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zdo
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Everything posted by zdo
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... see folks? ... as expected... a demonstration that the 'voice of trading' has a prescribed sequence of development for you. A sequence that is sub-optimal ... a long running psy-op ... that all but a few fall for... and now it's choice time. :missy: (btw. db, having watched your progressions over the last 10 - 15 years, I predict that one day you will suddenly see what I’m saying.) all the best, zdo
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https://www.goldmoney.com/our-research/goldmoney-insights/eliminating-cash-will-also-eliminate-the-checks-and-balances this doesn't matter either https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/2012-2015-us-gold-supply-deficit-a-lot-steve-st-angelo.html
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Chris, 3 quick, brutal bullets > TL is not as good of a place for beginners as it once was. Nevertheless, it is still just as good as any of the other trading forum sites. > Trading is performance work. Typically, practical needs cannot be anywhere near the top of the list of why one is entering / doing performance work. Yes, there are legends about economically or class challenged young men who turned to athletics (also performance work) to get out the ghetto, driven to ‘buy a nice house’ for his mama, or whatever - but in almost all cases of those few that make it, these are ‘stories’ overlayed on the real story. A significant intrinsic drive for the activity itself better be inside there or you will stay in the ~79% that- slowly or quickly - go nowhere in this field. > Only 3% of traders and trading educators (ie the ‘voice of trading’) will give or agree with the following advice. In the beginning - DO NOT PAPERTRADE! It is 'looser' preparation. Leverage your time. Put your bodybrains into the real game from the beginning. Later, when you have selected and are developing your niche method(s) - then you may need and be able to utilize structured practice / papertrading. Wishing you all the best. zdo PS re your other post - learn the diff between exposure and risk ie learn the diff between exposing $3500 and risking $3500... ultimately very important at the level of overall portfolio management...
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Joost. Have you googled this? Pretty sure there is excel or vba code to be found. If you don't find it, PM me and I'll dig around in my archives for something... hth zdo
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Economics is fake science. All economic ‘schools’ are false (and you thought I was Austrian - haha) ALL economic models are designed to shape and dominate individual and collective ‘belief systems’ towards hidden, unstated ends. And it doesn’t take the whole population for a psy-op to work. In ‘finance’, only those who will be heading into the field need to be indoctrinated/ schooled. It only takes those who manage and ‘report’ on money to maintain the mostly semantic “mind-trick of managing expectations”. If you don’t understand what I’m talking about here, just go a couple doors down http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/18606-daily-analysis-43.html#post201799 Hey normal, the psy-op is going to take your money. And you don’t have to buy /‘invest’ for them to take it. I didn’t join TL to find friends... good traders are typically too ‘attachment disordered’/ fickle (tic) to be really good friends anyways. I did come here to be a friend... but in only one way. I came here to be a friend to the tiny few who really want to trade their way free of the ‘system’. 