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zdo
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by zdo
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These have been busy days and nights so I have simply not been able to participate in (or hardly even look at )a thread I started as much as I normally would. re: I’m glad you’re still here, girl. If and when you leave, will you please tell us why? re: I wonder what percentage of browsers projected the op as an indirect cry for help. Of the responses before yours, 3 did and looks like you did too. Only 2 took the question at face value. re: This is off topic because my opinion of ‘psychologists’ isn’t really relevant to the question. I am admiring your candor in another thread “Look for a psychologist ... – there are a few good ones out there.”. But my opinions, (garnered from both living in one of the most ‘therapist rich’ metropolitan areas on the planet and in areas where they are more typically represented) are not so much about the quality of therapists statistically but about the vary small odds of getting matched up with someone who can go the distance. And, in my opinion, those small odds plummet to virtually no odds of a trader getting matched up appropriately. re This one made me laugh All four of those 'guesses' were intended to get at least a grin... re Thanks. Check some of my posts - you’ll find that I’m a serial ‘it ain’t discipline’ poster. Maybe we can get into this some in another thread… I started the thread to add to my serious and silly list of reasons ‘they’ (the ‘helpers’ – announced trading doctors, psychologists, coaches, and lay advisors) just vanish from forums without goodbyes. I know the forum medium itself is an obstacle…. And while the clients may be “motivated” , that doesn’t mean traders are good therapand (horrid emergent terminology…). Those two reasons, for me, answer why a large percentage of ‘them’ leave. But I still have curiosity about more reasons related to ‘their’ own dynamics and experiences, etc. that trigger them to just fade away the way they do. Thanks for any and all answers to that. All the best, zdo
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Backstory is pretty simple – they come and they go in the threads. Noticed it and I’m curious what happens. Introduced a few snide possibilities in the o.p., but was seriously asking if any others had insights into what happens to ‘them’ ( ‘them’ being the serial professionals (MD, PHd, licensed etcs. ) that come and go on TL ). Across the years, I continue to evolve my own (currently somewhat ambivalent but mostly neutral) opinions about trading therapists and coaches – but that is not really germane to this specific topic / question. If you have insights, please share. If not, no problem. Most of the question threads I start go with some reactivity and few or no answers. nbd…
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DugDug, Thanks. With this line of thinking, can you direct and relate it to the why 'they' leave / original topic? Also - re: "habits and thought processes." habits ? - definitely thought processes ? - not so sure about that paradigm anymore. That's getting to where the 'psychology' may be falling down. Thought may not be as central as we would like to think
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RE: Well for one - they are gone. Plus - Going on my impressions of the body of work contributed from ‘them’ so far, I'm thinking I would get much more authentic answers from traders (with own life examined,etc) than ‘them’. I should note, these questions are more about the patterns of how 'they' appear on the scene and then disappear, and the dynamics when here - than are they a criticism of the ‘helpers’. As DugDug and JWBTrader are pointing out, they definitely have their own issues - even though most of them cloak those issues to a fault. Is this accurate ? Trading 'therapists' are NOT regular 'therapists'. Is this accurate ? Many of the issues faced by traders that are pparently 'psychological' , really have no psychological solutions at all. re: "Why not figure things out on your own ... " Soultrader, there you go. Shut it down. Site no longer needed…
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What happens to our forum trading psychologists / psychiatrists ? Seems some stay a little longer than others but none of them stay for very long. Some thoughts / questions on why: They fear being peer… you’re basic’ power in the helping professions’ trips don’t work very well with traders. ??” They are really on forum to recruit clients – and when that doesn’t work they peel off ?? Their general and individual models are inadequate and incomplete for ‘helping’ traders and forum ‘work’ accelerates that realization ?? They are ‘wounded healers’ and once they work through their own issue(s), they just don’t need to help anymore ?? Thoughts ?
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'Calculated' POC is always inside a VA. Actual POC... different story
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I've heard of regenerating PP's at intervals through the day. Does anyone have ideas or experience with VWAP's that have multiple start / restart points instead of just once at the beginning of one's session? thx
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emios, Most of the replies to your question answer re total volume – which has not changed. My understanding of your question was that you were asking about the volume reported on the ‘tape’, correct? I’ll take a stab at answering that. I was told by an ES trader who uses the tape exclusively that it took him about a month to fully adjust…. that it was a process of understanding the changes, compensating / changing, testing - and then he was ‘back in business’ But he may be an exception. For one, not just any ole brain has the necessary knack to read via numbers instead of graphically day in and day out. Also, many may have been able to discern their ‘patterns’ in the old stream, but simply not be wired to learn new equivalent patterns (easily enough for it to be worth it) – so they are out of the game or their performance seriously compromised. In sum, a whiz savant could utilize either stream. Less than whiz savants may only be good at one of them, etc… and most people are simply good at neither... etc What attracts you to do tape reading? Have you done it before? If you never tape read the old stream, then you do not have to adjust!
