zdo

Hedge back on. Filled on hedging shorts this am at 37.61 avg price Just following the plan... don't have much subjective confidence this will be one of those great momentous trades

1. How do you identify a slow, choppy market? This might seem too obvious, but I'm interested to see your thought process. I don't discuss my MarketTyping techniques for identifying and classifying congestion, but in my 'thought process' it has always been of extreme importance to id it early. Published material on the topic is limited. If you haven't read the works of Joe Ross on the topic, The Law of Charts 'book' (if I remember correctly) is a good starting place for objective price pattern measures of "slow, choppy market" on any timeframe. There is also some follow-up material at The law of ledges, congestion, and trading ranges | Trade2Win Forums etc If I remember correctly Ross made some contributions to the thread. TL has a few other threads on the topic...search. ... and the TS forum has some good / different / insightful material... Long ago and before I got all 'complicated' with it, I used a Jurik MA (with inputs of (h+l+c+c+c)*.2, for price and a length of 4 periods) on a 4 minute chart on most instruments (big S&P, US, etc.) for an objective measure. When it went flat instead of rolling on over... very accurate going into and out of congestion with very little lag... 2. How do you trade them? Do you simply avoid them and wait for volatility to pick back up? Early detection is the key. Ultimately, for me at least, including more than one type of congestion is important too (low interest vs tense types, etc). I use envelopes to trade them selling the top and buying the bottom with very small stops. Because of MarketTyping and from developing techniques for leading identification of when a congestion is likely to end, accuracy is almost 90% W/L (as it must be for such systems, btw) The envelopes started out as Keltners, but the code has evolved so much over the years that there is nothing keltner about them inside (even though most of the time they still look like Keltners . .. it's now those times when they don't look like Keltners that differentiates them). re: "Do you simply avoid them ...? " Most traders I know study them and conclude "Too much trouble... and limited rewards" It's system dependent really. Many systems need to avoid them like the plague... 3. Do you raise your size? What is your money management like? I raise size for the systems that are designed for congestion and cut size significantly for those that are designed for other MarketTypes. For some subtypes of congestion, I do just barely reduce overall size. I also decrement size after each trade (and increment size for breakout/ acceleration systems in some conditions) hth stim some innovations for you.

The rule that has saved me the most money = take small losses. (ie the rule that has cost me the most accounts = don’t take small losses) Breaking the phrase up: The ‘take’ part means getting to a place where taking any loss (in all but a few cases) does not move any of my biometric or subjective (SUD) measures at all. When individual losses do finally become truly da nada / meaningless – whole new opportunity horizons open up in the game. The most obvious application of the ‘small losses’ part in most systems is never hanging on for a loser to come back. Set a dropdead out point. If it passes that point, eat it gratefully and gracefully. Generally the best, but certainly not easy, way to apply this rule is researching and testing the very best type of loss levels to take for each individual system. For each system there is a best near or far, dynamic or fixed, single or arrayed, etc or etc. stop that needs to obliterate any and all ‘comfort level’ urges, impulses, tendencies, whatnot! Further developing the concept (in some systems) means getting enough experience to be able to call a loser by its activity instead of its price level and exit before stop is hit. In one of my edges, since the profits take care of themselves, getting out and cancelling the stops before they are hit is actually the main focus of each trade in that system…

Yes. The player bringing the best combination of stronger, faster, more mentally focused and resiliance will win in any performance type of work/play - period. Yes. Again. In any performance type of work/play such as trading, when the stronger, faster, more mentally focused and resiliant player goes up against other stronger, faster, more mentally focused and resiliant players - the edge becomes "unimaginable amount of hard work and experience". - period. No. Highest level performance does not require being taught by "the best". Highest level coaching relationships are more a matter of a spectrum of compatibilties between the two than they are a factor of the consensus reputation of the quality of the coach. "The best" teachers/coaches have a broad general understanding of what to bring a player's focus to - but a 'compatible' teacher/coach will be able to bring the player's focus to the very specific things the player needs to focus on better than a "the best" coach can...

