zdo

it’s system(s) dependent … that's my broken record answer for 'every' question. Some types of systems must accept wider stop loss per entry, etc Some types of systems must tolerate deep(er) drawdowns than others, etc. The ‘mode’ for the universe of systems is clustered around 70% optimal-f. But it needs to be dialed in for each system because some types of systems can go much higher / closer to opt-f, etc. ie when testing 70% optimal f is a good place for your first ‘seed guess’ …

Position Changes: None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26) Still mumbling “soon” on shorting the YM, but simply have had no signals or even hints of setups… a long silver, short dow spread trade is the subject of this thread after all... fwiw and not directly related to this trade… Comments: Have been hedging derivative AG and SI positions. Two successful entries to date - one shown somewhere in another thread. Starting to lift some hedges now…. and plan to add more longs below 24.75 SI and whatever price AU is if and when SI is at 24.75 Comment: Yen shorting campaign is still in limbo… doing ok in other pairs (esp EJ) but USDJPY has gone no where…would still prefer original plan of the avg price of whole allocation to end up below 80… we’ll see. ie not predicting anything Comments: re: from 11/05/10 ‘dad blamed bush’ is going to drive the price of oil up again” That was code. I may never short oil again in the rest of my trading career – just flat or long… In reality it’s not quite yet, but as a powerful idea / concept, peak oil setting into collective mind Comment: re: “ Also of note: For the first year since I can’t remember when, I will not be using strict rule seasonals strategies in agricultural,etc futures” All trend trading…so far so good… beyond b.e. :missy: Comment: Several other trades simply didn’t report at the time and now, since I don’t see much usefulness in after the fact reporting, I’ll just not mention at all… ie Snowboarding is more fun than posting… etc Comment: cryptogon.com » Unverified: Swiss Bank Finally Handed Over Client’s Physical Gold After a Month Delay and Legal Threats Wonder why the banks have no trouble taking delivery ?? Hey this code bs is fun…:helloooo:

If he read this thread, what would Taleb say ? Pullling us back on topic a little bit, I think it's worth repeating (for only a few maybe) It's better to see gambling as a form of trading than to see trading as a form of gambling...

The first thought that opened for me was some material from Kenneth Reid from years ago about the ‘genetic types’ of traders “Type One Traders have a 68% chance of being wiped out; Type Two Traders have a 27% chance of losing all their capital; and, Type Three Traders have only a 5% chance of washing out.” It doesn’t appear he is still using the ‘genetics’ word – maybe that lead too many into thinking the chances of change were limited... (Rande, sorry to introduce a ‘competitor’ Trading psychology - Coaching for traders so early in this topic, but I’d bet both you guys need to be referring a certain % of your clients to each other anyway… I’m not endorsing his ‘typing’ btw. Don’t even really understand the specifics – but I do know he is getting at individuals' susceptibilities to your term, the 'caveman'…) The second thought I had was how many Type Two and Type Three traders simply cannot even conceive of the tendencies and experiences of Type One traders. Forum readers generally have to infer the ‘typing’ of posters, and see through the flamings and more subtle denigrations, etc. It might be more accurate and helpful to even say how amazing it is that each of the types has challenges in conceiving of the tendencies and experiences of the other types - limited the chances of assistance from 'higher' types and also limiting the possibilties of lower types resonating with or benefitting directly from modeling from higher types. Their whole (nervous system , etc) will simply have no concept of what to 'do' internally... Finally, I thought about my own process with this uncertainty issue. Alas, my journey was one of self guided desensitization – helped along significantly by realizing and applying the importance of ‘staying power’ capitalization and proper sizing and then later in the process by learning ways to clear the ‘circuitry’/ programming between the various levels, plus gradually learning the quality of a trade isn't very dependent on the qualities and accumulation of 'confirmations' in trading systems, etc . I applaud and appreciate you for offering others ways of shortening the development curve.

