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zdo
Market Wizard-
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Everything posted by zdo
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Much of this can be attributed to changes in the markets and auctions themselves… so much that the very CENTER of my trading approach is MarketTyping(tm zdo). For a longer term example, while I have these personal cycles with bonds also; imo, the auctions in bonds have become much more ‘institutional’ since around the mid 90’s than they were in the mid 80’s (back when ‘real men trade bonds’ really meant something ). The indexes provide a much much faster alternation – often hours or less in one type and rarely more than a couple of days. Also, my personal synch cycles with the indexes are measured in X days hooked up, y days unhooked, instead of in months like with FX.
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Steven, re "then it abandoned me" Isn't it amazing how that happens. When I first started trading FX (we're talking futures, late 80's) I was so hooked up with USDJPY for a while. Then it abandoned me. ...Moved on successfully to USDCHF, and that one 'stayed with me' a lot longer than did USDJPY, but the synched up quality was never the same. Honestly, after all those years and even though the USDJPY has come back around for me several times since, I'm still not over that first USDJPY loss of resonance... I suspect that probably says somthing about my neuroses and attachment style
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"Being mindful that a silent internal dialog is defending against repeating emotional distress experienced in the past" ??? Being mindful that a silent internal dialog is is being mindful that a 'silent' internal dialog is. Have a great Holiday all...
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iwshares, I like Oanda. Have had an account with them a long time. Reliable, fair costs, good customer service, overall platform is good, great reporting but charting just barely up to snuff,.etc. - High recommendation for beginning traders. Start live from day one instead of doing all the sim crap. (ie -noobies! Sim after you know how to trade! Not before!) only con: In my experiences comparing side by side feeds (currenex, etc), I think they 'slide' more than they should in fast markets. But certain techniques can actually take advantage of those departures so ... I use them for fractional positions mostly. The 'infinite' sizing is great for precise MM Also use them when I can't get business done at the 'banks' hth
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re "internal dialog " What about all the 'parts' that are mute ?
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... any pair with a spread <= 3.0 Currently 15+ pairs. Many of them are correlated but even among those, at any given time, one (or two) will be the best 'technically', one(or two) will be the best 'symetrically', and one(or two) will have the best 'volatility', etc.
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correction - evidently TS has dropped charging commissions on FX trading .... spread only now Now if they would only get rid of the fractional pips on the Matrix. Or even better, allow user defined parameters of the intervals. re: "Regardless, I still pay my monthly TS fee since I love the charting if not the trading. " Steven, why don't you just have an account there, then there is no monthly fee. I think they have even dropped the minimum turns per month stuff... just saying
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Personally, I love TS charting and 'analytics' ... have used it from the beginning in early 90's ... But I avoid using TS as an FX broker because - Gain feed (still?) + spread + high commissions + matrix scrolls by smallest decimal(still?) = unpleasant trading for me I would not use TS at all if I were outside the US. TS cuts and runs at the first sign of regulatory or costs trouble for them offshore... example they just up and left Canada a couple years ago... ie keep shopping for best brokers and platforms there... check MultiCharts if you like TS features, language, etc... hth
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... still not in as of Friday but have placed entry stops below as a contingency fwiw and not related to this thread ... am now also implementing 3% per dollar move plan in silver from post 43. Trailing stops in 'space' behind gold. In the short yen position, plan is to liquidate around USDJPY 88 (and equivalent in correlated positions). A small profit is locked in below ie would not and should not let position ever go into red going forward... True to 'biology' - I think mostly because it is such a huge position, but it is tempting to take profits now... especially the way the USSD is acting Ya'll have a great hyperinflationary and creeping deflationary weekend.
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Precisely! Gaming is around the circle or table pretend trading. Instead of outcomes being determined by the global mkt, chance is conveniently substituted. The flow of play and strategies involved for each game of 'gaming' is limited to recreating certain real life market and trading situations. The games of 'gaming' one enjoys and is competent at can tell a lot about what style of trading he should go toward etc... Professional gamblers are actually not gamblers at all. They are traders adept at on the fly assesment of probabilities, other gamers, and sizing decisions... these days particularily, the level of skill and the individual's intrinsic rewards of that middle proficiency, reading others, determines whether or not they play at the tables or at the screen
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If we folks gave you the impression that it is more "under control" than a very human series of temporary, tenuous 'under controls', the mistake is ours. Don't let our 'rantics' dissuade you from making your valuable contributions. ... and now continuing 'as you were'... Normal is terribly deterministic... what is helpful at one stage ( mantras, etc. such as 'treat trading as a business' , or 'keep it simple' ) will need to be dropped to get to the top... "... how to be aware in a situation that requires your unawareness, how to be conscious in a situation that happens only in unconsiousness..."