carlton,re "but can you help me or no?" I can only try . Basically, I'm encouraging you to delve a little bit more deeply into mm and sizing Let me rephrase my suggestions and see if that helps. But first a question - do you understand the difference between variable sizing and fixed sizing and how in the quote below you are switching from variable to fixed? Your previous method will not transfer directly. The only thing that can transfer is the preferred amount at risk per trade approach ( which I argue against below). So, with one contract, by whatever method the amount is derived - if you are using a dollar amt. stop, then simply divide that $ amt at risk by 5 and that's how many ticks away from your entry to place your stop. Now to rephrase Suggestion 1 was a more general trading suggestion to base placing your stops in the neighborhood of what has tested out to be the best stop method for your particular trading system instead of placing your stops on how much you are comfortable losing (ie syschological reasons). If you transfer the "Now if I wanted to risk say $100 " way of setting risk over to one contract YM trading, you might get lucky enough to put your stops close to where they actually should be and survive - but I doubt very seriously that approach would thrive. Suggestion 2 was simply pushing you to delve a little bit more deeply into mm and sizing on your own All the best, zdo

and just for snicks Scientists Afflict Computers with Schizophrenia to Better Understand the Human Brain | The University of Texas at Austin

re “how relate the above risk management to futures, mini-sized DOW?” As you have described it, you are switching from variable sizing with stocks to fixed sizing with YM. So, you will have to change the way you determine your “risk” The ‘guidance’ I would offer you 1. also switch from ‘how much I willing to lose/risk on a trade” to “the tested optimal amount to lose per trade specific to the system I am trading” 2. one contract trading is a tough game to win at. Consider, if you have the capital, re-introducing sizing calculations ie multiple contracts, into the mix… hth zdo

MMS, Was in here Sunday morning waiting for a tee time and was thumbing through J.M.Hurst's book and thought of you when I read this… ” nothing new… TadeWinds summarized it even better above... just confirms… leverage up that “scanning”!

tradergurl re: "Anyone do yoga regularly?" Bikram Yoga once or twice a week Prasara Yoga once or twice a week Indispensible to health and performance - period. btw, those two forms are among the most physically demanding yogas... ie if you settle for less ( like for some tame little 'western' yoga class) , then less is about all you can expect... TN, See Yoga - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia etc etc btw, (and evidenced in that article to some degree) the ‘west’ has so bought into the ‘nameste’ / peace and light images of yoga that the ‘fighting’ part is rarely mentioned. Any of the yoga’s, (whether it be the hatha yogas for a more secular day to day flow or the highest spiritual yoga’s) when properly practiced, involve bringing the just right for the moment balance of extertion and surrender. hth

TradeWinds pretty much nailed it with "Make sure your right. :rofl:" I would also add: Be ready to get up on the wheel and drive it manually. Attached is an example of ‘layering’ to exit a high leverage hedge in silver last Thu and Fri where the lowest limit was ‘layered’ too far. Squares are buy limit orders ( the ‘layering’). First three triangles are fills. Last triangle (chronologically/on the right) was going to mkt order to make sure all out by weekend (and pink square is cancel of lowest limit order.)

Sounds' like you have too much time on your hands... It's system and mkt condition dependent. A few systems get incremental but significant returns by 'laying in'. You'd have to test it out. If the instrument you're trading is currently showing lower 'volatility' / movement then it's a good idea to 'layer' inside like you described. If movement is higher, then 'layering' outside may be indicated. My term for this is 'arraying orders' and I do it with several systems ( and btw, actually do it more for stop losses than for entries). For me, best results for this technique are with mean reversion type systems in conditions of screaming extreme outliers.

Preface: The perspective from which my response is coming = ADHD. Don’t know which type or mixture of types of ADHD it is and it’s not serious enough to require medication (which I would resist anyway), but it does result in tendencies that I have had to grow and develop. I used to ‘fight’ with it. Then I started to see the advantages and opportunities nascent in that cluster of traits. That’s how I relate to “It appears I may be lacking focus and always jumping onto the next thing” . The best thing I can say is that’s just the way some people are! Find a way to leverage it! Also, it mellows with age… instead of forgetting a mkt when I took a position off, hell I used to put positions on and then forget them - for weeks once when I had originally planned to hold it for less than 24 hours. Over the years, a rough schedule evolved to accommodate these tendencies and roughly 2 hour ‘focus and energy’ limits in my trading. Early AM – Forex ‘scanning’ (your word not mine ~16 instruments on .5 to 4 hr charts 9 – 11 AM – my am daytrading session in ndxs. Only work one mkt, but sometimes add NQ trades 11 - whenever – typically ‘scanning’ / working longer term trades unless conditions are compelling to stay in the daytrading session all day… I can enjoy two or three of those a month, then it gets old. 2 - 4 PM If I’m still around, more day trading. Always seem to “jump onto” looking at financial for good setups After 4 PM + if I open a platform, it’s usually to lift FX trades or move orders, but occasionally will trade for a while if it happens to be a particularly active asian session. Post Japan earthquake good recent example of that... For most traders, the stock advice would be to focus on one niche (and maybe automate the 'scanning') For you , re “Are you focused in a niche and dive deep into it or are you scanning for trades everywhere” my answer to you is Find a way to do BOTH! Hope this is helpful...