gandalf33, Thanks. Good points. They are getting a little bit away from making specific behavior pattern changes and more to longer timelines - but are part of big picture type of 'knowing what you want'. Long ago in the beginning, I went on multiple grail searches - for which I have zero regrets. Later, I also spent years in the wilderness - more than once – and for those I do have some regrets. It finally sank in to return to and stay true to my original vision of how I wanted to trade and the trader I wanted to be. In my own case that meant returning to giving priority to Market Typing first then to finding condition specific systems, methods, techniques etc. and sticking with the very difficult tasks of developing accurate real time measures of MarketTyping that worked for me. That 'return' cleared up a bunch of background structural conflict and made the day to day work and 'changes' much more straightforward. Many think I'm being unreasonably extreme advising noobies not to train using another's system(s). But, in all but a few cases, I think it stunts both explicit and implicit learning ... and only really nets the developing trader a small portion of an hour in the his or her process of accumulating that old rule of thumb 10000 hours...

certenotti, Kaizen is a 'japanese' concept for continual improvement that is mostly applied to production (which trading is not). The '-ee' was just me trashing perfectly good language... Am seeing no Private Messages from you in my inbox... zdo

re OP topic - Consider a ‘flip’ Gambling / gaming is sort of like trading. The actually randomly generated situations of gambling/gaming surrogate for the (not truly random, but) “random like” situations of real trading, etc… re: attracting ‘luck’ contrast keeping your attention on preferred results and discovering and practicing where to fine tune your focus for each stage of a process. with sustaining a string of ‘positive’ thoughts and affirmations Which do you think will be more effective long term? also re luck. Keep in mind there are multiple ‘kinds’ of luck, all with varying levels of possible ‘influence’.

One of my waking thoughts this morning was that this list needed a kaizen-ee pass through again for improvements, not really major changes… so here goes… 1) Know what you want 2) See what it is - for what it is 3) Raise your internal energy level and then practice the new change. 4) Fail successfully, then start all over again. Comments: The order of 1) and 2) was changed placing ‘Know what you want’ first so that ‘See what it is - for what it is’ could be particular to the wanted change at hand, instead of needing to have some universal accurate understanding of everything … however - wu wei - learning cycles go both directions so actually both orderings are correct… Ditto previous comments… Maybe more coming later on leveraging the ‘tensions’ in 4) Fail successfully, then start all over again. hth All the best, zdo

JBahn, All the books suggested so far are good books I’m sure, but the key is finding one that speaks to you deeply. Below are a few bit more esoteric suggestions. (These are not endorsements or testimonials for these (or any of the books others have listed). For example, I’m sure they are good books but I have had Kiev books on my shelves for decades and have, at most, only skimmed and maybe never even opened them. Same with Brett S.'s books...) Just trying to give you some options… Both these authors have similar path to yours - money managers turned increasingly solo. (But that doesn’t mean they will have sufficient compatibility with you – still hth) The Psychology of Technical Analysis: Profiting From Crowd Behavior and the Dynamics of Price (9781557385437) Tony Plummer See the chapter on fears, emotions, etc. Plummer also has a good article based on the enneagram re emotions, trading psychology, etc. The 21 Irrefutable Truths of Trading: A Trader’s Guide to Developing a Mind to Win (9780071357890): John H. Hayden The psychology section of this book is oriented toward ‘character / virtues’ based trading Also see The Secrets to Emotion Free Trading by Larry Levin Not even sure why anyone would really want emotion free trading but we know what he's getting at... Again, haven't read this... but it may help you... who knows? etc. You may find your best path is ‘off the ranch’ in content not specifically for traders. PM me if you want suggestions. hth. All the best. zdo

OP, The answer to your question – It’s system dependent. Every answer on the first page, except for Iris’s, was system dependent. Good ideas, but, unfortunately, not one answer acknowledged ‘system dependency’ or the type of system behind whether 'letting them run' or 'taking them' and a hybrid was best. Rough examples of system dependency: In pure trend following systems, you have to let profits run – because outliers are literally the edge. In quasi-trend trading systems, you have to test it out and like others have posted – go with the best one or with the hybrid that tests out. Most swing type, etc. etc etc systems will almost always test out best to take profits instead of staying…etc. hth