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Behr, imo, the best place to start would be the early writings of Tom Joseph hth zdo
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rsi(c,2) why? it never fails
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op, et al, Needing to apply discipline more than ~ once a month is a sign of big trouble and the whole trading operation is in jeopardy . Use the sign as sufficient stimulus to start re-looking for the major and serious 'structural' changes needed to make with self and / or system... hth and merry christmas and happy holidays to all.
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General answer ... 3 basic options GV = Global Variable ELC/ADE = EasyLanguageCollections/All data everywhere Code in the 2400 chart that calculates indicator based on 6765 instead of 2400 (if you were using time bars, 4th option - you could use Data1 and Data2, etc) See TS Support forum for how to 's on all the above... Don't really have enough info about your situation but ADE is probably your best long term solution for this. hth
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When I think of trading, I think of trading… When I think of managing money I think of Compliance with a bunch of nit picky BS Marketing, promotion, selling Trading Handholding ( / talking accts that really shouldn’t leave into staying and wishing accounts that should leave would, etc Trying to attract talent and then delegate (what is essentially) trust When I think of trading, I think of trading… hmmm
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clmacdougal, What areas are in the"now" of Steidlemayers work right now for you? Anything in this thread? What have you gotten from this thread so far? etc? These are curiosity, not challenge, questions btw. Thanks. zdo
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OPM = other peoples money
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waveslider, I did it a couple times back in the late 80's. Simply didn't enjoy it. The 'business' responsibilities and etc of OPM just wasn't my cup of tea. But you may be fine with it. A friend of mine got his CTA about the same time, did it through '03 and retired and never seemed to have any of the issues I had with it. Have you done any OPM at all? Testing the waters with a small GP type arrangement would be the route I would have taken had I known then what I know now about myself Hope this helps. zdo
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re: "What is your limit to assume a change in the buyers/sellers waves? (i.e. I' m using a similar setup on a 2k volume chart , and my signal is the 2second bar of reversal after steep bid/ask waves)" That’s pretty granular. For this, I use charts that print about 5 bars per minute at peak times and just use 1st ‘color’ change on a fairly fast modified HA for the steep pivots. Resets gets slightly more complicated for congestions… re: "Do you think that there' s a way to track market_order/limit_order from ZenFire feed?Any existing Ninja DOM indicator customized?" Don’t know. Don’t use Ninja DOM. There's been quite a bit of talk herein about common feeds... my comment - I don't trust any of them at this level re: "Mkt_order/limit_order dynamics. tape order not changing DOM volumes? I don’t think I understand your question. a stab at it... Generally, I haven't attended to the 'Mkt_order/limit_order dynamics' very deeply - usefulness of the patterns are extremely context dependent. re Dom I personally have DOM numbers showing but only glance at it occasionally to see if things are extremely thick or thin.... currently have no other uses for that information...
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re “Market conditions” The simplest way I can put it is the order flow patterns need different interpretations btwn, say, unfolding flat areas and steep areas on a chart – even though the raw patterns printed by the measures may be verisimilar in shape and scale. ie Virtually identical patterns point to going with the move in some cases and in other cases fading the move. Also, only in certain conditions do I even refer to these measures and the rest of the time they are ignored. re “min/max of a swing” Yes basically. Anytime the auction changes from bid to ask (and v v) (or to some cases of neutral / balanced), I zero the count and start new one at the bar where the previous prevalence shifted. re: “postulating a change in behaviour of CurrentBid/CurrentAsk” Not me. (but also not saying the information couldn’t be used that way) ‘Trades’ not on the CurrentBid or Ask are ‘proxies’ for market order type participations. Briefly - ‘Sustainable’ price moves seem to have both extent and an obviously close balance / ratio of ‘mkt’ order participation with (/ just under) ‘limit’ order participation. ‘Crap’ moves seem to skew a preponderance of one or the other, including but not limited to one summing to positive and the other to negative. Many terminations show swing level negative divergence between price extents and indicator extents ( but I haven’t run stats on that phenom and rarely use that information…) hth zdo … if it looks like I’m pulling an Urma - it's bcse I AM pulling an Urma - just not for the same reasons.