Short Apple now! Could it be worth it?

As I alluded to on the first page of this thread - silver is a bullet, but silver is not a train. I have orders in to cover most of my hedging shorts starting at ~ 34.75 ... but would not be surprised to see it go much lower... would enjoy seeing $24 again... just for snicks and giggles... remember when silver was under $3 oz?

Applying the underlying principles of NeuroLinguisticProgramming is the absolute best thing a very tiny percentage of traders can do to improve their trading... For another minor percentage, it is marginally helpful... And for all the rest - it's useless jmho

J.M. Hurst has one of the best 'explanations' of the pattern I have ever seen / used. re: "So how useful is the head and shoulders pattern today?" And in that context, it's as useful as it ever was. ie It 'succeeds' as much as it ever did... and it 'fails' as much as it ever did...

a quote from their home page --- "start meetings directly from the comfort of your home. In a world where everything is focused on feeling good about one self and others." so re your ? "It can be done?" = For traders, probably not...

Thanks for the feedback. My reactions… re “Stroop effect shown nullified by hypnotic linguistic suggestions” ?? More accurate might be “Stroop effect shown nullified by ‘presence’ and interaction.” re “Some non-conscious parts of the brain can and do use language” That “Some” is still extremely miniscule in my view. re “Placebo effects are strong evidence that non conscious parts of the brain do process verbal linguistic information” that’s a stretch… a big stretch… re “willfully want it to work” Willfully wanting it to work is a factor but not major factor… transitions to the issue of ‘highly hypnotizable individuals’ / the ‘highly suggestible’ …which unfortunately transitions to this pivotal issue – the ‘highly suggestible’ are even less likely to retain changes produced from what I called all this ‘verbal crap’ than are the ‘lowly suggestible’. Specific to NP, to me this means, bignore the “subliminal / suggestion / self-hynosis / affirmation” features of the product… even if you were lucky enough to find the right agent voices for yourself, ultimately the returns from the additional ‘crap’ would still be relatively low …here we go again… just because neuroscience is all new and au currant doesn’t make it ‘right’… I personally have some serious questions about basic assumptions of the whole field… and have accepted that I may not live long enough to see the fad fade…

it's a 3 part series... I still wonder how all those rail cars got scattered all over the place to begin with...

ccsli, What measure of volatility do you want to use? zdo

Me? Smart money? I think the "Smart money plays the big trend, not the gyrations" part disqualifies me using those measures. Article infers investors are smart, traders are dumb. Maybe he never saw the Market Wizards books, etc. Haven't enjoyed it, but I've done well across all the years trend and seasonal trading. But my forte has always been much shorter term trading. Per some of those other criterea, like "Smart money sees trends others don't. " I am now starting to allocate some in very illiquid investments, (not trades?) I nominate MightyMouse's "smart money is smart because they can get out of a losing position quicker than dumb money and smart money stays in a winning position longer than dumb money." for post of the month!

Ever wonder what would happen if you just faded these oanda ratios? (btw mfx, let us know if you don't want discussion cluttering up your thread. thx)

Position Changes: None. Still long Silver, Still trailing entry stops up under YM to go short net 25% allocated. fwiw and not related to this thread Comments: Still inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions now. Still taking 3% off the table in AG each ~ dollar move up. (eBay is a great place to sell physical silver now – they pay over spot and also pay shipping… hm) May hedge everything at 52 and equivalent in AU at that time... Comments: (and definitely not related to this trade…) getting short cotton for a year or so…

Yep http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f103/v-dow-spread-7706.html But - better late to the party than never ??? I'm taking profits now. Stopped buying at 24... MMS, not to go all 'autrian econ' on you but ... do you have thoughts on the Gold/Silver ratio? At this point, that seems to me like a far more prudent trade to bring your readers attn to than outright AG trading... that is unless they are prepared to manage and thrive through a possible correction down to 32 ish The Real Gold/Silver Ratio Part II - SilverSeek.com etc etc

Magnus, What is your need? Do you have a certain way of charting that none of the other (large or small) platform providers offer? etc?