certenotti, re: “i hope to was been non-mental time-distorsion. ” certenotti, I read your post and I got to admit, it ‘was been a mental time distortion’ I’ll just make a few comments that hopefully will clarify and help and we’ll move on. re: 4) and “i think take what you learned from a loss,can be useful for yor next step or jump,trying to avoid to make the same mistake.nobody like to fai” How can you get to a place mentally where you are experiencing learning not a single thing from a loss? re: 3) and “ In a spirutual and healt benefiance is a very god thing,for the trading session,help me to understand in wich way the (i hope only positive energy)can change the things” Suggestion: Question ‘only positive’ re: 2) and “I'm conscious,and in the every way inconscious of what i want,but is also really that i meet difficult,reverse position” Polarities… see your PM. re: 1) and “but this is the initial thinking that everyone inconsciously take it for all the life,from 5 years even when we will die” etc. Much of this is learning to what to observe to ‘identity our identifications’ “you are maybe a possible wise” All the best, zdo

It’s hard to improve on the ‘lists’ provided above. Here is a ‘list’ with a couple of possibly pivotal enhancements, plus some comments. hth. 1) See what it is - for what it is 2) Know what you want. 3) Raise your internal energy level and then practice the new change. 4) Fail successfully, then start all over again. Some Comments 1) See what it is (whatever it is, at this point what needs change) for what it is – nonjudgementally and as objectively as possible. Someone said that all the ‘ways’ are either oriented to truth, beauty, and goodness. The ‘goodness’ way is currently in ascendancy, with a <10% of the population oriented to ‘beauty’ and only a tiny percentage oriented toward ‘truth’. This first list item is ultimately about making the ‘truth’ way more choicefully available when it’s needed. Paradoxically, it’s not about effortful seeking though – ie “Don’t seek the truth, just drop your opinions” some old zen jerk. 2) Know what you want. Identify what you want to change and identify what you want to change it to. Assume the courage to change the major things, like the things you know both your heart and head want, etc. Normal, healthy ways don’t need ‘changed’. Abnormal, blocked, unhealthy, maladaptive ways do need ‘changed’. Start freeing the ‘bound’ parts. Don’t disturb the adaptive parts. Disturb the disturbed parts. How precise and detailed must this vision be? Actually only as precise as needed for you to recognize it as complete if it were manifested right now. (ie don’t be discouraged by the hi res ‘visualization’ types…) This ‘knowing what you want’ is more than just a step in the process though. It is a way of being, a change in and of itself. In any performance work; be it relatively more ‘virtual’ (like trading and its gaming derivatives) or relatively more ‘physical’ (like combat and its sport derivatives), it can be quite difficult for most to genuinely and consistently stay focused on ‘what’s working?’ instead of ‘what’s wrong?’ or ‘what’s not working?’ – but that habit is the essence of embodying this step. "Master one thing, master ten thousand things." 3) Raise your internal energy level and then practice the new change. Omitting the raising of your energy level part puts insurmountable drag on many a good list and on many otherwise high-quality attempts to ‘change thyself’. 4) Fail successfully, then start all over again. Basically this is a ‘change’ that commits to never letting circumstances rule your spirit, a ‘change’ that commits to as many tries as it takes to establish the change. Each successful failure ends with a (not necessarily verbal) declaration like - “Start afresh! Hootless!” – which is basically an acknowledgement, but not focusing on, the virtually inevitable ‘baggage’ of memories and anxieties certenotti, let’s take a quick swing at your post re “how is possible remove the greed,if the same greed of money power move the market?” using this ‘list’… 1) what is… What are your own (the more speechlees the better btw) representations of the whole greed thing? Are any ‘mental time distortions’ in your representations? Right now, what is the best unanswerable question about the whole ‘greed’ issue you can come up with? Certain critical aspects of any collective situation remain ‘unmentionable’. For me, greed / unbalanced acquisitiveness, is actually fear based. It’s one of those ‘four rooted fears’. I didn’t start out believing that. It took me years to have, then to really ground, that insight; and then make real changed beliefs operational. For me the whole ‘greed’ issue has been supplanted by my patterns of stubbornness issues – yep more ‘four rooted fear’. I now actually look to be ‘greedier’ than the next guy AND to be as greedy as is balanced, while seeing the influence over my stubbornness (and/or my lack of influence and the damd costly symptoms) for what they are… Develop, and gradually hone, increasingly accurate internal representations of the ebb and flows of collective greed in relation to the ebb and flows of your own ‘greeds’ states and behaviors. This is entering into the fray of the mess of greed instead of building defenses against it…working in the flow of the ‘greed’ is a lot like a flowing tennis shot – swinging as hard as possible but not too hard, with serious effort in some muscle groups but also, the often unacknowledged / neglected, complete surrender of other muscle groups. 2) / “what I want’ - for me, it's flow --- to the point where the multi-level bound fear catch points that make the unconscious impulses to be stubborn / attached / greedy possible at all are truly cleared. For you or someone else, number 2) might be more ‘greed’ specific – like getting to the place (where greed is concerned), you are ‘playing them‘ instead of ‘being played’ by the whole greed mess. 3) is up the intensity and go for the change this trading session and 4) is start at a new / at least slightly modified number 1) again… Hope this impromptu application of the ‘list’ conveys the ideas and helps. (Major credit to one of my life coaches, Scott Sonnon, for his help with this 'list') Wishing you and yours all wonderful holidays.