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steve46, This is precisely what I mean by "find your own way" zdo. You’re sharing an edge and that’s great. But - if you were to ‘edgucate’ a thousand ‘traders’, I would bet only 1 or 2 of them stick precisely to that edge… ultimately the person and the edge must resonate. I’m going to keep telling traders to find their own edge that is true to their own nature. “people quite whining” and “fitting themselves to the job at hand” is to be controlled by circumstances and that will not work to sustain one into the higher percentiles of traders – ever! Trading is performance work not production work… This could be posted over to the why 90% are either loosers or losers thread… re backtesting – good points. However, re “most … don't have nearly the education required” - in testing (especially for automation), experience is more important than education. zdo
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re "Show me one answer above or on any other site that shows you how to get an edge. Not one of them does. Why? Because it is not possible. You will get generalities, opinions, psychology, money management, stories, etc. No where will you find an edge." I see posts like “no edges are disclosed anywhere” or “it’s very hard without a mentor” There is a largely ignored reason the ‘industry’ has hooked up with the holy grail myth. Grail seekers are looking out there, to the other, whatever, for answers. The myth is about looking in all the wrong places. At any point, you can search ‘inside’ for the answers. “Find your own way.” That means realize that even if you were handed a highly profitable edge on a freakin silver platter, you would not make it work for you - unless by some small chance it was very compatible with your own nature. Kudos for being fed up with the BS. “Find your own way.”
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Position Changes: None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26) Comments: But not ditto again… soon is now... will be legging into short YM side of this spread over next ten days - preferably into strength... four more years left in this campaign... fwiw and not related to this thread Comments: Still inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions. As my boy D. Gartman says ~ "the easy money in this pm move is probably close to over"
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re "execute the strategy with precision & commitment, but keep your eye on the objective" ?? The underlying thread of this thread seems to be more like let the objective take care of itself, keep your eye on and execute the strategy with precision & commitment, ... one of the better ways to play most 'games'
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Firm, The crowd will tell you "as simple as possible" A few will tell you complex 'problem' require complex 'solution' My thoughts - Your edges should be as simple or complex as you personally need them to be to stay true to your own nature. Find your own way! Have you read http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/edge-first-integration-first-both-first-8410.html ? Applying is not easy at all - but you may be ready...hth All the best zdo
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"... our understanding of how the brain produces mind." Brain produces mind? Beware - that new paradigm could be one of those massively limiting blfs...
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Thanks Rande. Great post. This 'validation' issue is part and parcel of why I bang on and on at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/edge-first-integration-first-both-first-8410.html PS just an aside into humans... I stay amazed at how low awareness of this is with traders... even with those who assert how 'independent' they are... The one's for who this has never been an issue are the ones mostly likely to discount it ... On another hand, many ostensibly normal ppl are so deeply 'in', you could actively confront them with it and they still wouldn't immediately, if ever, come into any awareness of their external validation orientations
- 21 replies
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- fear
- peak performance
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jaysmith124, re: " am going to start taking my medication soon. If ..." Do you really need meds that bad?
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Position Changes: None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26) fwiw and not related to this thread Comments: Inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions now. Highest orders up to around 35.39 in silver but in gold they are all still stuck below 1378 Comment: Yen shorting campaign. Average price now well under 80 on the USDJPY long position… not exactly under ideal conditions (for the Japanee) … wishing them all the best over there. very interesting... http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-03/acs-dot031811.php
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Is Trading a Perfect or Imperfect Information Game?
zdo replied to tacdog's topic in General Trading
Imperfect. "history" is one way of looking at the incompleteness of data. For me, it's more accurate to look at it in terms of "representations" we each build of the actual auctions in process. The data itself is always incomplete, the tools we use to build visuals, etc.etc. , our brain balance in constantly rebuilding consistent and accurate perceptual 'maps' - with, as Qiman just discussed, the inevitability of some degree of bias -
Steve, "I just reviewed my CQG software....no supply/demand indicator I reviewed my Esignal softwarre.....no supply/demand indicator I reviewed Sierra Charts list of technical studies....no supply/demand indicator" I reviewed my TradeStation softwarre.....it has a supply/demand indicator! Made it myself... Works almost as good as wetware...
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“TRO - what you have done on this thread is spread your own thread all over the top of this one” Ingot, no one, no one, can NOT spread their own ‘thread’ all over the top of this one Nothing ‘scientific’ is going on here Ingot. Even if you could get a good sample of ‘traders’ in agreement to utilize those three indicators, it would not mean in any way that they would be on the same page with you on your 3 indicators. Just within a small sample of traders, a literal infinity of systems would emerge and mutate… I’m not saying this is a waste of your time at all, just pointing the dangers of assuming something ‘scientific’ is happening … Also, there is no pathology involved in any setups you may be investigating. Each one either profits or it doesn’t… welcome to the anti lab
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Since we’re insisting on staying barely on topic --- Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com A great mentor will tell you nothing...
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One of the pivotal ‘moments’ of my trading development was when it clicked at an operational level that trading is best seen as “Predator vs Predator” (zdo) instead of predator vs prey…. Direct side benefit - instantaneous resolution of the largest part of those mostly enculturation based ‘moral’ issues … OP it’s excellent that you’re confronting this. Many traders never even get into awareness of how that enculturation is conditioning/limiting their trading…as you get to know them you can start picking up the subtle suppressions diverting and wasting their energies… hth
- 20 replies
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- opportunistic
- predator
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