97+ % of traders want to trade their way into the ‘good’ parts of the system... They want to be In the system AND Of the system. Imo, they are insane. I’m here for miniscule few who really want to trade their way out of the system. These few work in the system, but are not of the system. They have dropped the isms and ists ... are becoming - simply - ‘anarchs’ Mm, re dark times, timing, CC, etc. Barring ‘natural’ long lasting decimation of the grid, we are not really headed for a repeat of the exoteric ‘dark age’. Rather - the planet is already plummeting into an esoteric dark age. The grid hastens it. The net becomes what a net always was - a trap (3). Conditions appear normal. But conditions also felt ‘normal’ in and around the 1930’s in Germany, etc. etc... (If you can’t see the parallels and/or if they aren’t meaningful to you - then clk the fk out ‘dis post right now bitch!) CC may take years ‘time’... but the quickening via electronics will certainly hasten the maturing fragility ... the only predictions being made here on the rapidity of re-establishing stability after CatastrophicCollapse is that it too will likely be shorter / quicker... than 'rome' way back when, etc... TL is a mainstream forum. This is a mainstream ‘dollar’ thread...( ‘internationally’ - it’s a ‘fiat’ thread - same diff.) So, very few will make it to the last link below... Anyways...do I think the dollar is going to go MUCH MUCH higher fx than it is now (before CC, etc)? Yes. Great trading opps... but... Do you understand that in the big picture that doesn’t hardly mean a dang thang to me? Do you understand that I'm advising my friends to allocate big time to as much physical PM's on the down low AS POSSIBLE ... even though I intuit there is coming a period where PM's will be unusually 'worthless' too...? China Unleashes A Debt Tsunami: Creates $1 Trillion In Debt In First Two Months Of 2016 | Zero Hedge The Four Horsemen Of Economic Apocalypse Are Here | Zero Hedge (3) This Is The Real Reason For The War On Cash | Zero Hedge Collapse Of The Paper Gold & Silver Market May Be Close At Hand | Zero Hedge btw - I thank god every day that zerohedge is ALWAYS wrong :rofl:
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... if one talks sensically in an insane asylum? This is a mainstream site. Members of this site use and regurge the ‘report’ and talking head info spoon fed to them by the psy-op. They “collectively choose wishful thinking”. One way of saying same = in here, normalcy bias runs rampant. In my view, this is best said another way - This site is experiencing a collective psychosis... along with the rest of the developed world. This “wishful thinking" has been an integral driver of the "recovery" 2009-2015: where asset bubbles aren't bubbles, central bank policies are brilliantly successful, unemployment has dropped to levels of full employment, ... and zirp/nirp will ‘stimulate’ banks to lend ... as if ... etc, etc. ... cash is king and we're going to go cashless. With a straight face, one of our most grounded (sane?) members recently said this global situation had not been a crisis until now... because it had not begun to be collectively perceived as a crisis until now. What I hear is “we’re all dead already; don’t disturb us.” Fear. TL illustrates traders in fear... either reduced to silence ...or attempting to suppress any ‘deviance’ from the ‘meme’ by shaping others to show ‘good sense’ and align with the ‘psychosis’... unwilling or unable to see the mainstream as an intentional “riddle” ... but D. Blount ... For this ‘psychosis’, catastrophic consequences are guaranteed. The matrix has created ‘problems’ that only collapse can solve. How convenient. look at how this thread is carrying this site... and how ... this thread hangs on the hopes of paper gold. ... It would be cool if a Craig Nelson were around someday to tell this story like he told that story at http://www.amazon.com/dp/145166043X/?tag=saloncom08-20 ... :missy:
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I’ve been informed I have not thoroughly ‘gone to the ends of the earth’ yet to clear my traumas... like I have yet to try several substances - ayahuasca, micro doses of lsd, magic fungi, or the worm in mezcal... etc. + haven’t tried colloidal gold... The gap is filled...
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It didn’t work. I decided long ago to post the first thing that pops in my head... maybe edit for grammar a little bit and keep on getting up. I don’t intentionally speak in riddles... maybe diddles, but not riddles... you all do realize how many diff. DSM categories they could pin on me don’t ya? :rofl: That was very inconsiderate of you dragging her into this It was not taken as a personal attack at all... it was no worse to me than most of the communication in here... was never offended...
