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zdo

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by zdo

  1. When and how did this go from a conversation with Gamera and his trading to a conversation about Gamera and his trading ?
  2. Making more trouble down the line ... with lines... Not equidistant or pretty like jp’s... but 2nd attached is LONGsNOSTRAIGHTLINES.gif picture is of that same morning with the buystop entries shown. These are program generated lines (NOT straight lines!) from one of my automated systems. New dots / line extensions to the right form at the close of a bar. (Sellstop entries, and two trailing stop ‘lines’ not shown on this illustration. ) Believe it or not these points / lines are formed from intra- and inter-bar ‘price action’ plus a couple of volume tricks/tells ( but btw it’s not price action that finds SETUPs ie starts and stops the ‘line drawing’ and it’s also not price action that triggers take profit exits on this system... fwiw the ‘strength’ of this system is not these ‘lines’. the ‘strength’ of this system is how it goes dormant (and / or also sizes way down ) in congestions ) With a little bit of cherry picking, I could find better illustrations of this ‘indicator’ than that morning ... just glancing at results, it seems long SETUPs were activated a few too many times = a couple extra stopout losses, a couple of reverses at a loss, a couple of reverses at a small profit (like short at 10:41 back long at 10:53... stopped out a 11:01), etc etc. Happens all the time...typical of automation probabilistic fuzziness... Still - other than these few ‘synchness difficulties’, most winners only took a few ticks of heat... So while the buy triggers look a little ‘warped ’ to me for that morning, the sellstop entries for that day ‘computed’ a whole lot ‘tighter’ to price... more ‘resonance’, fewer stopouts, etc. See 1st attached SHORTsNOSTRAIGHTLINES.gif of last half of the same day’s shorts for this system. In addition to running tighter to price, these ‘lines’ were generally angled more parallel than the buystop entries in the morning,... more parallel (and maybe even more equidistant from each other ) like the straight lines jpbabsonbags posted. Fwiw, I still manually use ‘parallelogram grids’ on daily charts ... been using them since the mid 90’s... years ago posted a few ‘parallelogram grid’ YM charts in here maybe... Anyways - when your up angle and down angle ‘settings’ of ‘parallelogram grids’ needs to be changed - That means something ! just sayin (oh sht 'just sayin' is spreading...) PS, jp I liked your post just fine before the edit
  3. “The pitfalls of group interlock are quite as insidious as the pitfalls of one’s own fantasizing. “ John C. Lilly MD
  4. “Rather than give him the pass on ‘well promises just simply can’t all be kept when you’re dealing with the real world in DC’, I’m gonna have to come down in the ‘Trump is just another bold faced liar sellout’ camp. ” Bill Bored
  5. “nothing that someone else is required to provide is a right.” just sayin'
  6. Do you fear a govt shutdown? I’d bet I’m even more skeerd of the guvmnt ‘staying open’... just sayin’
  7. Somehow he got through this whole dam thang without uttering the ‘deep st...’ word https://thetollonline.com/2017/04/21/prisons-of-pleasure-or-pain-huxleys-brave-new-world-vs-orwells-1984/
  8. The KPW did it. https://www.inverse.com/article/30643-power-outage-nyc-sf-la-coincidence http://www.meoso.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/389140_413386202035790_1936011835_n.jpg “The complete lack of evidence is the surest sign the conspiracy is working” Shanti Goldstein
  9. “What we’re looking for is a (false) flag large enough to overlay two states” 'Operation Gotham Shield': US government will 'simulate 10,000-ton nuke blast over New York and New Jersey' next week
  10. I would like to see a poll of how many think the problem is on the far right (of the last animated graph :rofl:) Visualizing The Collapse Of The Middle Class In 20 Major U.S. Cities
  11. https://capitalistexploits.at/2017/04/world-whack-absurd-unintended-consequence-abnormally-low-rates/
  12. Sunday night might be fun ... just Sayin...
  13. Gamera, Do you think dbP would also rate you at 7 (on a scale of 0 (not) to 10 (very)) on how congruently your method and trading mirrors the intended essence of the SLA method? Have a great weekend all
  14. exactly... what I just been sayin ...
  15. and trying to get out of the way early before the real posters deliver their reams of content https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/facebook-shuts-down-pro-le-pen-posts-as-french-election-nears/ MIT Expert, Fmr DoD Science Advisor Release Damning Report: "Syrian Gas Attack Was Staged" Of Two Minds - The Left's Descent to Fascism
  16. ...and zdo replied, “Of course I get trading signals from space. Doesn’t everybody?” https://www.quantamagazine.org/20170418-fast-radio-bursts-repeat-what-are-they-made-of/ https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150310-strange-stars-pulse-to-the-golden-mean/
  17. Gamera, On a scale of 0 (not) to 10 (very) - how congruently would you say your method and trading mirror the intended essence of the SLA method?