Hi HardWorkingGuy, Maybe clarify how your post is on topic. Discussing the merits of whether to change thyself or not seems to be another topic. This topic is for those who see a need bound patterns etc. in their own dynamics...

jackb, it's system dependent. For example: over in Traders Logs http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f103/v-dow-spread-7706.html I have been loosely chronicling two trades. In the SI/Dow spread I put on shorts in the Dow in 25% increments (into strength and or weakness) of the total allocation to the trade (ie equal amounts). Also, (sort of off topic) am journaling a short Yen position, where the initial entries where only a tiny percentage of the size of the recent and any subsequent additional entries I will ideally do at lower levels… the result of progressive scaling is much lower average price than if it had been equal scaling in additions. (Note these long term trades are a work in progress…not playing to my typical strengths … that’s why I’m ‘journaling’ them some. ) In ndx day trading I do up to 7 equal sized entries (and btw don’t do them routinely but only under certain conditions…) hth

re "If the objective is to be out by the end of the day, then I prefer to admit failure as quickly as possible and start chopping. I would rather take the small loss and decide if i want to get back in higher or lower, " Yes. Many systems should simply be out way before price gets to a place where "doubling down" (and associated maneuvers) is considered. Example: Under certain conditions, PTJ would take a bunch of tiny losses, then load up. etc.

"...part of the plan..." or not Kiwi's first response to OP is the best. If 'doubling down' is part of the plan, the conditions triggering it, the number of times you would do it in a trade, etc are all pretty firmed up... re "before I could grab a quick profit" and "observed a bullish divergence and I decided to double up " and "put a hard stop " Yep, jack, it looks like Elder is shooting from the hip a little bit... but fx trading can be a little bit more amenable to that kind of 'looseness' (ie discretionary) for some. I know I trade ndx's way differently than I do fx's - systems, setups, triggers, w/l ratios, win loss sizes, how I 'define a loser', timeframes, and 'doubling down' / adding to position tactics, number of times I will add to a loser etc etc (7 total entries is my limit in ndx's, have total size limits but no max limit to number of entries in fx, etc.) Kiwi provided the keywords - "plan" and "stats". then with those as base, accumulate "experience". ...and, re 'emotional' if it is part of the plan for real, 'doubling down' / adding to the position 10 times and still getting stopped out on all of them shouldn't bother you in the least bit emotionally ... Also, I get suspicious of any 'doubling down' tactics where the object / intention is to 'get back to break even', etc. - although a few systems are amenable to it net net...

Again, the efficacy of ‘doubling down‘ into losses is very system dependent. (and btw adding to winners is a little bit off this specific topic) Be careful of any posts, including mine, that are putting out tactics as if they are ubiquitous across all systems without even a hint of the type of system being used. Blunt example of the system dependence – doubling down into retracements is generally were this works. However, double down against trends and see what happens! Different systems, different setups yield different appropriateness of doubling down. Even Elder needed to be more specific about the system beneath his tactic of doubling down when price neared his initial stop loss. In some systems that would work. In others it would not help, and in some it would actually lead to blowup… without giving us system properties it would even be ok to start withdrawing the benefit of the doubt and to start raising questions about his initial entry placements and order types, etc.