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Re: “luck” “right place, right time” ...Yep, everyone wants the good life, but not everyone gets the good life... to have a shot at combined results of health, love, wealth, happiness takes perseverance... I can count on my fingers and toes the moments were I was at a critical juncture and simultaneously knew it was at a pivotal moment... in retrospect, I see there are thousands of such opportunities to 'create'. I’d be lying if I said it has been easy. But also in retrospect, I see how I could have certainly made it easy-er... Because it wasn’t easy... does it mean it’s ‘supposed’ to be hard? Now it is a constant battle not to follow the path of a ‘nation’ - stoic at the beginning epicurean at the end... yep neutralized partially at this point... only 15% of the allocation is on... following the plan. The big PM houses and holders lend gold to generate some 'investment' income on it. ( int. rates aren't right so these days, imo, that is stupid ... anyways ) (Over)hedging is sort of a way to 'lend' pms... And yep it's never perfect. I mentioned posting about putting on silver hedge at the top... In real life, I was in partially on the way to 52 ... where I 'knew' it was going :crap: ... was adding more into the 49'ish spike top but it flashed in and out of there so quickly my net avg per oz on the hedge ended up being in 42.60 ish... and without some 'luck' it could have easily been down in the 30's... MM,I don’t precisely what you mean by “never recover from blowing up” ... but instead of asking, I’ll just pull a bobc and project and make some sht up in my head about what you might mean... My blow ups were varied. With opm, for the people I cared about I told them to cash out before ‘disaster’ ... within weeks of startup for one of them I realized I couldn’t consistently adhere to the rules we had agreed to. It surprised my (quant-y) partner because he had been elated someone could actively trade the system during the day - leaving him to his work at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ... and the account was already a bit into the green. Not a typical ‘blow up’, but inside me, that whole venture was registered as a ‘defeat’ - a ‘blow up’... ...anyways had a wide variety of ‘blowups’ in the late 80's... Only one took me to ‘ruin’ where I personally no longer had enough money left in the account to margin anything. And to your assertion, yes - I have never fully ‘recovered’ from that. Primary traumas lay down so many layers in the body - in the myofascia, muscles, affective and effective peripheral nerves, - not to mention the brains themselves... beyond just neuronal type memory... beyond the cranio sacral system... etc. etc.. ...and may permanently alter the quality of the generation of the tiny number of new neurons ‘born’ each day in the hippocampus, etc etc... I will never say NEVER! I will always keep trying to ‘heal’ all my primary traumas. I ‘believe’ it can be done - but at the same time and the Point is - I acknowledge that the odds of fully clearing primary trauma are small. What people who are not ‘permanently’ crippled / over come by a trauma do is learn various ways to prevent going to either the extreme of flooding or the extreme of numbing when the trauma’s (current) state is re- triggered by seemingly random, non related events. We can develop all kinds of strategies to keep these ‘retriggereds’ up in the realm of ‘cortical coping’ instead of leaving it down in the ‘reactive’ mid and hind brain. (Check the web site of virtually every trading sickologist on the planet - one of the first things they all do is introduce some technique to ‘control’ emotions. A couple years ago, I got into what you’ve called a “one dimensional ” conversation with SUIYA about the futility of traders turning to therapists ... I challenged him to find me just ONE trading therapist on this planet who can really relate to trade based trauma, who can really calibrate what’s going on in the current individual, who doesn’t go into unconscious ‘co-dpndncy’ in multiple areas of the issue to make sure those areas will NEVER be dealt with... Basically, trading therapists will NOT be able to stay in the ‘chaos’ and help ... they will go into their own numb zone... I think that’s called ‘secondary trauma’. Btw, this is not the only area where trading therapists are completely inadequate... omg I digress! You would not believe the lengths I’ve gone and still go to heal my (life and trading) traumas. It is more extensive than my ‘grail searching’ activities ever were... and this is from someone who spent 6 figures on trading ‘education’ in 80’s dollars. Guess what - finding an area of ‘tolerable conflict’ doesn’t work! Conflict manipulation to break ‘bad’ habits doesn’t work! Willpower manipulation doesn’t work! Yet the preponderance of thousands upon thousands of trading posts from the voice of trading tell you to do just those things. None of those things clear the parts of the system that holograph the trauma patterns right back into existence. None of those things destroy the ‘decision of defeat’. None of those create...! om I digress some more ! I am eating these words again as I write them... hope ya’ll also have a great lunch ) MM, I make up what I think you mean and agree with you --- You can never recover from blowing up. BUT !!!!!!!!!!!!! , you can create a new... .... btw, mm, feel free to clarify what you really meant by "A blow up, ineradicably in my mind, is not something that you recover from. You can only do it once; hence, you never blew up if you are still here." - especially if I got it wrong.
