zdo

Here are some more reasons you* should not buy gold Of Two Minds - The Root of Rising Inequality: Our "Lawnmower" Economy (hint: we're the lawn) 1956: "America Peaked Back Then and We've Been In Decline Ever Since" Comparing the 1930s and Today | International Man Credit Bubble Bulletin: Weekly Commentary: Bubble Economy or Not? *’you’... depending on who ‘you’ are. ‘You’ Statists and collectivists would certainly not want or need it. (If ‘you’ think’ you’’re not a statist / collectivist, but ‘you’ wouldn’t buy gold - maybe ‘you’ should check again whether ‘you’ are a statist / collectivist or not... :cackle: ) PS Please forgive me for posting while gold is going up

bobc, You are right. Posters don't show up in this thread unless PM's are already going up... PM"s are usually not a good trading instrument ... PM's are a bandwagon instrument... hardly anyone on the wagon right now... good time to accumulate for wealth preservation... Took a very long easter weekend... played golf a couple times. Now, I'm ambivalent about ever playing golf again... Driver ok. Putter ok. But short game sucks so bad it sucks all the joy out the other two.:crap: and re "golf is sex. 18 times. most times it's bad 'sex' " Looking back across the years, for the most part I'm 'proud' of where my tool and balls have gone (and not gone)... but, even though I've been a guest on some of the fine courses, I can't say the same about where my golf tools and balls have gone and done. This time the only thing I really relished was the color and beauty and quiet and serenity of a few holes on the back nine... ... still got some wheels... back to singles tennis ... win some sex

hey guys ... been out on a 11 day 'easter weekend' ... jpenny, you astutely noted that not all methods are equally enhanced by simn. re your 'trending trading' example, the closer you get to true trend trading the more this is true. For these types of systems your nature needs to be one ready for long waiting ... more often than not while in drawdown... and also for long waiting when in the green. Trend Traders need sim training for that like they need another fkn hole in their head... (btw this is related to my theories about 'getting real... which I hope to have time to explain a little bit... all the while acknowledging it won't be very useful generally because each sentence deserves about 14 paragraphs ... thankfully my audience is very tiny) Basically, the more factors considered in a trade decision, the more ‘simn’ you need. Certainly, the more switching between system or method types you do the more ‘simn’ you need to do. Also, not all methods are equally enhanced by training... or practice. some are better back tested instead of ‘simn’. :haha: but re: I haven’t discussed this yet in this thread but, paradoxically, the desired outcome for traders is to go “sim” as quickly as possible. Will get into this - ie structured practice (and timeframes, etc.) and my 'optimal sequencing' of trader development as time permits... I still think we need to 'repost' this conversation into a different thread... Haintt, we have SO-O-O hijacked your freakn thread !

jpmonybags, re: When I have a theory I’ve really settled on, I’ll be glad to let ya’ll know. I’m going on my own ‘facts’ - observation of hundreds of beginning traders - mostly accounts in the brokerage business, also a sizeable percentage of ‘trading buddies’ and associates,... and :shame: even some seminar 'victims' . Most of these encounters occurred before the internet - certainly before social media - which makes for a different quality of relating and ‘disclosure’ I’ve found... Also, I have now mentored 24 traders from whom I compiled ‘history’/profiles. When they started with me were at the 2nd cusp. ie almost all where surviving / inconsistently profitable, almost all had around 5 years experience already... (Generally, they had obvious blocks to flow and were amenable to my approach - but that’s another topic.) Of all those samples, the ones who got real at the beginning grouped heavily with those who made it and those who paper traded (and back tested, etc) grouped heavily with those who were ‘loosers’ There’s something those who spontaneously 'get real' at the beginning get at an unconscious level about life (and maybe trading) ( ... that the voice of trading ‘thinks’ sim will get it for them and it won’t !!! .) I have some ideas but don’t have time today to dig into it even with my usual hafass, obscure descriptions... I have never associated an easy/easier road for those who ‘get real’ out the gate. “ over anxious knuckle heads” :rofl: is just one of the serial challenges they encounter...