  18. Now we know where JP lives https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160927-ultra-diffuse-galaxy-dragonfly-44/ and... btw There is no deep dark spate https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170330115254.htm
  19. Gamera, this is not very well organized ... banged it out in just a few minutes so feel free to ask for clarifications. Assumption: you really do “know what [your] metrics are through back testing and studying swing point breaks, stride breaks, breakouts, continuations and retracements.” Assumption: you are capitalized sufficiently to size your trades in units and multiples of units Re: "Most of my rules are in the first few posts to the thread, I'm considering re-evaluating these metrics as they are often getting caught, doesn't help that I'm executing the plan as poorly as I am" And "I often find myself avoiding trades because I think something is likely to happen" And “if PA does not move quickly doubts set in and I tighten up, or I don't take the trade or the stop out rule is just tagged.” These recent things you’ve mentioned indicate limbic system / mid-brain (and even hind brain) issues and the only sure way to 'fix' that is exposure, exposure, exposure to the very things feared. There’s not much you can do cognitively to address it except to 1) learn to monitor when cns is susceptible to being sympathetically momentarily overwhelmed (which will lead to uncon start altered perceiving and breaking script to even more cautious or the opposite and truncating/changing the rules, etc, etc ) and 2) to work on coming to more conscious acceptance of the ‘uncertainty’ of every trade. re: 'changes' 'adjustments' Whatever you do change, if anything, make sure it facilitates taking signal - ideally, to the point where you take EVERY “triggered”. Assign real-time confidence levels to what you’re seeing. Clearly delineate the PA’s (or price levels) that would immediately nullify that current situation. Then - Take EVERY “triggered”. Base the size of the trade on your real-time confidence levels. We can’t not project. We can’t not “think something is likely to happen”(... and guess what something does happen - quite often :helloooo::rofl: ) Consciously calling up and acknowledging ‘bias’ beats the sht out of avoiding, denying, suppressing projections. Its influence is much greater when it operates from the background than when it is constantly held up to the light and PA’s (or price levels) that would immediately nullify that bias are clearly delineated. Assign real-time confidence levels to what you’re projecting, too. You can actually learn to use this ‘soft information’ instead of trying to throw it away (like all the 'rational at any cost teachers' advise) Whatever you change, if anything, make sure to structure it to enable your entry (and exit) decisions to slide towards ‘automatic’ ie twd an ‘unconscious competence’. You see it. You take it as it forms! Period! Your new decisions become sizing and then once in the trade, assigning real time ‘stay’ to the trade. ‘Stay’ is how commited you are to staying with the trade - ie in loss or in profit, either take all the mults off quickly, take them off incrementally, or hold them all until (near) when swing exhausts, or trail stops, or etc etc ... Making such a transition is quite simple, but it is not necessarily easy. (It’s an act of creating a resolving structure, not removing or solving a problem, btw.) Even though I appreciated the wisdom of taking EVERY “triggered” long ago, it was not until I had automated many systems that it sunk in to where I could do it without dissonance. Once I really committed to it, I simply practiced it until I couldn’t fail at it. I don’t know how many transactions you’ve done this month in NQ, but it doesn’t seem like many . In contrast, I’ve already done hundreds in the NQ and I typically only manually trade ndx’s actively 1.5 - 2.5 hours a day. A signal forms and when it’s triggered I’m in at 2 - 4 mults if trigger is aligned with my bias and 1 mults if trigger is against my bias - period. Size is all I have to consider at entry. The statistical ‘quality’ etc ( not the‘prettiness’) of setups or triggers forms the basis for the sizing consideration. re: stays, I commit to a stay decision as early after entry as possible. Long ago when I first started this, my “stay” decisions were subject to the ‘risk averse in profits’ bias, etc. but over the years have become more and more realistically attuned to PA instead of my internal stuff... Everyone has different difficult challenges... Again, ultimately the key is practice it until you can’t fail at it. So re: “if PA does not move quickly doubts set in and I tighten up, or I don't take the trade or the stop out rule is just tagged.” Yes I too have also pulled out early more than once and also been just barely stopped out a few times, but I have also taken EVERY trade. ie I have also participated in every good, medium, and great swing - which vastly offsets the occurrences of the other two outcomes you mentioned (and also other possible outcomes you didn’t mention.) Sugg: some traders find improvement re: those “avoiding trades because I think something is likely to happen” and “if PA does not move quickly” issues by placing stop order first before placing entry order. Sugg: Btw if you have an unusually high incidence of “stop out rule is just tagged” then consider waiting to put on your size where you would have previously placed your stops. Sugg: If you are not actively utilizing all 5 time frames you have been posting, something to consider would be to drop all frames you do not actively utilize. “utilize” is the key word here. How much real utility to YOU do each of your ‘duration shots’ ( time frames ) have? Other than that, notice that I have not advised or even suggested you change your representations of the markets/ data forms, your perception modes, or your trading methods at all. Wishing you all the best
  20. On the ‘medium’ time frame (1 hr? 10 min ? ... 10 min) frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages over time of how accurate ‘what you see’ is? Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?
  21. mentioned this some time ago, but ... for trading paper gold, it's worth repeating http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/04/JPYApr1217.png http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/04/RegressionApr1217.png How long has it been like this? When will it break? When it does, ... ? Have a great holiday all.
  22. No. and We've discussed quite some time ago that even if he 'kept his promises' he still couldn't fix this mess... However, what does surprise me, jp, is why - omg WHY? - you keep harping on the deep state? https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/04/13/want-to-understand-the-deep-state-here-is-your-deep-deep-state/
  23. On the longest time frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages (over time) of how accurate ‘what you see’ is? Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?
  24. Trump Flips On Five Core Key Campaign Promises In Under 24 Hours
  25. Facebook's new guide to spotting fake news http://thehill.com/policy/technology/328587-fcc-has-received-40-complaints-about-fake-news-since-october
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