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Good lord bob you are projecting / making shit up in your head. Besides, if I remember correctly, I’ve explained it in this thread before. I started trading futures in the mid 80’s. Young gun... first trade was 20 contracts of 30 yr bonds... 32.50 per tick... and 2 full point travel in the first hour was routine in those days. Was live in ’87 - remember it like it was yesterday. Up every morning at 5 am PST for the currency opening... a cotton mouthed adrenal wreck. Through the 80’s I blew up several times... my own money, opm, managed money... stuck with it. Then I kicked ass trading ndx futures through the 90’s. On the advice of a friend - who was an Austrian econ. type, real EW master ( ie EW as a social, not price chart, phenom) who taught me the trajectory of fiat, I started heavily accumulating physical gold in the mid to late 90’s ... back when it ‘really’ was a worthless relic of the past and was going to be that way from then on... (you ever wonder why it didn’t stay that way? Like now?) . Anyways, my average cost per oz is way way way below your 1400 figure. Across the last decade I have gradually traded the physical gold for physical silver... so re “You actually own the Gold.” No, now I actually own the Silver! * If I remember correctly, I posted somewhere in here that I was putting hedge on SI the day before it peaked in Apr 2011. (maybe you shouldn’t try, but get someone to) Do the math - I’ve got cushion. I hedge for fun. When I put on short futures contracts to hedge, it is really just locking it in relative to USD. I (over) hedge to pay the fkn taxes. Not “trying to recoup a loss” because with physicals, you don’t have to worry about purchasing power variation that much... an oz of PM will buy about the same amount of goods and services now as ever... Try saying that about your fkn fiat dollars or krutons or whatever fiat you’re brainwashed by... especially in light they are going to start charging you interest on your deposits... I've intimated several times recently an anticipation of a bounce in gold... EUR bounce post... also if I remember correctly, I questioned why you bailed so easily on buying mining stocks a while back... Basically this current hedging is preparing for this to be a short lived bounce. "The release of Genetically Modified Deflation has been postponed over and over... " zdo. If it's not a short lived bounce, no big deal. My SI is just as valuable to me at 14 as is it is at 48... Re: “ if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out.” No, if gold goes into the 1300 - 1330ish range and acts a certain ways I will stop out of the 25% of the (over)hedge that will be on by that point. ... and start preparing to put it back on elsewhen.... *A long term ratio trade between gold and silver is the best PM trade- imo. It’s not price sensitive. Have discussed that several times in here too. ... also discussed previously, I am building a long scale trade in far far out months of Crude. fwiw, It’s not a ‘perfect’ scale and it’s not on the 00 handles, closer to every 3rd handle... But, in the meantime with much larger size in other accounts, I have been shorting the sht out of crude for months ... in a way (over) hedging there too. Am just plain trading in ndx’s... it's not hedging - because I have been out of stocks for a long time now. Not looking for a ‘crash’ in stocks at this time... more of a slow boil down... taking the price down in small chunks, giving you a few back , then taking another small chunk... my cycle work for ndx’s was one day off early last Nov. Fx trading is fully automated ~24/6. Quite active... almost aggressive trading... but prudent sizing .... no hedging there either. I luv you bro and I got to tell you - the story in your head is messed... and not just the one about me.
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oil prices are the most visible straddling indication between the psy-op of finance and the real world…
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pc speak = “After previous two weeks’ rather high inventory numbers (7.8M) we should see the inventories at 3.1M level. However, the actual numbers have lately deviated quite strongly from the analyst expectations.” http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/18606-daily-analysis-43.html#post201696 interpretation of the pc speak = “we’re trying to help talk these inventory numbers down… but the freakn tanks are filling up and running over…”
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Still working to add 10% more shorts into this strength. (As noted before: these trades are hedging a long physical PM position .) Fwiw - I would be stopped out of these shorts by certain auction/price action if gold prices were to go to the 1300 to 1330 range in the projected time... we'll see. This is 'fear/safety allocation' fiat coming in now... (and lots of it is non USD ) ... all of it is money that is typically easy to tempt back out of PM's It's not the real deal - the capitulation - the enanthropia of belief in the system. That is not occurring YET.. There's no predicting when that will happen... but, imo, this ain't it - YET . Noobs, (actually to 1 in thousands of noobs) - don't waste these days. They are wonderful times to learn how to 'fear' properly, etc. Will pay dividends in coming years. :missy:
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Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one. | Zero Hedge
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I’ve had this question for some time now... Is it always tender on tender? Traders Are Throwing Up All Over This Market: "It Feels Like The Algos Are Hooked Up To Tinder" | Zero Hedge