It's entirely system dependent. Some systems - Never! Some systems it's ok, even part of the game. For systems where it is ok, fully "Doubling down" is usually not the optimal concept. Adding to / building the position is a more accurate description of the proper maneveur. Also, generally speaking, this maneuver is best implemented where the fills are close by, generally in the same as yet incomplete small and short term swing. It is not recommended when there is already a large disparity btwn first fills and where price is now - ie if the original setup is no longer valid, if it's clearly a loser, de nile is rising, and you should have alreay stopped out. That’s what PTJ was talking about and if you haven’t been fortunate enough to fully learn that lesson yet, let me tell that is a wonderful way to pile a whole heap of sustained pain on yo own head...:helloooo: Find attached a recent example of what I think Elder is talking about. Yesterday, I put on a high leverage very short term hedge of a large percentage of my silver derivative long trades. (Several ‘cycles’ were completing but the tipping point for me was by chance walking by a TV at 5 am and overhearing the network talking heads yapping PM’s up “investors losing trust in yadayada and putting their trust in gold” etc etc. It was ‘intuitive’ - pls blve me, I rarely of rarely of rarely ever use broadcast media for cues) Anyway, the bottom triangle was a mkt order fill at around 29.99. The square above it was a “doubling down” limit order placed shortly after the market fill. The right upper triangle was the fill of the limit at around 30.16 in the next 15 minutes bar. All fills within the same small swing / setup is what I think Elder is talking about generally… don’t think he’s talking about doing the first entry then doubling down if price then proceeded to 31 ( or to generalize, past where should already be stopped out ) . I do similar much shorter time frame type 'doubling down' / position building in the indexes in certain conditions. Happens roughly 3 of the days of any week... may post an example if I have time... Again - It's entirely system dependent.... in addition the key word in Elder's article is "...experienced... "

Drummond is one of those niche methods where the odds are you would purchase and study its ways and then it not turn out to be a match for you personally. Them's the odds - but you may be the exception... A while back there was some activity re Drummond. Maybe contact some of those posters privately and see if they can provide you with enough info to ascertain whether or not it lines up with your true nature... because if it doesn't line up with your true nature you could absolutely master the method and still end up dropping it, etc... If it continues to tug at you maybe make a plan to buy the info out of trading profits instead of out of your current trading stake... in the meantime, I'll tell you what I tell everyone else - find your own way. Knowledge and methds from others is good but unfortunately it doesn't leverage up as much in the long run as beginners initially project... ie if I had a naya paisa for every high priced and low price method I bought back in the day I would have a small pile of rupees ... I don't discount the experiential value purchasing those methods added to my life - but in hindsight few of them contributed any real value to my ultimate development as a trader and, like recreational drugs, etc. some of them where significant detriments... find your own way...I would even go so far as to advise you to kill any and all 'find a guru' impulses you may experience . Brutal but hth

Position Changes: None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26) … ditto again fwiw and not directly related to this trade… Comment: In outright AG and SI positions I have decided to start taking profits at near dollar increments from $41 up to $50 oz (3 % of net position each time for a total of 30% of whole position). Probably do the equivalent in AU but haven't decided at this point in time... Comment: Yen shorting campaign sort of in limbo. Avg price is just north of 82 USDJPY and if it proceeds upward from here or as low as from around Nov lows, will start scaling out at around 84.90 USDJPY . But - would much prefer to continue buying USDJPY at much lower levels to establish a sub 80 avg price for a longer holding period… we’ll see… Comment: Also of note: (For the first year since I can’t remember when,) I will not be using strict rule seasonals strategies in agricultural,etc futures this year. This has quite a bit of personal significance because since long ago seasonal trading provided the structure and financial support for me to stay in the game long enough to develop and learn how to day trade. Comment: Washington's Blog