We should move this material to a different thread for the general audience. hantt may be long gone... jpenny, I am loathe to think of you as "the voice of trading" too...  but then you fall in line with “Truth of the matter is, that it probably won't make a difference whether you trade "live", trade "sim", or just sit and watch.” ... Comments: Yes - which one a beginning trader does won’t cause success. But, which one a beginning trader does is an indicator of whether s/he can make it through the ‘early years’ ... much like higher mcat test scores indicate higher probs of making it through med school. Sad, but it appears you ‘normals’ simply cannot fathom this. Ya’ll are driven by imagination of what the 'other' is like instead of real experience. So, all the industry driven ‘programming psyop’ continues. In part I’m simply saying beginning traders can find out much quicker than most do whether this game is for them or not. But much more importantly ----- beneath these bhvrs of which one you do first / how you start are crucial inner attitudes and virtues. Which one you do is actually an expression of those... and these are the factors that will determine whether or not you “Find your own way!” zdo. Those who spontaneously 'get real' out the gate have an 'undocumented' edge... a few noobs may be able to learn from this... 'voice of trading' bs notwithstanding... micheal av, I agree with you about not being influenced and inhibited by the ‘statistics’. Over the years, I have posted quite a bit about ‘being a sample of one’ and ultimately was getting at the same with “When you first trade, you and you alone place yourself at one of the two cusps.” I do advise, however, that beginners look at these ‘statistics’ of high failure rates and at least conclude “I should avoid what the crowd is doing big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. While I'm at it, I should probably avoid big time what the 'voice of trading' memes are telling me too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!." Sad, but it appears ‘normals’ simply cannot fathom that either “It is just as difficult and dangerous to try to free a people who want to live in slavery as it is to try to enslave a people who want to live in freedom.” ~Niccolo Machiavelli // "Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs... .... Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected... " ~ George Soros // // “You do not believe. You only believe that you believe.” –Samuel Coleridge “Belief is a wound that knowledge heals.” –Ursula K. Le Guin

As noted earlier, have been building a long scale trade in far far out CL futures... in the green now... Planning to start more heavily locking it in with shorts on closer month contracts on approaches to ~46... ...will still build this scale trade for a couple more years ... planning to add to it all the way down into the low teens... btw - scale trades hog up capital and :helloooo: take a long time ... :missy: not in my wheel house really...

Again - I think you're being very inconsiderate. I wouldn't treat my wife that way... You just now picking up on that? dang bob, you are slow. :missy:

(still think you are being inconsiderate to her I would never treat my wife like that)

cycles (btw I don't really 'want' to short the index(es) ... they 'need' to be much higher... ) (and also... re golf I'm scheduled next mon afternoon to play the first time this year (and maybe last time :doh: ) ) most games are about winning some sex golf is sex. 18 times. most times it's bad 'sex' )

bob, back nibbling short the indexes again... we'll see. bak on topic will a gs ratio retrace be 'meaningful' ?

