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report-2-august-2015/ MM be talk some supply and demand smack to has it all figured out... I’m too autistic to even phrase questions for him xplain it. (... and I don’t think it would matter to creation of questions if I were bullish gold --- or bearish gold * ) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/comex-edge-deliverable-gold-drops-record-low-124-ounces-paper-every-ounce-physical Supply and Demand in the Gold and Silver Futures Markets - Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler - PaulCraigRoberts.org wtf ya'll aren't clicking through anyways.. Of Two Minds - Currency Devaluation: The Crushing Vice of Price I'm stilled scared you missed something along the way... so here Of Two Minds - Maintaining the Illusion of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes * fwiw, I’m neither... price insensitive... trade gold for silver... there's better speculative action in other "commodities" - which btw did not crash the last time... plus it's different this time...oh sht facetious is back!
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Think now... do you really want to get us re-started on this? re "No Gun No Crime No Death No Violation" everyone here would like to agree with this... until they realize it’s about as stupid as “Just say no!” ... 11,208 firearm homicides per year in the US... guns bang 1,204,500 crunchy baby homicides per year in the US... no guns bang at all ... and Online database of psychiatric drug-linked shootings launched by the Health Ranger... PsychDrugShooters.com - NaturalNews.com
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A meme will be provided if you ask The fake capitalism of the china put a “cast iron bid” under the market ... The fake capitalism of the west put a “cast iron” lid on top of PM’s Here Beginneth The Lesson... | Zero Hedge Of Two Minds - When Authorities "Own" the Market, The System Breaks Down: Here's Why A meme will be provided even if you don't ask “I am long because I like stability especially with my money. “ Edward J. Webb
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Sounds like a fun association - but I only saw a few minutes of that film ...decades ago. You'd have to fill us in a little bit more Thx zdo
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btw to help you decide whether to give any credence to what I’m saying 1) I do not agree with the proposed “two possible solutions to the problem of limited rationality” in the 'bounded unbounded' article. 2) I don’t think you have to study the market to see how it works. You already know. But- you may need to clear blocked flow to get at it. 3) I don’t think you have to develop a trading plan / style. I think you already have one built in ... you just need to remove blocked flow in the body/brains to get at it.
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"What is the Most Common Investors Mistake? smart ast answer = not knowing the difference between trading and investing. "What is the Most Common Investors Mistake?" sincere ast answer ( in a traders lab btw ) = the setups / your setups go something like... http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2015/03/17/bounded-rationality-unbounded-confidence the react / your react leads to the BIGGEST MISTRAKE which = holding large losses! After all that crap in the setup above gets you into jangled – the brain becomes more risk seeking with losses than it is with gains. Without intervention, you will tend to liquidate your winners and hold your losers. That loss you’re holding or that loss you are at risk of slipping into any day now – The market may never go back to breakeven for you in the rest of your trading career! I know from shorting big contracts in the 80’s in 'down trends'. You may think you are protected by a trading system – you’re not! Let advice about holding large losses sink in. ie ‘Learn from the mistakes of others – life’s to short to learn them all by yourself’ Have a personal plan in place that handles all the contingencies. Again - in psychobabble - it goes like this ... At some point in the setup above you pass a threshold and without intervention, you will tend to liquidate your winners and hold your losers... your brains become more risk seeking with losses than they are with gains. A position in the red is not a danger signal. Doubt is not a danger signal. But - A position in the red + hope + pain is an extreme danger signal of imminent and lasting financial, mental, and emotional damage – regardless of the position’s outcome. Learn from others' experiences – at the first tinge of hope or wishing, set a point and if it goes there, get out. Your system should be robust enough to get you back in if the market comes roaring back your way. And if the market doesn’t go to that drop dead point and it comes roaring back your way, don’t let that teach you the wrong lesson. For someone out there, this thread was no accident. We don’t know who you are but you will know who you are… Humbly, zdo PS : You are correct! There is no good place for a stop in your system. However, even though there is never a good spot to place a stop - there is still always a good spot to take a loss!
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"sell the rallies" and don't "buy the dips" and whatever you do, for sure do not accumulate physical PM's ! ... It was said "PM's are a hedge against political insanity" ... things have NEVER been more pliant, adaptive, sane and functional than now... PM's are a useless relic... cash can not be made illegal... cash can not be removed from circulation... a dollar's value is certain...
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The dollar is more and more precious to billions and billions of people. To you ? ... just a thought or two... All those new paper shorts do have to cover sooner or later... All it takes is a swan (of any color) for PM's to 'bounce' ... and the tiniest bounce would force almost all those newest paper shorts to cover immediately... (rather than meet m calls...) After that, of course, PM's could resume their deflationary work... :missy:
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Preface: This will be discouragement to most... encouragement to only a few (who don’t even need encouragement...) Of course it’s possible to get rich "by stock trading". The real question is does the person have the talent and the drive to develop the talent? Like - is it possible to get rich playing tennis? Of course it is. But what percentage of players do get rich? About the same percentage as ‘stock’ traders who get rich. Those who do get rich shine several levels above average in handling AND creating spin AND speed. And btw, tennis players have the luxury of only needing the master spin on one object. Traders who get rich need to be able to master the timing of multiple, simultaneous spins, etc etc. And like in tennis - where if you are performing at high levels you have to learn to anticipate and setup and begin your swing with an almost reckless ‘wild throw’ manner - way before the ball arrives - to get rich in trading you must LEAD... If you follow you get creamed sooner or later (...and if you don’t lead well, you get creamed even sooner :rofl: ) Of course not. This is relevant to the speed part discussed above compounded by the distribution of 'outliers' who succeed. Form breaks down as speed increases, and considering most traders don’t have solid AND adaptable form / technique to begin with, they fck up early instead of being able to stay in multiple ‘long rallies’ all day long. Fwiw - Those who are attempting to day trade do recognize that it pays to multiply your opportunities...it pays to keep your capital optimally allocated. Only a tiny few recognize all the other factors... One could make similar comparisons with other games besides tennis... Study any ‘performance work’. Adults who take on developing a new mastery typically make the mistake of going for technique first. And, you’ll find the ‘contributed education’ (from the worst and the best) ‘voice of trading’ advice herein continuously shapes starting at method, system, technique. It is my position that beginning traders need to develop physical and neuronal flow first so they will have ‘clarity of perception’ from which to choose which forms and methods are most suited to them individually, and rapidly get those things up to ‘unconscious competence’ - so they can start focusing on the other factors needed to ’get rich’ ... hth (hope this hurts )
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suggestion As a template or starting place for indicator to notify you when your conditions are met (bull trap close and PDH trap in your case) Insert a “save as” of the sample indicator (included in TS) named Day or Session High Low Line and modify code to your needs. hth