Many say take care of the conscious and known well and let the unconscious and unknown take care of itself. And that works, particularly if one is well adjusted and has had good passage through development and a lack of significant trauma, etc… But there is vastly more to us than what we consciously experience (and identify with). Various names, compatible with whatever model of self is at hand, for them are parts, sub personalities, schemas, archetypical patterns, entities and other (misleading) labels. They also extend into and include ‘nerve’ and ‘heart’ and ‘guts’ and ‘muscle memories’. yada yada psycho bubble Point is – for this topic – if a quorum of these _________(user labeled naming) ‘associates’ rights and wrongs, wins and losses, victories and defeats, * lucks and no lucks with DEATH itself then you ‘naturally’ will have trouble pulling the trigger. imho, to put this behind you, one generally has to go well beyond what at first feels like a resolution. In addition to something like Rande’s relatively more structured process for working with these issues, also commit to a more unstructured process of day to day, in the moment nonjudgmental mindfulness of body states, mind contents, loves, character, etc - with emphasis / work on bringing things to awareness more than working on ‘changing’ attitudes, beliefs, states, etc … hth * and yes, in this work you need to make clear distinctions between losses and defeats (and also btwn wins and victories)

I skimmed your ‘plan’. The only suggestion I would offer is to go live out the gate and stay live your whole trading ‘career’ and never touch sim. There are sufficient mini instruments for this now and even though the costs may be higher, if you're actually tough enough it's not a factor. It will enhance your screen time training, etc. especially with some poker experience to draw on. I know that’s not the consensus advice and this will most likely evoke some screams…but ironically the ratio of those who support it to those who advise sim sim sim is about the same as the ratio of those who thrive at trading to the losers and loosers… hm All the best, zdo

OP, when I sit down to live poker, online poker, and a trader station my subjective experience is different for all three. Other posters are covering the similarities (EV, MM, modulating emotions, etc, etc.) quite well. But, again, the qualities are different for me – before,during, and after ‘play’. >Some of it is from the subjective utilities of the differing thinking processes btwn the games. In poker, my focus turns to include more of how individuals and the table as a small group is acting. In trading the group is too large for that – it’s more evaluations of large, cyclic / temporary factions, etc – so my focus is more on the fluid dealing, the ‘cards’ if you will, and my (computerized, visual mostly) representations of the auction than on people. Maybe that’s some of what you were getting at in your ‘math’ topic. >Some of this is from a personal viewpoint that emerged with continuing ascendancy when I was giving gaming vs trading a lot of thought many years ago. This viewpoint is that gaming is a substitute, a verisimilar, a proxy for trading. From this perspective, gaming is portable, pretend trading. Each different game has some replacement role for real trading…. with poker emphasizing cloaking positions and deceit more than most other gaming games. Trading has many more ways and methods from which to come at it than poker, ie more options of how to process and evaluate the current situation and opportunities and risks at hand – basically bcse substitutes for trading will have structural and discrete limits as they are not continuous, etc., in gaming, the ‘data streams’ are principally generated randomly instead of by humans like in trading, etc. > And, some of these differences are from past (both simple and complicated) associations… Two extreme cases: My neighbor and friend eats and breathes poker and maybe does 10 stock trades a year (with good skill transference btw) I eat and breathe trading and play poker only a few times a year (also with good skill transfer) So it really distills down to which one you are able to master and enjoy most. hth

"this is a discussion forum" now devoid of levity "for crying out loud" Admin, please remove all the happy smilies - they are no longer needed...Thanks

Position Changes: None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26) Comments: Ditto again… will be legging into short YM side of this spread ‘soon’… and will be using these experimental StayLines for stop loss placements… fwiw and not directly related to this trade… Comments: Re: From last post “In outright AG and SI trades, per plan, will continue buying to around 24 and then start ‘hedging’ whole position…” Silver buying is complete. . Will ‘hedge” physical and far out futures Silver positions with stops in close by futures clustered just under equivalent of 23 cash... and may move that cluster down into (some) 'space' (below 21.75)... Also, now at 100% allocated to AU and derivative positions. I plan to 'trade' the corrections in AU derivatives and attempt to buy back at lower levels if and when $ rallies instead of doing a 'hedge' strategy in AU like in AG Comments: Still scaling into a fairly large position short Yen. AveragePrice jumping on down now. Next fill would be bigger than size of first 7 buys combined… Comments: 'dat dag blamed bush’ is trying to drive the price of oil up again Comments: I know. What a boring log...