Hi hantt Welcome. Let me be blunt. Most who enter this lab don’t know if they are an experimenter or a lab rat. And, sadly, there is a running game to delay you finding out. The purpose of this msg is to help you find out quickly. I’m responding to you in part because I can understand to some degree how “I am not very good at socializing or networking, and being technically good at something only gets you so far in a corporate environment.” could make trading look attractive to you. Preface1 (not at the top ?  ) It may be easy to infer that extreme extremes are required from much of what follows about traits and attitudes. Extreme extremes are not required. However, you do need to be pretty far out on the ‘tails’ ... being in the 1st and 2nd deviations won’t cut it... Preface2 (from in the middle ?  ) --- Warning: The’ voice of trading’ will disagree with and most likely attempt to strike down what I’m going to say - maybe vehemently. Instead they will provide a narrative embedded in an established trading education psy-op that is sustained and supported by a trail of many reasonable, well meaning ‘useful idiots’. For you, they may attempt to significantly soften what follows. You can take solace there with them. Or - you can get real. Re As long as your orientation remains rooted in ‘production work’ your results will be stunted at best. Examine your own ‘structures’ beneath your use of words like “wage” and “effort” etc. etc You didn’t utilize those words accidentally. Trading is NOT production work. Trading is NOT service work. Trading is performance work.* Trading is “predator vs predator” zdo... ie direct competition. ie in actual trades there is no consideration for what’s best for or the ‘safety’ of others or the group/company. One can master every trading technique known to man and invent a few more, but if the prominence of performance work is not rooted all the way down to your hind brains, and limbed throughout your ‘limbic system ’and flowering in your outer cortexes, you and your money are likely just fodder contributing to the winners. Ie Your unconscious has got to be joyfully automated to be takin’ more than you need... else you’re... a lab rat... If this in not in your true nature, then you and your equity are part of an experiment! hantt, if this in not in your true nature, see that little hole in the wall ! ? Get out while you can! Take a similar exploration of investing (in ventures where you have material participation), and gradually building a portfolio as prudently and balanced as you can... and stay away from trading. Please think again. Forgive my rawness... but that is illusion. Trading results rarely “reflect” this mentality of only getting what you put in at all... and certainly never consistently . With any single trade, (or with any series of trades, or with trading in general, ) one can do almost no work and reap huge rewards OR one can do incredible amounts of ‘extra effort’ and good work and still be a net loser. The two are not correlated. Period. If you “don't mind hard work”, you will have to be willing and able to, if needed, put equal amount of time and work into ‘know thyself’ type stuff as into learning basics and techniques... and, btw, all that 'work' combined may require much more than ’40 hour’ weeks. Everyone encounters different challenges in their development as traders and for some the ‘discrepancies’ of where they are and where they need to be will be seen to be too wide to make it worth staying with the discomfort of the discrepancies. Shift “don't mind hard work” toward a more general ‘self competitive whatever it takes attitude’... even though it may require much more OR much less ‘effort’ than you ever imagined... paradoxically striving to become non striving etc etc... to learn how to recover super quickly from victories and defeats, wins and losses, rights and wrongs, lucks and no lucks...etc etc etc etc ... Traps are many! Here’s one. The ‘voice of trading’ will always try to ease you into the game. From a variety of (btw - real, not ‘online’/ virtual) perspectives I have been involved in (or had privileged access to) the development of a sample of 700 + traders and I can categorically tell you from that experience - if you have to be eased into this game ( via sim trading, etc etc etc) your probs of making it are very low. NOTE!: This is a test everyone takes. It is predictive of success or failure. Few realize they are even taking it or took it. Upon coming to this game you can locate two cusps. The first cusp is on the transition from looser to surviving. The ‘voice of trading’ serves at this cusp. The second cusp is shifting from surviving to thriving. Based on that sample of developing traders I’ve been exposed to, the ones who start by jumping to the 2nd cusp have a better chance. (However, that’s no guarantee of making it ). I surmise the subjects of all the ‘trading wizards’ books (and the profiles Analyst75 has been posting,etc) also ‘start’ themselves at the 2nd cusp... by simply ‘saying so’! - basically. When you first trade, you and you alone place yourself at one of the two cusps. Trading is that kind of game. Performance work is that kind of work. So, Jump to your cusp. Find out quickly... time is too limited to dilly dally... the greats find out if they are greats at the beginning! They KNOW! - even if they fail at the beginning!!!!!!!! Again - If you are put off by this msg you can always run back to the crowd where the ‘voice of trading’ will be waiting to ‘help’ you. I’d say - if you are put off by this msg I’d suggest you get out the game now. Enjoyed spending ‘lunch’ with you. Let’s do it again sometime. Zdo ** To be more accurate - All work is actually a combination of all three types of work - production, service, and performance- and ‘normal’ work typically includes more balanced proportion of all three types of work . Point is - Trading is at an extreme - with miniscule, negligible proportions of production and service work. Plus, the performance work itself is not quite normal either... posturing will get you nowhere... and in all performance work, your weaknesses will be revealed ... but in trading performance work they are only revealed to yourself... etc etc.