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Fun with digital gold (previously known as / aka paper gold) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT2BNsMSwEo ps you don’t have to watch... if your time is limited, you can just listen btw mm, re your "one dimensional conversation" aversions try go orbital Orbital Articulation: A Theory of Higher Expression - disinformation
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As I’ve shared many times in this thread, imo, PM’s sole purpose should be for wealth preservation. Imo, these are good years to be preserving wealth. With physicals, not with paper. Hedge with paper. PM's are not an investment - period. Yep, if you ever used the words "invest" and "gold" in the same sentence, then I'm calling you a big fat dumbass. :rofl: PM's can be ‘traded’, but why bother when there are so many better vehicles to trade. One example: In the last two months, gold has moved on net less than 10% per month. In that same period, crude has moved nearly 10% every two trading days. And I can't tell you how much fun I've had shorting ndxs the last few months. In that light, trading gold is stupid... maybe a bunch of gold bugs who are in denial that they are even gold bugs maybe should stick with it, and specialists in trading PM’s should stick... but active leveraged traders are limiting themselves bigtime concentrating on gold contracts... jmo "they" When it comes time for the lem engs to go risk off, they go to cash. And then, typically, ‘they’ are gradually tempted out of their ‘cash’ by the call of ‘portfolio return’s and of course, the ‘consulting salesforce’ of the house. Every few cycles the narrative shifts and ‘they’ ‘invest’ in gold but what’s really happening there is - ” If an investor can’t rationalize valuation then they simply won’t invest.” So, ‘they’ are ‘buying’ gold now only because ‘they’ can’t rationalize valuation ANYWHERE else! Their orientation is still towards the dollar... and if their 1200 gold turns against them... moderator pls penalize zdo for relinking again... it bothers mm:rofl: The Bone-Dry Half-dead Forest Awaiting An Igniting Lightning Strike Is The Global Mountain Of Debt ? Debt Which Is No Longer Supported By Current Valuations Of Commodities And Risk. « InvestmentWatch I wish I was preaching to the choir... but unfortunately, I’m not. we now return you to your regularly scheduled bulls and bears
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The patterns can overlap and occur anywhere and the original ( ie reference ) testing on this pattern was based on trades taken on any occurrence of the pattern. ... But as we discussed in VSA thread, to really ‘leverage’ these types of patterns, they must be implemented / traded only in certain contexts. “Find the narrowest range bar of the last seven bars (NR7) to locate this sudden congestion breakout. Its predictive power lies in the location where it appears. NR7s work best right in the middle of congestion, or when price pushes repeatedly against a major barrier. When the signal works, it works fast and triggers a major price expansion without a pullback.” Alan Farley Ultimately, it’s best not to merge this idea with the position sizing It will show up and may even ‘work’ on any timeframe... but, in general, you will miss too many trades narrowing your criteria to just this setup in congestion breakouts on intraday charts... fwiw The trade triggers with the most 'beautiful' results look 'average' ... 'beautiful' triggers yield average results tennis anyone? zdo
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The Daily Bell - Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalization btw imo the sentence near the end that reads "The idea is to make sure that a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. " should read "The idea is to make sure that YOU BELIEVE a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. " :helloooo: ... no one in here has convinced me you don't believe...
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re: "I’ve got the EUR trying to turn up, at least bounce, in the next 1-3 weeks ... which correlates bullish PM’s over last few years" zdo circa 1/4/16 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-222.html#post201108 so ... hedging SI with GC...into this EUR strength / ($ 'weakness') ... short another 5% far out months as G16 tapped near 1200... btw ... I do mind getting stopped out ... but way less than these new 1200 $ 'safeheaven bulls' will. JC say All the best, zdo PS bobc re: "PS Got any ideas on Oil??" You already don't like any ideas I have on Oil.
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(right or wrong... we'll see... anyways...) I added another 5% to short (over) hedge today with Z16 when it went through 1162 on G16 contract. Will likely only do 10 - 15% more via 'limit' and do the rest with climbing stops arrayed below... Ya'll have a great weekend. zdo
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bobc, fwiw, I totally understood mm... (but he didn't tell us why he wouldn't want to be short...) zdo PS ... and btw, we have no "workers" on this forum :rofl:
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"yes" ie little bit not much
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does it mean anything that feb gold has retraced mid Oct to early Dec downswing by .78ish?
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Bobc, http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/20098-oil-bullish-bearish.html#post201620 See how easy that was ?!