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Yes, superimposed on / in conjunction with / comparing measures of C<or>CurrentBid(and CurrentAsk), there are certain ‘market conditions’ where up and ticks are more than sufficient proxy. Also, restarting the ‘net’ at individual price swing pivots instead of summing it continuously from an ‘open’ or restarting at each individual bar can be quite helpful in certain ‘market conditions’…
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flyingdutchmen, Is your offer for helping still open? I got another one ... (that may or may not be helpful to the many, btw…) Many thanks.
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advert2000, Trading IS predator vs predator… but you don’t eat your 'kill'. You just take his chips. Going solely from your post and reply – I suggest that you go inward and serially kill all your trading metaphors. If you are one of the few who really does well with opm, then start a legit hedge fund. If you are just drawn to cooperation, then maybe start a business with some good people – even go into mlm. Basically, from me and the other responses, the msg to you is that your intentions and ‘trading’ don’t seem to be congruent. But - these are YOUR life lessons to learn. And whether you learn them from the experience of others or from your own processes I wish you All the best. zdo
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Jacob, The answer is highly system specific and those who generalize ‘best’ levels from their own specific systems aren’t really helping you or anyone else. For some systems, routine 40% drawdowns are appropriate. Otoh, some systems shouldn’t let more than ‘coffee money’ go – ie way under 2% per trade, etc. See the extremes? Both extreme answers are correct – when the underlying system is considered first. You're really asking two questions. One is about size. The other is about stops. Know the best numbers for your system. The Q and A is paramount to survival and thriving. Be aware things like - The best fit fixed percentage is unlikely to be the best fit fixed percentage a year (month, week, whatever) from now… One way of dealing with these quesitons (not necessarily the best btw): Viable systems have a (variable sized, but usually surprisingly small) sweet spot outside risk of ruin and somewhere under optimum f. (A few systems can be ‘overclocked’ / have limits pushed twd opt f, but they are rare. Running at optimal f is usually more like running at Maximum F'd ) See Money Management Strategies for Futures Traders Nauzer J. Balsara etc.
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another way of phrasing the question Without measurements would there be fractals?
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BlowFish, re “Hey Zdo I'd still be interested in how you think market data been generated by an auction precludes it from being a fractal?” (…Preface - these answers may disappoint. you were notified… ) For years, I stayed attenuated to ‘finding’ them in the market data / tracks / representations. Didn’t find them – motorway and Edgar Peters notwithstanding. So, on a whim, I stepped up the context and started asking about finding them in the process – while acknowledging it was my limited local personal experience of the (A)auction. My ‘assertion’ several posts ago was that I did not find fractal in the actual Auction and I did not find it in the tracks left by the auction either. In the end, it was a realization that I would have to exclude too much of my wisdom to ‘make fractaling work’ – why do that? re: I'd also be interested in how you define 'the auction'... the A word is as misused and over used as the F word imho " “We could intellectually dissect any particular thing for 10,000 years and not arrive at the truth of experiencing that thing.”Ya Mu I would also be interested in how I define 'the auction’ :doh: Same for the Market (the M) word. Is the M word as misused and over used as A and F? I trust my preverbal constructs of the A and the M enough to participate in them. I trust yours too… see Arthur Young Arthur M. Young: The Theory of Process etc I do not trust my preverbal constructs of F enough to participate in them... re: "Also worth repeating that the markets may well be fractal without being mathematical fractals (like coastlines). From a couple of things you said I guess you may well be talking about the latter." Yes No Both, Maybe… A possible corollary to my previously posted snippets in bold? - a ‘conceptual’ / non mathematical fractal does not a real fractal make . see questions at end… re; “Different terms of reference offer hamper understanding another point of view and I still am not sure exactly why you think the markets are not fractal.” But I do think fractals exist in the market. and But I understand that they don’t manifest in the market – at least for me. I now find myself “standing ok“in the tension right in the middle of these two ‘ways’… not compelled to manipulate the structural conflicts btwn the two possibilities. ...However, I am now freakin scared to include vibration, association / harmonics, and cycles in this conversation…so I won’t The questions I have today– Are (your / our) fractals ‘of’ / ‘in’ the measurements ? or Are (your / our) fractals ‘of’ / ‘in’ the phenomena?
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Have you checked Tom Demark's breakout setup's? Would post them but don't remember them... can dig them up if you can't find them... They might be too 'wide' for fx and / or your purposes...