crakeshm, Looks like patuca has stepped out to lunch (forever? Hope not) - so I will take a very general swipe at it. Brooks and those successfully applying his methods are applying unmentioned ‘rules’ in their utilization of the ma. Brooks uses the MA as a central tendency to ‘ground’ the wet ware. But - to be blunt - instead of trying to develop or stick to ‘mono-rules’, the ‘meaning’ on these approaches to ma's must be taken statistically... even noobs should be attempting this from the beginning! Because ... similar/analog (or exact) price pattern approaches to the central tendency will not have exact (or similar/analog) results or ‘meanings’. It takes some time observing and using a central tendency to ‘ground’ the wet ware before you develop reliable, multiple ways to project probable outcomes... instead of relying on ‘mono-rules’ ... Another way of expressing this - at a system (or method) level, trading rules and simple moving averages don’t mix. Statistically, it’s a fkn wash at best. This backtest to nowhere prematurely ends the careers of many otherwise bright traders (... sometimes it’s best to believe those who have gone before you... but if you must - find out for yourself... ) (almost ) ... Also, for what it’s worth, standard ma’s need to be displaced ( .5 the length of the ma) bars back and a projected regression used to fill in the missing gap / to catch it up to current bar. (more almost ) ...Another technique for increasing ma’s efficacy is to start them again after each significant pivot instead of dragging a bunch of unuseful data into the calculation. For a while, displaced 2 period ma’s were popular because they were, in effect, accomplishing something closer to starting the ma again after each significant pivot... unbeknownst to most using them... Many wet wares do not find them necessary at all (... some of those peeps will even preach that YOU should never dare even glance at them ... not realizing they are (unconsciously) ’calculating’/projecting at least one (if not more) central tendency in their head all the damp time  ) As your screen time accumulates, don’t be surprised if you may wake up one morning or midsession suddenly holding ma’s in a negative light and drop them... btw, if that happens, it’s better not to ‘judge’ them. Simply realize your wetware no longer needs them visually represented on your charts because they are interfering with your more accurate and preferable ‘non math’ wetware calculations and 'contexting' that will allow you to do better than .6 with working out “ How far is far enough and how close is risky”. etc. etc ... But also don’t be surprised if after significant screen time with them, they suddenly fall into place for you... and become really useful... And ... If you’re one of those who dropped them or never found them useful. also don’t be surprised if one day you wake up needing and attempting to manually draw your wetware version of a central tendency back on your charts... ie “Find your own way” !!!!!!!!!! zdo hth zdo

:offtoplic: "Racing ahead of change and pursuing the illusion of reality promotes confusion. " :wtf?: do you have the courage to click? https://medium.com/dan-sanchez/how-inflation-drinks-your-milkshake-3bc22ba57e67#.n26mhiryz Understanding the Federal Reserve?s Shell Game ? Dan Sanchez I'm zdo and I do not approve this message (...even though I been saying same for a couple of months now... and it brings ...excellent opportunities for traders !! ) Of Two Minds - Do Any of the Current Rallies Pass "The Sniff Test"? No. don’t fight the fed... ? Back on topic imo, in terms of fiat, ultimately these 'global' negative rates are laying the joists for a pretty high (however temporary) floor in PM's .... Have a great weekend all

... discover emptiness in "misfortune”... stopped out again on the early entry portion of proprietary shorts in indexes. will still start getting short... somehow ... over next week or so ... bobc, hope you held your long... zdo Walking the Razor?s Edge Toward Enlightenment : Waking Times

...close to B.E. on long scale trade (previously discussed in the Gold Bullish or Bearish thread) REGARDLESS - will be 'hedging' up aggressively on short side over the next couple of weeks... I’m not always right... but when I’m wrong, I’m still right (ps it's not apparent, but you can accurately project humility here... not hubris)

agree that's generally how I'm playing it too ... but wouldn't be surprised to see little bit higher highs this current move... ie this thread is entirely fukt up now... sun and zdo agree on something... Let's fix that sht fast ---- I could kill you with kindness, but shoving you into traffic just saves so much time... :rofl: //// On average, every ten minutes someone shows up from the future at a psych unit to stop Trumpf

u pay pal /// subterain, let's go back to your OP . Is it really 'worth' nearly $2000 to begin with? please reply asap I'm so excited I can't wait

dats a spam good deal ... course you could just buy a used BP book...

fwiw was stopped out of indexes just after 1 PM yesterday for small loss fwiw loading up again short today and mon... fwiw (and back on topic) is it true that Canada has now fully divested itself of any gold reserves ? ya'll have a great weekend

re: . Isn’t it just as logical to say that Gold is somehow affecting the price of OIL ? This is a little like saying this pony will run well if that other pony doesn’t ???generally re: these correlations you’re discussing... only one I’ve been watching lately is the USDJPY and PM correlation ... but haven’t been putting any ‘value’ even in that one except for when the correlation temporarily ‘backs off’. I learned many many years ago it’s best for me to trade each chart/instrument independently and leave the ‘if x goes up, then y will... do whatever’ to the media psy-op talkingheads.... and those that have a flair for these kinds of 'if's...(or an imagined flair... really they are hypnotized by the psy-op narratives) Re: I think I make much sharper distinctions between spreads and hedges ... I don’t do PM spreads - except for occasionally bringing a (very long term) long silver / short dow spread out of retirement... I maintain entry points for this one monthly with very wide stop in orders... and if and when it ever again gets going (before I’m too old and out of the game), then leg in and out... ...the (also very long term) PM ratio trade discussed previously is a third sharp distinction. re: Weird place to be looking for ‘test’ imo... This context reminds me of http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/volume-spread-analysis/17901-vsa-questions.html#post201581 re: :haha:Look dick, you’re either my fkn uncle or you’re not! Don’t jerk me around. I’m already attachment disordered enuf. re: Sorry bobc. You deserve better... but I decided some years ago not to post charts and screen shots anymore. TL typically only gets just a few minutes a day and it’s just too time consuming to take stuff off TS charts that shouldn’t be seen and also put stuff on specific to the conversation at hand (like ‘plain’ volume in this case) ... and label appropriately ... and ...etc.... If you want to follow up to see if this ‘test’ and can’t find anything on your own, check GBLX E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - Commodities Charts, Quotes and News CBOTM DJIA mini-sized Futures - Commodities Charts, Quotes and News GBLX E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures - Commodities Charts, Quotes and News

Hey bub, don’t be talkin’ down my ‘say so’ ( ie my ‘say so’ is just as good as anybody else’s ‘say so’ ) ...seriously - let’s just have faith no one in here is that stoopid US stock index futures Well sht, then I already screwed up bob :rofl: Already started yesterday... fwiw, I typically do my initiating/initial loads based on 'time'... not waiting for their 'say so'... then add more (or not) depending on what ‘they’ do... Btw and back on topic... Do you (or others) find the “Distribution” patterns you discussed to hold up well in PM’s ?

:off topic: Instead of buying stocks, I would like to short them starting today and tomorrow. Does anyone know a good way to do that? ;bak on topic; what would that do to gold?

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again" how many factors did this article skip?

Mani, Best to give yourself a golden C Also, to show us how you 'think', maybe post some oo code with methods demonstrating exits from trades. All the best, zdo

https://monetary-metals.com/gold-silver-ratio-breakout-report-28-feb-2016/ :missy: lapacho tea